title: Combining early markers strongly predicts conversion from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer's disease.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The utility of combining early markers to predict conversion from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's Disease (AD) remains uncertain.
  
  
  METHODS
  Included in the study were 148 outpatients with MCI, broadly defined, followed at 6-month intervals. Hypothesized baseline predictors for follow-up conversion to AD (entire sample: 39/148 converters) were cognitive test performance, informant report of functional impairment, apolipoprotein E genotype, olfactory identification deficit, and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) hippocampal and entorhinal cortex volumes.
  
  
  RESULTS
  In the 3-year follow-up patient sample (33/126 converters), five of eight hypothesized predictors were selected by backward and stepwise logistic regression: Pfeffer Functional Activities Questionnaire (FAQ; informant report of functioning), University of Pennsylvania Smell Identification Test (UPSIT; olfactory identification), Selective Reminding Test (SRT) immediate recall (verbal memory), MRI hippocampal volume, and MRI entorhinal cortex volume. For 10% false positives (90% specificity), this five-predictor combination showed 85.2% sensitivity, combining age and Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) showed 39.4% sensitivity; combining age, MMSE, and the three clinical predictors (SRT immediate recall, FAQ, and UPSIT) showed 81.3% sensitivity. Area under ROC curve was greater for the five-predictor combination (.948) than age plus MMSE (.821; p = .0009) and remained high in subsamples with MMSE > or = 27/30 and amnestic MCI.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The five-predictor combination strongly predicted conversion to AD and was markedly superior to combining age and MMSE. Combining the clinically administered measures also led to strong predictive accuracy. If independently replicated, the findings have potential utility for early detection of AD.
authors: Division of Geriatric Psychiatry, New York State Psychiatric Institute, College of Physicians and Surgeons, Columbia University, New York, New York 10032, USA. dpd3@columbia.edu
authors: Davangere P
authors: DP
authors: Devanand
authors: Xinhua
authors: X
authors: Liu
authors: Matthias H
authors: MH
authors: Tabert
authors: Gnanavalli
authors: G
authors: Pradhaban
authors: Katrina
authors: K
authors: Cuasay
authors: Karen
authors: K
authors: Bell
authors: Mony J
authors: MJ
authors: de Leon
authors: Richard L
authors: RL
authors: Doty
authors: Yaakov
authors: Y
authors: Stern
authors: Gregory H
authors: GH
authors: Pelton
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000465:Algorithms; D000544:Alzheimer Disease / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000209:etiology* / Q000523:psychology*; D003072:Cognition Disorders / Q000150:complications* / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000523:psychology*; D018450:Disease Progression; D005260:Female; D006624:Hippocampus / Q000473:pathology; D006801:Humans; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009483:Neuropsychological Tests; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012372:ROC Curve; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D013223:Statistics as Topic; D018709:Statistics, Nonparametric