The future of the nation-state in an era of globalization.
This article uses the business management technique of scenario planning to look at how the global order could evolve. It speculates on four 'futures': a continuation of the current order, so that much of what we currently see will continue well into the future ('Steady State'); greater international co-operation via a strengthened United Nations ('World State'); the continued decline of national governments in the running of economies with transnational corporations filling the vacuum ('Earth Inc'); and a breakdown in both the system of nation-states and transnational corporations with greater chaos at the national and international levels ('Wild State'). Scenario planning is not about picking winners (that is, prediction) but in encouraging people to think beyond the current situation. The article is intended to encourage more discussion on the long-term future of global governance.
Suter
Keith
K
Futures Foundation Australia. keith.suter@wesleymission.org.au