Is sustainability achievable? Exploring the limits of sustainability with model systems.
Successful implementation of sustainability ideas in ecosystem management requires a basic understanding of the often nonlinear and nonintuitive relationships among different dimensions of sustainability, particularly the system-wide implications of human actions. This basic understanding further includes a sense of the time scale of possible future events and the limits of what is and is not likely to be possible. With this understanding, systematic approaches can then be used to develop policy guidelines for the system. This article presents an illustration of these ideas by analyzing an integrated ecological-economic-social model, which comprises various ecological (natural) and domesticated compartments representing species along with a macroeconomic price setting model. The stable and qualitatively realistic model is used to analyze different relevant scenarios. Apart from highlighting complex relationships within the system, it identifies potentially unsustainable future developments such as increased human per capita consumption rates. Dynamic optimization is then used to develop time-dependent policy guidelines for the unsustainable scenarios using objective functions that aim to minimize fluctuations in the system's Fisher information. The results can help to identify effective policy parameters and highlight the tradeoff between natural and domesticated compartments while managing such integrated systems. The results should also qualitatively guide further investigations in the area of system level studies and policy development.
Shastri
Yogendra
Y
Vishwamitra Research Institute, Center for Uncertain Systems: Tools for Optimization and Management (CUSTOM), 368, 56th Street, Clarendon Hills, IL-60514, USA.
Diwekar
Urmila
U
Cabezas
Heriberto
H
Williamson
James
J
D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D004463:Ecology; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011158:Population Growth