title: Pre-teen insulin resistance predicts weight gain, impaired fasting glucose, and type 2 diabetes at age 18-19 y: a 10-y prospective study of black and white girls.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Identifying early pre-teen predictors of adolescent weight gain and the development of impaired fasting glucose (IFG) and type 2 diabetes (T2DM) at age 18-19 y could provide avenues for prevention.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  We evaluated possible pre-teen predictors for development of IFG, T2DM, and changes in body mass index at age 18-19 y in black and white girls.
  
  
  METHODS
  In a prospective cohort study, body habitus and fasting insulin and glucose were measured at ages 9-10 and 18-19 y, and multiple 3-d diet records were collected. Factors predicting 10-y change in body mass index and development of IFG and T2DM together were assessed.
  
  
  RESULTS
  In multivariate analyses, 10-y change in homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) and the age 9-10 y HOMA-IR x percentage of calories from fat interaction were positive predictors of 10-y changes in body mass index. At age 18-19 y, there were 5 incident cases of T2DM, 37 cases of IFG, and 597 noncases. Age 9-10 y IFG and HOMA-IR (or insulin), 10-y change in HOMA-IR (or insulin), and the age 9-10 y insulin x total caloric intake interaction predicted IFG and T2DM at age 18-19 y.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Pre-teen IFG, insulin resistance (and insulin), and rapidly increasing insulin resistance during adolescence identifies girls who are at greater risk of future IFG and T2DM. In addition, insulin resistance, interacting with high-fat diets, identifies girls who are at risk of greater weight gain. These findings could open avenues to primary prevention of obesity, IFG, and T2DM in children.
authors.affiliation: Division of Cardiology, Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center, Cincinnati, OH 45229, USA. john.morrison@cchmc.org
authors.forename: John A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Morrison
authors.forename: Charles J
authors.initials: CJ
authors.lastname: Glueck
authors.forename: Paul S
authors.initials: PS
authors.lastname: Horn
authors.forename: George B
authors.initials: GB
authors.lastname: Schreiber
authors.forename: Ping
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Wang
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D044383:Black People; D002648:Child; D015331:Cohort Studies; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000453:epidemiology*; D018149:Glucose Intolerance / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006801:Humans; D007333:Insulin Resistance; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011446:Prospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors; D015430:Weight Gain / Q000502:physiology*; D044465:White People