title: The development of a clinically useful tool for predicting the development of psychological disorder following injury.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To identify factors significantly associated with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), anxiety, and depression at 3 months post-injury; to develop a generic model to predict the occurrence of PTSD, anxiety, and depression at 3 months post-injury; and to validate this model in a test data set of patients.
  
  
  METHODS
  Prospective cohort study.
  
  
  METHODS
  Participants were 823 patients attending an emergency department (ED) following accidental injury. Baseline questionnaires were completed, with 1 and 3 months postal follow-ups. Predictor variables demonstrating significant associations with two of the three outcome measures (3-month HAD anxiety and depression scores and PTSD symptoms) were included in multivariate regression models for each outcome. Non-significant predictor variables were removed until all remaining independent variables made the most significant contribution to each of the three models. Models were validated using a test dataset.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Previous history of mental health problems, neuroticism score and having PTSD symptoms at 1 month predicted adverse outcomes at 3 months. When used on the test datasets, the areas under the receiver operating curve (ROC) curve for the models predicting outcomes at 3 months were: PTSD=0.91 (sensitivity=88.5%); anxiety=0.87 (sensitivity=93.7%); and depression=0.87 (sensitivity=96.7%).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The final model performed moderately well across the three outcomes and may be useful clinically as a generic rule-out tool to identify those who will not require follow up, watchful waiting or intervention.
authors.affiliation: School of Health and Related Research, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK. s.mason@sheffield.ac.uk
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Mason
authors.forename: T F D
authors.initials: TF
authors.lastname: Farrow
authors.forename: D
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Fawbert
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Smith
authors.forename: P A
authors.initials: PA
authors.lastname: Bath
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Hunter
authors.forename: P W
authors.initials: PW
authors.lastname: Woodruff
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Turpin
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D001008:Anxiety Disorders / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000523:psychology; D015331:Cohort Studies; D015897:Comorbidity; D003866:Depressive Disorder / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000523:psychology; D004834:Epilepsy, Post-Traumatic / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000523:psychology; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D001523:Mental Disorders / Q000175:diagnosis*; D016017:Odds Ratio; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012372:ROC Curve; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires; D006113:United Kingdom / Q000453:epidemiology; D014947:Wounds and Injuries / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000523:psychology