title: Vaccination and the evolutionary ecology of human papillomavirus.
abstract: New and upcoming vaccines provide protection against types 16 and 18 of human papillomavirus (HPV), which are responsible for an estimated 70% of all cervical cancers. One vaccine also protects against HPV types 6 and 11, which cause more than 90% of genital warts. We use a mathematical model of HPV transmission and immunity to explore the effect of vaccination on the evolution of HPV types. If vaccination provides cross-immunity at least equal to that of natural infection, it may contract the niche space available to other HPV types a million-fold. If natural infection provides greater cross-immunity than vaccination, vaccination may expand available niche space up to 470-fold. The balance of epidemiologic data suggests vaccination will reduce the available niche space.
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Yale University School of Medicine, 60 College Street, New Haven, CT 06520-8034, USA. eric.poolman@gmail.com
authors.forename: Eric M
authors.initials: EM
authors.lastname: Poolman
authors.forename: Elamin H
authors.initials: EH
authors.lastname: Elbasha
authors.forename: Alison P
authors.initials: AP
authors.lastname: Galvani
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D005075:Biological Evolution; D002648:Child; D017753:Ecosystem; D006801:Humans; D008954:Models, Biological; D027383:Papillomaviridae / Q000145:classification / Q000235:genetics*; D030361:Papillomavirus Infections / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000276:immunology / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000821:virology; D053918:Papillomavirus Vaccines / Q000008:administration & dosage*; D014611:Vaccination
chemical_list: D053918:Papillomavirus Vaccines