title: Diversity of deep-water cetaceans in relation to temperature: implications for ocean warming.
abstract: Understanding the effects of natural environmental variation on biodiversity can help predict response to future anthropogenic change. Here we analyse a large, long-term data set of sightings of deep-water cetaceans from the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans. Seasonal and geographic changes in the diversity of these genera are well predicted by a convex function of sea-surface temperature peaking at c. 21 degrees C. Thus, diversity is highest at intermediate latitudes - an emerging general pattern for the pelagic ocean. When applied to a range of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change global change scenarios, the predicted response is a decline of cetacean diversity across the tropics and increases at higher latitudes. This suggests that deep-water oceanic communities that dominate > 60% of the planet's surface may reorganize in response to ocean warming, with low-latitude losses of diversity and resilience.
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, 1355 Oxford St, Halifax, NS, Canada B3H 4J1.
authors.forename: Hal
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Whitehead
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, 1355 Oxford St, Halifax, NS, Canada B3H 4J1.
authors.forename: Brian
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: McGill
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, 1355 Oxford St, Halifax, NS, Canada B3H 4J1.
authors.forename: Boris
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Worm
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D044822:Biodiversity; D002591:Cetacea / Q000502:physiology*; D005843:Geography; D017752:Greenhouse Effect; D008954:Models, Biological; D009792:Oceans and Seas; D012621:Seasons; D013696:Temperature