title: Predictors of morbidity and mortality with endovascular and open thoracic aneurysm repair.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Open and endovascular thoracic aneurysm repairs are associated with significant complications including paraplegia, stroke, vascular insufficiency, and death. Predictors of adverse outcomes are not well-defined in this patient population.
  
  
  METHODS
  The database of the GORE TAG (W.L. Gore, Flagstaff, Ariz) Pivotal Trial comparing the TAG endograft to open repair was interrogated. Univariate (UVA) and multivariate analyses (MVA) of demographic, clinical, anatomic, and procedural variables were conducted to discover possible predictors of serious adverse events for the whole group and for the TAG and open cohort groups separately. Early adverse outcomes occurred within 30 days or the initial hospitalization. P value of < or = .05 was significant.
  
  
  RESULTS
  A total of 140 TAG and 94 open descending thoracic aneurysm (DTA) patients were analyzed, consisting of 128 men and 106 women. Perioperative deaths were 9/94 for open surgery and 3/140 for TAG patients, with 10/12 (7 open, 3 TAG) deaths occurring in men. Two female deaths were both after open surgery. Multivariate analysis showed predictors of death for all patients were symptomatic aneurysms and male gender. Analysis of a combined morbidity/mortality endpoint (stroke/paralysis/MI/death) showed elevated creatinine predicted these events for the whole group. Open surgery (P < .001) and increasing aneurysm diameter (P < .001) predicted an increased likelihood of any major adverse event. Open surgery was significantly associated with an increased risk of paraplegia (P = .002). Vascular complications were more frequent in the TAG (19%) than in open DTA patients (9%) (P = .038). Female gender (P = .01) predicted vascular complications within the endovascular group. For all analyses, long procedure times were correlated with adverse events. Women were noted to have longer procedure times for both TAG and open repairs.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Elevated creatinine levels and symptomatic aneurysms predict morbidity and mortality, respectively, regardless of repair type. Male gender predicted death after open surgery, and since most deaths (9 of 12) were in this group, male gender predicted death overall, despite women's more difficult endovascular TAA repairs as evidenced by longer procedure times and higher vascular complication rates. All major adverse events and paraplegia were more common for open surgery patients.
authors.affiliation: Department of Vascular Surgery, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA. dillavoued@upmc.edu
authors.forename: Ellen D
authors.initials: ED
authors.lastname: Dillavou
authors.forename: Michel S
authors.initials: MS
authors.lastname: Makaroun
mesh_terms: D017545:Aortic Aneurysm, Thoracic / Q000401:mortality* / Q000473:pathology / Q000601:surgery*; D001807:Blood Vessel Prosthesis; D019917:Blood Vessel Prosthesis Implantation / Q000009:adverse effects* / Q000295:instrumentation / Q000401:mortality*; D003404:Creatinine / Q000097:blood; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D009203:Myocardial Infarction / Q000209:etiology; D010264:Paraplegia / Q000209:etiology; D011446:Prospective Studies; D011475:Prosthesis Failure; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D012737:Sex Factors; D020521:Stroke / Q000209:etiology; D013997:Time Factors; D016896:Treatment Outcome; D015854:Up-Regulation
chemical_list: D003404:Creatinine