title: Patients at risk for long-term sick leave because of low back pain.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Ten percent of patients with low back pain (LBP) are not able to resume work within 3 months of sick leave, accounting for 90% of all medical and indemnity costs.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To quantify the relative contribution of sociodemographic, clinical, occupational, and psychological risk factors in determining the non-return to work after 3 months of compensated LBP and to develop a screening tool to identify patients who require further guidance and rehabilitation.
  
  
  METHODS
  A 6-month prospective cohort study of disabled workers applying for compensation benefit because of LBP during a 6-month period in the Belgian compulsory health insurance system.
  
  
  METHODS
  Three hundred and forty-six patients.
  
  
  METHODS
  Patients unable to resume work within 3 months of sick leave were classified as bad outcomes.
  
  
  METHODS
  Consecutively, injured workers applying for income replacement benefits between October 2003 and March 2004 because of LBP were followed 6 months after the start of the sick leave period. All subjects underwent a standardized physical examination and completed a battery of 12 self-report questionnaires.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Forty-seven percent of the population had not resumed work 3 months after the start of the sick leave period. The risk factors for sickness absence more than 3 months were Oswestry disability index (odds ratio for each point increase: 1.04; 95% confidence interval: 1.02-1.06), fear of avoidance severity score (odds ratio for each point increase: 1.05; confidence interval: 1.02-1.09), blue collar worker (odds ratio: 2.18; confidence interval: 1.21-3.92), LBP for less than 12 weeks before sick leave (odds ratio: 0.32; confidence interval: 0.17-0.64), and pain behavior (odds ratio for each point increase: 1.72; confidence interval: 1.25-2.39). A multivariate screening test based on five questions identified 80% of the patients unable to resume work after 3 months of sick leave (specificity: 56.6; cut off: 0.4).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  A questionnaire comprising a limited set of items allows a practical screening of LBP patients unlikely to resume work.
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, Occupational Environmental and Insurance Medicine, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Kapucijnenvoer 35/5, 3000 Leuven, Belgium.
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Du Bois
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Szpalski
authors.forename: P
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Donceel
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D015331:Cohort Studies; D004185:Disability Evaluation; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D017116:Low Back Pain / Q000191:economics* / Q000523:psychology*; D008297:Male; D012307:Risk Factors; D018582:Sick Leave / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires