title: Changing perception of average person's risk does not suffice to change perception of comparative risk.
abstract: The direct method of assessing "unrealistic optimism" employs a question of the form, "Compared with the average person, what is the chance that event X will occur to you?" It has been proposed that when individuals construct their responses to this question (direct-estimates) they focus much more strongly on estimates of their own risk (self-estimates) than on estimates of the average person's risk (other-estimates). A challenge to this proposal comes from findings that interventions that alter other-estimates also change direct-estimates. Employing a novel intervention technique, we tested the possibility that such interventions may indirectly also change self-estimates and that this is what accounts for their effect on direct-estimates. Study 1 (n = 58) showed that an intervention which was designed to (and did) affect other-estimates also affected self-estimates, while Study 2 (n = 101) showed that it affected direct-estimates. Study 3 (n = 79) confirmed that we could modify the intervention so as to maintain the effect on other-estimates, but eliminate that on self-estimates. Study 4 (n = 112) demonstrated that when this was done, there was no longer any effect on direct-estimates. The findings are consistent with the proposal that direct-estimates are constructed largely just out of self-estimates. Implications for heath education programs are discussed.
authors.affiliation: Deakin University, Burwood, Victoria, Australia. h.aucote@ballarat.edu.au
authors.forename: Helen M
authors.initials: HM
authors.lastname: Aucote
authors.forename: Ron S
authors.initials: RS
authors.lastname: Gold
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D001294:Attitude to Health; D003469:Culture; D003717:Denial, Psychological; D005260:Female; D006266:Health Education; D006801:Humans; D007389:Internal-External Control; D007600:Judgment; D011247:Pregnancy; D049168:Pregnancy, Unplanned / Q000523:psychology; D011336:Probability; D012306:Risk; D012648:Self Care / Q000523:psychology; D012938:Social Perception; D013334:Students / Q000523:psychology; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires; D055815:Young Adult