title: Securing passenger aircraft from the threat of man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS).
abstract: In this article, we develop a model for the expected maximum hit probability of an attack on a commercial aircraft using MANPADS, as a function of the (random) location of the attacker. We also explore the sensitivity of the expected maximum hit probability to the parameters of the model, including both attacker parameters (such as weapon characteristics) and defender parameters (such as the size of the secure region around the airport). We conclude that having a large secure region around an airport offers some protection against MANPADS, and that installing onboard countermeasures reduces the success probability of a MANPADS attack.
authors.affiliation: Department of Industrial & Systems Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1513 University Avenue, Madison, WI 53706, USA. uookpara@wisc.edu
authors.forename: Uche
authors.initials: U
authors.lastname: Okpara
authors.forename: Vicki M
authors.initials: VM
authors.lastname: Bier