title: Five-year incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus among cardiovascular disease-free Greek adults: findings from the ATTICA study.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  We evaluated the 5-year incidence of diabetes in an adult population from Greece.
  
  
  METHODS
  3042 individuals (>18 years), free of cardiovascular disease, participated in the baseline examination (during 2001-2002). Of this sample, 1012 men and 1035 women were found alive at the time of follow-up, while 32 (2.1%) men and 22 (1.4%) women died during this period. The rest were lost to follow-up. Incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus was evaluated in 1806 participants who did not have diabetes at baseline.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The age-adjusted 5-year incidence of diabetes was 5.5% (men, 5.8%; women, 5.2%). A linear trend was observed between diabetes incidence and age (5.6% increases in incidence per 1-year difference in age, p<0.001). Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that age (OR per 1 yr=1.04, 95% CI 1.02-1.06), waist (OR per 1 cm=1.02, 95% CI 1.01-1.003), physical activity (OR=0.62, 95% CI 0.35-1.02) and family history of diabetes (OR=2.65, 95% CI 1.58-4.53), as well as fasting glucose levels (OR per 1 mg/dl=1.05, 95% CI 1.03-1.07), were the most significant baseline predictors for diabetes, after adjusting for various potential confounders. Additionally, presence of metabolic syndrome at baseline evaluation 2.95-fold the risk of diabetes (95% CI 1.89-4.61), and showed better classification ability than the model that contained the components of the syndrome (ie, correct classification rate: 94.5% vs. 92.3%).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Our findings show that a 5.5% incidence rate of diabetes within a 5-year period, which suggests that the prevalence of this disorder in Greece is rising. Aging, heredity, and metabolic syndrome were the most significant determinants of diabetes.
authors.affiliation: Department of Nutrition Science-Dietetics, Harokopio University Athens, Greece. d.b.panagiotakos@usa.net
authors.forename: Demosthenes B
authors.initials: DB
authors.lastname: Panagiotakos
authors.forename: Christos
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Pitsavos
authors.forename: Yannis
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Skoumas
authors.forename: Yannis
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Lentzas
authors.forename: Christodoulos
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Stefanadis
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000235:genetics; D005260:Female; D020022:Genetic Predisposition to Disease; D006115:Greece / Q000453:epidemiology; D006306:Health Surveys; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D024821:Metabolic Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology; D008875:Middle Aged; D012307:Risk Factors