title: Prospective cohort study to test the predictability of the Cardiff and Vale paediatric early warning system.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To develop and test the predictability of a paediatric early warning score to identify children at risk of developing critical illness.
  
  
  METHODS
  Prospective cohort study.
  
  
  METHODS
  Admissions to all paediatric wards at the University Hospital of Wales.
  
  
  METHODS
  Respiratory arrest, cardiac arrest, paediatric high-dependency unit admission, paediatric intensive care unit admission and death.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Data were collected on 1000 patients. A single abnormal observation determined by the Cardiff and Vale paediatric early warning system (C&VPEWS) had a 89.0% sensitivity (95% CI 80.5 to 94.1), 63.9% specificity (95% CI 63.8 to 63.9), 2.2% positive predictive value (95% CI 2.0 to 2.3) and a 99.8% negative predictive value (95% CI 99.7 to 99.9) for identifying children who subsequently had an adverse outcome. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the C&VPEWS score was 0.86 (95% CI 0.82 to 0.91).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Identifying children likely to develop critical illness can be difficult. The assessment tool developed from the advanced paediatric life support guidelines on identifying sick children appears to be sensitive but not specific. If the C&VPEWS was used as a trigger to activate a rapid response team to assess the child, the majority of calls would be unnecessary.
authors.affiliation: Department of Paediatrics, Singleton Hospital, Swansea SA2 8QA, UK. Dawn.Edwards@swansea-tr.nhs.wales.uk
authors.forename: E D
authors.initials: ED
authors.lastname: Edwards
authors.forename: C V E
authors.initials: CV
authors.lastname: Powell
authors.forename: B W
authors.initials: BW
authors.lastname: Mason
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Oliver
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D016638:Critical Illness; D004636:Emergency Service, Hospital / Q000592:standards*; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D015278:Intensive Care Units, Pediatric / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D008485:Medical Audit / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D010360:Patient Transfer / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*