title: Risk model of thoracic aortic surgery in 4707 cases from a nationwide single-race population through a web-based data entry system: the first report of 30-day and 30-day operative outcome risk models for thoracic aortic surgery.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The objective of this study was to collect integrated data from nationwide hospitals using a web-based national database system to build up our own risk model for the outcome from thoracic aortic surgery.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The Japan Adult Cardiovascular Surgery Database was used; this involved approximately 180 hospitals throughout Japan through a web-based data entry system. Variables and definitions are almost identical to the STS National Database. After data cleanup, 4707 records were analyzed from 97 hospitals (between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2005). Mean age was 66.5 years. Preoperatively, the incidence of chronic lung disease was 11%, renal failure was 9%, and rupture or malperfusion was 10%. The incidence of the location along the aorta requiring replacement surgery (including overlapping areas) was: aortic root, 10%; ascending aorta, 47%; aortic arch, 44%; distal arch, 21%; descending aorta, 27%; and thoracoabdominal aorta, 8%. Raw 30-day and 30-day operative mortality rates were 6.7% and 8.6%, respectively. Postoperative incidence of permanent stroke was 6.1%, and renal failure requiring dialysis was 6.7%. OR for 30-day operative mortality was as follows: emergency or salvage, 3.7; creatinine >3.0 mg/dL, 3.0; and unexpected coronary artery bypass graft, 2.6. As a performance metric of the risk model, C-index of 30-day and 30-day operative mortality was 0.79 and 0.78, respectively.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This is the first report of risk stratification on thoracic aortic surgery using a nationwide surgical database. Although condition of these patients undergoing thoracic aortic surgery was much more serious than other procedures, the result of this series was excellent.
authors.affiliation: FAHA, Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Faculty of Medicine, University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8655, Japan. noboru@motomura.org
authors.forename: Noboru
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Motomura
authors.forename: Hiroaki
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Miyata
authors.forename: Hiroyuki
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Tsukihara
authors.forename: Shinichi
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Takamoto
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001011:Aorta / Q000601:surgery*; D044466:Asian People; D016208:Databases, Factual; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D020407:Internet; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D006435:Renal Dialysis; D051437:Renal Insufficiency / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology / Q000628:therapy; D018570:Risk Assessment; D020521:Stroke / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology; D019616:Thoracic Surgical Procedures / Q000009:adverse effects* / Q000401:mortality*; D013997:Time Factors; D016896:Treatment Outcome; D014656:Vascular Surgical Procedures / Q000009:adverse effects* / Q000401:mortality*