title: Mayo risk score for primary biliary cirrhosis: a useful tool for the prediction of course after liver transplantation?
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Survival after orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) for primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) is excellent. In order to define the optimal time point for OLT, the Mayo risk score (MRS) was developed and a score of 7.8 was identified for transplantation. However, in reality most recipients are in a bad condition with a MRS above 7.8. So far it is still unknown if a higher score is associated with more complications after OLT perioperatively and in a long-term follow-up. Therefore, this study was designed to investigate the association of the MRS score with postoperative survival and complications.
  
  
  METHODS
  Between 1989 and 2006, 115 patients were transplanted for histologically proven PBC at the Charité Campus Virchow Clinic. In 98 of these patients, MRS data was available and retrospectively analyzed. Median age of 87 women and 11 men was 54 years (25 to 66 years).
  
  
  RESULTS
  The median follow-up after liver transplantation was 109 months (0.5-205 months). Actuarial patient survival after 5, 10 and 15 years was 90%, 88%, and 83%. Calculated survival by MRS without transplantation after 1, 5 and 7 years was 20%, 2% and 1% for these patients. Twelve patients (12%) died and histological recurrence of PBC was detected in 14 patients (14%). Seven patients underwent retransplantation (7%) and 58 patients developed an acute rejection episode (59%). Mean MRS was in all patients 9.54+/-1.35 and did not differ between patients with lethal course, retransplantations, PBC recurrence, rejection episodes and duration of hospital stay. Classification of all patients into a low (<8.5), middle (8.5-10) and high MRS score (>10) did not show a significant difference in long-term survival. Univariate analysis for identifying the level of MRS as risk for death, PBC-recurrence, retransplantation, acute rejection episodes and hospital stay only showed a significant increased risk for acute rejection episodes (1 episode = 0.04; 2 episodes = 0.01) for patients with a MRS above 8.5.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The Mayo risk score is an approved mathematical model predicting survival in non-transplanted patients suffering from PBC. However, the score did not predict the course of our liver transplanted patients in a long-term follow-up. We could not demonstrate a reduced patient survival at a median MRS of 9.4 and about 10.0. Therefore, it is, from our point of view, questionable if the optimal time point for OLT is still 7.8.
authors.affiliation: Department of General, Visceral and Transplantation Surgery, Humboldt University of Berlin, Charité Virchow Clinic, Berlin, Germany. dietmar.jacob@charite.de
authors.forename: Dietmar A
authors.initials: DA
authors.lastname: Jacob
authors.forename: Marcus
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Bahra
authors.forename: Sven C
authors.initials: SC
authors.lastname: Schmidt
authors.forename: Guido
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Schumacher
authors.forename: Andreas
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Weimann
authors.forename: Peter
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Neuhaus
authors.forename: Ulf P
authors.initials: UP
authors.lastname: Neumann
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D002423:Cause of Death; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008105:Liver Cirrhosis, Biliary / Q000401:mortality* / Q000601:surgery*; D016031:Liver Transplantation / Q000401:mortality*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011379:Prognosis; D012086:Reoperation; D018570:Risk Assessment; D016019:Survival Analysis