Predicted climate changes for the years to come and implications for disease impact studies.
The paper presents a review of the current ability of the climate modelling community to produce predictions of future climate change. Predictions for the next few decades are reasonably robust, whereas predictions for later time periods depend on uncertainties in climate model structure and on the unknown future course of greenhouse gas emissions. Some regional features are noticeable; however, meaningful interpretation of these can only presently be made at spatial scales that are considerably larger than those required for making sound estimates of the effects of future climate change on animal health. The implication is that current climate change predictions should be considered indicative rather than accurate.
Stone
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DA
Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Clarendon Laboratory, Oxford, United Kingdom. stoned@atm.ox.ac.uk
D000820:Animal Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control; D000818:Animals; D002980:Climate; D003198:Computer Simulation; D004190:Disasters; D005544:Forecasting; D017752:Greenhouse Effect; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011891:Rain; D013696:Temperature; D013997:Time Factors