title: Can a prediction model for vaginal birth after cesarean also predict the probability of morbidity related to a trial of labor?
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The objective of the study was to determine whether a model for predicting vaginal birth after cesarean (VBAC) can also predict the probabilty of morbidity associated with a trial of labor (TOL).
  
  
  METHODS
  Using a previously published prediction model, we categorized women with 1 prior cesarean by chance of VBAC. Prevalence of maternal and neonatal morbidity was stratfied by probability of VBAC success and delivery approach.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Morbidity became less frequent as the predicted chance of VBAC increased among women who underwent TOL (P < .001) but not elective repeat cesarean section (ERCS) (P > .05). When the predicted chance of VBAC was less than 70%, women undergoing a TOL were more likely to have maternal morbidity (relative risk [RR], 2.2; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.5-3.1) than those who underwent an ERCS; when the predicted chance of VBAC was at least 70%, total maternal morbidity was not different between the 2 groups (RR, 0.8; 95% CI, 0.5-1.2). The results were similar for neonatal morbidity.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  A prediction model for VBAC provides information regarding the chance of TOL-related morbidity and suggests that maternal morbidity is not greater for those women who undergo TOL than those who undergo ERCS if the chance of VBAC is at least 70%.
authors.affiliation: Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology at Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, USA.
authors.forename: William A
authors.initials: WA
authors.lastname: Grobman
authors.forename: Yinglei
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Lai
authors.forename: Mark B
authors.initials: MB
authors.lastname: Landon
authors.forename: Catherine Y
authors.initials: CY
authors.lastname: Spong
authors.forename: Kenneth J
authors.initials: KJ
authors.lastname: Leveno
authors.forename: Dwight J
authors.initials: DJ
authors.lastname: Rouse
authors.forename: Michael W
authors.initials: MW
authors.lastname: Varner
authors.forename: Atef H
authors.initials: AH
authors.lastname: Moawad
authors.forename: Steve N
authors.initials: SN
authors.lastname: Caritis
authors.forename: Margaret
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Harper
authors.forename: Ronald J
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: Wapner
authors.forename: Yoram
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Sorokin
authors.forename: Menachem
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Miodovnik
authors.forename: Marshall
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Carpenter
authors.forename: Mary J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: O'Sullivan
authors.forename: Baha M
authors.initials: BM
authors.lastname: Sibai
authors.forename: Oded
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Langer
authors.forename: John M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Thorp
authors.forename: Susan M
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Ramin
authors.forename: Brian M
authors.initials: BM
authors.lastname: Mercer
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D017604:Cesarean Section, Repeat; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009017:Morbidity; D049451:Nomograms; D011247:Pregnancy; D014219:Trial of Labor; D016064:Vaginal Birth after Cesarean