Adding immigrants to microsimulation models.
Forecasts of the financial status of Social Security's Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) programs and forecasts of the effects of various OASDI policy options on Americans would be improved if information about the earnings and labor force behavior of various population subgroups were included in projection models. Focusing on the projection of immigrant earnings, this article proffers a conceptual basis for incorporating immigration into microsimulation models. Key results from research on immigrant earnings, as described in the first article in this trilogy--"Research on Immigrant Earnings"--are linked to methods for forecasting individual earnings in microsimulation models. The research on immigrant earnings also inspires new methods for forecasting earnings in microsimulation models as well as the projection of immigrant emigration. Forecasting immigrant earnings and emigration is discussed in the context of a "closed system"--that is, forecasts are only made for a given population, which is represented in the base sample of the microsimulation model. The third article in our trilogy--"Incorporating Immigrant Flows into Microsimulation Models"--explores how to project immigrant earnings in the context of an "open system," which includes future immigrants.
Division of Economic Research, Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, Office of Retirement and Disability Policy, Social Security Administration, USA.
Harriet Orcutt
HO
Duleep
Daniel J
DJ
Dowhan
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D054242:Emigrants and Immigrants; D004641:Emigration and Immigration / Q000639:trends; D006801:Humans; D008875:Middle Aged; D017059:Models, Econometric; D012456:Salaries and Fringe Benefits; D014481:United States; D055815:Young Adult