Dynamics of dengue epidemics in urban contexts.
Dengue, similar to other arboviral diseases, exhibits complex spatiotemporal dynamics. Even at town or village level, individual-based spatially explicit models are required to correctly reproduce epidemic curves. This makes modelling at the regional level (province, country or continent) very difficult and cumbersome. We propose here a first step to build a hierarchized model by constructing a simple analytical expression which reproduces the model output from macroscopic parameters describing each 'village'. It also turns out to be a good approximation of real urban epidermic outbreaks. Subsequently, a regional model could be built by coupling these equations on a lattice.
Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, King Mongkut Institute of Technology, Bangkok, Thailand.
P
P
Pongsumpun
D
D
Garcia Lopez
C
C
Favier
L
L
Torres
J
J
Llosa
M A
MA
Dubois
D000818:Animals; D021821:Communicable Diseases, Emerging / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission*; D003198:Computer Simulation; D003710:Demography; D003715:Dengue / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission*; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D006801:Humans; D008954:Models, Biological; D015233:Models, Statistical; D017711:Nonlinear Dynamics