Forecasting of daily total atmospheric ozone in Isfahan.
A neural network combined to an artificial neural network model is used to forecast daily total atmospheric ozone over Isfahan city in Iran. In this work, in order to forecast the total column ozone over Isfahan, we have examined several neural networks algorithms with different meteorological predictors based on the ozone-meteorological relationships with previous day's ozone value. The meteorological predictors consist of temperatures (dry and dew point) and geopotential heights at standard levels of 100, 50, 30, 20 and 10 hPa with their wind speed and direction. These data together with previous day total ozone forms the input matrix of the neural model that is based on the back propagation algorithm (BPA) structure. The output matrix is the daily total atmospheric ozone. The model was build based on daily data from 1997 to 2004 obtained from Isfahan ozonometric station data. After modeling these data we used 3 year (from 2001 to 2003) of daily total ozone for testing the accuracy of model. In this experiment, with the final neural network, the total ozone are fairly well predicted, with an Agreement Index 76%.
Department of Geography, Faculty of Humanities, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran. h.yazdan@geog.ui.ac.ir
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Yazdanpanah
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Karimi
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Hejazizadeh
D000393:Air Pollutants / Q000032:analysis*; D000397:Air Pollution / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D001272:Atmosphere / Q000737:chemistry*; D002947:Cities; D004784:Environmental Monitoring; D005544:Forecasting; D007492:Iran; D015233:Models, Statistical; D016571:Neural Networks, Computer; D010126:Ozone / Q000032:analysis*
D000393:Air Pollutants; D010126:Ozone