Memory effects in the statistics of interoccurrence times between large returns in financial records.
We study the statistics of the interoccurrence times between events above some threshold Q in two kinds of multifractal data sets (multiplicative random cascades and multifractal random walks) with vanishing linear correlations. We show that in both data sets the relevant quantities (probability density functions and the autocorrelation function of the interoccurrence times, as well as the conditional return period) are governed by power laws with exponents that depend explicitly on the considered threshold. By studying a large number of representative financial records (market indices, stock prices, exchange rates, and commodities), we show explicitly that the interoccurrence times between large daily returns follow the same behavior, in a nearly quantitative manner. We conclude that this kind of behavior is a general consequence of the nonlinear memory inherent in the multifractal data sets.
Institut für Theoretische Physik III, Justus-Liebig-Universität Giessen, 35392 Giessen, Germany.
Mikhail I
MI
Bogachev
Armin
A
Bunde