title: Rainfall and outbreaks of drinking water related disease and in England and Wales.
abstract: A case-crossover study compared rainfall in the 4 weeks before drinking water related outbreaks with that in the five previous control years. This included public and private drinking water related outbreaks in England and Wales from 1910 to 1999. Of 111 outbreaks, 89 met inclusion criteria and the implicated pathogens included Giardia, Cryptosporidium, E. coli, S. Typhi, S. Paratyphi, Campylobacter and Streptobacillus moniliformis. Weather data was derived from the British Atmospheric Data Centre There was a significant association between excess cumulative rainfall in the previous 7 days and outbreaks (p=0.001). There was an excess of rainfall below 20 mm for the three weeks previous to this in outbreak compared to control weeks (p=0.002). Cumulative rainfall exceedances were associated with outbreak years. This study provides evidence that both low rainfall and heavy rain precede many drinking water outbreaks and assessing the health impacts of climate change should examine both.
authors.affiliation: Environmental and Enteric Diseases Department, Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections, 61, Colindale Avenue, London, NW9 5EQ, UK. gordon.nichols@hpa.org.uk
authors.forename: Gordon
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Nichols
authors.forename: Chris
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Lane
authors.forename: Nima
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Asgari
authors.forename: Neville Q
authors.initials: NQ
authors.lastname: Verlander
authors.forename: Andre
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Charlett
mesh_terms: D018592:Cross-Over Studies; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D004739:England / Q000453:epidemiology; D016905:Gram-Negative Bacterial Infections / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006801:Humans; D011528:Protozoan Infections / Q000453:epidemiology*; D011891:Rain; D014852:Wales / Q000453:epidemiology; D014881:Water Supply