Allometric scaling and seasonality in the epidemics of wildlife diseases.
We present a susceptibles-exposed-infectives (SEI) model to analyze the effects of seasonality on epidemics, mainly of rabies, in a wide range of wildlife species. Model parameters are cast as simple allometric functions of host body size. Via nonlinear analysis, we investigate the dynamical behavior of the disease for different levels of seasonality in the transmission rate and for different values of the pathogen basic reproduction number (R(0)) over a broad range of body sizes. While the unforced SEI model exhibits long-term epizootic cycles only for large values of R(0), the seasonal model exhibits multiyear periodicity for small values of R(0). The oscillation period predicted by the seasonal model is consistent with those observed in the field for different host species. These conclusions are not affected by alternative assumptions for the shape of seasonality or for the parameters that exhibit seasonal variations. However, the introduction of host immunity (which occurs for rabies in some species and is typical of many other wildlife diseases) significantly modifies the epidemic dynamics; in this case, multiyear cycling requires a large level of seasonal forcing. Our analysis suggests that the explicit inclusion of periodic forcing in models of wildlife disease may be crucial to correctly describe the epidemics of wildlife that live in strongly seasonal environments.
Bolzoni
Luca
L
Dipartimento di Scienze Ambientali, Università degli Studi di Parma, Viale Usberti 11/A, 43100 Parma, Italy. luca.bolzoni@nemo.unipr.it
Dobson
Andrew P
AP
Gatto
Marino
M
De Leo
Giulio A
GA
D000820:Animal Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology*; D000818:Animals; D000835:Animals, Wild; D001683:Biological Clocks / Q000502:physiology*; D049628:Body Size; D003198:Computer Simulation; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000662:veterinary*; D008954:Models, Biological; D011818:Rabies / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000662:veterinary*; D012621:Seasons