title: Surrogate decision-makers' perspectives on discussing prognosis in the face of uncertainty.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Many physicians are reluctant to discuss a patient's prognosis when there is significant prognostic uncertainty.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  We sought to understand surrogate decision makers' views regarding whether physicians should discuss prognosis in the face of uncertainty.
  
  
  METHODS
  We conducted semi-structured interviews with 179 surrogates for 142 incapacitated patients at high risk of death in four intensive care units at an academic medical center. The interviews explored surrogates' attitudes about whether physicians should discuss prognosis when they cannot be certain their prognostic estimates are correct. We used constant comparative methods to analyze the transcripts. Validation methods included triangulation by multidisciplinary analysis and member checking.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Eighty-seven percent (155/179) of surrogates wanted physicians to discuss an uncertain prognosis. We identified five main reasons for this, including surrogates' belief that prognostic uncertainty is unavoidable, that physicians are their only source for prognostic information, and that discussing prognostic uncertainty leaves room for realistic hope, increases surrogates' trust in the physician, and signals a need to prepare for possible bereavement. Twelve percent (22/179) of surrogates felt that discussions about an uncertain prognosis should be avoided. The main explanation was that it is not worth the potential emotional distress if the prognostications are incorrect. Surrogates suggested that physicians should explicitly discuss uncertainty when prognosticating.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The majority of surrogates of patients that are critically ill want physicians to disclose their prognostic estimates even if they cannot be certain they are correct. This stems from surrogates' belief that prognostic uncertainty is simultaneously unavoidable and acceptable.
authors.affiliation: Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, University of California School of Medicine, San Francisco, California 94143-0903, USA.
authors.forename: Leah R
authors.initials: LR
authors.lastname: Evans
authors.forename: Elizabeth A
authors.initials: EA
authors.lastname: Boyd
authors.forename: Grace
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Malvar
authors.forename: Latifat
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Apatira
authors.forename: John M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Luce
authors.forename: Bernard
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Lo
authors.forename: Douglas B
authors.initials: DB
authors.lastname: White
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D017028:Caregivers; D003422:Critical Care; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D010817:Physician-Patient Relations; D011368:Professional-Family Relations; D011379:Prognosis; D035501:Uncertainty