title: [Population aging effects on inpatient care expenditures: a disaggregated analysis for two Brazilian metropolitan areas].
abstract: This paper examines the impact of changes in population age distribution on inpatient care expenditures in Brazil. The authors use data from two highly distinct metropolitan areas, Curitiba (Paraná State) and Belém (Paraná State), in order to determine to what extent current differences in expenditures are explained by differences in: (i) age distributions, (ii) age-specific expenditures (price effects), and (iii) utilization rates (rate effects). The study also looks at the consequences of future changes in age distribution by simulating each of the effects (age distribution, price, and rate) under the projected population age distribution for Brazil in 2050. The results show that only 13% of current differences in health expenditures in Curitiba and Belém are explained by differences in age distribution. Most of the difference is due to price effect (72%), probably because of large socioeconomic and epidemiological discrepancies in these two metropolitan areas. However, simulations for 2050 suggest that most future changes in inpatient care will be explained by population aging effects.
authors.affiliation: Centro de Desenvolvimento e Planejamento Regional, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brasil.
authors.forename: Cláudia Koeppel
authors.initials: CK
authors.lastname: Berenstein
authors.forename: Simone
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Wajnman
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D000375:Aging; D001938:Brazil; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D003695:Delivery of Health Care / Q000191:economics*; D005260:Female; D005102:Health Expenditures; D006296:Health Services / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006297:Health Services Accessibility; D006305:Health Status Indicators; D019456:Health Transition; D006760:Hospitalization / Q000191:economics* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors; D014505:Urban Population; D055815:Young Adult