Dynamics of the 2006/2007 dengue outbreak in Brazil.
We analyzed dengue incidence in the period between October 2006-July 2007 of 146 cities around the country were Larval Index Rapid Assay (LIRA) surveillance was carried out in October 2006. Of these, we chosen 61 cities that had 500 or more cases reported during this period. We calculated the incidence coefficient, the force of infection (lambda) and the basic reproduction number (R0) of dengue in those 61 cities and correlated those variables with the LIRA. We concluded that lambda and R0 are more associated with the number of cases than LIRA. In addition, the average R0 for the 2006/2007 dengue season was almost as high as that calculated for the 2001/2002 season, the worst in Brazilian history.
Coelho
Giovanini E
GE
Programa Nacional de Controle da Dengue, Ministério da Saúde, Brasília, Brasil.
Burattini
Marcelo Nascimento
MN
Teixeira
Maria da Glória
Mda G
Coutinho
Francisco Antonio Bezerra
FA
Massad
Eduardo
E
D000330:Aedes; D000818:Animals; D001938:Brazil / Q000453:epidemiology; D003715:Dengue / Q000453:epidemiology*; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007303:Insect Vectors; D007814:Larva; D011156:Population Density; D011159:Population Surveillance; D012621:Seasons