title: Prognostic models and risk scores: can we accurately predict postoperative nausea and vomiting in children after craniotomy?
abstract: Postoperative nausea and vomiting (PONV) is a problem for many children after craniotomy. Prognostic models and risk scores help identify who is at risk for an adverse event such as PONV to help guide clinical care. The purpose of this article is to assess whether an existing prognostic model or risk score can predict PONV in children after craniotomy. The concepts of transportability, calibration, and discrimination are presented to identify what is required to have a valid tool for clinical use. Although previous work may inform clinical practice and guide future research, existing prognostic models and risk scores do not appear to be options for predicting PONV in children undergoing craniotomy. However, until risk factors are further delineated, followed by the development and validation of prognostic models and risk scores that include children after craniotomy, clinical judgment in the context of current research may serve as a guide for clinical care in this population.
authors.affiliation: Canadian Child Health Clinician Scientist Program, Faculty of Nursing, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada. smn@ualberta.ca.
authors.forename: Susan M
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Neufeld
authors.forename: Christine V
authors.initials: CV
authors.lastname: Newburn-Cook
authors.forename: Jane E
authors.initials: JE
authors.lastname: Drummond
mesh_terms: D002648:Child; D003399:Craniotomy / Q000009:adverse effects*; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D020250:Postoperative Nausea and Vomiting / Q000453:epidemiology*; D011379:Prognosis; D018570:Risk Assessment