Randomness in retrospect: exploring the interactions between memory and randomness cognition.
People tend to believe that sequences of random events produce fewer and shorter streaks than is actually the case. Although this error has been demonstrated repeatedly and in many forms, nearly all studies of randomness cognition have focused on how people think about random events occurring in the present or future. This article examines how our biased beliefs about randomness interact with properties of memory to influence our judgments about and memory for past random events. We explore this interaction by examining how beliefs about randomness affect our memory for random events and how certain properties of memory alter our tendency to categorize events as random. Across three experiments, we demonstrate an interaction between randomness cognition and three well-established but distinct properties of memory: (1) the reconstructive nature of memory, (2) primacy and recency effects, and (3) duration neglect. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.
Olivola
Christopher Y
CY
Department of Psychology, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08540, USA. colivola@princeton.edu
Oppenheimer
Daniel M
DM
D003071:Cognition; D006801:Humans; D008568:Memory; D011584:Psychology / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D011897:Random Allocation