Estimating the lifetime risk of a diagnosis of the HIV infection in 33 states, 2004-2005.
OBJECTIVE
We estimated lifetime risk and age-conditional risk of being diagnosed with HIV in 33 states with name-based HIV reporting.


METHODS
We used vital statistics data on general and HIV-specific mortality, census data, and HIV surveillance data to calculate cross-sectional, period-specific (2004-2005), and age-specific probabilities of an HIV diagnosis. The probabilities were applied to a hypothetical cohort of 10 million live births, and estimates were derived for the lifetime risk, from birth, of being diagnosed with HIV.


RESULTS
The estimated lifetime risk of being diagnosed with HIV was 1.87% for males (95% confidence limit: 1.86 to 1.89) or 1 in 53 males and 0.71% for females (95% confidence limit: 0.70-0.72) or 1 in 141 females. Blacks and Hispanics experienced higher estimated lifetime risk of HIV than whites: 6.23% or 1 in 16 for blacks, 2.88% or 1 in 35 for Hispanics, 0.96% or 1 in 104 for white males; 3.29% or 1 in 30 for blacks, 0.88% or 1 in 114 for Hispanics, and 0.17% or 1 in 588 for white females. The highest risk of HIV diagnosis was observed among people in their 30s.


CONCLUSIONS
These estimates may help to communicate the risk of HIV infection to affected communities, increase public awareness, and promote early detection and prevention efforts for HIV.
Hall
H Irene
HI
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30333, USA. ixh1@cdc.gov
An
Qian
Q
Hutchinson
Angela B
AB
Sansom
Stephanie
S
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002648:Child; D005260:Female; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000208:ethnology / Q000209:etiology*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D012306:Risk; D012737:Sex Factors; D013997:Time Factors; D014481:United States