title: Remaining lifetime and absolute 10-year probabilities of osteoporotic fracture in Swiss men and women.
abstract: CONCLUSIONS
  Remaining lifetime and absolute 10-year probabilities for osteoporotic fractures were determined by gender, age, and BMD values. Remaining lifetime probability at age 50 years was 20.2% in men and 51.3% in women and increased with advancing age and decreasing BMD. The study validates the elements required to populate a Swiss-specific FRAX model.
  
  
  BACKGROUND
  Switzerland belongs to high-risk countries for osteoporosis. Based on demographic projections, burden will still increase. We assessed remaining lifetime and absolute 10-year probabilities for osteoporotic fractures by gender, age and BMD in order to populate FRAX algorithm for Switzerland.
  
  
  METHODS
  Osteoporotic fracture incidence was determined from national epidemiological data for hospitalised fractured patients from the Swiss Federal Office of Statistics in 2000 and results of a prospective Swiss cohort with almost 5,000 fractured patients in 2006. Validated BMD-associated fracture risk was used together with national death incidence and risk tables to determine remaining lifetime and absolute 10-year fracture probabilities for hip and major osteoporotic (hip, spine, distal radius, proximal humerus) fractures.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Major osteoporotic fractures incidence was 773 and 2,078 per 100,000 men and women aged 50 and older. Corresponding remaining lifetime probabilities at age 50 were 20.2% and 51.3%. Hospitalisation for clinical spine, distal radius, and proximal humerus fractures reached 25%, 30% and 50%, respectively. Absolute 10-year probability of osteoporotic fracture increased with advancing age and decreasing BMD and was higher in women than in men.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This study validates the elements required to populate a Swiss-specific FRAX model, a country at highest risk for osteoporotic fractures.
authors.affiliation: Osteoporosis Policlinic, Inselspital, Bern University Hospital and University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland. kurt.lippuner@insel.ch
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Lippuner
authors.forename: H
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Johansson
authors.forename: J A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Kanis
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Rizzoli
mesh_terms: D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D015519:Bone Density; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006620:Hip Fractures / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology; D006760:Hospitalization / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008017:Life Expectancy; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D010024:Osteoporosis / Q000150:complications / Q000453:epidemiology*; D011885:Radius Fractures / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D012737:Sex Factors; D012784:Shoulder Fractures / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology; D016103:Spinal Fractures / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology; D013557:Switzerland / Q000453:epidemiology; D013997:Time Factors