title: From Oxford to Hawaii ecophysiological barriers limit human progression in ten sport monuments.
abstract: In order to understand the determinants and trends of human performance evolution, we analyzed ten outdoor events among the oldest and most popular in sports history. Best performances of the Oxford-Cambridge boat race (since 1836), the channel crossing in swimming (1875), the hour cycling record (1893), the Elfstedentocht speed skating race (1909), the cross country ski Vasaloppet (1922), the speed ski record (1930), the Streif down-hill in Kitzbühel (1947), the eastward and westward sailing transatlantic records (1960) and the triathlon Hawaii ironman (1978) all follow a similar evolutive pattern, best described through a piecewise exponential decaying model (r(2) = 0.95+/-0.07). The oldest events present highest progression curvature during their early phase. Performance asymptotic limits predicted from the model may be achieved in fourty years (2049+/-32 y). Prolonged progression may be anticipated in disciplines which further rely on technology such as sailing and cycling. Human progression in outdoor sports tends to asymptotic limits depending on physiological and environmental parameters and may temporarily benefit from further technological progresses.
authors.affiliation: IRMES, Institut de Recherche Médicale et d'Epidémiologie du Sport, INSEP, Paris, France. Francois.Desgorces@univ-paris5.fr
authors.forename: François-Denis
authors.initials: FD
authors.lastname: Desgorces
authors.forename: Geoffroy
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Berthelot
authors.forename: Nour
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: El Helou
authors.forename: Valérie
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Thibault
authors.forename: Marion
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Guillaume
authors.forename: Muriel
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Tafflet
authors.forename: Olivier
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Hermine
authors.forename: Jean-François
authors.initials: JF
authors.lastname: Toussaint
mesh_terms: D005075:Biological Evolution; D003163:Competitive Behavior; D017753:Ecosystem; D004739:England; D005843:Geography; D006254:Hawaii; D049672:History, 19th Century; D049673:History, 20th Century; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D010806:Physical Education and Training / Q000639:trends*; D010807:Physical Endurance / Q000502:physiology; D010809:Physical Fitness; D013177:Sports / Q000266:history* / Q000502:physiology / Q000639:trends*; D013647:Task Performance and Analysis