title: Potential impacts of schedule changes, waning immunity and vaccine uptake on measles elimination in Australia.
abstract: The second dose of MMR vaccine (MMR2) is scheduled at 4 years in Australia and the USA but earlier in some European countries. We modelled the effect on measles elimination status and population susceptibility of shifting delivery of MMR2 from 4 years to 18 months using relevant Australian data. Susceptibility in young children was reduced but elimination was not sustainable past 2015 if 6% of vaccinated seroconverters became susceptible after 10 years. One-dose MMR coverage of 96% or greater maintained elimination more effectively than modelled changes in scheduling, suggesting that maximising one-dose MMR coverage should be the highest priority.
authors.affiliation: National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance of Vaccine Preventable Diseases (NCIRS), Level 2, Children's Hospital at Westmead, NSW 2145, Sydney, Australia. James.Wood@unsw.edu.au
authors.forename: James G
authors.initials: JG
authors.lastname: Wood
authors.forename: Heather F
authors.initials: HF
authors.lastname: Gidding
authors.forename: Anita
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Heywood
authors.forename: Kristine
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Macartney
authors.forename: Peter B
authors.initials: PB
authors.lastname: McIntyre
authors.forename: C Raina
authors.initials: CR
authors.lastname: Macintyre
mesh_terms: D000367:Age Factors; D000914:Antibodies, Viral / Q000097:blood*; D001315:Australia / Q000453:epidemiology; D002675:Child, Preschool; D004198:Disease Susceptibility / Q000276:immunology; D006801:Humans; D007109:Immunity / Q000276:immunology; D007115:Immunization Schedule; D007223:Infant; D008457:Measles / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control*; D008458:Measles Vaccine / Q000008:administration & dosage / Q000627:therapeutic use; D022542:Measles-Mumps-Rubella Vaccine / Q000008:administration & dosage / Q000627:therapeutic use; D008954:Models, Biological
chemical_list: D000914:Antibodies, Viral; D008458:Measles Vaccine; D022542:Measles-Mumps-Rubella Vaccine