title: Ten-year fracture probability identifies women who will benefit from clodronate therapy--additional results from a double-blind, placebo-controlled randomised study.
abstract: Fracture risk prediction can be enhanced by the concurrent assessment of other clinical risk factors. This study demonstrates that the estimation of an individual's 10-year probability of fracture by the FRAX algorithm identifies patients at high risk of fracture who will respond to bisphosphonate therapy.
  
  
  BACKGROUND
  Treatments for osteoporosis are targeted largely to patients with low bone density (BMD) or a prior fragility fracture. Fracture risk prediction can be enhanced by the concurrent assessment of other clinical risk factors, but it is important to determine whether the risk so identified can be reduced by intervention. We determined the effect of a bisphosphonate on fracture rates when risk was calculated using a new risk algorithm (FRAX).
  
  
  METHODS
  Women aged 75 years or more were recruited to a randomised, double-blind controlled trial of 800 mg oral clodronate (Bonefos) daily over 3 years. Baseline clinical risk factors were entered in the FRAX model to compute the 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fractures with or without input of femoral neck BMD. The interaction between fracture probability and treatment efficacy was examined by Poisson regression.
  
  
  RESULTS
  In 3,974 women, the interaction between fracture probability and treatment efficacy was significant when probability was assessed without BMD (p = 0.043), but not when BMD was included (p = 0.10). Efficacy was more evident in those deemed at highest risk. For example women lying at the 75th percentile of fracture probability in the absence of BMD (10-year probability 24%) treatment reduced fracture risk by 27% (HR 0.73, 95%CI 0.58-0.92). In those with a fracture probability of 30% (90th percentile), the fracture risk reduction was 38% (HR 0.62, 0.46-0.84).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The estimation of an individual's 10-year probability of fracture by the FRAX algorithm identifies patients at high risk of fracture who will respond to bisphosphonate therapy.
authors.affiliation: WHO Collaborating Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK. e.v.mccloskey@shef.ac.uk
authors.forename: E V
authors.initials: EV
authors.lastname: McCloskey
authors.forename: H
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Johansson
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Oden
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Vasireddy
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Kayan
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Pande
authors.forename: T
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Jalava
authors.forename: J A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Kanis
mesh_terms: D015502:Absorptiometry, Photon; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000465:Algorithms; D015519:Bone Density / Q000187:drug effects; D050071:Bone Density Conservation Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D004002:Clodronic Acid / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D004311:Double-Blind Method; D005260:Female; D050723:Fractures, Bone / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control*; D006621:Hip Joint / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging; D006801:Humans; D015663:Osteoporosis, Postmenopausal / Q000188:drug therapy* / Q000453:epidemiology; D011336:Probability; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D016896:Treatment Outcome; D006113:United Kingdom / Q000453:epidemiology
chemical_list: D050071:Bone Density Conservation Agents; D004002:Clodronic Acid