Injury severity analysis of accidents involving young male drivers in Great Britain.
BACKGROUND
Young male drivers are over-represented in traffic accidents; they were involved in 14% of fatal accidents from 1991 to 2003 while holding only 8% of all drivers licenses in the UK. In this study, a subset of the UK national road accident data from 1991 to 2003 has been analyzed. The primary aim is to determine how to best use monetary and progressive resources to understand how road safety measures will reduce the severity of accidents involving young male drivers in both London and Great Britain.


METHODS
Ordered probit models were used to identify specific accident characteristics that increase the likelihood of one of three categorical outcomes of accident severity: slight, serious, or fatal.


RESULTS
Characteristics found to lead to a higher likelihood of serious and fatal injuries are generally similar across Great Britain and London but are different from those predicted to lead to a higher likelihood of slight injuries. Those characteristics predicted to lead to serious and fatal injuries include driving in darkness, between Friday and Sunday, on roads with a speed limit of 60 mph, on single carriageways, overtaking, skidding, hitting an object off the carriageway, and when passing the site of a previous accident. Characteristics predicted to lead to slight injuries include driving in daylight, between Monday and Thursday, on roads with a speed limit of 30 mph or less, at a roundabout, waiting to move, and when an animal is on the carriageway.


CONCLUSIONS
These results aid the selection of policy options that are most likely to reduce the severity of accidents involving young male drivers.
Gray
Rebecca C
RC
Centre for Transport Studies, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom. Rebecca.Gray@tfl.gov.uk
Quddus
Mohammed A
MA
Evans
Andrew
A
D000063:Accidents, Traffic / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D006291:Health Policy; D006801:Humans; D015601:Injury Severity Score; D008131:London; D008297:Male; D015233:Models, Statistical; D018986:Motor Vehicles / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D012449:Safety / Q000592:standards / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006113:United Kingdom / Q000453:epidemiology; D055815:Young Adult