[Overall goal of 20% reduction in age-adjusted cancer mortality under 75 years of age--is it achievable within 10 years?].
The Basic Plan to Promote Cancer Control Programs has stated an overall goal to decrease the age-adjusted cancer mortality of people under 75 years of age by 20% within the next 10 years. The announced basis for the estimation and my view on the possibilities are shown here. The estimated goal of a 20% reduction is to be achieved as the sum of each reduction of 10% by the natural course, 1.6% by a 50% decrease in smokers, 4.0% by a screening rate of 50%, and 4.7% from the nationwide standardization of cancer cure. Each component has hurdles to overcome, and it will be difficult to achieve the targets but for dramatic changes in our social environment such as a massive hike in tobacco tax, a smoking ban in the workplace and public places, a law mandating cancer screening, and reform of the medical-care system. Meanwhile, an approximate 10% reduction was observed during 2000 to 2005. Therefore, 20% reduction would be achievable even without any cancer control action.
Tsugane
Shoichiro
S
Epidemiology and Prevention Division, Research Center for Cancer Prevention and Screening, National Cancer Center.
D055088:Early Detection of Cancer; D035082:Federal Government; D006287:Health Planning Guidelines; D009369:Neoplasms / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000401:mortality*; D012907:Smoking / Q000009:adverse effects; D013997:Time Factors