title: Childhood predictors of adult attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder: results from the World Health Organization World Mental Health Survey Initiative.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Although it is known that childhood attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) often persists into adulthood, childhood predictors of this persistence have not been widely studied.
  
  
  METHODS
  Childhood history of ADHD and adult ADHD were assessed in 10 countries in the World Health Organization World Mental Health Surveys. Logistic regression analysis was used to study associations of retrospectively reported childhood risk factors with adult persistence among the 629 adult respondents with childhood ADHD. Risk factors included age; sex; childhood ADHD symptom profiles, severity, and treatment; comorbid child/adolescent DSM-IV disorders; childhood family adversities; and child/adolescent exposure to traumatic events.
  
  
  RESULTS
  An average of 50% of children with ADHD (range: 32.8%-84.1% across countries) continued to meet DSM-IV criteria for ADHD as adults. Persistence was strongly related to childhood ADHD symptom profile (highest persistence associated with the attentional plus impulsive-hyperactive type, odds ratio [OR]=12.4, compared with the lowest associated with the impulsive-hyperactive type), symptom severity (OR=2.0), comorbid major depressive disorder (MDD; OR=2.2), high comorbidity (>or=3 child/adolescent disorders in addition to ADHD; OR=1.7), paternal (but not maternal) anxiety mood disorder (OR=2.4), and parental antisocial personality disorder (OR=2.2). A multivariate risk profile of these variables significantly predicts persistence of ADHD into adulthood (area under the receiving operator characteristic curve=.76).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  A substantial proportion of children with ADHD continue to meet full criteria for ADHD as adults. A multivariate risk index comprising variables that can be assessed in adolescence predicts persistence with good accuracy.
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychiatry, Autonomous University of Puebla, Puebla, Mexico.
authors.forename: Carmen
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Lara
authors.forename: John
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Fayyad
authors.forename: Ron
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: de Graaf
authors.forename: Ronald C
authors.initials: RC
authors.lastname: Kessler
authors.forename: Sergio
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Aguilar-Gaxiola
authors.forename: Matthias
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Angermeyer
authors.forename: Koen
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Demytteneare
authors.forename: Giovanni
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: de Girolamo
authors.forename: Josep Maria
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Haro
authors.forename: Robert
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Jin
authors.forename: Elie G
authors.initials: EG
authors.lastname: Karam
authors.forename: Jean-Pierre
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: Lépine
authors.forename: Maria Elena Medina
authors.initials: ME
authors.lastname: Mora
authors.forename: Johan
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Ormel
authors.forename: José
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Posada-Villa
authors.forename: Nancy
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Sampson
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D001289:Attention Deficit Disorder with Hyperactivity / Q000453:epidemiology*; D002648:Child; D015897:Comorbidity; D003625:Data Collection; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D011569:Psychiatric Status Rating Scales; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D014944:World Health Organization