How many well vs. unwell days can you expect over 10 years, once you become depressed?
OBJECTIVE
Prognostic studies of major depression have mainly focused on episode remission and relapse, and only a limited number of studies have examined long-term course of depressive symptomatology at threshold and subthreshold levels.


METHODS
The Group for Longitudinal Affective Disorders Study has conducted prospective serial assessments of a cohort of heretofore untreated major depressive episodes for 10 years under naturalistic conditions.


RESULTS
Of the 94 patients in the cohort, the follow-up rate was 70% of the 11,280 person-months. Around 77% of the follow-up months were spent in euthymia, 16% in subthreshold depression and 7% in major depression. Duration of the index episode before reaching recovery was the only significant predictor of the ensuing well time.


CONCLUSIONS
On average, patients with major depression starting treatment today may expect to spend three quarters of the next decade in euthymia but the remaining one quarter in subthreshold or threshold depression.
Furukawa
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TA
Department of Psychiatry and Cognitive-Behavioral Medicine, Nagoya City University Graduate School of Medical Sciences, Nagoya, Japan. furukawa@med.nagoya-cu.ac.jp
Yoshimura
R
R
Harai
H
H
Imaizumi
T
T
Takeuchi
H
H
Kitamura
T
T
Takahashi
K
K
D000328:Adult; D000928:Antidepressive Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use; D015928:Cognitive Behavioral Therapy / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D003865:Major Depressive Disorder / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000628:therapy; D039721:Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D007099:Imipramine / Q000627:therapeutic use; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011446:Prospective Studies; D018582:Sick Leave / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D013997:Time Factors
D000928:Antidepressive Agents; D007099:Imipramine