Information-related changes in contact patterns may trigger oscillations in the endemic prevalence of infectious diseases.
It is well known that behavioral changes in contact patterns may significantly affect the spread of an epidemic outbreak. Here we focus on simple endemic models for recurrent epidemics, by modelling the social contact rate as a function of the available information on the present and the past disease prevalence. We show that social behavior change alone may trigger sustained oscillations. This indicates that human behavior might be a critical explaining factor of oscillations in time-series of endemic diseases. Finally, we briefly show how the inclusion of seasonal variations in contacts may imply chaos.
d'Onofrio
Alberto
A
Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, European Institute of Oncology, Via Ripamonti 435, 20141 Milano, Italy. alberto.donofrio@ieo.it
Manfredi
Piero
P
D000818:Animals; D003141:Communicable Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000523:psychology / Q000635:transmission; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D006801:Humans; D008954:Models, Biological; D015233:Models, Statistical; D015995:Prevalence; D012621:Seasons; D012919:Social Behavior