Converting endangered species categories to probabilities of extinction for phylogenetic conservation prioritization.
BACKGROUND
Categories of imperilment like the global IUCN Red List have been transformed to probabilities of extinction and used to rank species by the amount of imperiled evolutionary history they represent (e.g. by the Edge of Existence programme). We investigate the stability of such lists when ranks are converted to probabilities of extinction under different scenarios.


RESULTS
Using a simple example and computer simulation, we show that preserving the categories when converting such list designations to probabilities of extinction does not guarantee the stability of the resulting lists.


CONCLUSIONS
Care must be taken when choosing a suitable transformation, especially if conservation dollars are allocated to species in a ranked fashion. We advocate routine sensitivity analyses.
Mooers
Arne Ø
AØ
Institute for Advanced Study, Berlin, Germany. amooers@sfu.ca
Faith
Daniel P
DP
Maddison
Wayne P
WP
D044822:Biodiversity; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources / Q000379:methods*; D016208:Databases, Factual; D053476:Extinction, Biological; D010802:Phylogeny; D011336:Probability; D013045:Species Specificity; D014197:Trees / Q000502:physiology