title: Equine West Nile virus disease occurrence and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index.
abstract: The association between the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and periods of above- or below-average reported cases of equine West Nile virus encephalomyelitis, reported in Texas between 2002 and 2004, was investigated. A time-series of case reports, using a biweekly window, was constructed. Because of the disparity in number of cases reported (1698, 672 and 101 in 2002, 2003 and 2004, respectively), data were standardized by calculating the number of cases reported during each biweekly period as a ratio of the annual average number of cases reported. The mean NDVI (0.439) in Texas in biweekly periods in which cases were reported was significantly higher (P<0.001) than the mean NDVI (0.396) in periods in which cases were not reported. The best-fitting model of standardized case ratios included the mean NDVI in the preceding 4-week period. This association was further investigated in the two ecological regions of Texas in which most cases were reported during the study period--Prairies and Lakes, and the Panhandle Plains. Standardized case ratios in the Prairies and Lakes ecoregion were best predicted by NDVI estimated 19-20 weeks previously, whereas standardized case ratios in the Panhandle Plains region were most strongly associated with NDVI estimated 1-4 weeks previously, indicating that the temporal lag between appropriate environmental conditions and resulting increased risk of WNV transmission can vary in different regions. The associations identified could be useful in an early-warning system of increased disease risk.
authors.affiliation: Department of Veterinary Integrative Biosciences, MS 4458, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843-4458, USA. m.ward@usyd.edu.au
authors.forename: Michael P
authors.initials: MP
authors.lastname: Ward
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D017753:Ecosystem; D006734:Horse Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000821:virology*; D006736:Horses; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012621:Seasons; D013781:Texas / Q000453:epidemiology; D014901:West Nile Fever / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000821:virology; D014902:West Nile virus / Q000254:growth & development*