Capture--recapture and anchored prevalence estimation of injecting drug users in England: national and regional estimates.
Capture-recapture (C-RC) using four data sources, one of which accounted for 81% of captured injectors, and multiple indicator methods (MIM) were used to obtain national, regional and local estimates of the prevalence of injecting drug use among opiate and/or crack cocaine users in England. Persons aged 15 to 64 years, in contact with health and/or criminal justice services during 2005/2006, and known to be using opiates and/or crack cocaine and injecting drugs were included in the C-RC analysis. The MIM analysis included indicators relating to drug treatment, drug-related deaths, population density and drug offences.There were an estimated 130,000 opiate and/or crack cocaine users who injected drugs in 2005/06 (95% confidence interval 125,800 to 137,000), corresponding to 3.9 per thousand of the population aged 15 to 64 years (95% confidence interval 3.8-4.1). Regional variation in the prevalence of injecting was evident, ranging from 6.1 per thousand of the population aged 15 to 64 years in Yorkshire and the Humber (95% confidence interval 5.6 to 6.6) to 2.3 per thousand in the East of England (95% confidence interval 1.8 to 2.9). Application of gender and age-group distributions for treated injecting drug users (IDUs) to the prevalence estimates suggested that there were 97,200 male injectors (95% confidence interval 94,000 to 102,500) and 63,600 female injectors aged 25 to 34 years (95% confidence interval 61,500 to 67,000).The prevalence estimates provide a basis from which numbers of current IDUs infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) can be approximated.
Hay
Gordon
G
Centre for Drug Misuse Research, University of Glasgow, 89 Dumbarton Road, Glasgow G11 6PW, UK. g.hay@socsci.gla.ac.uk
Gannon
Maria
M
MacDougall
Jane
J
Eastwood
Catherine
C
Williams
Kate
K
Millar
Tim
T
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D016001:Confidence Intervals; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D003625:Data Collection / Q000379:methods; D004739:England / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D012044:Regression Analysis; D015819:Substance Abuse, Intravenous / Q000453:epidemiology*; D055815:Young Adult