title: [Rainfall and acute febrile syndrome in a dengue-endemic area].
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Describing patterns of acute febrile syndrome (AFS) consultation related to dengue and evaluating association with rainfall.
  
  
  METHODS
  318 undifferentiated AFS patients were detected in two clinics during a 7-month period (March to September) and then included in systematic clinical follow-up. 31 % of them (81/281) were IgM positive for dengue. Rainfall (litres/square meter-day) during the previous weeks was evaluated as a variable for predicting consultation patterns.
  
  
  RESULTS
  June, July and September were the months in which the greatest number of AFS cases occurred. Cases of dengue were only significantly more frequent during July. When evaluating the previous weeks' rainfall patterns, consultation for AFS was seen to be associated with the average rainfall registered 5 weeks beforehand and such association was independent of the institution and/or month (incidence rate ratio IRR=1,04; 1-1.08 95 %CI, p=0.045). On the other hand, 5 consecutive weeks' average rainfall was an independent predictor of consultation for dengue 4 weeks later on (RTI=1 ,6 ; 1,15-2,22 95 %CI, p=0.006). A linear relationship was thus proposed (regarding these sentinel clinics) between consultation for dengue and rainfall: lt/mt-day (5 weeks' average rainfall) X 0 ,72 (0,60-0,84 95 %CI, p<0.001) = cases for each 100 000 habitants per week (4 weeks later).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Studying rainfall could predict the pattern of consultation for dengue in endemic regions.
authors.affiliation: Centro de Investigaciones Epidemiológicas, Universidad Industrial de Santander, Colombia. fre_diazq@yahoo.com
authors.forename: Fredi
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Díaz-Quijano
authors.forename: Andrés
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: González-Rangel
authors.forename: Andrea
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Gómez-Capacho
authors.forename: Reinaldo
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Espíndola-Gómez
authors.forename: Ruth
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Martínez-Vega
authors.forename: Luis
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Villar-Centeno
mesh_terms: D000208:Acute Disease; D002980:Climate; D003105:Colombia / Q000453:epidemiology; D003627:Data Interpretation, Statistical; D003715:Dengue / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology*; D019353:Endemic Diseases; D005334:Fever / Q000453:epidemiology*; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D016012:Poisson Distribution; D011891:Rain; D012621:Seasons; D013577:Syndrome; D013997:Time Factors