An evidence synthesis approach to estimating Hepatitis C prevalence in England and Wales.
In England and Wales, routine monitoring has been consistently showing an increase in mortality and morbidity due to infection with the Hepatitis C Virus (HCV). However, the magnitude of the underlying epidemic is still the subject of debate. In this paper we present estimates of the number of individuals aged 15-59 chronically infected with HCV in 2003, derived from a Bayesian synthesis of information available from multiple sources on the size of the groups at risk for HCV and the risk specific anti-HCV prevalence. Results show that the number of chronic infections is of the order of 142,000 (95% CrI: 90,000, 231,000), with the majority (85%, 95% CrI: 74%, 93%) in injecting drug users and about 80% (95% CrI: 74%, 84%) in the age group 15-44.
De Angelis
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Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections, London and MRC Biostatistics Unit, Institute of Public Health, Cambridge, UK. daniela.deangelis@mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk
Sweeting
M
M
Ades
Ae
A
Hickman
M
M
Hope
V
V
Ramsay
M
M
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D004739:England / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D016174:Hepacivirus / Q000472:pathogenicity; D019698:Hepatitis C, Chronic / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015819:Substance Abuse, Intravenous / Q000453:epidemiology; D014852:Wales / Q000453:epidemiology; D055815:Young Adult