[Changes of mortality and causes of death from 1970 to 2005 and decomposition analysis in Shandong province].
OBJECTIVE
To describe the trend of overall mortality and major causes of death in Shandong population from 1970 to 2005, and to quantitatively estimate the influential factors.


METHODS
Trends of overall mortality and major causes of death were described using indicators such as mortality rates and age-adjusted death rates by comparing three large-scale mortality surveys in Shandong province. Difference decomposing method was applied to estimate the contribution of demographic and non-demographic factors for the change of mortality.


RESULTS
The total mortality had had a slight change since 1970s, but had increased since 1990s. However, both the mortality rates of age-adjusted and age-specific decreased significantly. The mortality of Group I diseases including infectious diseases as well maternal and perinatal diseases decreased drastically. By contrast, the mortality of non-communicable chronic diseases (NCDs) including cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), cancer and injuries increased. The sustentation of recent overall mortality was caused by the interaction of demographic and non-demographic factors which worked oppositely. Non-demographic factors were responsible for the decrease of Group I disease and the increase of injuries. With respect to the increase of NCDs as a whole, demographic factors might take the full responsibility and the non-demographic factors were the opposite force to reduce the mortality. Nevertheless, for the increase of some leading NCD diseases as CVDs and cancer, the increase was mainly due to non-demographic rather than demographic factors.


CONCLUSIONS
Through the interaction of the aggravation of ageing population and the enhancement of non-demographic effect, the overall mortality in Shandong would maintain a balance or slightly rise in the coming years. Group I diseases in Shandong had been effectively under control. Strategies focusing on disease control and prevention should be transferred to chronic diseases, especially leading NCDs, such as CVDs and cancer.
Ma
Ji-xiang
JX
Zhang
Ji-yu
JY
Xu
Ai-qiang
AQ
Sun
Jian-dong
JD
Guo
Xiao-lei
XL
Lu
Zi-long
ZL
Li
Hui-qing
HQ
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D002423:Cause of Death; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D002681:China; D003710:Demography; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008875:Middle Aged; D009026:Mortality / Q000639:trends*; D055815:Young Adult