title: The association between psychiatric diagnosis and violent re-offending in adult offenders in the community.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  High rates of repeat offending are common across nations that are socially and culturally different. Although psychiatric disorders are believed to be risk factors for violent reoffending, the available evidence is sparse and liable to bias.
  
  
  METHODS
  We conducted a historical cohort study in Sweden of a selected sample of 4828 offenders given community sentences who were assessed by a psychiatrist during 1988-2001, and followed up for an average of 5 years for first violent offence, death, or emigration, using information from national registers. Hazard ratios for violent offending were calculated by Cox regression models.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Nearly a third of the sample (n = 1506 or 31.3%) offended violently during follow-up (mean duration: 4.8 years). After adjustment for socio-demographic and criminal history variables, substance use disorders (hazard ratio 1.97, 95% CI, 1.40-2.77) and personality disorders (hazard ratio 1.71, 1.20-2.44) were significantly associated with an increased risk of violent offending. No other diagnoses were related to recidivism risk. Adding information on diagnoses of substance use and personality disorders to data recorded on age, sex, and criminal history improved only minimally the prediction of violent offending.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Diagnoses of substance use and personality disorders are associated with the risk of subsequent violent offending in community offenders about as strongly as are its better documented demographic and criminal history risk factors. Despite this, assessment of such disorders in addition to demographic and criminal history factors enhances only minimally the prediction of violent offending in the community.
authors.affiliation: 1Department of Psychology, University of Stockholm, Stockholm, Sweden. c.m.g@telia.com
authors.forename: Martin
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Grann
authors.forename: John
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Danesh
authors.forename: Seena
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Fazel
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D001714:Bipolar Disorder / Q000453:epidemiology; D015331:Cohort Studies; D003415:Crime / Q000523:psychology*; D003710:Demography; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D008607:Intellectual Disability / Q000453:epidemiology; D001523:Mental Disorders / Q000453:epidemiology*; D010552:Personality Assessment; D011618:Psychotic Disorders / Q000453:epidemiology*; D012008:Recurrence; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012307:Risk Factors; D012559:Schizophrenia / Q000453:epidemiology; D013548:Sweden / Q000453:epidemiology; D014754:Violence / Q000523:psychology*