title: Predicting successful treatment outcome of web-based self-help for problem drinkers: secondary analysis from a randomized controlled trial.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Web-based self-help interventions for problem drinking are coming of age. They have shown promising results in terms of cost-effectiveness, and they offer opportunities to reach out on a broad scale to problem drinkers. The question now is whether certain groups of problem drinkers benefit more from such Web-based interventions than others.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  We sought to identify baseline, client-related predictors of the effectiveness of Drinking Less, a 24/7, free-access, interactive, Web-based self-help intervention without therapist guidance for problem drinkers who want to reduce their alcohol consumption. The intervention is based on cognitive-behavioral and self-control principles.
  
  
  METHODS
  We conducted secondary analysis of data from a pragmatic randomized trial with follow-up at 6 and 12 months. Participants (N = 261) were adult problem drinkers in the Dutch general population with a weekly alcohol consumption above 210 g of ethanol for men or 140 g for women, or consumption of at least 60 g (men) or 40 g (women) one or more days a week over the past 3 months. Six baseline participant characteristics were designated as putative predictors of treatment response: (1) gender, (2) education, (3) Internet use competence (sociodemographics), (4) mean weekly alcohol consumption, (5) prior professional help for alcohol problems (level of problem drinking), and (6) participants' expectancies of Web-based interventions for problem drinking. Intention-to-treat (ITT) analyses, using last-observation-carried-forward (LOCF) data, and regression imputation (RI) were performed to deal with loss to follow-up. Statistical tests for interaction terms were conducted and linear regression analysis was performed to investigate whether the participants' characteristics as measured at baseline predicted positive treatment responses at 6- and 12-month follow-ups.
  
  
  RESULTS
  At 6 months, prior help for alcohol problems predicted a small, marginally significant positive treatment outcome in the RI model only (beta = .18, P = .05, R(2) = .11). At 12 months, females displayed modest predictive power in both imputation models (LOCF: beta = .22, P = .045, R(2) = .02; regression: beta = .27, P = .01, R(2) = .03). Those with higher levels of education exhibited modest predictive power in the LOCF model only (beta = .33, P = .01, R(2) = .03).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Although female and more highly educated users appeared slightly more likely to derive benefit from the Drinking Less intervention, none of the baseline characteristics we studied persuasively predicted a favorable treatment outcome. The Web-based intervention therefore seems well suited for a heterogeneous group of problem drinkers and could hence be offered as a first-step treatment in a stepped-care approach directed at problem drinkers in the general population.
  
  
  BACKGROUND
  International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number (ISRCTN): 47285230; http://www.controlled-trials.com/isrctn47285230 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/5cSR2sMkp).
authors.affiliation: Trimbos Institute, Netherlands Institute of Mental Health and Addiction, Utrecht, The Netherlands. hriper@trimbos.nl
authors.forename: Heleen
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Riper
authors.forename: Jeannet
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Kramer
authors.forename: Max
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Keuken
authors.forename: Filip
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Smit
authors.forename: Gerard
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Schippers
authors.forename: Pim
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Cuijpers
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000428:Alcohol Drinking / Q000523:psychology / Q000628:therapy*; D000437:Alcoholism / Q000523:psychology / Q000534:rehabilitation*; D001294:Attitude to Health; D004522:Educational Status; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007258:Informed Consent; D020407:Internet; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D018579:Patient Selection; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011340:Problem Solving; D012657:Self-Help Groups; D013695:Temperance; D055815:Young Adult