The role of stochastic forcing on the behavior of thermohaline circulation.
The nonlinear nature of the climate system suggests that its reactions to unexpected perturbations could be different from the expected ones. In nonlinear science it is recognized as a promising paradigm that stochastic fluctuations can generate order or other counterintuitive effects. Thus, noise sources, adequately coupled to a nonlinear system, may give rise to a rich new phenomenology not present in a deterministic noiseless scenario. In this review we focus attention on thermohaline circulation (THC). THC presents two modes of operation; one state shows active THC and the other inactive. Previous episodes of transitions between both states of THC observed in paleoclimatic records and the influence of this circulation on climate have resulted in detailed investigations on the dynamics of the THC. A weakening or a collapse of this current could trigger the onset of a new Younger Dryas. In this review the introduction of stochastic forcing in key parameters, both in a simple box model and in an earth model of intermediate complexity, provokes a weakening and even a shutdown of the THC. The consequences of this weakening are observed in different variables. The surface air temperature and the sea surface temperature are dominated by cooling of the Northern Hemisphere. Changes in the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and in precipitation are observed. There is also an intensification of the North Atlantic Oscillation values during winter. These results reinforce the necessity to consider stochastic sources in climate models to improve our understanding of the climate.
Lorenzo
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MN
Grupo de Física de la Atmósfera y del Océano, University of Vigo, Facultad de Ciencias, As Lagoas, Ourense, Spain. nlorenzo@uvigo.es
Taboada
J J
JJ
Iglesias
I
I
Alvarez
I
I