title: Validation of the current prognostic models for nonmetastatic renal cell carcinoma after nephrectomy in Chinese population: a 15-year single center experience.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To explore the applicability of the current prognostic models for nonmetastatic renal cell carcinoma in the Chinese population based on a single center experience.
  
  
  METHODS
  Clinical and pathological variables of 653 nonmetastatic renal cell carcinoma patients were retrospectively reviewed. Seven models were used to predict the prognosis, including the Yaycioglu model, the Cindolo model, the University of California Los Angeles Integrated Staging System model, the stage, size, grade, and necrosis model, the Kattan nomogram, the Sorbellini nomogram and the Karakiewicz nomogram. Three different end-points were used for validation, including overall survival, cancer-specific survival, and recurrence-free survival. Survival was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Discriminating ability was assessed using the Harrell's concordance-index.
  
  
  RESULTS
  At the last follow up, 159 patients had died due to various causes, and disease recurrence occurred in 156 patients. The discriminating ability of all models was confirmed in the Chinese population. Nomograms discriminate better than algorithms, regardless of end-points. The Kattan nomogram was the most accurate, with the highest concordance-indexes of 0.752, 0.793 and 0.841 for overall survival, cancer-specific survival, and recurrence-free survival, respectively.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The current prognostic models were developed and validated entirely based on Caucasian populations. This study defines the general applicability of the models for Chinese patients with nonmetastatic renal cell carcinoma treated with nephrectomy. The Kattan model was found to be the most accurate. The Cindolo model performed well in some situations, although only including clinical presentation and size of tumor. Therefore, models should be chosen according to different environments and purposes.
authors.affiliation: Department of Urology, Shandong Provincial Hospital, Shandong University, Jinan, China.
authors.forename: Zheng
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.forename: Jiaju
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Lv
authors.forename: Kejia
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Ding
authors.forename: Qiang
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Fu
authors.forename: Qingwei
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Cao
authors.forename: Facheng
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Wang
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002292:Carcinoma, Renal Cell / Q000401:mortality* / Q000473:pathology* / Q000601:surgery; D002423:Cause of Death; D015331:Cohort Studies; D016001:Confidence Intervals; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007680:Kidney Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality* / Q000473:pathology* / Q000601:surgery; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009367:Neoplasm Staging; D009392:Nephrectomy / Q000379:methods* / Q000401:mortality; D011183:Postoperative Complications / Q000401:mortality; D011336:Probability; D011379:Prognosis; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012737:Sex Factors; D018709:Statistics, Nonparametric; D016019:Survival Analysis; D055815:Young Adult