title: Guessing imagined and live chance events: adults behave like children with live events.
abstract: An established finding is that adults prefer to guess before rather than after a chance event has happened. This is interpreted in terms of aversion to guessing when relatively incompetent: After throwing, the fall could be known. Adults (N=71, mean age 18;11, N=28, mean age 48;0) showed this preference with imagined die-throwing as in the published studies. With live die-throwing, children (N=64, aged 6 and 8 years; N=50, aged 5 and 6 years) and 15-year-olds (N=93, 46) showed the opposite preference, as did 17 adults. Seventeen-year-olds (N=82) were more likely to prefer to guess after throwing with live rather than imagined die-throwing. Reliance on imagined situations in the literature on decision-making under uncertainty ignores the possibility that adults imagine inaccurately how they would really feel: After a real die has been thrown, adults, like children, may feel there is less ambiguity about the outcome.
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychology, Warwick University, Coventry, UK. e.j.robinson@warwick.ac.uk
authors.forename: E J
authors.initials: EJ
authors.lastname: Robinson
authors.forename: J E C
authors.initials: JE
authors.lastname: Pendle
authors.forename: M G
authors.initials: MG
authors.lastname: Rowley
authors.forename: S R
authors.initials: SR
authors.lastname: Beck
authors.forename: K L T
authors.initials: KL
authors.lastname: McColgan
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D002755:Choice Behavior; D003469:Culture; D003657:Decision Making; D005239:Fear; D005260:Female; D005715:Gambling / Q000523:psychology*; D006801:Humans; D007092:Imagination; D007600:Judgment; D008297:Male; D011337:Probability Learning; D020377:Self Efficacy; D012938:Social Perception; D035501:Uncertainty; D055815:Young Adult