title: Land surface anomaly simulations and predictions with a climate model: an El Niño Southern Oscillation case study.
abstract: The ability of climate models to reproduce and predict land surface anomalies is an important but little-studied topic. In this study, an atmosphere and ocean assimilation scheme is used to determine whether HadCM3 can reproduce and predict snow water equivalent and soil moisture during the 1997-1998 El Niño Southern Oscillation event. Soil moisture is reproduced more successfully, though both snow and soil moisture show some predictability at 1- and 4-month lead times. This result suggests that land surface anomalies may be reasonably well initialized for climate model predictions and hydrological applications using atmospheric assimilation methods over a period of time.
authors.affiliation: Environmental Systems Science Centre, University of Reading, 3 Earley Gate, Whiteknights, Reading RG6 6AL, UK. djp@mail.nerc-essc.ac.uk
authors.forename: Debbie
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Putt
authors.forename: Keith
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Haines
authors.forename: Robert
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Gurney
authors.forename: Chunlei
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Liu
mesh_terms: D002980:Climate; D003198:Computer Simulation; D018534:Earth, Planet; D004463:Ecology / Q000379:methods* / Q000639:trends; D004784:Environmental Monitoring / Q000379:methods; D020407:Internet; D055904:Meteorology / Q000379:methods*; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D012984:Software; D014887:Weather