Optimizing U.S. mitigation strategies for the light-duty transportation sector: what we learn from a bottom-up model.
Few integrated analysis models examine significant U.S. transportation greenhouse gas emission reductions within an integrated energy system. Our analysis, using a bottom-up MARKet ALocation (MARKAL) model, found that stringent system-wide CO2 reduction targets will be required to achieve significant CO2 reductions from the transportation sector. Mitigating transportation emission reductions can result in significant changes in personal vehicle technologies, increases in vehicle fuel efficiency, and decreases in overall transportation fuel use. We analyze policy-oriented mitigation strategies and suggest that mitigation policies should be informed by the transitional nature of technology adoptions and the interactions between the mitigation strategies, and the robustness of mitigation strategies to long-term reduction goals, input assumptions, and policy and social factors. More research is needed to help identify robust policies that will achieve the best outcome in the face of uncertainties.
Yeh
Sonia
S
Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis, California 95616, USA. slyeh@ucdavis.edu
Farrell
Alex
A
Plevin
Richard
R
Sanstad
Alan
A
Weyant
John
J
D000393:Air Pollutants; D002245:Carbon Dioxide / Q000737:chemistry; D052918:Environmental Restoration and Remediation; D017752:Greenhouse Effect; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D014186:Transportation; D001335:Vehicle Emissions; D018505:Waste Management
D000393:Air Pollutants; D001335:Vehicle Emissions; D002245:Carbon Dioxide