title: Point and interval estimation of the population size using a zero-truncated negative binomial regression model.
abstract: This paper presents the zero-truncated negative binomial regression model to estimate the population size in the presence of a single registration file. The model is an alternative to the zero-truncated Poisson regression model and it may be useful if the data are overdispersed due to unobserved heterogeneity. Horvitz-Thompson point and interval estimates for the population size are derived, and the performance of these estimators is evaluated in a simulation study. To illustrate the model, the size of the population of opiate users in the city of Rotterdam is estimated. In comparison to the Poisson model, the zero-truncated negative binomial regression model fits these data better and yields a substantially higher population size estimate.
authors.affiliation: Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 1, Langeveldgebouw, Utrecht, The Netherlands. m.cruyff@uu.nl
authors.forename: Maarten J L F
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Cruyff
authors.forename: Peter G M
authors.initials: PG
authors.lastname: van der Heijden
mesh_terms: D003198:Computer Simulation; D006801:Humans; D008954:Models, Biological; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009426:Netherlands / Q000453:epidemiology; D009293:Opioid-Related Disorders / Q000453:epidemiology; D011156:Population Density; D012044:Regression Analysis