[The future of children's hospitals--demographic trends of children aged 0 to 15 in Germany up to 2050].
The 11th coordinated population forecast of the German Federal Statistical Office shows that the number of children in the age group 0-15 is going to decrease considerably up to 2050. Depending on the assumptions, the number of children will decrease to 50-80% of today's level. There are only small regional differences in this development, i. e., all regions will be equally affected by the population decline. However, large cities and surrounding areas will face smaller reductions than other community types. The timing of the decline differs somewhat between the regions. An exception is the age group 10-15 in East Germany. After a strong reduction of births in the years after the reunification, birth rates have been rising since 1998, which will lead to a relative increase of that age group in the coming years. However, also in this age group, the number of children is going to decrease to 85% of today's level up to 2050. In parallel to the reductions in the young population, there will be a reduction in the frequency of diagnoses, whereby in a simplified "status quo" model, the amount of diagnoses will decrease in proportion to the number of the 0-15-year-olds.
Westphal
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Rostocker Zentrum zur Erforschung des Demografischen Wandels, Konrad-Zuse-Str. 1, 18057 Rostock. westphal@rostockerzentrum.de
Scholz
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Doblhammer
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D000293:Adolescent; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D005858:Germany; D006301:Health Services Needs and Demand / Q000639:trends; D006776:Hospitals, Pediatric / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends*; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D008297:Male; D009017:Morbidity / Q000639:trends*; D011157:Population Dynamics; D014600:Utilization Review / Q000639:trends