title: [Pre-test and post-test probabilities. Who cares?].
abstract: The accuracy of a diagnostic test, i.e. abdomen ultrasound in patients with suspected acute appendicitis, is described in the terms of sensitivity and specificity. According to eminent textbooks physicians should use the values of the sensitivity and specificity of a test in their diagnostic reasoning. Physician's estimate, after taking the history, the pretest-probability of the suspected illness, order one or more tests and then calculate the respective posttest-probability. In practice physicians almost never follow this line of thinking. The main reasons are; to estimate concrete illness probabilities is difficult, the values for the sensitivity and specificity of a test are most often not known by physicians and calculations during daily practice are intricate. Helpful for busy physicians are trustworthy expert recommendations which test to apply in which clinical situation.
authors.affiliation: Horten Zentrum für praxisorientierte Forschung und Wissenstransfer, Universität Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Johann
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Steurer
mesh_terms: D003952:Diagnostic Imaging / Q000592:standards*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008487:Medical History Taking; D010690:Phlebography / Q000592:standards; D011336:Probability; D013902:Radiography, Thoracic / Q000592:standards; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D018616:Ultrasonography, Doppler, Duplex / Q000592:standards