Substance use disorder among older adults in the United States in 2020.
OBJECTIVE
This study aimed to project the number of people aged 50 years or older with substance use disorder (alcohol/illicit drug dependence or abuse) in the United States in 2020.


METHODS
Logistic regression models were applied to estimate parameters predicting past-year substance use disorder using the 2002-06 National Survey on Drug Use and Health data. We applied these parameters to the projected US 2020 population to estimate the number of adults aged 50 or older with substance use disorder in 2020.


METHODS
Non-institutionalized US residences.


METHODS
Representative sample of the US civilian, non-institutionalized population.


METHODS
Substance use disorder is classified based on criteria in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th edition.


RESULTS
Due to the large population size and high substance use rate of the baby-boom cohort, the number of adults aged 50 or older with substance use disorder is projected to double from 2.8 million (annual average) in 2002-06 to 5.7 million in 2020. Increases are projected for all examined gender, race/ethnicity and age groups.


CONCLUSIONS
Our estimates provide critical information for policymakers to allocate resources and develop prevention and treatment approaches to address future needs of the US older adult population with substance use disorder.
Han
Beth
B
Office of Applied Studies, Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, US Department of Health and Human Services, Rockville, MD, USA. beth.han@samhsa.hhs.gov
Gfroerer
Joseph C
JC
Colliver
James D
JD
Penne
Michael A
MA
D000367:Age Factors; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D003625:Data Collection; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006301:Health Services Needs and Demand / Q000191:economics / Q000639:trends*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008605:Mental Health Services / Q000191:economics / Q000639:trends*; D008875:Middle Aged; D015995:Prevalence; D012044:Regression Analysis; D016320:Substance Abuse Treatment Centers / Q000191:economics / Q000639:trends*; D019966:Substance-Related Disorders / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000628:therapy; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology