title: Antiphospholipid antibodies predict imminent vascular events independently from other risk factors in a prospective cohort.
abstract: Antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL) are associated with vascular events, but the magnitude of this risk, alone, or in combination with other atherogenic and thrombophilic risk factors, remains unclear. A prospective cohort of 415 persons was studied for arterial and venous events (AE and VE) over a median time of 7.4 years. aPL and coagulation abnormalities were measured upon beginning of the study and annually for the first four years. Within the cohort, a nested case-control study was conducted to investigate the role of endothelial and inflammatory markers in predicting new vascular events. Forty-five individuals had new vascular events: 18 occurred during the first year of follow-up. The proportion of event-free survivors at eight years was 90% (95%CI = 87%, 94%) for aPL-negative and 72% (60%, 85%) for aPL-positive individuals, respectively. Predictors for new AE were previous AE (HR = 5.7 [2.7, 12.0]), diabetes (5.6 [2.4, 13.2]), aPL positivity (2.6 ([1.2, 5.9]), and age (1.04 [1.01, 1.07]). New VE were predicted by previous VE (6.1 [1.9, 19.9]), anti-beta2-glycoprotein I (abeta2GPI) positivity (5.8 [1.4, 24.1]), activated protein C resistance (APCR) (4.1 [1.1, 15.1]), and gender (3.7 [1.1, 12.9]). In the nested case-control study, similar predictors were observed for AE, while abnormal APCR (OR = 5.5 [1.1, 26.6]) and elevated von Willebrand factor (vWF) (OR = 5.0 [1.2, 19.8]) best predicted VE. We demonstrate that aPL independently predict new vascular events and discriminate between individuals with and without events in the first two years of follow-up, indicating that aPL are associated with a short-term risk of developing new and recurrent vascular events.
authors.affiliation: Division of clinical Epidemiology, Department of Medicine, McGill University Health Centre, Montreal, Quebec, Canada.
authors.forename: Carolyn
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Neville
authors.forename: Joyce
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Rauch
authors.forename: Jeannine
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Kassis
authors.forename: Susan
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Solymoss
authors.forename: Lawrence
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Joseph
authors.forename: Patrick
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Belisle
authors.forename: Jerrold S
authors.initials: JS
authors.lastname: Levine
authors.forename: Paul R
authors.initials: PR
authors.lastname: Fortin
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D017152:Antibodies, Antiphospholipid / Q000097:blood*; D015415:Biomarkers / Q000097:blood; D001777:Blood Coagulation; D016022:Case-Control Studies; D004730:Endothelium, Vascular / Q000378:metabolism; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D018836:Inflammation Mediators / Q000097:blood; D053208:Kaplan-Meier Estimate; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D016017:Odds Ratio; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012008:Recurrence; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D013997:Time Factors; D014652:Vascular Diseases / Q000097:blood / Q000276:immunology* / Q000401:mortality
chemical_list: D017152:Antibodies, Antiphospholipid; D015415:Biomarkers; D018836:Inflammation Mediators