title: Effects of etiological agent and bather shedding of pathogens on interpretation of epidemiological data used to establish recreational water quality standards.
abstract: The overall goal of the study reported herein was to use techniques in the field of risk assessment (specifically a state-space population dynamic model of disease transmission within recreational waters) to explore the relative significance of (1) active shedding of microorganisms from bathers themselves, and (2) the type and concentration of etiological agent on the observed heterogeneity of the incidence of illness in epidemiological studies that have been used to develop ambient water quality criteria. The etiological agent and corresponding dose ingested during recreational contact was found to significantly impact the observed incidence of illness in an epidemiological study conducted in recreational water. In addition, the observed incidence of illness was found not to necessarily reflect background concentrations of indicator organisms, but rather microorganisms shed during recreational contact. Future revisions to ambient water quality criteria should address the etiological agent, dose, and the significance of microbial shedding relative to background concentrations of pathogens and indicator organisms in addition to the incidence of illness and concentration of indicator organisms. Without a quantitative assessment of these additional variables, study findings may potentially be site specific and not representative of the health risks associated with specific indicator concentrations in all recreational waters.
authors.affiliation: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Universityof California Davis, Davis, CA 95616, USA. fjloge@ucdavis.edu
authors.forename: Frank J
authors.initials: FJ
authors.lastname: Loge
authors.forename: Elisabetta
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Lambertini
authors.forename: Mark A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Borchardt
authors.forename: Hakan
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Başağaoğlu
authors.forename: Timothy R
authors.initials: TR
authors.lastname: Ginn
mesh_terms: D000465:Algorithms; D001493:Bathing Beaches / Q000592:standards*; D003141:Communicable Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology; D004784:Environmental Monitoring / Q000592:standards; D016021:Epidemiologic Studies; D062665:Epidemiological Monitoring; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D016032:Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D014867:Water / Q000032:analysis; D014871:Water Microbiology / Q000592:standards*; D014881:Water Supply / Q000592:standards*
chemical_list: D014867:Water