Prognostic table for predicting major cardiac events based on J-ACCESS investigation.
OBJECTIVE
The event risk of patients with coronary heart disease may be estimated by a large-scale prognostic database in a Japanese population. The aim of this study was to create a heart risk table for predicting the major cardiac event rate.


METHODS
Using the J-ACCESS database created by a prognostic investigation involving 117 hospitals and >4,000 patients in Japan, multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed. The major event rate over a 3-year period that included cardiac death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, and severe heart failure requiring hospitalization was predicted by the logistic regression equation. The algorithm for calculating the event rate was simplified for creating tables.


RESULTS
Two tables were created to calculate cardiac risk by age, perfusion score category, and ejection fraction with and without the presence of diabetes. A relative risk table comparing age-matched control subjects was also made. When the simplified tables were compared with the results from the original logistic regression analysis, both risk values and relative risks agreed well (P < 0.0001 for both).


CONCLUSIONS
The Heart Risk Table was created for patients suspected of having ischemic heart disease and who underwent myocardial perfusion gated single-photon emission computed tomography. The validity of risk assessment using a J-ACCESS database should be validated in a future study.
Nakajima
Kenichi
K
Department of Nuclear Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Institute of Medical, Pharmaceutical and Health Sciences, 13-1 Takaramachi, Kanazawa 920-8641, Japan. nakajima@med.kanazawa-u.ac.jp
Nishimura
Tsunehiko
T
D000465:Algorithms; D015897:Comorbidity; D003324:Coronary Artery Disease / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging* / Q000401:mortality*; D007090:Image Interpretation, Computer-Assisted / Q000379:methods*; D015994:Incidence; D007564:Japan / Q000453:epidemiology; D011379:Prognosis; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D011873:Radiology Information Systems / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D012307:Risk Factors; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D016019:Survival Analysis; D015996:Survival Rate; D015899:Tomography, Emission-Computed, Single-Photon / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D018487:Ventricular Dysfunction, Left / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging* / Q000401:mortality*