title: Prospective actuarial risk assessment: a comparison of five risk assessment instruments in different sexual offender subtypes.
abstract: This study examines the predictive validity of the most commonly used risk assessment instruments for sexual offenders: Static-99, Rapid Risk Assessment for Sexual Offense Recidivism, Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide, Sexual Violence Risk-20, and Psychopathy Checklist-Revised in a prospective research design. Although risk assessment is part of a regime leading to various efforts to reduce risk by treatment and aftercare, all instruments show good predictive validity. However, depending on the instrument, recidivism category, and subgroup, the predictive accuracy varies markedly. Furthermore, the authors fail to demonstrate predictive validity for sexual violent reoffences-for the whole sample and for all subgroups. The results, nevertheless, support the utility and predictive validity of actuarial risk assessment complementary to treatment efforts to reduce risk. On the other hand, forensic practitioners have to be aware of the limitations of actuarial risk assessment methods, in particular as regards to variable predictive accuracy for different sexual offender subgroups and reoffence categories.
authors.affiliation: Federal Evaluation Centre for Violent and Sexual Offenders, Vienna, Austria.
authors.forename: Martin
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Rettenberger
authors.forename: Anna
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Matthes
authors.forename: Douglas P
authors.initials: DP
authors.lastname: Boer
authors.forename: Reinhard
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Eher
mesh_terms: D000206:Actuarial Analysis; D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D003617:Dangerous Behavior; D003674:Defense Mechanisms; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D010552:Personality Assessment / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D011594:Psychometrics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D055502:Secondary Prevention; D012742:Sex Offenses / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence* / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000523:psychology / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D014754:Violence / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000523:psychology / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D055815:Young Adult