title: Level and change in cognitive test scores predict risk of first stroke.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To determine whether cognitive test scores and cognitive decline predict incidence of first diagnosed stroke.
  
  
  METHODS
  Stroke-free Health and Retirement Study participants were followed on average 7.6 years for self- or proxy-reported first stroke (1,483 events). Predictors included baseline performance on a modified Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status (Mental Status) and Word Recall test and decline between baseline and second assessment in either measure. Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models for the whole sample and stratified according to five major cardiovascular risk factors.
  
  
  METHODS
  National cohort study of noninstitutionalized adults with a mean baseline age of 64+/-9.9.
  
  
  METHODS
  Health and Retirement Study participants (n=19,699) aged 50 and older.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Word Recall (HR for 1 standard deviation difference=0.92, 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.86-0.97)) and Mental Status (HR=0.89, 95% CI=0.84-0.95) predicted incident stroke. Mental Status predicted stroke risk in those with (HR=0.93, 95%=0.87-0.99) and without (HR=0.81, 95% CI=0.72-.91) one or more vascular risk factors. Word Recall declines predicted a 16% elevation in subsequent stroke risk (95% CI=1.01-1.34). Declines in Mental Status predicted a 37% elevation in stroke risk (95% CI=1.11-1.70).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Cognitive test scores predict future stroke risk, independent of other major vascular risk factors.
authors.affiliation: Department of Sociomedical Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, New York, New York, USA.
authors.forename: Triveni
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: DeFries
authors.forename: Mauricio
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Avendaño
authors.forename: M Maria
authors.initials: MM
authors.lastname: Glymour
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D003072:Cognition Disorders / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology*; D015331:Cohort Studies; D015140:Dementia, Vascular / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology*; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D007407:Interviews as Topic; D053208:Kaplan-Meier Estimate; D008297:Male; D008609:Mental Status Schedule / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011594:Psychometrics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D012306:Risk; D020521:Stroke / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology*; D014481:United States