title: Projecting future drug expenditures--2009.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Drug expenditure trends in 2007 and 2008, projected drug expenditures for 2009, and factors likely to influence drug expenditures are discussed.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Various factors are likely to influence drug expenditures in 2009, including drugs in development, the diffusion of new drugs, drug safety concerns, generic drugs, Medicare Part D, and changes in the drug supply chain. The increasing availability of important generic drugs and drug safety concerns continue to moderate growth in drug expenditures. The drug supply chain remains dynamic and may influence drug expenditures, particularly in specialized therapeutic areas. Initial data suggest that the Medicare Part D benefit has influenced drug expenditures, but the ultimate impact of the benefit on drug expenditures remains unclear. From 2006 to 2007, total U.S. drug expenditures increased by 4.0%, with total spending rising from $276 billion to $287 billion. Drug expenditures in clinics continue to grow more rapidly than in other settings, with a 9.9% increase from 2006 to 2007. Hospital drug expenditures increased at a moderate rate of only 1.6% from 2006 to 2007; through the first nine months of 2008, hospital drug expenditures increased by only 2.8% compared with the same period in 2007.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  In 2009, we project a 0-2% increase in drug expenditures in outpatient settings, a 1-3% increase in expenditures for clinic-administered drugs, and a 1-3% increase in hospital drug expenditures.
authors.affiliation: Pharmaceutical Department, St. Jude Children's Research Hospital, Memphis, TN, USA.
authors.forename: James M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Hoffman
authors.forename: Nilay D
authors.initials: ND
authors.lastname: Shah
authors.forename: Lee C
authors.initials: LC
authors.lastname: Vermeulen
authors.forename: Fred
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Doloresco
authors.forename: Patrick K
authors.initials: PK
authors.lastname: Martin
authors.forename: Sharon
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Blake
authors.forename: Linda
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Matusiak
authors.forename: Robert J
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: Hunkler
authors.forename: Glen T
authors.initials: GT
authors.lastname: Schumock
mesh_terms: D017277:Drug Approval / Q000191:economics; D016527:Drug Costs / Q000639:trends*; D016568:Drugs, Generic / Q000191:economics; D004469:Economics, Hospital / Q000639:trends*; D005544:Forecasting; D005102:Health Expenditures / Q000639:trends*; D006801:Humans; D054524:Medicare Part D / Q000191:economics; D004364:Pharmaceutical Preparations / Q000191:economics*; D014481:United States
chemical_list: D016568:Drugs, Generic; D004364:Pharmaceutical Preparations