title: Effects of land use on threatened species.
abstract: There is widespread agreement that biodiversity loss must be reduced, yet to alleviate threats to plant and animal species, the forces driving these losses need to be better understood. We searched for explanatory variables for threatened-species data at the country level through land-use information instead of previously used socioeconomic and demographic variables. To explain the number of threatened species in one country, we used information on land-use patterns in all neighboring countries and on the extent of the country's sea border. We carried out multiple regressions of the numbers of threatened species as a function of land-use patterns, and we tested various specifications of this function, including spatial autocorrelation. Most cross-border land-use patterns had a significant influence on the number of threatened species, and land-use patterns explained the number of threatened species better than less proximate socioeconomic variables. More specifically, our overall results showed a highly adverse influence of plantations and permanent cropland, a weaker negative influence of permanent pasture, and, for the most part, a beneficial influence of nonarable lands and natural forest. Surprisingly, built-up land also showed a conserving influence on threatened species. The adverse influences extended to distances between about 250 km (plants) and 2000 km (birds and mammals) away from where the species threat was recorded, depending on the species. Our results highlight that legislation affecting biodiversity should look beyond national boundaries.
authors.affiliation: Centre for Integrated Sustainability Analysis, School of Physics A28, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia. m.lenzen@physics.usyd.edu.au
authors.forename: Manfred
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Lenzen
authors.forename: Amanda
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Lane
authors.forename: Asaph
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Widmer-Cooper
authors.forename: Moira
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Williams
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001717:Birds; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D003710:Demography; D017753:Ecosystem; D053476:Extinction, Biological; D006802:Human Activities; D007391:International Cooperation; D008322:Mammals; D008954:Models, Biological; D010944:Plants; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors