Using empirical social contact data to model person to person infectious disease transmission: an illustration for varicella.
With the aim to improve dynamic models for infections transmitted predominantly through non-sexual social contacts, we compared three popular model estimation methods in how well they fitted seroprevalence data and produced estimates for the basic reproduction number R(0) and the effective vaccination level required for elimination of varicella. For two of these methods, interactions between age groups were parameterized using empirical social contact data whereas for the third method we used the current standard approach of imposing a simplifying structure on the 'Who Acquires Infection From Whom' (WAIFW) matrix. The first method was based on solving a set of differential equations to obtain an equilibrium value of the proportion of susceptibles. The second method was based on finding a solution for the age-specific force of infection using the formula of the mass action principle by means of iteration. Both solutions were contrasted with observed age-specific seroprevalence data. The best fit of the WAIFW matrix was obtained with contacts involving touching, and lasting longer than 15min per day. Plausible values for R(0) for varicella in Belgium ranged from 7.66 to 13.44. Both approaches based on empirical social contact data provided a better fit to seroprevalence data than the current standard approach.
Ogunjimi
Benson
B
Centre for Health Economics Research and Modeling Infectious Diseases, Vaccine and Infectious Disease Institute, Faculty of Medicine, University of Antwerp, Campus Drie Eiken, Universiteitsplein 1, 2610 Antwerpen, Belgium.
Hens
Niel
N
Goeyvaerts
Nele
N
Aerts
Marc
M
Van Damme
Pierre
P
Beutels
Philippe
P
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D050936:Basic Reproduction Number; D001530:Belgium / Q000453:epidemiology; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D006562:Herpes Zoster / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000276:immunology / Q000635:transmission*; D014645:Herpesvirus 3, Human / Q000276:immunology*; D006801:Humans; D007114:Immunization / Q000592:standards; D007223:Infant; D018448:Models, Immunological; D016036:Seroepidemiologic Studies; D012919:Social Behavior; D055815:Young Adult