title: Meeting increased demand.
abstract: New Zealand is a little country with a little economy but with a population that's rapidly aging. New Zealand's population is only 4.3 million people. It's GDP is only $US58.6 billion (2002). New Zealand's expenditure on health as a percentage of GDP is not out of line with that of other countries. As a nation we have been increasing expenditure on health over recent years. In 1990 we spent 7% of GDP on health. In 1995 that increased to 7.65% and is now 8.3%. However, in per capita terms our expenditure on health does not compare so well with like countries. The size of New Zealand's economy is restricting what our country spends on health. Health is already the second highest demand on the New Zealand tax dollar. The tolerance of New Zealanders would be challenged if a Government attempted to increase taxes further to meet the growing demands for expenditure on health, but at the same time the population's expectations are increasing. This is the challenging situation we face today. What lies ahead? Like all industrialized countries New Zealand is facing an aging population. The population below age 40 is decreasing, but it is increasing significantly over that age. 16% of the population is currently aged over 60. By 2051 this proportion will almost double to just over 31%. Coupled with the aging population is increased awareness and expectations, as access to options for treatment and technology becomes readily accessible to the population through such media as the internet. The extent of the impact of the aging population can be clearly represented by focusing on one specialty such as orthopaedics. The New Zealand Orthopaecic Association undertook a study in July 2003 which concluded (among other things) that as a result of the projected aging of the population, over the next 50 years: Musculo-skeletal operations will increase by over 30%. The number of hip replacements will nearly double. The incidence of osteoporosis will increase by a massive 201%. The number of people affected by arthritis will increase by nearly 50%. A huge increase in numbers affected with musculoskeletal conditions will require significant increases in health care resources, including hospital beds and facilities, orthopaedic surgeons and other health care professionals. New Zealand has been slow to acknowledge and plan for the increased demand for health services which is looming. Growing New Zealand's economy will help, but alone will not be enough. It is more than just finding the financial resources to better meet the demand. The enormous demands on the availability of treatment resources including hospital facilities and trained health care professionals must be addressed. There are major workforce issues to be faced. The change in population distribution between young and old will have an impact and it will be necessary to ensure that there are sufficient numbers of properly trained health care professionals available at all levels. It is hoped that improvements in preventative care programmes and new technologies and treatment techniques may reduce the rate of demand. As the health of our population is improved through targeted programmes dealing with obesity, diabetes, smoking and accident prevention, it may be possible to reallocate or change the focus of resources within the health and hospital sectors. Many countries are developing national strategies for their aging population. Clearly the New Zealand Government needs to move swiftly to develop a plan to manage the increased burden that is developing as a result of the aging population. That plan must create an environment which facilitates, encourages and supports greater private investment in healthcare facilities and healthcare delivery. Incentives must be created to motivate individuals to take greater responsibility for their healthcare needs and the funding of it. The development of a long term strategy to meet the challenges of the aging population is a priority.
authors.affiliation: New Zealand Private Hospitals Association. andrewb@royston.co.nz
authors.forename: Andrew
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Blair
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000375:Aging; D019352:Censuses; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D005102:Health Expenditures / Q000639:trends; D006301:Health Services Needs and Demand / Q000639:trends*; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008875:Middle Aged; D009520:New Zealand; D055815:Young Adult