title: Predictors of esophageal varices in patients with HBV-related cirrhosis: a retrospective study.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  All patients with liver cirrhosis are recommended to undergo an evaluation of esophageal varices (EV) to assess their risk of bleeding. Predicting the presence of EV through non-invasive means may reduce a large number of unnecessary endoscopies. This study was designed to develop a predictive model for varices in patients with Hepatitis B virus-related cirrhosis.
  
  
  METHODS
  The retrospective analysis was performed in 146 patients with Hepatitis B virus-related cirrhosis. The data were assessed by univariate analysis and a multivariate logistic regression analysis. In addition, the receiver operating characteristic curves were also applied to calculate and compare the accuracy of the model and other single parameters for the diagnosis of esophageal varices.
  
  
  RESULTS
  We found the prevalence of EV in patients with Hepatitis B virus-related cirrhosis to be 74.7%. In addition, platelet count, spleen width, portal vein diameter and platelet count/spleen width ratio were significantly associated with the presence of esophageal varices on univariate analysis. A multivariate analysis revealed that only the spleen width and portal vein diameter were independent risk factors. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of regression function (RF) model, which was composed of the spleen width and portal vein diameter, was higher than that of the platelet count. With a cut-off value of 0.3631, the RF model had an excellent sensitivity of 87.2% and an acceptable specificity of 59.5% with an overall accuracy of 80.1%.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Our data suggest that portal vein diameter and spleen width rather than platelet count may predict the presence of varices in patients with Hepatitis B virus-related cirrhosis, and that the RF model may help physicians to identify patients who would most likely benefit from screenings for EV.
authors.affiliation: Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical College, Wenzhou, PR China. hwdsci@gmail.com
authors.forename: Wan-Dong
authors.initials: WD
authors.lastname: Hong
authors.forename: Qi-Huai
authors.initials: QH
authors.lastname: Zhu
authors.forename: Zhi-Ming
authors.initials: ZM
authors.lastname: Huang
authors.forename: Xiang-Rong
authors.initials: XR
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.forename: Zen-Cai
authors.initials: ZC
authors.lastname: Jiang
authors.forename: Si-Hao
authors.initials: SH
authors.lastname: Xu
authors.forename: Kunlin
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Jin
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D002681:China; D015331:Cohort Studies; D004932:Esophageal and Gastric Varices / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000821:virology*; D005260:Female; D006509:Hepatitis B / Q000150:complications* / Q000378:metabolism / Q000473:pathology; D006801:Humans; D008103:Liver Cirrhosis / Q000378:metabolism / Q000473:pathology / Q000821:virology*; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors