The impact of chronic multimorbidity and disability on functional decline and survival in elderly persons. A community-based, longitudinal study.
OBJECTIVE
We aimed to disentangle the effect of chronic multimorbidity and disability on 3-year functional decline and survival in the elderly.


METHODS
Prospective cohort study with a mean of follow-up of 2.8 years.


METHODS
Swedish elderly persons from the Kungsholmen Project (1987-2000).


METHODS
A total of 1099 subjects, 77-100 years old, living in the community and institutions.


METHODS
Medical diagnoses (based on clinical examination, drug use, medical records and blood tests), and functional assessment (according to Katz Index) at baseline were investigated in relation to functional decline and death occurring during follow-up.


RESULTS
At baseline, 12.1% of participants had disability, and 52.3% were affected by multimorbidity. During follow-up, 363 persons died and 85 worsened in functioning. The number of chronic conditions incrementally increased the risk of functional decline [hazard ratio (HR) increased from 1.5 in subjects with one disease to 6.2 in persons with 4+ diseases]. However, this was not the case for mortality, as the HR of death was the same for people with one disease as well as 4+ diseases (HR=2.3). Baseline disability had the highest impact on survival, independently of number of diseases [HR=8.1; 95% confidence interval (CI)=4.8-13.7 in subjects with one disease and HR=7.7; 95% CI=4.7-12.6 in those with 2+ diseases].


CONCLUSIONS
In the elderly subjects, chronic disability rather than multimorbidity emerged as the strongest negative prognostic factor for functionality and survival.
Marengoni
A
A
NVS Department, Aging Research Center, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden. alessandra.marengoni@ki.se
von Strauss
E
E
Rizzuto
D
D
Winblad
B
B
Fratiglioni
L
L
D000203:Activities of Daily Living; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002908:Chronic Disease; D004185:Disability Evaluation; D006233:Persons with Disabilities / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005260:Female; D015577:Geriatric Assessment; D006801:Humans; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D009026:Mortality; D011446:Prospective Studies; D016019:Survival Analysis; D013548:Sweden / Q000453:epidemiology