[Scenarios for the impact of immigration on longevity and dependency among the elderly in the Spanish population].
BACKGROUND
The composition of the Spanish population has recently changed due to immigration. The present study aimed to estimate the magnitude of change in the calculation of healthy life expectancy and life expectancy in disability, taking the population of foreign residents into account. For this population, there is no information on mortality or the prevalence of disability.


METHODS
Data were extracted from the 1999 Survey on Disabilities, Handicaps and Health Status to estimate healthy life expectancy and life expectancy in disability using the Sullivan method. Data were taken from the Spanish Statistical Institute and the World Health Organization, Sullivan's method was adapted to the case of two different populations, and possible scenarios were established.


RESULTS
The differences between the mortality table estimated for the foreign resident population and that estimated for the Spanish population were considerable and were more evident in women. At 65 years of age and in the worst scenario, which occurs when all the members of the foreign resident population are disabled, life expectancy in disability would be 2 more years for men and 3 more years for women than when the foreign population was not considered.


CONCLUSIONS
Our scenarios reveal that the impact of immigration on the calculation of healthy life expectancy and life expectancy in disability is moderate.
Bermúdez Morata
Lluís
L
Departamento de Matemática Económica, Financiera y Actuarial, RFA-IREA, Universidad de Barcelona, Barcelona, España. lbermudez@ub.edu
Guillén Estany
Montserrat
M
Solé Auró
Aïda
A
D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D006233:Persons with Disabilities / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D004641:Emigration and Immigration; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008136:Longevity; D008297:Male; D009026:Mortality / Q000639:trends*; D013030:Spain