title: Mathematical modelling methodologies in predictive food microbiology: a SWOT analysis.
abstract: Predictive microbiology is the area of food microbiology that attempts to forecast the quantitative evolution of microbial populations over time. This is achieved to a great extent through models that include the mechanisms governing population dynamics. Traditionally, the models used in predictive microbiology are whole-system continuous models that describe population dynamics by means of equations applied to extensive or averaged variables of the whole system. Many existing models can be classified by specific criteria. We can distinguish between survival and growth models by seeing whether they tackle mortality or cell duplication. We can distinguish between empirical (phenomenological) models, which mathematically describe specific behaviour, and theoretical (mechanistic) models with a biological basis, which search for the underlying mechanisms driving already observed phenomena. We can also distinguish between primary, secondary and tertiary models, by examining their treatment of the effects of external factors and constraints on the microbial community. Recently, the use of spatially explicit Individual-based Models (IbMs) has spread through predictive microbiology, due to the current technological capacity of performing measurements on single individual cells and thanks to the consolidation of computational modelling. Spatially explicit IbMs are bottom-up approaches to microbial communities that build bridges between the description of micro-organisms at the cell level and macroscopic observations at the population level. They provide greater insight into the mesoscale phenomena that link unicellular and population levels. Every model is built in response to a particular question and with different aims. Even so, in this research we conducted a SWOT (Strength, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the different approaches (population continuous modelling and Individual-based Modelling), which we hope will be helpful for current and future researchers.
authors.affiliation: Escola Superior d'Agricultura de Barcelona, Campus del Baix Llobregat, Departament de Física i Enginyeria Nuclear, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, 08860 Castelldefels, Spain.
authors.forename: Jordi
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Ferrer
authors.forename: Clara
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Prats
authors.forename: Daniel
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: López
authors.forename: Josep
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Vives-Rego
mesh_terms: D001419:Bacteria / Q000254:growth & development*; D015169:Colony Count, Microbial; D005516:Food Microbiology; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D008433:Mathematics; D008954:Models, Biological; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*