title: Modelling the potential impact of population-wide and targeted high-risk blood pressure-lowering strategies on cardiovascular disease in China.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  To estimate the impact of population-wide and high-risk blood pressure-lowering strategies on cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence in China.
  
  
  METHODS
  A modelling study based on a community cohort of 30 362 men and women aged 35-74 years in urban Shanghai, China, 3.3% of whom have existing CVD.
  
  
  METHODS
  We modelled three blood pressure-lowering strategies: population-wide salt reduction, or antihypertensive drug treatment (following Chinese guidelines) for two subpopulations with either high blood pressure (>/=150/95 mmHg), or high baseline-predicted CVD risk (>/=10% in 10 years based on a multivariate risk model). Avoidable CVD events were estimated by applying a range of relative risk reductions in CVD, 5-7.5% for population-wide salt reduction and 20-25% for drug treatment derived from meta-analyses. Drug compliance was assumed to be 50%.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Population-wide salt reduction would avoid 240-362 events per 100 000 population over 10 years. Drug treatment for the 14.1% of people with raised blood pressure could avoid 217-273 events, whereas treating the 14.2% of people with predicted 10-year CVD risk over 10% would avoid 310-385 events. Of the prevented events, 70-80% would occur in over 60 years and almost a third of the events were predicted to occur among the 3.3% of people with prevalent CVD.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Population-wide and high-risk blood pressure-lowering strategies would have a similar impact on CVD incidence in urban China. The expected epidemic of CVD could be reduced by highly targeted drug treatment while more sustainable population-wide strategies are put in place.
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Xueying
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Qin
authors.forename: Rod
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Jackson
authors.forename: Roger
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Marshall
authors.forename: Liming
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.forename: Weihua
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Cao
authors.forename: Siyan
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Zhan
authors.forename: Yonghua
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Hu
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000959:Antihypertensive Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000517:prevention & control*; D002681:China; D015331:Cohort Studies; D004039:Diet, Sodium-Restricted; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D006973:Hypertension / Q000628:therapy*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008955:Models, Cardiovascular; D018570:Risk Assessment; D014505:Urban Population
chemical_list: D000959:Antihypertensive Agents