The MUSIC Risk score: a simple method for predicting mortality in ambulatory patients with chronic heart failure.
OBJECTIVE
The prognosis of chronic heart failure (CHF) is extremely variable, although generally poor. The purpose of this study was to develop prognostic models for CHF patients.


RESULTS
A cohort of 992 consecutive ambulatory CHF patients was prospectively followed for a median of 44 months. Multivariable Cox models were developed to predict all-cause mortality (n = 267), cardiac mortality (primary end-point, n = 213), pump-failure death (n = 123), and sudden death (n = 90). The four final models included several combinations of the same 10 independent predictors: prior atherosclerotic vascular event, left atrial size >26 mm/m(2), ejection fraction < or =35%, atrial fibrillation, left bundle-branch block or intraventricular conduction delay, non-sustained ventricular tachycardia and frequent ventricular premature beats, estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73 m(2), hyponatremia < or =138 mEq/L, NT-proBNP >1.000 ng/L, and troponin-positive. On the basis of Cox models, the MUSIC Risk scores were calculated. A cardiac mortality score >20 points identified a high-risk subgroup with a four-fold cardiac mortality risk.


CONCLUSIONS
A simple score with a limited number of non-invasive variables successfully predicted cardiac mortality in a real-life cohort of CHF patients. The use of this model in clinical practice identifies a subgroup of high-risk patients that should be closely managed.
Vazquez
Rafael
R
Cardiology Service, Valme University Hospital, Carretera a Cadiz s/n, 41014 Seville, Spain. plan@telefonica.net
Bayes-Genis
Antoni
A
Cygankiewicz
Iwona
I
Pascual-Figal
Domingo
D
Grigorian-Shamagian
Lilian
L
Pavon
Ricardo
R
Gonzalez-Juanatey
Jose R
JR
Cubero
José M
JM
Pastor
Luis
L
Ordonez-Llanos
Jordi
J
Cinca
Juan
J
de Luna
Antoni Bayes
AB
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002037:Bundle-Branch Block / Q000401:mortality*; D002908:Chronic Disease; D005260:Female; D006333:Heart Failure / Q000401:mortality*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008955:Models, Cardiovascular; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D011446:Prospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment; D055815:Young Adult