title: Probabilistic exposure analysis for chemical risk characterization.
abstract: This paper summarizes the state of the science of probabilistic exposure assessment (PEA) as applied to chemical risk characterization. Current probabilistic risk analysis methods applied to PEA are reviewed. PEA within the context of risk-based decision making is discussed, including probabilistic treatment of related uncertainty, interindividual heterogeneity, and other sources of variability. Key examples of recent experience gained in assessing human exposures to chemicals in the environment, and other applications to chemical risk characterization and assessment, are presented. It is concluded that, although improvements continue to be made, existing methods suffice for effective application of PEA to support quantitative analyses of the risk of chemically induced toxicity that play an increasing role in key decision-making objectives involving health protection, triage, civil justice, and criminal justice. Different types of information required to apply PEA to these different decision contexts are identified, and specific PEA methods are highlighted that are best suited to exposure assessment in these separate contexts.
authors.affiliation: Exponent Health Sciences, Oakland, California 94607, USA. kbogen@exponent.com
authors.forename: Kenneth T
authors.initials: KT
authors.lastname: Bogen
authors.forename: Alison C
authors.initials: AC
authors.lastname: Cullen
authors.forename: H Christopher
authors.initials: HC
authors.lastname: Frey
authors.forename: Paul S
authors.initials: PS
authors.lastname: Price
mesh_terms: D003659:Decision Making, Organizational; D004781:Environmental Exposure; D004785:Environmental Pollutants / Q000633:toxicity*; D015386:Hazardous Substances / Q000633:toxicity*; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D012308:Risk Management; D014218:Triage
chemical_list: D004785:Environmental Pollutants; D015386:Hazardous Substances