Risk charts illustrating the 10-year risk of stroke among residents of Japanese rural communities: the JMS Cohort Study.
BACKGROUND
Risk charts are used to estimate the risk of cardiovascular diseases; however, most have been developed in Western countries. In Japan, currently available risk charts are based on mortality data. Using data on cardiovascular disease incidence from the JMS Cohort Study, we developed charts that illustrated the risk of stroke.


RESULTS
The JMS Cohort Study is a community-based cohort study of cardiovascular disease. Baseline data were obtained between 1992 and 1995. In the present analysis, the participants were 12 276 subjects without a history of stroke; the follow-up period was 10.7 years. Color-coded risk charts were created by using Cox's proportional hazards models to calculate 10-year absolute risks associated with sex, age, smoking status, diabetes status, and systolic blood pressure. The risks of stroke and cerebral infarction rose as age and systolic blood pressure increased. Although the risk of cerebral hemorrhage were generally lower than that of cerebral infarction, the patterns of association with risk factors were similar.


CONCLUSIONS
These risk charts should prove useful for clinicians and other health professionals who are required to estimate an individual's risk for stroke.
Ishikawa
Shizukiyo
S
Division of Community and Family Medicine, Center for Community Medicine, Jichi Medical University, Tochigi 329-0498, Japan. i-shizu@jichi.ac.jp
Matsumoto
Masatoshi
M
Kayaba
Kazunori
K
Gotoh
Tadao
T
Nago
Naoki
N
Tsutsumi
Akizumi
A
Kajii
Eiji
E
D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001794:Blood Pressure; D015331:Cohort Studies; D003920:Diabetes Mellitus / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007564:Japan / Q000453:epidemiology; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D012423:Rural Health / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D012737:Sex Factors; D012907:Smoking; D020521:Stroke / Q000453:epidemiology*; D055815:Young Adult