title: Utilization of accident databases and fuzzy sets to estimate frequency of HazMat transport accidents.
abstract: Risk assessment and management of transportation of hazardous materials (HazMat) require the estimation of accident frequency. This paper presents a methodology to estimate hazardous materials transportation accident frequency by utilizing publicly available databases and expert knowledge. The estimation process addresses route-dependent and route-independent variables. Negative binomial regression is applied to an analysis of the Department of Public Safety (DPS) accident database to derive basic accident frequency as a function of route-dependent variables, while the effects of route-independent variables are modeled by fuzzy logic. The integrated methodology provides the basis for an overall transportation risk analysis, which can be used later to develop a decision support system.
authors.affiliation: Mary Kay O'Connor Process Safety Center, Chemical Engineering Department, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843-3122, USA.
authors.forename: Yuanhua
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Qiao
authors.forename: Nir
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Keren
authors.forename: M Sam
authors.initials: MS
authors.lastname: Mannan
mesh_terms: D000059:Accidents / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D000063:Accidents, Traffic; D016208:Databases, Factual; D017143:Fuzzy Logic; D015386:Hazardous Substances; D018570:Risk Assessment; D017751:Safety Management; D014186:Transportation
chemical_list: D015386:Hazardous Substances