title: The upper airway in sleep-disordered breathing: a clinical prediction model.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  An examination of the upper airway in patients with suspected sleep disordered breathing (SDB) is recommended prior to nighttime polysomnography (PSG) despite a reported low predictive value of those examinations. The aim of this study was to evaluate the data of the clinical examination and to create a clinical prediction model.
  
  
  METHODS
  Retrospective cohort study.
  
  
  METHODS
  A recently introduced method of dynamic examination of the upper airway during simulated snoring (SS) in awake patients is conducted in patients with suspected SDB. Clinical parameters, body mass index (BMI), and the Epworth sleepiness scale (ESS) scores of 622 patients were included in a clinical prediction model and correlated to the apnea-hypopnea index (AHI).
  
  
  RESULTS
  A correlation was detected between the AHI and alterations of the upper airway during SS, BMI, and ESS score. A clinical prediction model including clinical data, BMI, and ESS score revealed a high sensitivity but low specificity predicting the nocturnal AHI: calculated AHI = tonsil size x 2.648 + uvula size x 3.776 + dorsal movement during SS x 2.842 + collapse at tongue base level during SS x 4.769 + BMI x 0.609 + ESS score x 1.177 - 27.685.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The dynamic examination of the upper airway during SS in awake patients in combination with clinical data, the BMI, and ESS score is an easy-to-perform screening procedure prior to nighttime PSG and might support the otorhinolaryngologic diagnostic approach in patients with suspected SDB.
authors.affiliation: Department of Otorhinolaryngology, Head and Neck Surgery, Ernst-Moritz-Arndt University, Greifswald, Germany. michael.herzog@uni-greifswald.de
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Herzog
authors.forename: Thomas
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Kühnel
authors.forename: Thomas
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Bremert
authors.forename: Beatrice
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Herzog
authors.forename: Werner
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Hosemann
authors.forename: Holger
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Kaftan
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D015992:Body Mass Index; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D016014:Linear Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008954:Models, Biological; D010808:Physical Examination / Q000379:methods; D017286:Polysomnography; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012891:Sleep Apnea Syndromes / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000503:physiopathology; D012913:Snoring / Q000145:classification