title: Predicting short-term response to thrust and nonthrust manipulation and exercise in patients post inversion ankle sprain.
abstract: METHODS
  Prospective-cohort/predictive-validity study.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To develop a clinical prediction rule (CPR) to identify patients who had sustained an inversion ankle sprain who would likely benefit from manual therapy and exercise.
  
  
  BACKGROUND
  No studies have investigated the predictive value of items from the clinical examination to identify patients with ankle sprains likely to benefit from manual therapy and general mobility exercises.
  
  
  METHODS
  Consecutive patients with a status of post inversion ankle sprain underwent a standardized examination followed by manual therapy (both thrust and nonthrust manipulation) and general mobility exercises. Patients were classified as having experienced a successful outcome at the second and third sessions based on their perceived recovery. Potential predictor variables were entered into a stepwise logistic regression model to determine the most accurate set of variables for prediction of treatment success.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Eighty-five patients were included in the data analysis, of which 64 had a successful outcome (75%). A CPR with 4 variables was identified. If 3 of the 4 variables were present the accuracy of the rule was maximized (positive likelihood ratio, 5.9; 95% CI: 1.1, 41.6) and the posttest probability of success increased to 95%.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The CPR provides the ability to a priori identify patients with an inversion ankle sprain who are likely to exhibit rapid and dramatic short-term success with a treatment approach, including manual therapy and general mobility exercises.
  
  
  METHODS
  Prognosis, level 2b.
authors.affiliation: Evidence in Mothion, Louisville, KY, USA. jwhitman@regis.edu
authors.forename: Julie M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Whitman
authors.forename: Joshua A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Cleland
authors.forename: Paul E
authors.initials: PE
authors.lastname: Mintken
authors.forename: Mike
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Keirns
authors.forename: Melanie L
authors.initials: ML
authors.lastname: Bieniek
authors.forename: Stephanie R
authors.initials: SR
authors.lastname: Albin
authors.forename: Jake
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Magel
authors.forename: Thomas G
authors.initials: TG
authors.lastname: McPoil
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D016512:Ankle Injuries / Q000503:physiopathology / Q000628:therapy*; D016009:Chi-Square Distribution; D005081:Exercise Therapy / Q000379:methods*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D026741:Physical Therapy Modalities; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D013180:Sprains and Strains / Q000503:physiopathology / Q000628:therapy*; D016896:Treatment Outcome