title: Severity of inflammation as a predictor of colectomy in patients with chronic ulcerative colitis.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  We evaluated a large cohort of patients with longstanding ulcerative colitis in a colonoscopic surveillance program to determine predictors of colectomy.
  
  
  METHODS
  We queried a retrospective database of patients who had symptoms of ulcerative colitis for seven years or more. Histologic inflammation in biopsies was graded on a validated four-point scale: absent, mild, moderate, severe. We performed a multivariate analysis of the inflammation scores and other variables to determine predictive factors for colectomy. Patients who underwent colectomy for neoplasia were censored at the time of surgery; those who did not undergo colectomy were censored at the time of last contact.
  
  
  RESULTS
  A total of 561 patients were evaluated, with a median follow-up of 21.4 years since disease onset. A total of 97 patients (17.3 percent) underwent surgery; 25 (4.5 percent) for reasons other than dysplasia. These 25 constitute events for this analysis. For univariate analysis, mean inflammation (P < 0.001) and steroid use (P = 0.01) were predictors of colectomy. For multivariable proportional hazards analysis, mean inflammation (P < 0.001) and steroid use (P = 0.03) were predictors of colectomy, whereas salicylate use (P = 0.007) was protective.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Higher median inflammation scores and corticosteroid use were predictors of colectomy in this patient population. The overall rate of colectomy during a long period of follow-up was low (<1 percent per year).
authors.affiliation: Department of Surgery, Mount Sinai School of Medicine, New York, New York, USA.
authors.forename: Marco M
authors.initials: MM
authors.lastname: Hefti
authors.forename: David B
authors.initials: DB
authors.lastname: Chessin
authors.forename: Noam H
authors.initials: NH
authors.lastname: Harpaz
authors.forename: Randolph M
authors.initials: RM
authors.lastname: Steinhagen
authors.forename: Thomas A
authors.initials: TA
authors.lastname: Ullman
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001706:Biopsy; D003082:Colectomy; D003093:Colitis, Ulcerative / Q000473:pathology / Q000601:surgery*; D003106:Colon / Q000473:pathology; D003113:Colonoscopy; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D007249:Inflammation; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D055815:Young Adult