title: Development of a new method for monitoring prostate-specific antigen changes in men with localised prostate cancer: a comparison of observational cohorts.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) measurements are increasingly used to monitor men with localised prostate cancer (PCa), but there is little consensus about the method to use.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To apply age-specific predictions of PSA level (developed in men without cancer) to one cohort of men with clinically identified PCa and one cohort of men with PSA-detected PCa. We hypothesise that among men with clinically identified cancer, the annual increase in PSA level would be steeper than in men with PSA-detected cancer.
  
  
  METHODS
  The Scandinavian Prostate Cancer Group 4 (SPCG-4) cohort consisted of 321 men assigned to the watchful waiting arm of the SPCG-4 trial. The UK cohort consisted of 320 men with PSA-detected PCa in the Prostate testing for cancer and Treatment (ProtecT) study who opted for monitoring. Multilevel models describing changes in PSA level were fitted to the two cohorts, and average PSA level at age 50, change in PSA level with age, and predicted PSA values were derived.
  
  
  METHODS
  PSA level.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  In the SPCG-4 cohort, mean PSA at age 50 was similar to the cancer-free cohort but with a steeper yearly increase in PSA level (16.4% vs 4.0%). In the UK cohort, mean PSA level was higher than that in the cancer-free cohort (due to a PSA biopsy threshold of 3.0 ng/ml) but with a similar yearly increase in PSA level (4.1%). Predictions were less accurate for the SPCG-4 cohort (median difference between observed and predicted PSA level: -2.0 ng/ml; interquartile range [IQR]: -7.6-0.7 ng/ml) than for the UK cohort (median difference between observed and predicted PSA level: -0.8 ng/ml; IQR: -2.1-0.1 ng/ml).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  In PSA-detected men, yearly change in PSA was similar to that in cancer-free men, whereas in men with symptomatic PCa, the yearly change in PSA level was considerably higher. Our method needs further evaluation but has promise for refining active monitoring protocols.
authors.affiliation: Department of Social Medicine, Bristol University, Canynge Hall, Bristol, UK. kate.tilling@bristol.ac.uk
authors.forename: Kate
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Tilling
authors.forename: Hans
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Garmo
authors.forename: Chris
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Metcalfe
authors.forename: Lars
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Holmberg
authors.forename: Freddie C
authors.initials: FC
authors.lastname: Hamdy
authors.forename: David E
authors.initials: DE
authors.lastname: Neal
authors.forename: Jan
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Adolfsson
authors.forename: Richard M
authors.initials: RM
authors.lastname: Martin
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Davis
authors.forename: Katja
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Fall
authors.forename: J Athene
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Lane
authors.forename: Hans-Olaf
authors.initials: HO
authors.lastname: Adami
authors.forename: Anna
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Bill-Axelson
authors.forename: Jan-Eric
authors.initials: JE
authors.lastname: Johansson
authors.forename: Jenny L
authors.initials: JL
authors.lastname: Donovan
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D015331:Cohort Studies; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011159:Population Surveillance / Q000379:methods; D017430:Prostate-Specific Antigen / Q000097:blood*; D011471:Prostatic Neoplasms / Q000097:blood*
chemical_list: D017430:Prostate-Specific Antigen