title: Predicting attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder and oppositional defiant disorder from preschool diagnostic assessments.
abstract: The present study examined the power of measures of early preschool behavior to predict later diagnoses of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and oppositional defiant disorder (ODD)/conduct disorder (CD). Participants were 168 children with behavior problems at age 3 who underwent a multimethod assessment of ADHD and ODD symptoms and were followed annually for 3 years. Fifty-eight percent of 3-year-old children with behavior problems met criteria for ADHD and/or ODD/CD 3 years later. Using a diagnostic interview and rating scales at age 3, the authors could accurately predict later diagnostic status for 3/4 of children for ADHD and for 2/3 of children for ODD/CD. Predictive power of the best models did not increase significantly at age 4 and age 5 compared with age 3. Results provide support for the validity of early diagnoses of ADHD, although caution is needed in making diagnoses because a significant minority of children with early hyperactivity and inattention do outgrow their problems.
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychology, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003, USA. eharvey@psych.umass.edu
authors.forename: Elizabeth A
authors.initials: EA
authors.lastname: Harvey
authors.forename: Sara D
authors.initials: SD
authors.lastname: Youngwirth
authors.forename: Dhara A
authors.initials: DA
authors.lastname: Thakar
authors.forename: Paula A
authors.initials: PA
authors.lastname: Errazuriz
mesh_terms: D001289:Attention Deficit Disorder with Hyperactivity / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology*; D019958:Attention Deficit and Disruptive Behavior Disorders / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology*; D002675:Child, Preschool; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011446:Prospective Studies; D011569:Psychiatric Status Rating Scales