A prospective evaluation of the bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis score in assessing mortality and intermediate markers of severity in acute pancreatitis.
OBJECTIVE
Our aim was to prospectively evaluate the ability of the bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) score to predict mortality as well as intermediate markers of severity in a tertiary center.


METHODS
The BISAP score was evaluated among 397 consecutive cases of acute pancreatitis admitted to our institution between June 2005 and December 2007. BISAP scores were calculated on all cases using data within 24 h of presentation. The ability of the BISAP score to predict mortality was evaluated using trend and discrimination analysis. The optimal cutoff score for mortality from the receiver operating curve was used to evaluate the development of organ failure, persistent organ failure, and pancreatic necrosis.


RESULTS
Among 397 cases, there were 14 (3.5%) deaths. There was a statistically significant trend for increasing mortality (P < 0.0001) with increasing BISAP score. The area under the receiver operating curve for mortality by BISAP score in the prospective cohort was 0.82 (95% confidence interval: 0.70, 0.95), which was similar to that of the previously published validation cohort. A BISAP score >or=3 was associated with an increased risk of developing organ failure (odds ratio=7.4, 95% confidence interval: 2.8, 19.5), persistent organ failure (odds ratio=12.7, 95% confidence interval: 4.7, 33.9), and pancreatic necrosis (odds ratio=3.8, 95% confidence interval: 1.8, 8.5).


CONCLUSIONS
The BISAP score represents a simple way to identify patients at risk of increased mortality and the development of intermediate markers of severity within 24 h of presentation. This risk stratification capability can be utilized to improve clinical care and facilitate enrollment in clinical trials.
Singh
Vikesh K
VK
Division of Gastroenterology, Center for Pancreatic Disease, Harvard Medical School, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
Wu
Bechien U
BU
Bollen
Thomas L
TL
Repas
Kathryn
K
Maurer
Rie
R
Johannes
Richard S
RS
Mortele
Koenraad J
KJ
Conwell
Darwin L
DL
Banks
Peter A
PA
D015415:Biomarkers / Q000032:analysis*; D002760:Cholangiopancreatography, Endoscopic Retrograde; D003937:Diagnosis, Differential; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D008279:Magnetic Resonance Imaging; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D019283:Pancreatitis, Acute Necrotizing / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000378:metabolism / Q000401:mortality; D019095:Point-of-Care Systems; D011379:Prognosis; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012372:ROC Curve; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D015996:Survival Rate; D014057:Tomography, X-Ray Computed; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology
D015415:Biomarkers