Prediction of mortality in adult emergency department patients with sepsis.
OBJECTIVE
To determine the efficacy of the abbreviated Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) score, the Modified Early Warning (MEW) score and near-patient-test (NPT) lactate levels in predicting 28-day mortality in adult emergency department (ED) patients with sepsis.


METHODS
A retrospective cohort study of adult ED patients with sepsis admitted to hospital was conducted in a large urban teaching and a district general hospital. Data were collected during four time periods between 1 January 2006 and 31 January 2007. Inclusion criteria were age > or =16 years and an ED diagnosis of sepsis. Primary outcome for all patients was 28-day mortality. Patients were preassigned to risk groups according to their abbreviated MEDS score, MEW score and NPT lactate.


RESULTS
307 ED patients with sepsis were included in the study. Among these there were 72 deaths (23%). Mortality rates for the low-, moderate- and high-risk groups of the abbreviated MEDS score were 1/63 (1.6%), 48/205 (23.4%) and 23/39 (59.0%) patients. The MEDS score for low-risk patients was 98.6% (95% CI 92.5% to 99.9%) sensitive and 26.5% (95% CI 21.0% to 32.6%) specific and for high-risk patients it was 31.9% (95% CI 21.4% to 44.0%) sensitive and 93.2% (95% CI 89.2% to 96.1%) specific for death within 28 days. Mortality rates for the low- and high-risk MEW score were 20/159 (12.6%) and 52/148 (35.1%) patients. The MEW score for high-risk patients was 72.2% (95% CI 60.4% to 82.1%) sensitive and 59.2% (95% CI 52.6% to 65.5%) specific for mortality. An NPT lactate level of > or =4 mmol/l was 49.1% (95% CI 35.1% to 63.2%) sensitive and 74.3% (95% CI 64.8% to 82.3%) specific for 28-day mortality.


CONCLUSIONS
These results demonstrate the efficacy of the abbreviated MEDS score, the MEW score and NPT venous lactate levels in predicting 28-day mortality in ED patients with sepsis. The abbreviated MEDS score was found to be the best performing risk assessment model which, with prospective validation, may aid early clinical decision-making in ED patients with sepsis and might affect the outcome from sepsis.
Vorwerk
C
C
Emergency Department Academic Unit, Leicester Royal Infirmary, Leicester, UK. cv28@le.ac.uk
Loryman
B
B
Coats
T J
TJ
Stephenson
J A
JA
Gray
L D
LD
Reddy
G
G
Florence
L
L
Butler
N
N
D000368:Aged; D015415:Biomarkers / Q000097:blood; D004636:Emergency Service, Hospital; D004739:England / Q000453:epidemiology; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D019344:Lactic Acid / Q000097:blood; D008297:Male; D011379:Prognosis; D018805:Sepsis / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000401:mortality
D015415:Biomarkers; D019344:Lactic Acid