title: Gender differences in structured risk assessment: comparing the accuracy of five instruments.
abstract: Structured risk assessment should guide clinical risk management, but it is uncertain which instrument has the highest predictive accuracy among men and women. In the present study, the authors compared the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R; R. D. Hare, 1991, 2003); the Historical, Clinical, Risk Management-20 (HCR-20; C. D. Webster, K. S. Douglas, D. Eaves, & S. D. Hart, 1997); the Risk Matrix 2000-Violence (RM2000[V]; D. Thornton et al., 2003); the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG; V. L. Quinsey, G. T. Harris, M. E. Rice, & C. A. Cormier, 1998); the Offenders Group Reconviction Scale (OGRS; J. B. Copas & P. Marshall, 1998; R. Taylor, 1999); and the total previous convictions among prisoners, prospectively assessed prerelease. The authors compared predischarge measures with subsequent offending and instruments ranked using multivariate regression. Most instruments demonstrated significant but moderate predictive ability. The OGRS ranked highest for violence among men, and the PCL-R and HCR-20 H subscale ranked highest for violence among women. The OGRS and total previous acquisitive convictions demonstrated greatest accuracy in predicting acquisitive offending among men and women. Actuarial instruments requiring no training to administer performed as well as personality assessment and structured risk assessment and were superior among men for violence.
authors.affiliation: Barts and the London School of Medicine and Dentistry, Queen Mary University of London, Forensic Psychiatry Research Unit, London, United Kingdom. j.w.coid@qmul.ac.uk
authors.forename: Jeremy
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Coid
authors.forename: Min
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.forename: Simone
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Ullrich
authors.forename: Tianqiang
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.forename: Steve
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Sizmur
authors.forename: Colin
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Roberts
authors.forename: David P
authors.initials: DP
authors.lastname: Farrington
authors.forename: Robert D
authors.initials: RD
authors.lastname: Rogers
mesh_terms: D002391:Catchment Area, Health; D004739:England / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D001523:Mental Disorders / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000523:psychology*; D011329:Prisoners / Q000523:psychology / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D011446:Prospective Studies; D011581:Psychological Tests; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D012737:Sex Factors; D012725:Sexual Behavior / Q000523:psychology*; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires; D014754:Violence / Q000523:psychology* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D014852:Wales / Q000453:epidemiology