Does famine have a long-term effect on cohort mortality? Evidence from the 1959-1961 great leap forward famine in China.
Using retrospective individual mortality records of three cohorts of newborns (1954-1958, 1959-1962 and 1963-1967) from a large national fertility survey conducted in 1988 in China, this paper examines the effect of being conceived or born during the 1959-1961 Great Leap Forward Famine on postnatal mortality. The results show strong evidence of a short-term (period) effect of the famine, caused directly by starvation or severe malnutrition during the period of the famine. After controlling for period mortality fluctuation, however, the famine-born cohort does not show higher mortality than either the pre-famine or the post-famine cohort. Aggregate-level cross-temporal comparisons using published cohort population counts from China's 1982 Census, 1990 Census, 1995 micro-Census, 2000 Census and 2005 micro-Census lead to the same conclusion. The relevance of these new findings for the 'fetal origins' hypothesis and the selection effect hypothesis is discussed.
Song
Shige
S
Institute of Sociology, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing, China.
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D002423:Cause of Death; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009026:Mortality / Q000639:trends; D011247:Pregnancy; D011297:Prenatal Exposure Delayed Effects / Q000401:mortality*; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D013217:Starvation / Q000401:mortality*; D016019:Survival Analysis; D013997:Time Factors