Seasonality and outbreaks in West Nile virus infection.
In this paper we analyze the impact of seasonal variations on the dynamics of West Nile Virus infection. We are interested in the generation of new epidemic peaks starting from an endemic state. In many cases, the oscillations generated by seasonality in the dynamics of the infection are too small to be observable. The interplay of this seasonality with the epidemic oscillations can generate new outbreaks starting from the endemic state through a mechanism of parametric resonance. Using experimental data we present specific cases where this phenomenon is numerically observed.
Cruz-Pacheco
Gustavo
G
IIMAS, UNAM, Mexico City 04510, Mexico. cruz@mym.iimas.unam.mx
Esteva
Lourdes
L
Vargas
Cristobal
C
D000465:Algorithms; D000818:Animals; D050936:Basic Reproduction Number; D001717:Birds / Q000502:physiology / Q000821:virology; D003198:Computer Simulation; D009033:Culicidae / Q000502:physiology / Q000821:virology; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D019353:Endemic Diseases; D006801:Humans; D007303:Insect Vectors / Q000502:physiology / Q000821:virology; D008954:Models, Biological; D017711:Nonlinear Dynamics; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012621:Seasons; D014901:West Nile Fever / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission