title: Land use and land cover change analysis and prediction in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River, China.
abstract: Scientists have aimed at exploring land use and land cover change (LUCC) and modeling future landscape pattern in order to improve our understanding of the causes and consequences of these phenomena. This study addresses LUCC in the upper reaches of Minjiang River, China, from 1974 to 2000. Based on remotely sensed images, LUCC and landscape pattern change were assessed using cross-tabulation and landscape metrics. Then, using the CLUE-S model, changes in area of four types of land cover were predicted for two scenarios considering forest polices over the next 20 years. Results showed that forestland decreased from 1974 to 2000 due to continuous deforestation, while grassland and shrubland increased correspondingly. At the same time, the farmland and settlement land increased dramatically. Landscape fragmentation in the study area accompanied these changes. Forestland, grassland, and farmland take opposite trajectories in the two scenarios, as does landscape fragmentation. LUCC has led to ecological consequences, such as biodiversity loss and lowering of ecological carrying capacity.
authors.affiliation: Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang, 110016, People's Republic of China. lium79@163.com
authors.forename: Miao
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.forename: Yuanman
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Hu
authors.forename: Yu
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Chang
authors.forename: Xinyuan
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: He
authors.forename: Wei
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Zhang
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture / Q000639:trends*; D044822:Biodiversity; D002681:China; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources / Q000639:trends*; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D045483:Rivers