title: Risk factors for complications after ERCP: a multivariate analysis of 11,497 procedures over 12 years.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Complications of ERCP are an important concern. We sought to determine predictors of post-ERCP complications at our institution.
  
  
  METHODS
  GI TRAC is a comprehensive data set of patients who underwent ERCP at our institution from 1994 through 2006. Logistic regression models were used to evaluate 4 categories of complications: (1) overall complications, (2) pancreatitis, (3) bleeding, and (4) severe or fatal complications. Independent predictors of complications were determined with multivariable logistic regression.
  
  
  RESULTS
  A total of 11,497 ERCP procedures were analyzed. There were 462 complications (4.0%), 42 of which were severe (0.36%) and 7 were fatal (0.06%). Specific complications of pancreatitis (2.6%) and bleeding (0.3%) were identified. Overall complications were statistically more likely among individuals with suspected sphincter of Oddi dysfunction (SOD) (odds ratio [OR] 1.91) and after a biliary sphincterotomy (OR 1.32). Subjects with a history of acute or chronic pancreatitis (OR 0.78) or who received a temporary small-caliber pancreatic stent (OR 0.69) had fewer complications. Post-ERCP pancreatitis was more likely to occur after a pancreatogram via the major papilla (OR 1.70) or minor papilla (OR 1.54) and among subjects with suspected SOD with stent placement (OR 1.45) or without stent placement (OR 1.84). Individuals undergoing biliary-stent exchange had less-frequent pancreatitis (OR 0.38). Biliary sphincterotomy was associated with bleeding (OR 4.71). Severe or fatal complications were associated with severe (OR 2.38) and incapacitating (OR 7.65) systemic disease, obesity (OR 5.18), known or suspected bile-duct stones (OR 4.08), pancreatic manometry (OR 3.57), and complex (grade 3) procedures (OR 2.86).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This study characterizes a large series of ERCP procedures from a single institution and outlines the incidence and predictors of complications.
authors.affiliation: Department of Medicine, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Digestive Disease Center, Medical University of South Carolina, Charleston, South Carolina 29425-2900, USA. cottonp@musc.edu
authors.forename: Peter B
authors.initials: PB
authors.lastname: Cotton
authors.forename: Donald A
authors.initials: DA
authors.lastname: Garrow
authors.forename: Joseph
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Gallagher
authors.forename: Joseph
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Romagnuolo
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002760:Cholangiopancreatography, Endoscopic Retrograde / Q000009:adverse effects*; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D016017:Odds Ratio; D011183:Postoperative Complications / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology; D015995:Prevalence; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D015996:Survival Rate / Q000639:trends; D013997:Time Factors; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology; D055815:Young Adult