An autoregressive integrated moving average model for short-term prediction of hepatitis C virus seropositivity among male volunteer blood donors in Karachi, Pakistan.
OBJECTIVE
To identify the stochastic autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for short term forecasting of hepatitis C virus (HCV) seropositivity among volunteer blood donors in Karachi, Pakistan.


METHODS
Ninety-six months (1998-2005) data on HCV seropositive cases (1000(-1) x month(-1)) among male volunteer blood donors tested at four major blood banks in Karachi, Pakistan were subjected to ARIMA modeling. Subsequently, a fitted ARIMA model was used to forecast HCV seropositive donors for 91-96 mo to contrast with observed series of the same months. To assess the forecast accuracy, the mean absolute error rate (%) between the observed and predicted HCV seroprevalence was calculated. Finally, a fitted ARIMA model was used for short-term forecasts beyond the observed series.


RESULTS
The goodness-of-fit test of the optimum ARIMA (2,1,7) model showed non-significant autocorrelations in the residuals of the model. The forecasts by ARIMA for 91-96 mo closely followed the pattern of observed series for the same months, with mean monthly absolute forecast errors (%) over 6 mo of 6.5%. The short-term forecasts beyond the observed series adequately captured the pattern in the data and showed increasing tendency of HCV seropositivity with a mean +/- SD HCV seroprevalence (1000(-1) x month(-1)) of 24.3 +/- 1.4 over the forecast interval.


CONCLUSIONS
To curtail HCV spread, public health authorities need to educate communities and health care providers about HCV transmission routes based on known HCV epidemiology in Pakistan and its neighboring countries. Future research may focus on factors associated with hyperendemic levels of HCV infection.
Akhtar
Saeed
S
Department of Community Medicine and Behavioral Sciences, Faculty of Medicine, Kuwait University, Safat, Kuwait. saeed.akhtar@hsc.edu.kw
Rozi
Shafquat
S