title: The promise of long-term effectiveness of school-based smoking prevention programs: a critical review of reviews.
abstract: I provide a review and critique of meta-analyses and systematic reviews of school-based smoking prevention programs that focus on long-term effects. Several of these reviews conclude that the effects of school-based smoking prevention programs are small and find no evidence that they have significant long-term effects. I find that these reviews all have methodological problems limiting their conclusions. These include severe limiting of the studies included because of performance bias, student attrition, non-reporting of ICCs, inappropriate classification of intervention approach, and inclusion of programs that had no short-term effects. The more-inclusive meta-analyses suggest that school-based smoking prevention programs can have significant and practical effects in both the short- and the long-term. Findings suggest that school-based smoking prevention programs can have significant long-term effects if they: 1) are interactive social influences or social skills programs; that 2) involve 15 or more sessions, including some up to at least ninth grade; that 3) produce substantial short-term effects. The effects do decay over time if the interventions are stopped or withdrawn, but this is true of any kind of intervention.
authors.affiliation: Department of Public Health, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon, USA. brian.flay@oregonstate.edu.
authors.forename: Brian R
authors.initials: BR
authors.lastname: Flay