Model-based long-term reconstruction of weather-driven variations in chronic oil pollution along the German North Sea coast.
Lagrangian passive tracer transport simulations covering the 46-year period 1958-2003 were utilized to compare the exposures of different parts of the German North Sea coast to ship-related chronic oil pollution. Assuming the spatial distribution of oil releases to be proportional to estimated ship traffic density, detailed drift reconstructions allowed for the reconstruction of wind-induced inter-annual variations in coastal pollution. For the winter months, a statistical relationship between simulated advective transports and prevailing sea surface pressure fields was established via Canonical Correlation Analysis. Wind effects were found to be more important for the northern (Schleswig-Holstein) than for the southern (Lower Saxony) part of the German North Sea coast. For Schleswig-Holstein, simulations showed consensus with beached bird survey data from this region. Proper identification of weather-driven inter-annual and spatial variations in monitoring data helps to avert misjudgments with regard to trends in the general level of chronic oil pollution.
GKSS Research Centre, Institute for Coastal Research, Modelling for the Assessment of Coastal Systems, Max-Planck-Str. 1, 21502 Geesthacht, Germany. alena.chrastansky@gkss.de
Alena
A
Chrastansky
Ulrich
U
Callies
D000818:Animals; D003198:Computer Simulation; D004784:Environmental Monitoring; D005858:Germany; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009659:North Sea; D010578:Petroleum / Q000032:analysis*; D012621:Seasons; D012767:Ships; D013997:Time Factors; D014872:Water Movements; D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical / Q000032:analysis*; D014887:Weather
D010578:Petroleum; D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical