Age-period-cohort analysis of hepatocellular carcinoma mortality in Taiwan, 1976-2005.
OBJECTIVE
Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most common malignant primary liver tumors worldwide. A previous study showed a decline in pediatric HCC in Taiwan after the universal vaccination program was initiated in 1984. We investigated whether the recent change in HCC mortality in Taiwan represented a short-term fluctuation or an emerging long-term decline trend.


METHODS
An age-period-cohort analysis was conducted to show HCC mortality trends between 1976 and 2005. A total of 121,643 HCC mortality cases (92,926 males and 28,717 females) of individuals older than 40 years of age was used in the analyses.


RESULTS
Results indicate an increasing secular trend in HCC mortality over the last three decades in people aged 60 years and above. In the age group of >85 years old, the mortality rate for males and females was 7.47 (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 6.24-8.94) and 25.0 (95% CI: 15.5-40.2) times greater than in the youngest age group (40-44), respectively. The relative risk of dying from HCC in the period 2001-2005 was 1.36 (95% CI: 1.23-1.50) for males compared to the 1976-1980 time period, and 1.42 (95% CI: 1.17-1.72) for females compared to the 1986-1990 time period. A strong birth-cohort effect was also found. Individuals born around 1936 had the highest risk of dying from HCC.


CONCLUSIONS
These findings imply that important determinants of HCC may occur early in life, with their effects only becoming apparent much later.
Lee
Long-Teng
LT
Department of Family Medicine, National Taiwan University Hospital and College of Medicine, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan
Huang
Hsiao-Yuan
HY
Huang
Kuo-Chin
KC
Chen
Ching-Yu
CY
Lee
Wen-Chung
WC
D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D006528:Carcinoma, Hepatocellular / Q000401:mortality*; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D017325:Hepatitis B Vaccines / Q000008:administration & dosage; D006801:Humans; D008113:Liver Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009026:Mortality / Q000639:trends; D012737:Sex Factors; D013624:Taiwan / Q000453:epidemiology
D017325:Hepatitis B Vaccines