Comment: there may be compositional effects, but they do not work that way.
This analysis joins the debate on how declines in marriage have shifted the composition of the unmarried and married populations in the United States, and how compositional shifts have affected nonmarital birth rates. Gray, Stockard, and Stone (2006) presented one model for compositional effects that Ermisch (2009) challenged with alternative statistical tests. I propose an alternative model for compositional shifts based not on theory but on observed marriage and fertility patterns. The results from this alternative model are consistent with Ermisch's findings yet support Gray et al.'s general case that compositional effects have had an important influence on nonmarital birth rates.
Martin
Steven
S
2112 Art-Sociology Building, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA. smartin@socy.umd.edu
D000328:Adult; D001741:Black or African American / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D001723:Birth Rate / Q000208:ethnology / Q000639:trends; D019352:Censuses; D005260:Female; D005298:Fertility; D006801:Humans; D007086:Illegitimacy / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D008393:Marriage / Q000208:ethnology* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data* / Q000639:trends; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011247:Pregnancy; D014481:United States; D044465:White People / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D055815:Young Adult