Estimating the public health impact of the effect of herpes simplex virus suppressive therapy on plasma HIV-1 viral load.
OBJECTIVE
Trials of herpes simplex virus (HSV) suppressive therapy among HSV-2/HIV-1-infected individuals have reported an impact on plasma HIV-1 viral loads (PVLs). Our aim was to estimate the population-level impact of suppressive therapy on female-to-male HIV-1 sexual transmission.


METHODS
By comparing prerandomization and postrandomization individual-level PVL data from the first two HSV suppressive therapy randomized controlled trials in sub-Saharan Africa, we estimated the effect of treatment on duration of asymptomatic infection and number of HIV-1 transmission events for each trial.


RESULTS
Assuming that a reduction in PVL is accompanied by an increased duration of HIV-1 asymptomatic infection, 4-6 years of HSV suppressive therapy produce a 1-year increase in the duration of this stage. To avert one HIV-1 transmission requires 8.8 [95% confidence interval (CI), 5.9-14.9] and 11.4 (95% CI, 7.8-27.5) women to be treated from halfway through their HIV-1 asymptomatic period, using results from Burkina Faso and South African trials, respectively. Regardless of the timing of treatment initiation, 51.6 (95% CI, 30.4-137.0) and 66.5 (95% CI, 36.7-222.6) treatment-years are required to avert one HIV-1 infection. Distributions of set-point PVL values from sub-Saharan African populations suggest that unintended adverse consequences of therapy at the population level (i.e. increased HIV-1 transmission due to increased duration of infection) are unlikely to occur in these settings.


CONCLUSIONS
HSV suppressive therapy may avert relatively few HIV-1 transmission events per person-year of treatment. Its use as a prevention intervention may be limited; however, further research into its effect on rate of CD4 cell count decline and the impact of higher dosing schedules is warranted.
MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK. r.baggaley@imperial.ac.uk
Rebecca F
RF
Baggaley
Jamie T
JT
Griffin
Ruth
R
Chapman
T Déirdre
TD
Hollingsworth
Nicolas
N
Nagot
Sinead
S
Delany
Philippe
P
Mayaud
Frank
F
de Wolf
Christophe
C
Fraser
Azra C
AC
Ghani
Helen A
HA
Weiss
D017954:Africa South of the Sahara / Q000453:epidemiology; D000998:Antiviral Agents / Q000494:pharmacology*; D018791:CD4 Lymphocyte Count; D005260:Female; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000276:immunology / Q000635:transmission / Q000821:virology*; D015497:HIV-1 / Q000187:drug effects; D006558:Herpes Genitalis / Q000517:prevention & control*; D018258:Herpesvirus 2, Human / Q000187:drug effects*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D011634:Public Health; D012367:RNA, Viral / Q000097:blood
D000998:Antiviral Agents; D012367:RNA, Viral