Model-based long-term reconstruction of weather-driven variations in chronic oil pollution along the German North Sea coast.
Lagrangian passive tracer transport simulations covering the 46-year period 1958-2003 were utilized to compare the exposures of different parts of the German North Sea coast to ship-related chronic oil pollution. Assuming the spatial distribution of oil releases to be proportional to estimated ship traffic density, detailed drift reconstructions allowed for the reconstruction of wind-induced inter-annual variations in coastal pollution. For the winter months, a statistical relationship between simulated advective transports and prevailing sea surface pressure fields was established via Canonical Correlation Analysis. Wind effects were found to be more important for the northern (Schleswig-Holstein) than for the southern (Lower Saxony) part of the German North Sea coast. For Schleswig-Holstein, simulations showed consensus with beached bird survey data from this region. Proper identification of weather-driven inter-annual and spatial variations in monitoring data helps to avert misjudgments with regard to trends in the general level of chronic oil pollution.
Chrastansky
Alena
A
GKSS Research Centre, Institute for Coastal Research, Modelling for the Assessment of Coastal Systems, Max-Planck-Str. 1, 21502 Geesthacht, Germany. alena.chrastansky@gkss.de
Callies
Ulrich
U
D000818:Animals; D003198:Computer Simulation; D004784:Environmental Monitoring; D005858:Germany; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009659:North Sea; D010578:Petroleum / Q000032:analysis*; D012621:Seasons; D012767:Ships; D013997:Time Factors; D014872:Water Movements; D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical / Q000032:analysis*; D014887:Weather
D010578:Petroleum; D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical