Fewer deaths from cardiovascular disease than expected from the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation chart in a Swedish population.
BACKGROUND
Numerous equations to predict cardiovascular risk have been developed, but they differ in their ability to identify high-risk groups. In particular, concerns have been expressed that the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) equation may overestimate the risk of fatal myocardial infarction and stroke in certain European populations.


METHODS
The SCORE guidelines were applied to a sample of 10,476 male and 11,874 female participants from the Västerbotten Intervention Program (VIP) of northern Sweden who were screened between 1990 and 1994, at the age of 40, 50, or 60 years, and followed up for at least 10 years or until death.


RESULTS
The cohort experienced a total of 229 fatal cardiovascular events, 169 for men and 60 for women, during the course of follow-up, whereas 359 (266 for men and 93 for women) were predicted through application of the Swedish SCORE risk chart.


CONCLUSIONS
Application of the SCORE guidelines resulted in substantial overestimation of the expected number of deaths from cardiovascular disease in a population from northern Sweden.
Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Epidemiology and Public Health Sciences, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden. hans.stenlund@epiph.umu.se
Hans
H
Stenlund
Göran
G
Lönnberg
Paul
P
Jenkins
Margareta
M
Norberg
Mats
M
Persson
Torbjörn
T
Messner
Kurt
K
Boman
Thomas
T
Pearson
Stig
S
Wall
Lennarth
L
Nyström
Lars
L
Weinehall
D000328:Adult; D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000209:etiology / Q000401:mortality*; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008954:Models, Biological; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D013548:Sweden / Q000453:epidemiology; D013997:Time Factors