Water-borne transmission drives avian influenza dynamics in wild birds: the case of the 2005-2006 epidemics in the Camargue area.
Transmission and persistence of avian influenza viruses (AIV) among wildlife remains an unresolved issue because it depends both on the ecology of the host (e.g. population density, migration) and on the environment (e.g. AIV persistence in water). We have developed a mathematical model that accounts for both AIV epidemics and bird community dynamics. The model is parameterized using bird counts and AIV prevalence data. Results suggest that the transmission patterns driving the dynamics of infection at our study site (Camargue, South of France) involved both a density-dependent and a water-borne transmission processes. Water-borne transmission is, however, the main determinant of the disease dynamics and observed prevalence level. This pattern of transmission highlights the importance of the persistence of viral particles in water in AIV dynamics in wild birds.
Roche
Benjamin
B
Génétique et Evolution des Maladies Infectieuses, UMR CNRS/IRD 2724, 911, avenue Agropolis, BP 64504, 34394 Montpellier Cedex 5, France. roche.ben@gmail.com
Lebarbenchon
Camille
C
Gauthier-Clerc
Michel
M
Chang
Chung-Ming
CM
Thomas
Frédéric
F
Renaud
François
F
van der Werf
Sylvie
S
Guégan
Jean-François
JF
D000465:Algorithms; D000818:Animals; D001717:Birds / Q000821:virology; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D005602:France / Q000453:epidemiology; D054884:Host-Pathogen Interactions; D006801:Humans; D009980:Influenza A virus / Q000235:genetics / Q000472:pathogenicity / Q000502:physiology*; D005585:Influenza in Birds / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission* / Q000821:virology; D008954:Models, Biological; D011157:Population Dynamics; D014871:Water Microbiology