title: Serum bicarbonate levels and the progression of kidney disease: a cohort study.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Animal models of kidney disease have linked metabolic acidosis with renal damage. The role of low serum bicarbonate levels in kidney disease progression in humans has not been studied.
  
  
  METHODS
  Retrospective cohort study.
  
  
  METHODS
  Adults visiting a medical clinic in the Bronx, NY, from January 1, 2001, to December 31, 2003, were included in the study (n = 5,422) and followed up until June 30, 2007.
  
  
  METHODS
  Serum bicarbonate level.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Kidney disease progression was defined as either a decrease in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) by 50% or reaching an eGFR less than 15 mL/min/1.73 m(2) (n = 337).
  
  
  METHODS
  Patients' baseline demographics, comorbid conditions, laboratory data, and socioeconomic status were recorded. Serial outpatient serum creatinine levels were collected (median, 5 measurements/person).
  
  
  RESULTS
  Mean age was 52 years, 69% were women, 45% were African American, 31% were Hispanic, 21% had diabetes mellitus, 41% had hypertension, and 9% had a baseline eGFR less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2). Kidney disease progressed as defined in 337 patients (6.2%). Compared with the reference group (bicarbonate level, 25 to 26 mEq/L), hazard ratios for progression after adjustment for potential confounders were 1.54 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.13 to 2.09) for bicarbonate levels of 22 mEq/L or less, 0.97 (95% CI, 0.70 to 1.35) for 23 to 24 mEq/L, and 1.14 (95% CI, 0.84 to 1.55) for 27 mEq/L or greater (global P for inclusion of serum bicarbonate level in the model = 0.01). These results were similar using different definitions of the outcome (eGFR decrease of 30%, 1,288 outcomes [24%]; or doubling of serum creatinine level, 268 outcomes [4.9%]).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Data used in the study were collected for clinical, not research, purposes.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Low serum bicarbonate level is associated with progression of kidney disease independent of baseline eGFR and other clinical, demographic, and socioeconomic factors. Prospective studies are needed to confirm this relationship and evaluate the efficacy of alkali supplements for slowing progression.
authors.affiliation: Albert Einstein College of Medicine/Montefiore Medical Center, Bronx, NY, USA.
authors.forename: Samir N
authors.initials: SN
authors.lastname: Shah
authors.forename: Matthew
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Abramowitz
authors.forename: Thomas H
authors.initials: TH
authors.lastname: Hostetter
authors.forename: Michal L
authors.initials: ML
authors.lastname: Melamed
mesh_terms: D001639:Bicarbonates / Q000097:blood*; D015331:Cohort Studies; D018450:Disease Progression; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007674:Kidney Diseases / Q000097:blood*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D012189:Retrospective Studies
chemical_list: D001639:Bicarbonates