title: The STRATIFY tool and clinical judgment were poor predictors of falling in an acute hospital setting.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To compare the effectiveness of the STRATIFY falls tool with nurses' clinical judgments in predicting patient falls.
  
  
  METHODS
  A prospective cohort study was conducted among the inpatients of an acute tertiary hospital. Participants were patients over 65 years of age admitted to any hospital unit. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive values (NPV) of the instrument and nurses' clinical judgments in predicting falls were calculated.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Seven hundred and eighty-eight patients were screened and followed up during the study period. The fall prevalence was 9.2%. Of the 335 patients classified as being "at risk" for falling using the STRATIFY tool, 59 (17.6%) did sustain a fall (sensitivity=0.82, specificity=0.61, PPV=0.18, NPV=0.97). Nurses judged that 501 patients were at risk of falling and, of these, 60 (12.0%) fell (sensitivity=0.84, specificity=0.38, PPV=0.12, NPV=0.96). The STRATIFY tool correctly identified significantly more patients as either fallers or nonfallers than the nurses (P=0.027).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Considering the poor specificity and high rates of false-positive results for both the STRATIFY tool and nurses' clinical judgments, we conclude that neither of these approaches are useful for screening of falls in acute hospital settings.
authors.affiliation: Centre for Clinical Nursing, Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital, Brisbane, Queensland 402, Australia. joan_webster@health.qld.gov.au
authors.forename: Joan
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Webster
authors.forename: Mary
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Courtney
authors.forename: Nicole
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Marsh
authors.forename: Catherine
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Gale
authors.forename: Belynda
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Abbott
authors.forename: Anita
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Mackenzie-Ross
authors.forename: Prue
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: McRae
mesh_terms: D000058:Accidental Falls / Q000517:prevention & control*; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D005260:Female; D015577:Geriatric Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D006760:Hospitalization; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D009730:Nursing Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D017063:Outcome Assessment, Health Care / Q000379:methods; D011379:Prognosis; D011793:Queensland