title: Factors predictive of tumor recurrence and survival after initial complete response of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma to definitive chemoradiotherapy.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To assess factors predictive of recurrent disease and survival after achieving initial complete response (CR) to chemoradiotherapy (CRT) for esophageal cancer.
  
  
  METHODS
  Patients who had clinical Stage I-IVA esophageal cancer and received definitive CRT between 2001 and 2007 were retrospectively analyzed.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Of 269 patients with esophageal cancer, 110 who achieved CR after definitive CRT were included in the analyses. Chemoradiotherapy mainly consisted of 2 cycles of cisplatin and fluorouracil with concurrent radiotherapy of 60 Gy in 30 fractions. We identified 28 recurrences and 28 deaths during follow-up. The cumulative 1- and 3-year recurrence rates were 18% and 32%, respectively. By univariate and multivariate analyses, tumor category (hazard ratio [HR] 6.6; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.4-30.2; p = 0.015) was an independent risk factor for local recurrence, whereas age (HR 3.9; 95% CI 1.1-14.0; p = 0.034) and primary tumor location (HR 4.5; 95% CI 1.6-12.4; p = 0.004) were independent risk factors for regional lymph node or distant recurrences. The cumulative overall 1- and 3-year survival rates were 91% and 66%, respectively. As expected, recurrence was associated with poor survival (p = 0.019). By univariate and multivariate analyses, primary tumor location (HR 3.8; 95% CI 1.2-12.0; p = 0.024) and interval to recurrence (HR 4.3; 95% CI 1.3-14.4; p = 0.018) were independent factors predictive of survival after recurrence.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Risk of recurrence after definitive CRT for esophageal cancer was associated with tumor category, age, and primary tumor location; this information may help in improved prognostication for these patients.
authors.affiliation: Department of Gastrointestinal Oncology, Osaka Medical Center for Cancer and Cardiovascular Diseases, Osaka, Japan. isihara-ry@mc.pref.osaka.jp
authors.forename: Ryu
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Ishihara
authors.forename: Sachiko
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Yamamoto
authors.forename: Hiroyasu
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Iishi
authors.forename: Yoji
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Takeuchi
authors.forename: Naotoshi
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Sugimoto
authors.forename: Koji
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Higashino
authors.forename: Noriya
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Uedo
authors.forename: Masaharu
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Tatsuta
authors.forename: Masahiko
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Yano
authors.forename: Atsushi
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Imai
authors.forename: Kinji
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Nishiyama
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000704:Analysis of Variance; D000971:Antineoplastic Combined Chemotherapy Protocols / Q000627:therapeutic use; D002294:Carcinoma, Squamous Cell / Q000188:drug therapy / Q000401:mortality / Q000473:pathology / Q000532:radiotherapy; D002945:Cisplatin / Q000008:administration & dosage; D003131:Combined Modality Therapy; D016001:Confidence Intervals; D004938:Esophageal Neoplasms / Q000188:drug therapy / Q000401:mortality / Q000473:pathology / Q000532:radiotherapy; D005260:Female; D005472:Fluorouracil / Q000008:administration & dosage; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009364:Neoplasm Recurrence, Local / Q000401:mortality / Q000628:therapy; D009367:Neoplasm Staging; D011879:Radiotherapy Dosage; D012074:Remission Induction; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D015996:Survival Rate
chemical_list: D002945:Cisplatin; D005472:Fluorouracil