Impact of the aging population on the demand for colorectal procedures.
OBJECTIVE
With the baby boomers entering retirement age, the United States population is seeing a dramatic increase in the number of elderly individuals. We hypothesized that as a result, during the next 20 years, the demand for colorectal procedures will grow rapidly.


METHODS
We used the 2005 Nationwide Inpatient Sample and the Florida State Ambulatory Surgery Database as source data. From these two data sources, we identified commonly performed inpatient and outpatient colorectal procedures, as well as associated diagnoses. These data were combined with census projections to generate projected volumes for the selected procedures and diagnoses.


RESULTS
Between 2005 and 2025, the United States population is expected to grow by 18 percent, with disproportionate growth in individuals aged 65 to 74 years (92 percent) and those aged 75+ years (54 percent). We forecast that growth in outpatient procedures and inpatient procedures will be 21.3 percent and 40.6 percent, respectively. Inpatient operations for colon cancer and rectal cancer show the greatest growth.


CONCLUSIONS
During the next two decades, demographic changes in the United States population will lead to a marked increase in the use of colorectal surgical services, especially inpatient and oncologic procedures. The ability of the surgical workforce to meet this projected growth in demand should be assessed.
Etzioni
David A
DA
Department of Colorectal Surgery, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California 90033, USA. etzioni.david@gmail.com
Beart
Robert W
RW
Madoff
Robert D
RD
Ault
Glenn T
GT
D000368:Aged; D000556:Ambulatory Surgical Procedures / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D003110:Colonic Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000601:surgery; D003107:Colorectal Surgery; D004066:Digestive System Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000601:surgery; D013505:Digestive System Surgical Procedures / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005544:Forecasting; D006297:Health Services Accessibility / Q000639:trends; D006301:Health Services Needs and Demand / Q000639:trends*; D006801:Humans; D038801:International Classification of Diseases; D010820:Physicians / Q000600:supply & distribution; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012004:Rectal Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000601:surgery; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology; D000078329:Workforce