title: Predictive tool for estimating the potential effect of water fluoridation on dental caries.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To provide a tool for public health planners to estimate the potential improvement in dental caries in children that might be expected in a region if its water supply were to be fluoridated.
  
  
  METHODS
  Recent BASCD (British Association for the Study of Community Dentistry) dental epidemiological data for caries in 5- and 11-year-old children in English primary care trusts in fluoridated and non-fluoridated areas were analysed to estimate absolute and relative improvement in dmft/DMFT and caries-free measures observed in England. Where data were sufficient for testing significance this analysis included the effect of different levels of deprivation.
  
  
  RESULTS
  A table of observed improvements was produced, together with an example of how that table can be used as a tool for estimating the expected improvement in caries in any specific region of England. Observed absolute improvements and 95% confidence intervals were: for 5-year-olds reduction in mean dmft 0.56 (0.38, 0.74) for IMD 12, 0.73 (0.60, 0.85) for IMD 20, and 0.94 (0.76, 1.12) for IMD 30, with 12% (9%, 14%) more children free of caries; for 11-year-olds reduction in mean DMFT 0.12 (0.04, 0.20) for IMD 12, 0.19 (0.13, 0.26) for IMD 20, 0.29 (0.18, 0.40) and for IMD 30, with 8% (5%, 11%) more children free from caries.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The BASCD data taken together with a deprivation measure are capable of yielding an age-specific, 'intention to treat' model of water fluoridation that can be used to estimate the potential effect on caries levels of a notional new fluoridation scheme in an English region.
authors.affiliation: Wirral Primary Care Trust, University of Mancheste, University College London, UK.
authors.forename: G R K
authors.initials: GR
authors.lastname: Foster
authors.forename: M C
authors.initials: MC
authors.lastname: Downer
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Lunt
authors.forename: V
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Aggarwal
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Tickle
mesh_terms: D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D004245:DMF Index; D003731:Dental Caries / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control*; D003733:Dental Caries Susceptibility; D005457:Fluoridation / Q000379:methods / Q000592:standards*; D005544:Forecasting; D006285:Health Planning / Q000379:methods*; D006801:Humans; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011634:Public Health; D018570:Risk Assessment; D006113:United Kingdom / Q000453:epidemiology