title: Predictors of survival after resection of early hepatocellular carcinoma.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To identify clinicopathologic factors that predict survival following hepatectomy in patients with early hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).
  
  
  BACKGROUND
  Although surgical resection of early HCC is thought to be associated with a good outcome, factors predictive of prognosis following resection of these tumors remain ill-defined.
  
  
  METHODS
  The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database was used to identify patients with histologically confirmed early HCC (< or =5 cm and no nodal involvement, metastases, or major vascular invasion) who underwent surgical resection (not ablation or transplantation) between 1988 and 2005. Prognostic factors were evaluated using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards models.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The study included 788 patients. Median tumor size was 3.2 cm, and 20% of patients had tumors < or =2 cm. Most HCC lesions were solitary (74%) and had no evidence of vascular invasion (82%). Following surgery, overall median and 5-year survival were 45 months and 39%, respectively. After adjusting for demographic factors and histological grade, tumor size >2 cm (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.51), multifocal tumors (HR: 1.51), and vascular invasion (HR: 1.44) remained independent predictors of poor survival (all P < 0.05). Based on these findings, a prognostic scoring system was developed that allotted 1 point each for these factors. Patients with early HCC could be stratified into 3 distinct prognostic groups (median and 5-year survival, respectively): 0 points (70 months, 55%), 1 point (52 months, 42%), and > or =2 points (24 months, 29%) (P < 0.001).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Although early HCC is generally associated with a good prognosis, pathologic factors can still be used to stratify patients with respect to survival after resection. These data emphasize the importance of pathologic staging even in small HCC.
authors.affiliation: Department of Surgery, The Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland 21287, USA.
authors.forename: Hari
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Nathan
authors.forename: Richard D
authors.initials: RD
authors.lastname: Schulick
authors.forename: Michael A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Choti
authors.forename: Timothy M
authors.initials: TM
authors.lastname: Pawlik
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D006528:Carcinoma, Hepatocellular / Q000401:mortality* / Q000473:pathology / Q000601:surgery*; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D006498:Hepatectomy; D006801:Humans; D008113:Liver Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality* / Q000473:pathology / Q000601:surgery*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009367:Neoplasm Staging; D011379:Prognosis; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D018426:SEER Program; D016019:Survival Analysis; D014481:United States; D055815:Young Adult