How colored environmental noise affects population extinction.
Environmental noise can cause an exponential reduction in the mean time to extinction (MTE) of an isolated population. We study this effect on an example of a stochastic birth-death process with rates modulated by a colored (that is, correlated) Gaussian noise. A path integral formulation yields a transparent way of evaluating the MTE and finding the optimal realization of the environmental noise that determines the most probable path to extinction. The population-size dependence of the MTE changes from exponential in the absence of the environmental noise to a power law for a short-correlated noise and to no dependence for long-correlated noise. We also establish the validity domains of the white-noise limit and adiabatic limit.
Kamenev
Alex
A
Department of Physics, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota 55455, USA.
Meerson
Baruch
B
Shklovskii
Boris
B
D004777:Environment; D053476:Extinction, Biological; D009622:Noise; D016011:Normal Distribution; D011157:Population Dynamics