title: Personalized prediction of tumor response and cancer progression on prostate needle biopsy.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To our knowledge in patients with prostate cancer there are no available tests except clinical variables to determine the likelihood of disease progression. We developed a patient specific, biology driven tool to predict outcome at diagnosis. We also investigated whether biopsy androgen receptor levels predict a durable response to therapy after secondary treatment.
  
  
  METHODS
  We evaluated paraffin embedded prostate needle biopsy tissue from 1,027 patients with cT1c-T3 prostate cancer treated with surgery and followed a median of 8 years. Machine learning was done to integrate clinical data with biopsy quantitative biometric features. Multivariate models were constructed to predict disease progression with the C index to estimate performance.
  
  
  RESULTS
  In a training set of 686 patients (total of 87 progression events) 3 clinical and 3 biopsy tissue characteristics were identified to predict clinical progression within 8 years after prostatectomy with 78% sensitivity, 69% specificity, a C index of 0.74 and a HR of 5.12. Validation in an independent cohort of 341 patients (total of 44 progression events) yielded 76% sensitivity, 64% specificity, a C index of 0.73 and a HR of 3.47. Increased androgen receptor in tumor cells in the biopsy highly significantly predicted resistance to therapy, ie androgen ablation with or without salvage radiotherapy, and clinical failure (p <0.0001).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Morphometry reliably classifies Gleason pattern 3 tumors. When combined with biomarker data, it adds to the hematoxylin and eosin analysis, and prostate specific antigen values currently used to assess outcome at diagnosis. Biopsy androgen receptor levels predict the likelihood of a response to therapy after recurrence and may guide future treatment decisions.
authors.affiliation: Aureon Laboratories, Inc., New York, New York 10701, USA. Michael.Donovan@aureon.com
authors.forename: Michael J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Donovan
authors.forename: Faisal M
authors.initials: FM
authors.lastname: Khan
authors.forename: Gerardo
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Fernandez
authors.forename: Ricardo
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Mesa-Tejada
authors.forename: Marina
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Sapir
authors.forename: Valentina Bayer
authors.initials: VB
authors.lastname: Zubek
authors.forename: Douglas
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Powell
authors.forename: Stephen
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Fogarasi
authors.forename: Yevgen
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Vengrenyuk
authors.forename: Mikhail
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Teverovskiy
authors.forename: Mark R
authors.initials: MR
authors.lastname: Segal
authors.forename: R Jeffrey
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: Karnes
authors.forename: Thomas A
authors.initials: TA
authors.lastname: Gaffey
authors.forename: Christer
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Busch
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Haggman
authors.forename: Peter
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Hlavcak
authors.forename: Stephen J
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: Freedland
authors.forename: Robin T
authors.initials: RT
authors.lastname: Vollmer
authors.forename: Peter
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Albertsen
authors.forename: Jose
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Costa
authors.forename: Carlos
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Cordon-Cardo
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000704:Analysis of Variance; D001707:Biopsy, Needle / Q000379:methods*; D015331:Cohort Studies; D018450:Disease Progression; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D007150:Immunohistochemistry; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009361:Neoplasm Invasiveness / Q000473:pathology; D009364:Neoplasm Recurrence, Local / Q000401:mortality / Q000473:pathology*; D009367:Neoplasm Staging; D016612:Paraffin Embedding / Q000379:methods; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011336:Probability; D017430:Prostate-Specific Antigen / Q000097:blood*; D011468:Prostatectomy / Q000379:methods; D011471:Prostatic Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality / Q000473:pathology* / Q000601:surgery*; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D016019:Survival Analysis; D013997:Time Factors; D016896:Treatment Outcome
chemical_list: D017430:Prostate-Specific Antigen