title: A cohort study to examine whether time and risk preference is related to smoking cessation success.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To identify whether time and risk preference predicts relapse among smokers trying to quit.
  
  
  METHODS
  A cohort study of smokers who had recently started to quit. Time and risk preference parameters were estimated using a discrete choice experiment (DCE).
  
  
  METHODS
  A total of 689 smokers who began quitting smoking within the previous month.
  
  
  METHODS
  Time discount rate, coefficient of risk-aversion measured at study entry and duration of smoking cessation measured for 6 months.
  
  
  RESULTS
  In the unadjusted model, Cox's proportional hazard regression showed that those with a high time discount rate were more likely to relapse [hazard ratio: 1.18, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.11-1.25]. A high coefficient of risk-aversion reduced the hazard of relapse (0.96, 0.96-0.97). When adjusted for other predictors of relapse (age, gender, self-efficacy of quitting, health status, mood variation, past quitting experience, the use of nicotine replacement therapy, nicotine dependence), the hazard ratios of time discount rate and the coefficient of risk-aversion is 1.17 (95% CI: 1.10-1.24) and 0.98 (95% CI: 0.97-0.99), respectively.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Those who emphasize future rewards (time-patient preference) and those who give more importance to rewards that are certain (higher risk-aversion) were significantly more likely to continue to abstain from smoking.
authors.affiliation: Faculty of Economics, Konan University, Okamoto, Kobe, Japan.
authors.forename: Rei
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Goto
authors.forename: Yuko
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Takahashi
authors.forename: Shuzo
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Nishimura
authors.forename: Takanori
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Ida
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007564:Japan; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009042:Motivation; D012201:Reward; D012307:Risk Factors; D055502:Secondary Prevention; D016540:Smoking Cessation / Q000523:psychology*; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires; D013997:Time Factors; D055815:Young Adult