Endoscopic third ventriculostomy in the treatment of childhood hydrocephalus.
OBJECTIVE
To develop a model to predict the probability of endoscopic third ventriculostomy (ETV) success in the treatment for hydrocephalus on the basis of a child's individual characteristics.


METHODS
We analyzed 618 ETVs performed consecutively on children at 12 international institutions to identify predictors of ETV success at 6 months. A multivariable logistic regression model was developed on 70% of the dataset (training set) and validated on 30% of the dataset (validation set).


RESULTS
In the training set, 305/455 ETVs (67.0%) were successful. The regression model (containing patient age, cause of hydrocephalus, and previous cerebrospinal fluid shunt) demonstrated good fit (Hosmer-Lemeshow, P = .78) and discrimination (C statistic = 0.70). In the validation set, 105/163 ETVs (64.4%) were successful and the model maintained good fit (Hosmer-Lemeshow, P = .45), discrimination (C statistic = 0.68), and calibration (calibration slope = 0.88). A simplified ETV Success Score was devised that closely approximates the predicted probability of ETV success.


CONCLUSIONS
Children most likely to succeed with ETV can now be accurately identified and spared the long-term complications of CSF shunting.
Kulkarni
Abhaya V
AV
Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, Ontario, Canada. abhaya.kulkarni@sickkids.ca
Drake
James M
JM
Mallucci
Conor L
CL
Sgouros
Spyros
S
Roth
Jonathan
J
Constantini
Shlomi
S
D000367:Age Factors; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D006801:Humans; D006849:Hydrocephalus / Q000209:etiology / Q000601:surgery*; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D015233:Models, Statistical; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D044583:Neuroendoscopy; D017063:Outcome Assessment, Health Care / Q000379:methods; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D020542:Third Ventricle / Q000601:surgery*; D017287:Ventriculoperitoneal Shunt; D014696:Ventriculostomy / Q000379:methods*