title: Anthropometric predictors of incident type 2 diabetes mellitus in Iranian women.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Studies have shown a strong association between excess weight and risk of incident diabetes in Iranian women. Therefore, we investigated anthropometric indices in the prediction of diabetes in Iranian women.
  
  
  METHODS
  We examined 2801 females aged > or =20 years (mean [SD] age, 45.2 [12.9] years) in an Iranian urban population who were non-diabetic or had abnormal glucose tolerance at baseline. We estimated the predictive value of central obesity parameters (waist circumference [WC], waist-to-hip ratio [WHR], waist-to-height ratio [WHtR], body mass index [BMI]) in the prediction of diabetes. We classified each parameter in quartiles and compared the lowest with the highest quartile after adjusting for confounding variables, including age, hypertension, triglyceride levels, HDL-cholesterol, family history of diabetes, and abnormal glucose tolerance in a multivariate model. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves were used to determine the predictive power of each variable.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Over a median follow up of 3.5 years (11 months-6.3 years), 114 individuals developed diabetes (4.1%). The risk for developing diabetes was significantly higher for the highest quartile of BMI, WC, WHR and WHtR, respectively, compared to the lowest quartile, and the risk decreased but remained statistically significant when abnormal glucose tolerance was included in the multivariate model. WHtR had the highest area under the ROC curve.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  In Iranian women, BMI, WC, WHR, WHtR were predictive of development of type 2 diabetes, but WHtR was a better predictor than BMI.
authors.affiliation: Prevention of Metabolic Disorders Research Center, Research Institute for Endocrine Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran. fzhadaegh@endocrine.ac.ir
authors.forename: Farzad
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Hadaegh
authors.forename: Gita
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Shafiee
authors.forename: Fereidoun
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Azizi
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000886:Anthropometry / Q000379:methods*; D001827:Body Height; D015992:Body Mass Index; D001835:Body Weight; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000453:epidemiology*; D018450:Disease Progression; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007492:Iran / Q000453:epidemiology; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012372:ROC Curve; D012307:Risk Factors; D049629:Waist-Hip Ratio