title: The cocaine and heroin markets in the era of globalisation and drug reduction policies.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Despite the large volume of public effort devoted to restrain drug supply and the growing attention given to drug demand reduction policies, the use of cocaine and heroin remains steady. Furthermore, retail drug prices have fallen significantly in Europe and the US. This puzzling evidence leads us to develop a model aiming at systematically analysing illicit drug markets.
  
  
  METHODS
  We model the markets of cocaine and heroin from production to the final retail markets. One novelty of the analysis consists in characterising the retail market as a monopolistic competitive one. Then, upper level dealers have some market power in the retail market. This allows them to charge a markup and to earn extra profits. These extra profits attract newcomers so that profits tend to fall over time.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Theoretical model was used to analyse the effect of supply containment policies on the retail market, the producer market and the export-import business. This introduces the discussion of the impact of demand reduction policies on the high level traffickers' profit. Finally, globalisation enters in the model.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Law enforcement measures increase the risk premia received by the lower and higher level traffickers. Consequently, trafficking intermediation margins tend to increase. However, globalisation has the opposite effect. It lowers intermediation margins and, then, pushes retail prices down, thereby stimulating consumption. In doing so, globalisation offsets the effects of supply containment policies. Finally, we discuss how the effectiveness of supply containment policies can be enhanced by combining them with demand reduction policies.
authors.affiliation: European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction, R. Cruz de Santa Apolónia, 23-25, 1149-045 Lisboa, Portugal. Claudia.costa-storti@emcdda.europa.eu
authors.forename: Cláudia
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Costa Storti
authors.forename: Paul
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: De Grauwe
mesh_terms: D003042:Cocaine / Q000191:economics* / Q000600:supply & distribution; D019970:Cocaine-Related Disorders / Q000191:economics / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control; D003132:Commerce / Q000191:economics* / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence; D003415:Crime / Q000191:economics* / Q000517:prevention & control; D004335:Drug and Narcotic Control / Q000191:economics*; D033161:Government Regulation; D003932:Heroin / Q000191:economics* / Q000600:supply & distribution; D006556:Heroin Dependence / Q000191:economics / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control; D006801:Humans; D013287:Illicit Drugs / Q000191:economics* / Q000600:supply & distribution; D038622:Internationality / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence; D035846:Law Enforcement; D018803:Models, Economic; D011640:Public Policy / Q000191:economics*; D013997:Time Factors
chemical_list: D013287:Illicit Drugs; D003932:Heroin; D003042:Cocaine