title: Prediction model and prognostic index to estimate clinically relevant pelvic organ prolapse in a general female population.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Estimation on prevalence and distribution of pelvic organ prolapse (POP) signs in a general female population is difficult. We therefore developed and validated a prediction model and prognostic instrument.
  
  
  METHODS
  Questionnaires were sent to a general female population (45-85 years). A random sample underwent vaginal examination for POP (POPQ). A prediction model was developed using multivariate analysis and validated in a subgroup of participants.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Positive questionnaire-response rate was 46.8% (1,397 of 2,979). From the questionnaire group, 649 women were vaginally examined (46.5%). Prevalence of clinically relevant POP was 21%. Multivariate analysis demonstrated significantly higher odds ratios on the report of vaginal bulging, parity > or = 2 and a mother with POP. The receiver operating characteristic curve showed areas under the curve of 0.672 and 0.640.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The prevalence of POP at or beyond the hymen could be estimated in a general female population using our prediction model with 17 questions and our POP score chart with eight questions.
authors.affiliation: Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Erasmus MC, University Medical Centre, Rotterdam, The Netherlands. m.slieker@somt.nl
authors.forename: Marijke C Ph
authors.initials: MC
authors.lastname: Slieker-ten Hove
authors.forename: Annelies L
authors.initials: AL
authors.lastname: Pool-Goudzwaard
authors.forename: Marinus J C
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Eijkemans
authors.forename: Regine P M
authors.initials: RP
authors.lastname: Steegers-Theunissen
authors.forename: Curt W
authors.initials: CW
authors.lastname: Burger
authors.forename: Mark E
authors.initials: ME
authors.lastname: Vierhout
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008875:Middle Aged; D009426:Netherlands / Q000453:epidemiology; D016017:Odds Ratio; D010808:Physical Examination; D015995:Prevalence; D011379:Prognosis; D012372:ROC Curve; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires; D014596:Uterine Prolapse / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology