A cohort study to examine whether time and risk preference is related to smoking cessation success.
OBJECTIVE
To identify whether time and risk preference predicts relapse among smokers trying to quit.


METHODS
A cohort study of smokers who had recently started to quit. Time and risk preference parameters were estimated using a discrete choice experiment (DCE).


METHODS
A total of 689 smokers who began quitting smoking within the previous month.


METHODS
Time discount rate, coefficient of risk-aversion measured at study entry and duration of smoking cessation measured for 6 months.


RESULTS
In the unadjusted model, Cox's proportional hazard regression showed that those with a high time discount rate were more likely to relapse [hazard ratio: 1.18, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.11-1.25]. A high coefficient of risk-aversion reduced the hazard of relapse (0.96, 0.96-0.97). When adjusted for other predictors of relapse (age, gender, self-efficacy of quitting, health status, mood variation, past quitting experience, the use of nicotine replacement therapy, nicotine dependence), the hazard ratios of time discount rate and the coefficient of risk-aversion is 1.17 (95% CI: 1.10-1.24) and 0.98 (95% CI: 0.97-0.99), respectively.


CONCLUSIONS
Those who emphasize future rewards (time-patient preference) and those who give more importance to rewards that are certain (higher risk-aversion) were significantly more likely to continue to abstain from smoking.
Goto
Rei
R
Faculty of Economics, Konan University, Okamoto, Kobe, Japan.
Takahashi
Yuko
Y
Nishimura
Shuzo
S
Ida
Takanori
T
D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007564:Japan; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009042:Motivation; D012201:Reward; D012307:Risk Factors; D055502:Secondary Prevention; D016540:Smoking Cessation / Q000523:psychology*; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires; D013997:Time Factors; D055815:Young Adult