title: CD4+ T-cell percentage is an independent predictor of clinical progression in AIDS-free antiretroviral-naive patients with CD4+ T-cell counts >200 cells/mm3.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The aim of this study was to evaluate the clinical prognostic value of the CD4+ T-cell percentage (%CD4), the CD4+/CD8+ T-cell ratio or the CD8+ T-cell count, in addition to the CD4+ T-cell count and viral load (VL) in antiretroviral-naive HIV-infected patients with CD4+ T-cell counts >200 cells/mm(3).
  
  
  METHODS
  Antiretroviral-naive patients (n=9,740) who were AIDS-free and had a CD4+ T-cell count >200 cells/mm(3) at their first visit after January 1997 were followed-up until treatment initiation or clinical progression (mean follow-up 17 months and 13,660 person-years). Poisson regression was used for statistical analyses.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Progression to AIDS-defining events (ADEs), serious ADEs and death occurred in 228 patients (crude rate 1.69 per 100 person-years), 105 patients (0.77 per 100 person-years) and 67 patients (0.49 per 100 person-years), respectively. Regarding progression to ADE, the data fit was improved when the model also included the %CD4 (Akaike's information criteria [AIC] 2,049) and, to a lesser extent, the CD4+/CD8+ T-cell ratio (AIC 2,053), in addition to CD4+ T-cell count and VL (AIC 2,056). After adjustment for VL and baseline characteristics, patients with CD4+ T-cell counts of 350-500 cells/mm(3) and %CD4<15% had an estimated incidence of ADE of 3 per 100 person-years, similar to that in patients with CD4+ T-cell counts of 200-350 cells/mm(3) and %CD4>15%. The %CD4 was also significantly associated with the risk of serious ADE. By contrast, %CD4, CD4+/CD8+ T-cell ratio or CD8+ T-cell count had no additional prognostic value for the risk of death.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  In antiretroviral-naive HIV-infected patients with CD4+ T-cell counts >200 cells/mm(3), the %CD4 was predictive of the risk of clinical progression independently of CD4+ T-cell count and VL.
authors.affiliation: INSERM U943, Paris, France. mguiguet@ccde.chups.jussieu.fr
authors.forename: Marguerite
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Guiguet
authors.forename: Eric
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Kendjo
authors.forename: Guislaine
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Carcelain
authors.forename: Sophie
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Abgrall
authors.forename: Murielle
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Mary-Krause
authors.forename: Pierre
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Tattevin
authors.forename: Yazdan
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Yazdanpanah
authors.forename: Dominique
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Costagliola
authors.forename: Xavier
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Duval
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D018791:CD4 Lymphocyte Count; D015496:CD4-Positive T-Lymphocytes / Q000276:immunology*; D018450:Disease Progression; D005260:Female; D005602:France / Q000453:epidemiology; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000188:drug therapy / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000276:immunology*; D015497:HIV-1; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests