The effect of time distribution shape on a complex epidemic model.
In elaborating a model of the progress of an epidemic, it is necessary to make assumptions about the distributions of latency times and infectious times. In many models, the often implicit assumption is that these times are independent and exponentially distributed. We explore the effects of altering the distribution of latency and infectious times in a complex epidemic model with regional divisions connected by a travel intensity matrix. We show a delay in spread with more realistic latency times. More realistic infectiousness times lead to faster epidemics. The effects are similar but accentuated when compared to a purely homogeneous mixing model.
Camitz
Martin
M
Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Inistitute, Stockholm, Sweden. martin.camitz@gmail.com
Svensson
Ake
A
D003141:Communicable Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D055641:Mathematical Concepts; D008954:Models, Biological; D015233:Models, Statistical; D013269:Stochastic Processes; D013997:Time Factors; D014195:Travel