title: Looking forward and backward in records for risks among homicidal youth.
abstract: To identify risks for commission of homicide, 26 convicted Homicidal Youth (M age = 14.9 yr., SD = 1.4; n = 26; 1 girl, 25 boys) were matched with 26 Nonviolent Delinquents and 26 clinic-referred Controls. Youth were tracked backward 8 years (M = 7.7 yr., SD = 15) and forward 3 years (M = 3.1 yr., SD = 1.2) in records. Data analysis was Shao's bootstrapped logistic regression yielding area under the curve (AUC) and odds ratios (OR). Predictors of homicide were poorer executive function (OR = 7.04e+40), violent family (OR = 4.01e-16), and alcohol abuse (OR = 7.33e-17; AUC = .97, 95% CI = .77-.99). From earlier studies, 101 Homicidal Youth and their Controls were reanalyzed similarly. Predictors were poorer executive function (OR = 6.51), lower social maturity (OR = 0.28), weapon possession (OR = 26.10), and gang membership (OR = 4.14; AUC = .98, 95% CI = .96-.99). Groups were combined, i.e., 26 and 101 Homicidal; 127 Homicidal Youth (7 girls, 120 boys) and their matched Controls were tracked in records. The predictor was poorer executive function (OR = 3.34e-21; AUC = .98, 95% CI = .96-.97). When 127 Homicidal Youth were compared with 127 matched Nonviolent Delinquents, predictors were poorer executive function (OR = 2.83e-02), weapon possession (OR = 1.63e-10), lower social maturity (OR = 1.15), and use of special education services (OR = .94; AUC = .94, 95% CI = .37-.99).
authors.affiliation: Juvenile Division, Circuit Court of Cook County, Illinois, USA. drzagar@yahoo.com
authors.forename: Robert John
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: Zagar
authors.forename: Kenneth G
authors.initials: KG
authors.lastname: Busch
authors.forename: William M
authors.initials: WM
authors.lastname: Grove
authors.forename: John Russell
authors.initials: JR
authors.lastname: Hughes
authors.forename: Jack
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Arbit
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000437:Alcoholism / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000523:psychology; D019540:Area Under Curve; D005260:Female; D005555:Forensic Psychiatry; D006708:Homicide / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence / Q000523:psychology / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D007604:Juvenile Delinquency / Q000523:psychology / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D016017:Odds Ratio; D012307:Risk Factors