title: Looking forward in records of young adults convicted of sexual homicide, rape, or molestation as youth: risks for reoffending.
abstract: To assess the risks predicting reoffense, 223 Rapists (M age = 14.2 yr., SD = 1.5; 25 girls, 198 boys) were matched with 223 Nonviolent Delinquents; risks were analyzed using logistic regression. The one predictor was prior court contacts (OR = 1.55e+12; AUC = .99, 95% CI = .98-.99). 223 Molesters were similarly matched with 223 Nonviolent Delinquents; this comparison yielded three predictors: previous court contacts (OR = 4.55e+23), poorer executive function (OR = 2.01), and lower social maturity (OR = .97; AUC = .98, 95% CI = .97-.99). Records for all cases (now M age = 24.2 yr., SD = 1.4) were reviewed forward 10 years and youth were classified into groups: Sexual Homicidal (1%, n = 7), Delinquent Rapists Later Adult Rapists (11%, n = 73), Delinquent Rapists (21%, n = 144), Delinquent Molesters Later Adult Molesters (10%, n = 69), Delinquent Molesters (23%, n = 153), Nonviolent Delinquent Later Nonviolent Adult Criminals (7%, n = 45), and Nonviolent Delinquents (27%, n = 178). Comparison of Sexual Homicidal cases (n = 7) with their matched Controls (n = 7) yielded one predictor, poorer executive function (AUC = .89, 95% CI = .71-.93). When Sexual Homicidal cases were matched with Nonviolent Delinquents, predictors were low social maturity and prior court contacts (AUC = .81, 95% CI = .64-.93).
authors.affiliation: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, USA.
authors.forename: Kenneth G
authors.initials: KG
authors.lastname: Busch
authors.forename: Robert John
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: Zagar
authors.forename: William M
authors.initials: WM
authors.lastname: Grove
authors.forename: John Russell
authors.initials: JR
authors.lastname: Hughes
authors.forename: Jack
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Arbit
authors.forename: Robert E
authors.initials: RE
authors.lastname: Bussell
authors.forename: Boris
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Bartikowski
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D002650:Child Abuse, Sexual / Q000523:psychology / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D005260:Female; D005555:Forensic Psychiatry; D006708:Homicide / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence* / Q000523:psychology / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D010378:Pedophilia / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000523:psychology; D011329:Prisoners / Q000523:psychology / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D011902:Rape / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence* / Q000523:psychology / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D012008:Recurrence; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D012742:Sex Offenses / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence* / Q000523:psychology / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D014754:Violence / Q000523:psychology / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D055815:Young Adult