title: A prediction rule for disease outcome in patients with undifferentiated arthritis using magnetic resonance imaging of the wrists and finger joints and serologic autoantibodies.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To evaluate whether magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of the wrists and finger joints and an analysis of serologic autoantibodies are clinically meaningful for the subsequent development of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in patients with undifferentiated arthritis (UA).
  
  
  METHODS
  A total of 129 patients with UA, a disease status formally confirmed by a rheumatologist over a period of at least 1 year, were included. Gadolinium-diethylenetriamine-enhanced MRI of both wrists and finger joints and serologic variables were examined upon admission to our Early Arthritis Clinic at Nagasaki University. After a prospective followup of 1 year, a predictive value for the development of RA was determined for each patient.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The subjects were evaluated for their positive or negative status with respect to 3 objective measures at study entry: anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide (anti-CCP) antibodies and/or IgM-rheumatoid factor, MRI-proven symmetric synovitis, and MRI-proven bone edema and/or bone erosion. The patients who were positive for at least 2 of these measures progressed to RA at 1 year with a 79.7% positive predictive value (PPV), 63.0% negative predictive value, 75.9% specificity, 68.0% sensitivity, and 71.3% accuracy. Furthermore, in 22 UA patients positive for both anti-CCP antibodies and MRI-proven bone edema who were considered to have progressed to RA at 1 year, the PPV was increased to 100%. A close correlation was found between the present rule and that established in the Leiden Early Arthritis Cohort.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  MRI-proven early joint damage in conjunction with serologic autoantibodies is efficient in predicting progression from UA to RA. This method can be used to identify patients who would benefit from early treatment with disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs.
authors.affiliation: Nagasaki University, 1-7-1 Sakamoto, Nagasaki 852-8501, Japan.
authors.forename: Mami
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Tamai
authors.forename: Atsushi
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Kawakami
authors.forename: Masataka
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Uetani
authors.forename: Shoichiro
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Takao
authors.forename: Kazuhiko
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Arima
authors.forename: Naoki
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Iwamoto
authors.forename: Keita
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Fujikawa
authors.forename: Toshiyuki
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Aramaki
authors.forename: Shin-Ya
authors.initials: SY
authors.lastname: Kawashiri
authors.forename: Kunihiro
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Ichinose
authors.forename: Makoto
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Kamachi
authors.forename: Hideki
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Nakamura
authors.forename: Tomoki
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Origuchi
authors.forename: Hiroaki
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Ida
authors.forename: Kiyoshi
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Aoyagi
authors.forename: Katsumi
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Eguchi
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001168:Arthritis / Q000097:blood / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000276:immunology; D005260:Female; D005384:Finger Joint / Q000473:pathology*; D006801:Humans; D007075:Immunoglobulin M / Q000097:blood*; D008279:Magnetic Resonance Imaging / Q000379:methods*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D010456:Peptides, Cyclic / Q000276:immunology*; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D012217:Rheumatoid Factor / Q000097:blood*; D016896:Treatment Outcome; D014955:Wrist Joint / Q000473:pathology*; D055815:Young Adult
chemical_list: D007075:Immunoglobulin M; D010456:Peptides, Cyclic; C487763:cyclic citrullinated peptide; D012217:Rheumatoid Factor