title: Implications of limiting CO2 concentrations for land use and energy.
abstract: Limiting atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations to low levels requires strategies to manage anthropogenic carbon emissions from terrestrial systems as well as fossil fuel and industrial sources. We explore the implications of fully integrating terrestrial systems and the energy system into a comprehensive mitigation regime that limits atmospheric CO2 concentrations. We find that this comprehensive approach lowers the cost of meeting environmental goals but also carries with it profound implications for agriculture: Unmanaged ecosystems and forests expand, and food crop and livestock prices rise. Finally, we find that future improvement in food crop productivity directly affects land-use change emissions, making the technology for growing crops potentially important for limiting atmospheric CO2 concentrations.
authors.affiliation: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute at the University of Maryland-College Park, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, MD 20740, USA.
authors.forename: Marshall
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Wise
authors.forename: Katherine
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Calvin
authors.forename: Allison
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Thomson
authors.forename: Leon
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Clarke
authors.forename: Benjamin
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Bond-Lamberty
authors.forename: Ronald
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Sands
authors.forename: Steven J
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: Smith
authors.forename: Anthony
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Janetos
authors.forename: James
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Edmonds
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture; D001272:Atmosphere / Q000737:chemistry*; D018533:Biomass; D002245:Carbon Dioxide; D003132:Commerce; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D018556:Crops, Agricultural / Q000191:economics / Q000254:growth & development; D017753:Ecosystem; D004736:Energy-Generating Resources; D005579:Fossil Fuels; D007221:Industry; D008962:Models, Theoretical
chemical_list: D005579:Fossil Fuels; D002245:Carbon Dioxide