Can violent (re)offense be predicted? Review of the role of the clinician and use of actuarial tests in light of new data.
This article is an evaluation of established actuarial probation-parole tests in light of new data on violent and homicidal behavior. Probation-parole tests originally were developed by observing risks related with recidivism or return to court after release (i.e., the "danger" of releasing an individual) by following offenders in court records for up to 10 years. Commonly used probation-parole tests together comprise 82 distinct items related to characteristics of the offender: home, school, peers, job, family, individual-medical, community, and court contacts. The risks for violence and homicide found by Zagar, et al. were compared with prior meta-analyses of risks with the criterion of violent delinquency. Bootstrapped logistic regressions in Zagar and colleagues' new data yielded highly accurate predictions of violence, showing that improved methods and sampling can lead to still higher accuracy than had been achieved by established probation-parole tests. A general discussion of the usefulness of actuarial tests and answers to challenges of their validity for decision making are provided.
Zagar
Robert John
RJ
Juvenile Division, Circuit Court of Cook County, Illinois, USA. drzagar@yahoo.com
Busch
Kenneth G
KG
Grove
William M
WM
Hughes
John Russell
JR
D000206:Actuarial Analysis; D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D003415:Crime / Q000523:psychology / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D005260:Female; D005555:Forensic Psychiatry / Q000379:methods* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006708:Homicide / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence / Q000523:psychology / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D007603:Jurisprudence; D007604:Juvenile Delinquency; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D015201:Meta-Analysis as Topic; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D012742:Sex Offenses / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence / Q000523:psychology / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D014754:Violence / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence / Q000523:psychology / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*