Introduction to a series of studies on abused, delinquent, violent, and homicidal youth and adults.
To study the risks of abuse and homicide, 5 studies of unique groups of abused, delinquent, violent, homicidal, and criminal cases representing ages from infancy to adulthood are presented with areas (AUCs) under the receiver operating curves (ROCs) and odds ratios (OR) for commission of homicide. Delinquent samples compared show changes in risks since the early 1900s. Probation-parole tests contrasted reformed offenders with recidivists. Current data substantively extended examination of risks to infants and to female cases, increasing accuracy of prediction from the previous best AUCs = 0.69-0.76 to AUCs = 0.81-0.98. [corrected] Empirically supported treatments may reduce onset of delinquency or reoffense beyond 10 to 40% if targeted to developmental risks among at-risk youth and within high-homicide urban areas. Parental costs of raising an abused, delinquent, or violent youth from birth to 17 years were double those of controls and, for a youth who committed murder, 23 times higher. Use of risk-based screening and empirical treatments are legal under U.S., British, and European constitutions and the U.N. Charter.
Zagar
Robert John
RJ
Juvenile Division, Circuit Court of Cook County, Chicago, Illinois, USA. drzagar@yahoo.com
Zagar
Agata Karolina
AK
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D019540:Area Under Curve; D002649:Child Abuse / Q000191:economics / Q000523:psychology / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D003365:Costs and Cost Analysis; D005260:Female; D006708:Homicide / Q000523:psychology / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D007604:Juvenile Delinquency / Q000191:economics / Q000523:psychology / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D008297:Male; D016017:Odds Ratio; D010290:Parents / Q000523:psychology; D012372:ROC Curve; D012307:Risk Factors; D019966:Substance-Related Disorders / Q000191:economics / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000523:psychology; D014754:Violence / Q000191:economics / Q000523:psychology / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*