[Canine population dynamics: the potential effect of sterilization campaigns].
OBJECTIVE
To analyze, through mathematical modeling, the potential ability of sterilization campaigns to reduce the population density of pet dogs.


METHODS
Mathematical models were constructed to simulate the canine population dynamics and project the results of control strategies based on several sterilization rates.


RESULTS
Even at high sterilization rates (for example, 0.80 year(-1)), it would take approximately 5 years to reduce density by 20%. Even so, other sources of population growth, such as the importing of dogs from other geographic areas, could outweigh the effects of a sterilization program.


CONCLUSIONS
A program's effectiveness is contingent upon not only on the sterilization rate, but also the rate of population growth. Sterilization campaigns may potentially reduce population density, but this reduction may not be immediately evident.
Amaku
Marcos
M
Universidade de São Paulo, Faculdade de Medicina Veterinária e Zootecnia, São Paulo, SP, Brasil. amaku@usp.br
Dias
Ricardo Augusto
RA
Ferreira
Fernando
F
D000818:Animals; D004285:Dogs; D006293:Health Promotion; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011634:Public Health; D013245:Sterilization, Reproductive / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*