title: The value of procalcitonin at predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis and development of infected pancreatic necrosis: systematic review.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Many studies have evaluated serum levels of procalcitonin (PCT) as a predictor in the development of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) and infected pancreatic necrosis (IPN). This study assesses the value of PCT as a marker of development of SAP and IPN.
  
  
  METHODS
  Medline, Web of Science, the Cochrane clinical trials register, and international conference proceedings were searched systematically for prospective studies, which evaluated the usefulness of PCT as a marker of SAP and IPN. The sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostic odds ratios (DORs) were calculated for each study, and the study quality and heterogeneity among the studies were evaluated.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Twenty-four of 59 studies identified were included in data extraction. The sensitivity and specificity of PCT for development of SAP were 0.72 and 0.86, respectively (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.87; DOR = 14.9; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 5.6-39.8), albeit with a significant degree of heterogeneity (Q = 28.56, P < .01). The sensitivity and specificity of PCT for prediction of infected pancreatic necrosis were 0.80 and 0.91 (AUC = 0.91; DOR = 28.3; 95% CI = 13.8-58.3) with no significant heterogeneity (Q = 7.83, P = .18). No significant heterogeneity was observed among the studies when only higher quality studies (AUC = 0.91; DOR = 30.7; 95% CI = 10.7-87.8) or studies that used a cutoff PCT level >0.5 ng/mL (AUC = 0.88, 32.8; 95% CI = 10.1-106.6) were included.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Serum measurements of PCT may be valuable in predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis and the risk of developing infected pancreatic necrosis.
authors.affiliation: Department of Clinical and Surgical Sciences (Surgery), University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Reza
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Mofidi
authors.forename: Stuart A
authors.initials: SA
authors.lastname: Suttie
authors.forename: Pradeep V
authors.initials: PV
authors.lastname: Patil
authors.forename: Simon
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Ogston
authors.forename: Rowan W
authors.initials: RW
authors.lastname: Parks
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D015415:Biomarkers / Q000097:blood; D002116:Calcitonin / Q000097:blood*; D015740:Calcitonin Gene-Related Peptide; D006801:Humans; D008875:Middle Aged; D010195:Pancreatitis / Q000097:blood* / Q000175:diagnosis; D019283:Pancreatitis, Acute Necrotizing / Q000097:blood* / Q000175:diagnosis; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011498:Protein Precursors / Q000097:blood*; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D055815:Young Adult
chemical_list: D015415:Biomarkers; C000606589:CALCA protein, human; D011498:Protein Precursors; D002116:Calcitonin; D015740:Calcitonin Gene-Related Peptide