title: Delta-glycated hemoglobin: a novel independent risk factor for cardiovascular events in patients without diabetes mellitus.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  A single measurement of glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) is a weak predictor for cardiovascular events in patients without Type 2 diabetes mellitus. We hypothesized that dynamic changes in HbA1c (Delta-HbA1c) would better predict cardiovascular outcome than a single value.
  
  
  METHODS
  In 99 consecutive patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD) and without diabetes mellitus who were seen twice in our outpatient clinic (4-6 months apart) in 1998, Delta-HbA1c (follow-up HbA1c--baseline HbA1c) was assessed. Between August and September 2007 (mean observation period 9.1 yr), patients and their physicians were contacted by telephone to evaluate the incidence of cardiovascular endpoints. The combined primary endpoint of our study was defined as the incidence of myocardial infarction, stroke or death from any cause. The endpoints were validated by chart review.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Multivariate analysis demonstrated that the change of HbA1c between first and second examination in 1998 was the most powerful parameter for prediction of the combined primary endpoint in the next 9 yr. The hazard ratio was 5.03 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.4-17.9] for any increase in HbA1c and 1.99 (95%CI 1.3-3.0) for an HbA1c increase of 0.3%. In addition, Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed a significant association between endpoint-free survival and dynamic changes in HbA1c.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Hence, changes in the glucometabolic milieu within 4-6 months calculated by the difference of two values of HbA1c affect the long-term prognosis of patients with CAD but without diabetes mellitus.
authors.affiliation: Clinic III for Internal Medicine, Cologne Heart Centre, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany. Holger.Diedrichs@uni-koeln.de
authors.forename: H
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Diedrichs
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Pfister
authors.forename: Z
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Clement
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Hagemeister
authors.forename: C A
authors.initials: CA
authors.lastname: Schneider
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000097:blood* / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000503:physiopathology; D003324:Coronary Artery Disease / Q000097:blood / Q000175:diagnosis; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000097:blood*; D006442:Glycated Hemoglobin / Q000378:metabolism*; D006801:Humans; D007407:Interviews as Topic; D053208:Kaplan-Meier Estimate; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D011379:Prognosis; D012307:Risk Factors
chemical_list: D006442:Glycated Hemoglobin