title: Predicting the risk of soybean rust in Minnesota based on an integrated atmospheric model.
abstract: To minimize crop loss by assisting in timely disease management and reducing fungicide use, an integrated atmospheric model was developed and tested for predicting the risk of occurrence of soybean rust in Minnesota. The model includes a long-range atmospheric spore transport and deposition module coupled to a leaf wetness module. The latter is required for spore germination and infection. Predictions are made on a daily basis for up to 7 days in advance using forecast data from the United States National Weather Service. Complementing the transport and leaf wetness modules, bulk (wet plus dry) atmospheric deposition samples from Minnesota were examined for soybean rust spores using a specific DNA test and sequence analysis. Overall, the risk prediction worked satisfactorily within the bounds of the uncertainty associated with the use of modeled 7-day weather forecasts, with more than 65% agreement between the model forecast and the DNA test results. The daily predictions are available as an advisory to the user community through the University of Minnesota Extension. However, users must take the actual decision to implement the disease management strategy.
authors.affiliation: Illinois State Water Survey, Institute of Natural Resource Sustainability, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL 61820, USA. ztao@illinois.edu
authors.forename: Zhining
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Tao
authors.forename: Dean
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Malvick
authors.forename: Roger
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Claybrooke
authors.forename: Crystal
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Floyd
authors.forename: Carl J
authors.initials: CJ
authors.lastname: Bernacchi
authors.forename: Greg
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Spoden
authors.forename: James
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Kurle
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Gay
authors.forename: Van
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Bowersox
authors.forename: Sagar
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Krupa
mesh_terms: D000391:Air Microbiology; D001272:Atmosphere / Q000032:analysis*; D001487:Basidiomycota / Q000302:isolation & purification / Q000502:physiology*; D003198:Computer Simulation; D008910:Minnesota; D008954:Models, Biological; D010935:Plant Diseases / Q000382:microbiology* / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods; D012307:Risk Factors; D013025:Glycine max / Q000382:microbiology* / Q000502:physiology*; D018511:Systems Integration