Modelling of the influenza A(H1N1)v outbreak in Mexico City, April-May 2009, with control sanitary measures.
We use a time dependent modification of the Kermack and McKendrick model to study the evolution of the influenza A(H1N1)v epidemic reported in the Mexico City area under the control measures used during April and May 2009. The model illustrates how the sanitary measures postponed the peak of the epidemic and decreased its intensity. It provides quantitative predictions on the effect of relaxing the sanitary measures after a period of control. We show how the sanitary measures reduced the maximal prevalence of the infected population from 10% to less than 6% of the total population. We also show how the model predicts the time of maximal prevalence and explains the effect of the control measures.
Cruz-Pacheco
G
G
Department of Mathematics and Mechanics-IIMAS-FENOMEC, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico. cruz@mym.iimas.unam.mx
Duran
L
L
Esteva
L
L
Minzoni
Aa
A
Lopez-Cervantes
M
M
Panayotaros
P
P
Ahued Ortega
A
A
Villasenor Ruiz
I
I
D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D053118:Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control*; D008800:Mexico; D011159:Population Surveillance; D011174:Portugal / Q000453:epidemiology; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D012307:Risk Factors; D014505:Urban Population / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*