National mortality rates from chronic liver disease and consumption of alcohol and pig meat.
A correlation between national pig-meat consumption and mortality rates from chronic liver disease (CLD) across developed countries was reported in 1985. One possible mechanism explaining this may be hepatitis E infection spread via pig meat. We aimed to re-examine the original association in more recent international data. Regression models were used to estimate associations between national pig-meat consumption and CLD mortality, adjusting for confounders. Data on CLD mortality, alcohol consumption, hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) seroprevalence for 18 developed countries (1990-2000) were obtained from WHO databases. Data on national pig-meat and beef consumption were obtained from the UN database. Univariate regression showed that alcohol and pig-meat consumption were associated with mortality from CLD, but beef consumption, HBV and HCV seroprevalence were not. A 1 litre per capita increase in alcohol consumption was associated with an increase in mortality from CLD in excess of 1.6 deaths/100,000 population. A 10 kg higher national annual average per capita consumption of pork meat was associated with an increase in mortality from CLD of between 4 and 5 deaths/100,000 population. Multivariate regression showed that alcohol, pig-meat consumption and HBV seroprevalence were independently associated with mortality from CLD, but HCV seroprevalence was not. Pig-meat consumption remained independently associated with mortality from CLD in developed countries in the 1990-2000 period. Further work is needed to establish the mechanism.
Dalton
H R
HR
Peninsula College of Medicine and Dentistry, Royal Cornwall Hospital, Truro, UK. harry.dalton@rcht.cornwall.nhs.uk
Bendall
R P
RP
Pritchard
C
C
Henley
W
W
Melzer
D
D
D000428:Alcohol Drinking / Q000009:adverse effects* / Q000453:epidemiology; D000818:Animals; D002417:Cattle; D002908:Chronic Disease; D019049:Developed Countries / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D005247:Feeding Behavior; D006801:Humans; D008107:Liver Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology / Q000401:mortality*; D008460:Meat; D013552:Swine; D013997:Time Factors