Predicted national productivity implications of calorie and sodium reductions in the American diet.
OBJECTIVE
To model the potential long-term national productivity benefits from reduced daily intake of calories and sodium.


METHODS
Simulation based on secondary data analysis; quantitative research. Measures include absenteeism, presenteeism, disability, and premature mortality under various hypothetical dietary changes.


METHODS
United States.


METHODS
Two hundred twenty-five million adults.


METHODS
Findings come from a Nutrition Impact Model that combines information from national surveys, peer-reviewed studies, and government reports.


METHODS
We compare current estimates of national productivity loss associated with overweight, obesity, and hypertension to estimates for hypothetical scenarios in which national prevalence of these risk factors is lower. Using the simulation model, we illustrate how modest dietary change can achieve lower national prevalence of excess weight and hypertension.


RESULTS
We estimate that permanent 100-kcal reductions in daily intake among the overweight/obese would eliminate approximately 71.2 million cases of overweight/obesity. In the long term, this could increase national productivity by $45.7 billion annually. Long-term sodium reductions of 400 mg in those with uncontrolled hypertension would eliminate about 1.5 million cases, potentially increasing productivity by $2.5 billion annually. More aggressive diet changes of 500 kcal and 1100 mg of sodium reductions yield potential productivity benefits of $133.3 and $5.8 billion, respectively.


CONCLUSIONS
The potential long-term benefit of reduced calories and sodium, combining medical cost savings with productivity increases, ranges from $108.5 billion for moderate reductions to $255.6 billion for aggressive reductions. These findings help inform public health policy and the business case for improving diet. (AmJ Health Promot 2009;23[6]:423-430.)
Dall
Timothy M
TM
The Lewin Group, 3130 Fairview Park Dr, Suite 800, Falls Church, VA 22042, USA. Tim.dall@lewin.com
Fulgoni
Victor L
VL
Zhang
Yiduo
Y
Reimers
Kristin J
KJ
Packard
Patricia T
PT
Astwood
James D
JD
D000041:Absenteeism; D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D001835:Body Weight; D031204:Caloric Restriction / Q000191:economics*; D004032:Diet / Q000191:economics*; D006233:Persons with Disabilities / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D017598:Efficiency, Organizational / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D006973:Hypertension / Q000150:complications / Q000191:economics / Q000517:prevention & control; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D017059:Models, Econometric; D009026:Mortality / Q000639:trends; D012737:Sex Factors; D012982:Sodium, Dietary / Q000191:economics*; D014481:United States
D012982:Sodium, Dietary