title: Predictors of outcome after exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The outcome after hospitalization for an exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is unfavorable and uncertainty exists about factors predicting short and long-term prognosis.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To identify clinical predictors of length of hospital stay (LOS) and three-year mortality after COPD exacerbations requiring hospitalization.
  
  
  METHODS
  Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data.
  
  
  METHODS
  All consecutive patients hospitalized with COPD exacerbation were enrolled. Disease severity was estimated by FEV(1,) body mass index (BMI), Medical Research Council (MRC) chronic dyspnoea scale, previous hospitalizations, need for long-term oxygen treatment (LTOT), arterial oxygen and carbon dioxide partial pressures (PaO(2) and PaCO(2)), pH and respiratory rate. Outcome was assessed by LOS and three-year mortality.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Out of 81 patients enrolled, three-year mortality data were available for 61. LOS was related to BMI, MRC scale and respiratory rate. Three-year mortality was related to FEV(1), BMI, MRC scale, LTOT, and PaCO(2). Multiple logistic regression analysis demonstrated that MRC scale was the only independent determinant of LOS, [p = 0.001, odds ratio (OR) 7.67 (95% CI 2.50-23.41)], whereas MRC scale and BMI predicted three-year mortality, [p = 0.001, OR 8.28 (95% CI 2.25-30.47) and p = 0.006, OR 6.91 (95% CI 1.74-27.48), respectively]. Cox regression analysis demonstrated identical results. Using receiver-operator-optimized thresholds for these variables (MRC > 2 and BMI < 25 kg/m(2)), we propose a prediction model that accurately determines three-year mortality risk.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  In this study, MRC scale and BMI predicted outcome after COPD hospitalization. Pending further validation, this predictive model may contribute to identify patients with poor outcome even when spirometric data are unavailable.
authors: Department of Critical Care and Pulmonary Services, General Hospital Evangelismos, School of Medicine, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, 3 Ploutarhou Str, 10675 Athens, Greece. agret@tee.gr
authors: Angeliki M
authors: AM
authors: Tsimogianni
authors: Spyros A
authors: SA
authors: Papiris
authors: Georgios T
authors: GT
authors: Stathopoulos
authors: Effrosyni D
authors: ED
authors: Manali
authors: Charis
authors: C
authors: Roussos
authors: Anastasia
authors: A
authors: Kotanidou
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D006760:Hospitalization / Q000639:trends; D006801:Humans; D007902:Length of Stay / Q000639:trends; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011446:Prospective Studies; D029424:Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive / Q000401:mortality* / Q000628:therapy*; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D015996:Survival Rate / Q000639:trends; D013997:Time Factors; D016896:Treatment Outcome