Potential health benefits and medical cost savings from calorie, sodium, and saturated fat reductions in the American diet.
OBJECTIVE
Model the potential national health benefits and medical savings from reduced daily intake of calories, sodium, and saturated fat among the U.S. adult population.


METHODS
Simulation based on secondary data analysis; quantitative research. Measures include the prevalence of overweight/obesity, uncontrolled hypertension, elevated cholesterol, and related chronic conditions under various hypothetical dietary changes.


METHODS
United States.


METHODS
Two hundred twenty-four million adults.


METHODS
Findings come from a Nutrition Impact Model that combines information from national surveys, peer-reviewed studies, and government reports.


METHODS
The simulation model predicts disease prevalence and medical expenditures under hypothetical dietary change scenarios.


RESULTS
We estimate that permanent 100-kcal reductions in daily intake would eliminate approximately 71.2 million cases of overweight/obesity and save $58 billion annually. Long-term sodium intake reductions of 400 mg/d in those with uncontrolled hypertension would eliminate about 1.5 million cases, saving $2.3 billion annually. Decreasing 5 g/d of saturated fat intake in those with elevated cholesterol would eliminate 3.9 million cases, saving $2.0 billion annually.


CONCLUSIONS
Modest to aggressive changes in diet can improve health and reduce annual national medical expenditures by $60 billion to $120 billion. One use of the model is to estimate the impact of dietary change related to setting public health priorities for dietary guidance. The findings here argue that emphasis on reduction in caloric intake should be the highest priority.
Dall
Timothy M
TM
The Lewin Group, 3130 Fairview Park Dr, Suite 800, Falls Church, VA 22042, USA. Tim.dall@lewin.com
Fulgoni
Victor L
VL
Zhang
Yiduo
Y
Reimers
Kristin J
KJ
Packard
Patricia T
PT
Astwood
James D
JD
D031204:Caloric Restriction / Q000191:economics*; D004032:Diet / Q000191:economics*; D004041:Dietary Fats / Q000191:economics*; D006291:Health Policy; D006801:Humans; D006937:Hypercholesterolemia / Q000150:complications / Q000191:economics / Q000517:prevention & control; D006973:Hypertension / Q000150:complications / Q000191:economics / Q000517:prevention & control; D017059:Models, Econometric; D050177:Overweight / Q000150:complications / Q000191:economics / Q000517:prevention & control; D012307:Risk Factors; D012982:Sodium, Dietary / Q000191:economics*; D014481:United States
D004041:Dietary Fats; D012982:Sodium, Dietary