title: Derivation of a prognostic score for identifying critically ill patients in an emergency department resuscitation room.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Several prognostic scores exist for critically ill patients, including APACHE II, Revised Trauma Score (RTS), Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (REMS) and Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS). However, there is no widely used score specifically designed to predict the likelihood of early intensive care unit (ICU) admission or death in undifferentiated emergency department (ED) resuscitation room patients. We aimed to derive such a score and compare it with other similar scores.
  
  
  METHODS
  This was a single centre study of consecutive adult resuscitation room patients over one month. Physiological and blood test variables were compared according to the composite primary outcome: admission to ICU or death within 7 days of attendance. Multivariate logistic regression was used to derive a prediction score which was compared with other scores using ROC (receiver operating characteristic) analysis.
  
  
  RESULTS
  330 patients were included in the study, of whom 77 were admitted to ICU or died within 7 days. A prediction score was derived using the following parameters: systolic blood pressure; Glasgow coma score; blood glucose; bicarbonate; white cell count; and a history of metastates. This score significantly out-performed APACHE II, RTS, REMS and MEWS with an area under the ROC curve of 0.909 (95% CI 0.872-0.938).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The Prince of Wales Emergency Department Score (PEDS) is a new prognostic score to predict the likelihood of early ICU admission or death in undifferentiated resuscitation room patients. Further studies are needed to validate and refine this potentially useful tool.
authors.affiliation: Accident and Emergency Medicine Academic Unit, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong.
authors.forename: Giles N
authors.initials: GN
authors.lastname: Cattermole
authors.forename: S K Paulina
authors.initials: SK
authors.lastname: Mak
authors.forename: C H Elizabeth
authors.initials: CH
authors.lastname: Liow
authors.forename: Man Fung
authors.initials: MF
authors.lastname: Ho
authors.forename: Kin Yee Grace
authors.initials: KY
authors.lastname: Hung
authors.forename: Kai Man
authors.initials: KM
authors.lastname: Keung
authors.forename: Hoi Man
authors.initials: HM
authors.lastname: Li
authors.forename: Colin A
authors.initials: CA
authors.lastname: Graham
authors.forename: Timothy H
authors.initials: TH
authors.lastname: Rainer
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D016887:Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation / Q000401:mortality / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D016638:Critical Illness / Q000453:epidemiology*; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006723:Hong Kong / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D007362:Intensive Care Units; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012372:ROC Curve; D015996:Survival Rate / Q000639:trends; D055815:Young Adult