Generational forecasting in academic medicine: a unique method of planning for success in the next two decades.
Multigenerational teams are essential to the missions of academic health centers (AHCs). Generational forecasting using Strauss and Howe's predictive model, "the generational diagonal," can be useful for anticipating and addressing issues so that each generation is effective. Forecasts are based on the observation that cyclical historical events are experienced by all generations, but the response of each generation differs according to its phase of life and previous defining experiences. This article relates Strauss and Howe's generational forecasts to AHCs. Predicted issues such as work-life balance, indebtedness, and succession planning have existed previously, but they now have different causes or consequences because of the unique experiences and life stages of current generations. Efforts to address these issues at the authors' AHC include a work-life balance workgroup, expanded leave, and intramural grants.
Howell
Lydia Pleotis
LP
Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, University of California, Davis, School of Medicine, Davis, California 95817, USA. lydia.howell@ucdmc.ucdavis.edu
Joad
Jesse P
JP
Callahan
Edward
E
Servis
Gregg
G
Bonham
Ann C
AC
D000046:Academic Medical Centers / Q000639:trends*; D001291:Attitude of Health Personnel; D002140:California; D005180:Faculty, Medical; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D016901:Intergenerational Relations; D010348:Patient Care Team / Q000458:organization & administration*; D012109:Research Support as Topic; D014481:United States; D000078329:Workforce