Invasion, persistence and control in epidemic models for plant pathogens: the effect of host demography.
Many epidemiological models for plant disease include host demography to describe changes in the availability of susceptible tissue for infection. We compare the effects of using two commonly used formulations for host growth, one linear and the other nonlinear, upon the outcomes for invasion, persistence and control of pathogens in a widely used, generic model for botanical epidemics. The criterion for invasion, reflected in the basic reproductive number, R(0), is unaffected by host demography: R(0) is simply a function of epidemiological parameters alone. When, however, host growth is intrinsically nonlinear, unexpected results arise for persistence and the control of disease. The endemic level of infection (I(infinity)) also depends upon R(0). We show, however, that the sensitivity of I(infinity) to changes in R(0) > 1 depends upon which underlying epidemiological parameter is changed. Increasing R(0) by shortening the infectious period results in a monotonic increase in I(infinity). If, however, an increase in R(0) is driven by increases in transmission rates or by decreases in the decay of free-living inoculum, I(infinity) first increases (R(0) < 2), but then decreases (R(0) > 2). This counterintuitive result means that increasing the intensity of control can result in more endemic infection.
Cunniffe
Nik J
NJ
Epidemiology and Modelling Group, Department of Plant Sciences, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EA, UK. njc1001@cam.ac.uk
Gilligan
Christopher A
CA
D008954:Models, Biological; D063245:Plant Development; D010935:Plant Diseases / Q000235:genetics / Q000382:microbiology / Q000517:prevention & control*; D010944:Plants / Q000235:genetics / Q000382:microbiology*