title: Demographic variability, vaccination, and the spatiotemporal dynamics of rotavirus epidemics.
abstract: Historically, annual rotavirus activity in the United States has started in the southwest in late fall and ended in the northeast 3 months later; this trend has diminished in recent years. Traveling waves of infection or local environmental drivers cannot account for these patterns. A transmission model calibrated against epidemiological data shows that spatiotemporal variation in birth rate can explain the timing of rotavirus epidemics. The recent large-scale introduction of rotavirus vaccination provides a natural experiment to further test the impact of susceptible recruitment on disease dynamics. The model predicts a pattern of reduced and lagged epidemics postvaccination, closely matching the observed dynamics. Armed with this validated model, we explore the relative importance of direct and indirect protection, a key issue in determining the worldwide benefits of vaccination.
authors.affiliation: Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA 16801, USA. vep2@psu.edu
authors.forename: Virginia E
authors.initials: VE
authors.lastname: Pitzer
authors.forename: Cécile
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Viboud
authors.forename: Lone
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Simonsen
authors.forename: Claudia
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Steiner
authors.forename: Catherine A
authors.initials: CA
authors.lastname: Panozzo
authors.forename: Wladimir J
authors.initials: WJ
authors.lastname: Alonso
authors.forename: Mark A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Miller
authors.forename: Roger I
authors.initials: RI
authors.lastname: Glass
authors.forename: John W
authors.initials: JW
authors.lastname: Glasser
authors.forename: Umesh D
authors.initials: UD
authors.lastname: Parashar
authors.forename: Bryan T
authors.initials: BT
authors.lastname: Grenfell
mesh_terms: D001723:Birth Rate; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D003967:Diarrhea / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D006801:Humans; D032521:Immunity, Herd; D017589:Immunization Programs; D015994:Incidence; D007223:Infant; D015233:Models, Statistical; D015995:Prevalence; D012400:Rotavirus Infections / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000276:immunology / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000635:transmission; D022243:Rotavirus Vaccines / Q000008:administration & dosage*; D012621:Seasons; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology; D014613:Vaccines, Attenuated / Q000008:administration & dosage
chemical_list: C492535:RotaTeq; D022243:Rotavirus Vaccines; D014613:Vaccines, Attenuated