title: A model and risk score for predicting nevirapine-associated rash among HIV-infected patients: in settings of low CD4 cell counts and resource limitation.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Rash is the most common adverse effect associated with nevirapine (NVP). We aimed to develop a model and risk score for predicting NVP-associated rash among HIV-infected patients with low CD4 cell counts.
  
  
  METHODS
  Cross-sectional study was conducted and 383 HIV-infected patients consecutively enrolled in the study.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Of 222 patients in the training set, 116 (52.2%) were males and median (IQR) age was 35.2 (31.1-42.0) years. Median (IQR) CD4 cell count was 104 (35-225) cells/mm(3). Of these, 72 and 150 patients were in "rash" and "no rash" group, respectively. Four factors were independently associated with rash: a history of drug allergy (odds ratio (OR) 4.01, 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.75-9.20, P = 0.001), body weight <55 kg. (OR 2.02, 95% CI, 1.09-3.76, p = 0.026), not receiving slow dose escalation (OR 2.00, 95% CI, 1.06-3.77, p = 0.032), and no concomitant drug(s) (OR 2.48, 95% CI, 1.32-4.64, p = 0.005). Receiver-operator characteristic analysis yielded area under the curve of 71% and the goodness-of-fit statistics was 6.48 (p = 0.840). The variables were given scores of 14, 7, 7 and 9, respectively. A cutoff >21 points defined the high risk individuals which yielded specificity and positive predictive value of 99% and 69%, respectively, with OR of 3.96 (95% CI, 1.79-8.86, p = 0.001).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  A model and risk score for predicting NVP-associated rash performed well in this study population. It might be useful for predicting the risk of rash before NVP initiation among HIV-infected patients with low CD4 cell counts.
authors.affiliation: Department of Medicine, Mahidol University, 270 Rama VI Road, Bangkok 10400, Thailand. rasal@mahidol.ac.th
authors.forename: Sasisopin
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Kiertiburanakul
authors.forename: Somnuek
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Sungkanuparph
authors.forename: Kumthorn
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Malathum
authors.forename: Siriorn
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Watcharananan
authors.forename: Boonmee
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authors.lastname: Sathapatayavongs
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authors.forename: Surakameth
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authors.forename: Wasun
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Chantratita