title: Bayesian hypothesis testing supports long-distance Pleistocene migrations in a European high mountain plant (Androsace vitaliana, Primulaceae).
abstract: Colonization of the south-western European mountain ranges is suggested to have predominantly progressed from the Iberian Peninsula eastwards, but this hypothesis has never been tested in a statistical framework. Here, we test this hypothesis using Androsace vitaliana, a high elevation species with eight mostly allopatric subspecies, which is widely but disjunctly distributed across all major south-western European mountain ranges. To this end, we use plastid and nuclear sequence data as well as fingerprint (amplified fragment length polymorphisms) data and employ Bayesian methods, which allow co-estimation of genealogy and divergence times using explicit demographic models, as well as hypothesis testing via Bayes factors. Irrespective of the ambiguity concerning where A. vitaliana started to diversify -- both the Alps and the mountain ranges of the Iberian Peninsula outside the Pyrenees were possible -- colonization routes were not simply unidirectional, but involved Pleistocene connections between the Alps and mountain ranges of the Iberian Peninsula bypassing the interjacent Pyrenees via long-distance dispersal. In contrast, the species' post-glacial history is shaped by regional gene pool homogenization resulting in the genetic pattern showing good congruence with geographical proximity in agreement with a vicariance model, but only partly supporting current taxonomy.
authors.affiliation: Department of Biogeography and Botanical Garden, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria. stemonitis@gmail.com
authors.forename: Christopher J
authors.initials: CJ
authors.lastname: Dixon
authors.forename: Peter
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Schönswetter
authors.forename: Pablo
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Vargas
authors.forename: Siegrun
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Ertl
authors.forename: Gerald M
authors.initials: GM
authors.lastname: Schneeweiss
mesh_terms: D054458:Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism Analysis; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D002467:Cell Nucleus / Q000235:genetics; D016172:DNA Fingerprinting; D018742:DNA, Chloroplast / Q000235:genetics; D018744:DNA, Plant / Q000235:genetics; D021903:DNA, Ribosomal Spacer / Q000235:genetics; D005060:Europe; D019143:Evolution, Molecular; D005843:Geography; D006239:Haplotypes; D010802:Phylogeny; D029623:Primulaceae / Q000145:classification / Q000235:genetics*; D017422:Sequence Analysis, DNA
chemical_list: D018742:DNA, Chloroplast; D018744:DNA, Plant; D021903:DNA, Ribosomal Spacer