title: Cardiovascular risk can be represented by scaled rectangle diagrams.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To show how levels of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and occurrence of CVD can be graphically represented.
  
  
  METHODS
  Methodological and using graphics to illustrate CVD risk prediction. Uses data on CVD risk and outcomes in three studies from New Zealand, China, and Scotland with levels of risk determined by multivariate risk scores.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The diagrams clearly show that risk levels and actual CVD occurrence do not often occur together, many individuals at high risk do not experience a CVD event and conversely, many CVD events do not occur in the labeled high risk.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Scaled rectangles can easily be formed to show how modeled predicted risk levels and actual occurrence of CVD coincide. Poor discrimination is well illustrated.
authors.affiliation: Section of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Population Health, University of Auckland, New Zealand. rj.marshall@auckland.ac.nz
authors.forename: Roger J
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: Marshall
mesh_terms: D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology* / Q000517:prevention & control; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D008403:Mass Screening; D008488:Medical Illustration; D009520:New Zealand / Q000453:epidemiology; D049451:Nomograms; D011379:Prognosis; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D012606:Scotland / Q000453:epidemiology