title: Hantavirus reservoir Oligoryzomys longicaudatus spatial distribution sensitivity to climate change scenarios in Argentine Patagonia.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Oligoryzomys longicaudatus (colilargo) is the rodent responsible for hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) in Argentine Patagonia. In past decades (1967-1998), trends of precipitation reduction and surface air temperature increase have been observed in western Patagonia. We explore how the potential distribution of the hantavirus reservoir would change under different climate change scenarios based on the observed trends.
  
  
  METHODS
  Four scenarios of potential climate change were constructed using temperature and precipitation changes observed in Argentine Patagonia between 1967 and 1998: Scenario 1 assumed no change in precipitation but a temperature trend as observed; scenario 2 assumed no changes in temperature but a precipitation trend as observed; Scenario 3 included changes in both temperature and precipitation trends as observed; Scenario 4 assumed changes in both temperature and precipitation trends as observed but doubled. We used a validated spatial distribution model of O. longicaudatus as a function of temperature and precipitation. From the model probability of the rodent presence was calculated for each scenario.
  
  
  RESULTS
  If changes in precipitation follow previous trends, the probability of the colilargo presence would fall in the HPS transmission zone of northern Patagonia. If temperature and precipitation trends remain at current levels for 60 years or double in the future 30 years, the probability of the rodent presence and the associated total area of potential distribution would diminish throughout Patagonia; the areas of potential distribution for colilargos would shift eastwards. These results suggest that future changes in Patagonia climate may lower transmission risk through a reduction in the potential distribution of the rodent reservoir.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  According to our model the rates of temperature and precipitation changes observed between 1967 and 1998 may produce significant changes in the rodent distribution in an equivalent period of time only in certain areas. Given that changes maintain for 60 years or double in 30 years, the hantavirus reservoir Oligoryzomys longicaudatus may contract its distribution in Argentine Patagonia extensively.
authors.affiliation: Unidad de Ecología de Reservorios y Vectores de Parásitos, Depto Ecología, Genética y Evolución, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires, CONICET, Buenos Aires, Argentina.
authors.forename: Aníbal E
authors.initials: AE
authors.lastname: Carbajo
authors.forename: Carolina
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Vera
authors.forename: Paula Lm
authors.initials: PL
authors.lastname: González
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001118:Argentina / Q000453:epidemiology; D003710:Demography; D004784:Environmental Monitoring / Q000379:methods; D062665:Epidemiological Monitoring; D017752:Greenhouse Effect; D006476:Orthohantavirus; D018804:Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission; D015233:Models, Statistical; D012377:Rodentia; D016205:Sigmodontinae