title: A prospective study of outcome and predictors of subclinical and clinical depression in an older biracial sample of psychiatric outpatients.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  There continues to be a debate about the long-term prognosis of psychiatric treatment of depression in later life. There have been no long-term naturalistic studies of psychiatric outpatient treatment of older adults in the United States. This study examines outcome and predictors of various levels of depression among a biracial sample of geropsychiatric outpatients in Brooklyn, NY.
  
  
  METHODS
  We conducted a naturalistic study (median: 33 months) of 143 persons aged 55 and over with diagnoses of depression drawn from 15 psychiatry outpatient clinics and 2 geriatric day programs. Their mean age was 68 years, 87% were female, and 43% were white and 57% were black, among whom 37% were African Caribbeans. Using George's Social Antecedent Model of Depression, we examined the impact of 15 predictor variables on two outcome measures: presence of any either subclinical or clinical depression (CES-D score > or = 8) and presence of clinical depression (CES-D score > or = 16).
  
  
  RESULTS
  On follow-up, 84% and 90% of subclinically and clinically depressed persons at baseline, respectively, were depressed (CES-D > or = 8); 62% of those in remission at baseline were depressed. In logistic regression, 3 variables were significant predictors of any level of depression on follow-up: baseline depression, baseline anxiety, greater increase in anxiety symptoms during the follow-up period. These 3 variables along with financial strain were significant predictors of clinical depression on follow-up. There were no inter- or intra-racial differences in outcome.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The bleak outcome findings among older psychiatric outpatients in Brooklyn were consistent with unfavorable results reported in European studies. Because there were only a few predictors of outcome, strategies that target high risk persons - e.g., such as those with subclinical depression, anxiety, or in more economic distress - may prevent transition to severe and persistent depressive states.
authors: SUNY Downstate Medical Center, Brooklyn, NY 11203, United States. carl.cohen@downstate.edu
authors: Carl I
authors: CI
authors: Cohen
authors: Kah Hong
authors: KH
authors: Goh
authors: Mario
authors: M
authors: Gustave
mesh_terms: D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000554:Ambulatory Care Facilities; D044383:Black People / Q000523:psychology* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D003631:Day Care, Medical; D003866:Depressive Disorder / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000208:ethnology* / Q000523:psychology; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009519:New York City; D010555:Personality Inventory / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D011379:Prognosis; D011446:Prospective Studies; D011594:Psychometrics; D012307:Risk Factors; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors; D013223:Statistics as Topic; D014505:Urban Population; D044465:White People / Q000523:psychology* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D001741:Black or African American