Estimates of health care professional shortages in sub-Saharan Africa by 2015.
This paper uses a forecasting model to estimate the need for, supply of, and shortage of doctors, nurses, and midwives in thirty-nine African countries for 2015, the target date of the United Nations Millennium Development Goals. We forecast that thirty-one countries will experience needs-based shortages of doctors, nurses, and midwives, totaling approximately 800,000 health professionals. We estimate the additional annual wage bill required to eliminate the shortage at about $2.6 billion (2007 $US)-more than 2.5 times current wage-bill projections for 2015. We illustrate how changes in workforce mix can reduce this cost, and we discuss policy implications of our results.
Scheffler
Richard M
RM
School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA. rscheff@berkeley.edu
Mahoney
Chris Brown
CB
Fulton
Brent D
BD
Dal Poz
Mario R
MR
Preker
Alexander S
AS
D017954:Africa South of the Sahara; D005544:Forecasting / Q000379:methods; D006291:Health Policy; D006301:Health Services Needs and Demand; D006280:Health Workforce / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends*; D006801:Humans; D012456:Salaries and Fringe Benefits / Q000706:statistics & numerical data