[Three prognostic scales; clinical utility and prediction of intrahospital survival in alcoholic hepatitis].
BACKGROUND
Alcoholic hepatitis is a serious clinical problem; opportune detection is transcendental for treatment and survival improvement. The aim of this study was to evaluate clinical utility of in-hospital mortality prediction of 3 alcoholic hepatitis scores and to assess survival prediction fitting them to the best cut-off points.


METHODS
Retrospective, observational study. All patients with diagnosis of alcoholic hepatitis from January 2002 to January 2005 were included.Clinical and laboratory variables were analyzed for the different prognostic scores (MELD, GAHS and the Discriminate Function Maddrey's index) calculation. Evaluation of clinical utility scores was done with ROC curves and expressed by c-statistics. After fitting best cut-off points, survival prediction was assessed by Kaplan-Meier's method.


RESULTS
Of 120 patients with alcoholic hepatitis, 48 fulfilled the admission criteria. The c-statistics of MELD was of 0.72, GAHS 0.75 and Maddrey's index 0.64. Survival analysis of the 3 prognostic scales showed statistical significance (log rank < 0.05) with the adjusted cut-off point to our population.


CONCLUSIONS
The prediction of in hospital survival of GAHS, MELD and Maddrey's index after fitting best cut-off points are similar. The clinical utility for in-hospital mortality prediction of GAHS and MELD are superior to Maddrey's index in this Mexican cohort.
Altamirano-Gómez
J T
JT
Laboratorio de Referencia e Investigación en Hepatología, Servicio de Medicina Interna-Hepatología, Hospital Universitario Vall d'Hebron, Barcelona, España. jtaltami@vhebron.net
Zapata-Irissón
L
L
Augustin-Recio
S
S
Muntaner-Muñoz
L
L
González-Angulo
A
A
Ortiz-Salgado
A
A
D000328:Adult; D005260:Female; D006519:Hepatitis, Alcoholic / Q000401:mortality*; D017052:Hospital Mortality; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011379:Prognosis; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D015996:Survival Rate