title: Impact of pegylated interferon and ribavirin on morbidity and mortality in patients with chronic hepatitis C and normal aminotransferases in France.
abstract: Clinicians continue to raise questions concerning the necessity of treating chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patients with normal alanine aminotransferase (N-ALT), in light of their slower progression to cirrhosis than patients with elevated alanine aminotraferase (E-ALT). This study was undertaken to predict the impact of pegylated interferon (IFN) and ribavirin on HCV-related morbidity and mortality in patients with N-ALT. A previous Markov model was adapted to separately simulate patients with N-ALT (30%) and those with E-ALT (70%). The model estimates fibrosis progression rates according to age, sex, and whether ALT levels are normal or elevated, assuming that patients with E-ALT have a 2.6 times higher progression than those with N-ALT. It takes into account improvement in HCV screening and treatment and competitive mortality. We assumed that N-ALT patients were treated 80% less frequently between 2002 and 2004 and 70% less frequently from 2005 on, as obtained in real life from three multicentric cohorts (Hepatys, Adequation, Persee). Antiviral treatment of HCV-infected populations might reduce 2008-2025 HCV-related morbidity and mortality by 34,200 cases of cirrhosis (36%, 33,000-35,000), 22,400 complications (28%, 21,000-23,000) and 17,500 deaths (25%, 17,000-18,000), including 3000 cases of cirrhosis (22%, 2000-5000), 1200 complications (15%, 1000-1700), and 1000 deaths (14%, 900-1300) in the N-ALT population, despite a probability of receiving treatment that is three to five times less in this population. If N-ALT patients are treated at the same proportions as those with E-ALT, morbidity and mortality could be further reduced by 1400 cases of cirrhosis (13%, 1200-2200), 600 complications (9%, 600-1000), and 500 deaths (9%, 500-800).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Treatment of N-ALT patients would decrease HCV morbidity and mortality. These patients should be considered candidates for treatment just as others are.
authors.affiliation: Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale U795, Faculté de Médecine, Pôle Recherche, Lille, France. sylvie.burban@yahoo.fr
authors.forename: Sylvie
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Deuffic-Burban
authors.forename: Gérard
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Babany
authors.forename: Isabelle
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Lonjon-Domanec
authors.forename: Pierre
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Deltenre
authors.forename: Valérie
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Canva-Delcambre
authors.forename: Sébastien
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Dharancy
authors.forename: Alexandre
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Louvet
authors.forename: Françoise
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Roudot-Thoraval
authors.forename: Philippe
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Mathurin
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000410:Alanine Transaminase / Q000097:blood*; D000998:Antiviral Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D018450:Disease Progression; D004359:Drug Therapy, Combination; D005260:Female; D005602:France; D019698:Hepatitis C, Chronic / Q000097:blood / Q000188:drug therapy* / Q000401:mortality*; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D000077190:Interferon alpha-2; D016898:Interferon-alpha / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D018579:Patient Selection; D011092:Polyethylene Glycols / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D011994:Recombinant Proteins; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012254:Ribavirin / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D055815:Young Adult
chemical_list: D000998:Antiviral Agents; D000077190:Interferon alpha-2; D016898:Interferon-alpha; D011994:Recombinant Proteins; D011092:Polyethylene Glycols; D012254:Ribavirin; D000410:Alanine Transaminase; C100416:peginterferon alfa-2a