title: The crime drop in comparative perspective: the impact of the economy and imprisonment on American and European burglary rates.
abstract: Influential statements on recent American crime reductions maintain that the crime drop was confined to the USA. Yet other research has revealed comparable crime decreases in Europe. We suggest that the USA and European crime declines occurred in tandem because they were both brought about by upturns in the economy. In light of US research showing crime reductions resulting from growth in imprisonment, we also examine the possibility that rising imprisonment rates reduced European crime rates. We test these hypotheses in a pooled cross-sectional time-series analysis of burglary rates in the USA and nine European nations between 1993 and 2006. The results indicate that burglary declines in the US and Europe were associated with rising consumer confidence. By contrast, imprisonment appears to be significantly related to burglary rates only after unusual policy interventions, such as Italy's 2006 clemency measure that dramatically reduced the size of its prison population. We interpret these findings as reflecting the structural similarity and economic integration of the world's developed nations and the uneven convergence in US and European punishment policies.
authors.affiliation: Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice, University of Missouri-St Louis, Missouri, USA. richard_rosenfeld@umsl.edu
authors.forename: Richard
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Rosenfeld
authors.forename: Steven F
authors.initials: SF
authors.lastname: Messner
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D003365:Costs and Cost Analysis; D003415:Crime / Q000191:economics* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D004467:Economics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D005060:Europe / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D011330:Prisons / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology; D014505:Urban Population; D055815:Young Adult