title: Predictors of surgical approach to repair pelvic fracture urethral distraction defects.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  We identified preoperative factors predictive of the appropriate surgical approach to anastomotic repair of pelvic fracture urethral distraction defects.
  
  
  METHODS
  We reviewed the medical records and imaging studies of 121 patients who had undergone anastomotic repair of a pelvic fracture urethral distraction defect. The review was focused on 10 preoperative clinicoradiological variables that may influence or predict the surgical repair. The patients were categorized as having undergone a simple perineal operation (78 patients, group 1), or an elaborated perineal or a combined perineo-abdominal procedure (43 patients, group 2). Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to identify preoperative parameters predictive of the type of anastomotic repair. In addition, ROC analysis was used to assess prediction results of the multivariate analysis.
  
  
  RESULTS
  On univariate analysis 5 parameters were significant predictors of the type of repair, while on multivariate analysis only 3 parameters remained strong and independent predictors including the gapometry/urethrometry index, urethral gap length and prostatic displacement. The gapometry/urethrometry index was a proxy for all other parameters. At a cutoff index of 0.35 the appropriate surgical repair was predicted with 91% specificity and a 95% positive predictive value. When ROC analysis was performed the AUC was 0.979.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The type of anastomotic repair of pelvic fracture urethral distraction defect can be predicted by 3 preoperative factors, namely the gapometry/urethrometry index, urethral gap length and prostatic displacement. The gapometry/urethrometry index has the highest predictive accuracy and is a proxy for all other factors. An index less than 0.35 indicates a simple perineal operation and an index greater than 0.35 indicates an elaborated perineal or a transpubic procedure.
authors.affiliation: Department of Urology, College of Medicine, University of Alexandria, Alexandria, Egypt. koraitim_mm@yahoo.com
authors.forename: Mamdouh M
authors.initials: MM
authors.lastname: Koraitim
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D005544:Forecasting; D050723:Fractures, Bone / Q000150:complications*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D010384:Pelvic Bones / Q000293:injuries*; D014521:Urethra / Q000293:injuries* / Q000601:surgery*; D013520:Urologic Surgical Procedures / Q000379:methods