title: The decline in U.S. cancer mortality in people born since 1925.
abstract: The conventional practice of analyzing overall age-adjusted cancer mortality rates heavily emphasizes the experience of older, higher mortality age groups. This may conceal shifts in lifetime cancer mortality experience emerging first in younger age groups. We examined age-specific cancer mortality rates and birth cohort-specific cancer mortality rates in U.S. mortality data recorded since 1955 to assess the effects of age, period, and cohort in secular mortality trends. Cancer mortality and population data were obtained from WHO Statistical Information System. Age-specific cancer mortality rates have been steadily declining in the United States since the early 1950s, beginning with children and young adults and now including all age groups. During the second half of the 20th century, each successive decade of births from 1925 to 1995 experienced a lower risk of cancer death than its predecessor at virtually every age for which such a comparison can be made. A major decline in cancer mortality has been occurring in the United States for the past 50 years, affecting birth cohorts born as long as 80 years ago. Excepting lung cancer, much of this decline has occurred despite relatively stable cancer incidence. These findings suggest that improvements in cancer detection, treatment, and/or prevention have reduced the risk of cancer death across the life span for individuals born in the last three quarters of the 20th century.
authors.affiliation: Laboratory of Molecular Epidemiology, Van Andel Research Institute, Grand Rapids, Michigan 49503, USA. korter@resident.grmerc.net
authors.forename: Eric J
authors.initials: EJ
authors.lastname: Kort
authors.forename: Nigel
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Paneth
authors.forename: George F
authors.initials: GF
authors.lastname: Vande Woude
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D015331:Cohort Studies; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008875:Middle Aged; D009369:Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality*; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology; D055815:Young Adult
references.citation: JAMA. 1988 Mar 18;259(11):1690-4
references.pmid: 3278148
references.citation: N Engl J Med. 1997 Sep 25;337(13):931-4; discussion 937-8
references.pmid: 9302311
references.citation: Br J Cancer. 2002 Jul 1;87(1):43-8
references.pmid: 12085254
references.citation: J Natl Cancer Inst. 2001 Jun 6;93(11):824-42
references.pmid: 11390532
references.citation: N Engl J Med. 1986 May 8;314(19):1226-32
references.pmid: 3702918
references.citation: Cancer Causes Control. 2005 Aug;16(6):701-12
references.pmid: 16049809
references.citation: J Natl Cancer Inst. 2003 Sep 3;95(17):1276-99
references.pmid: 12953083
references.citation: J Natl Cancer Inst. 2005 Oct 5;97(19):1407-27
references.pmid: 16204691
references.citation: J Natl Cancer Inst. 2001 Feb 21;93(4):277-83
references.pmid: 11181774
references.citation: N Engl J Med. 1993 Dec 30;329(27):1977-81
references.pmid: 8247072
references.citation: Lancet. 1962 Jan 20;1(7221):115-9
references.pmid: 13918500
references.citation: Int J Tuberc Lung Dis. 2002 Jul;6(7):562-8
references.pmid: 12102293
references.citation: Cancer. 1978 Aug;42(2 Suppl):979-90
references.pmid: 356960
references.citation: Lung Cancer. 2008 Mar;59(3):282-90
references.pmid: 18037190
references.citation: Cancer. 2000 May 15;88(10):2398-424
references.pmid: 10820364
references.citation: J Natl Cancer Inst. 2004 Jan 21;96(2):99-106
references.pmid: 14734699
references.citation: CA Cancer J Clin. 1993 Jan-Feb;43(1):42-6
references.pmid: 8422604
references.citation: Acta Unio Int Contra Cancrum. 1953;9(3):552-61
references.pmid: 13124112
references.citation: N Engl J Med. 1997 May 29;336(22):1569-74
references.pmid: 9164814
references.citation: Stat Med. 1994 Apr 30;13(8):823-38
references.pmid: 8047738
references.citation: Lancet Oncol. 2008 May;9(5):445-52
references.pmid: 18424233
references.citation: Ann Epidemiol. 1999 Feb;9(2):91-2
references.pmid: 10037551
references.citation: Blood. 1953 Nov;8(11):965-99
references.pmid: 13105700
references.citation: Newsweek. 2008 Sep 15;152(11):42-4, 46, 57-8 passim
references.pmid: 18800570
references.citation: J Natl Cancer Inst. 1999 Apr 21;91(8):675-90
references.pmid: 10218505
references.citation: N Engl J Med. 1997 Sep 25;337(13):935; author reply 937-8
references.pmid: 9304050
references.citation: Biostatistics. 2001 Mar;2(1):109-29
references.pmid: 12933560
references.citation: Cancer Causes Control. 2001 Nov;12(9):813-20
references.pmid: 11714109
references.citation: Br J Cancer. 1951 Mar;5(1):21-7
references.pmid: 14839199
references.citation: Br J Prev Soc Med. 1956 Oct;10(4):159-71
references.pmid: 13396199
references.citation: J Clin Oncol. 2005 Nov 1;23(31):7836-41
references.pmid: 16258086
references.citation: Cancer. 2003 Jun 15;97(12 Suppl):3133-275
references.pmid: 12784323
references.citation: Cancer. 2002 May 15;94(10):2766-92
references.pmid: 12173348
references.citation: Cancer. 1974 May;33(5):1219-5
references.pmid: 4856724
references.citation: J Natl Cancer Inst. 1983 Sep;71(3):473-9
references.pmid: 6577223
references.citation: Int J Cancer. 2000 Jul 1;87(1):122-8
references.pmid: 10861462
references.citation: Biometrics. 1997 Mar;53(1):161-77
references.pmid: 9147590