Validation of model for end-stage liver disease score to serum sodium ratio index as a prognostic predictor in patients with cirrhosis.
OBJECTIVE
To evaluate the prognostic ability of model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) to serum sodium (SNa) ratio (MESO) index and to compare the predictive accuracy of the MESO index with the MELD score and the modified Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score for short-term survival in cirrhotic patients.


METHODS
A total of 256 patients with cirrhosis were retrospectively evaluated. The predictive accuracy of the MESO index, MELD score and modified CTP score were compared by the area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve (AUC).


RESULTS
Using 1-month and 3-month mortality as the end-point, overall, MESO and MELD were significantly better than the CTP score in predicting the risk of mortality at 1 month (AUC, 0.866,0.819 vs 0.722, P < 0.01) and 3 months (AUC, 0.875,0.820 vs 0.721, P < 0.01). In the low MELD group, the AUC of MESO index (0.758, 0.759) and CTP score (0.754, 0.732) were higher than that of the MELD score (0.608, 0.611) at 1 month and 3 months, respectively (P < 0.01). However, in the high MELD group, the AUC of MESO index (0.762, 0.779) and MELD (0.737, 0.773) were higher than that of the CTP score (0.710, 0.752) at 1 month and 3 months, respectively, although there were no significant differences (P > 0.05). With appropriate cut-offs for the MESO index, the mortality rate of patients in high MESO was higher (57.1% at 1 month and 69.2% at 3 months) than that of the low MESO (5.5% at 1 month and 7.9% at 3 months) (P < 0.01).


CONCLUSIONS
The MESO index, which adds SNa to MELD, is a useful prognostic marker and is found to be superior to the MELD score and modified CTP score for short-term prognostication of patients with cirrhosis.
Lv
Xiao-Hui
XH
Department of Gastroenterology, First Affiliated Hospital, China Medical University, Shenyang, Liaoning Province, China. lvxiaohui1122@163.com
Liu
Hong-Bo
HB
Wang
Ying
Y
Wang
Bing-Yuan
BY
Song
Min
M
Sun
Ming-Jun
MJ
D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D001201:Ascites / Q000097:blood / Q000209:etiology / Q000473:pathology; D015415:Biomarkers / Q000097:blood; D018450:Disease Progression; D004932:Esophageal and Gastric Varices / Q000097:blood / Q000209:etiology / Q000473:pathology; D005260:Female; D006305:Health Status Indicators; D006501:Hepatic Encephalopathy / Q000097:blood / Q000209:etiology / Q000473:pathology; D006801:Humans; D007010:Hyponatremia / Q000097:blood / Q000209:etiology* / Q000401:mortality / Q000473:pathology; D053208:Kaplan-Meier Estimate; D008103:Liver Cirrhosis / Q000097:blood / Q000150:complications / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000401:mortality / Q000473:pathology; D017093:Liver Failure / Q000097:blood / Q000209:etiology* / Q000401:mortality / Q000473:pathology; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008954:Models, Biological; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D012372:ROC Curve; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D012964:Sodium / Q000097:blood*; D013997:Time Factors
D015415:Biomarkers; D012964:Sodium