[Estimating the 2006 prevalence of HIV by gender and risk groups in Tijuana, Mexico].
OBJECTIVE
Estimate the 2006 HIV prevalence among adults aged 15-49 from the general population and at-risk subgroups in Tijuana, Mexico.


METHODS
Demographic data was obtained from the 2005 Mexican census and HIV prevalence data was obtained from reports in the literature. We developed a population-based HIV prevalence model for the overall population and stratified it by gender. Sensitivity analysis consisted of estimating standard errors in the weighted-average point prevalence and calculating partial derivatives of each parameter.


RESULTS
HIV prevalence among adults was 0.54% (N = 4347) (range 0.22-0.86% [N = 1750-6944]). This suggests that 0.85% (range 0.39-1.31%) of men and 0.22% (0.04-0.40%) of women could have been HIV-infected in 2006. Men who have sex with men (MSM), followed by female sex workers who are injection drug users (FSW-IDU), FSW-non IDU, female IDU, and male IDU were the most at risk groups of infected individuals.


CONCLUSIONS
The number of HIV-infected adults among at-risk subgroups in Tijuana is significant, highlighting the need to design tailored prevention interventions that focus on the specific needs of certain groups. According to our model, as many as 1 in 116 adults could potentially be HIV-infected.
Iñiguez-Stevens
Esmeralda
E
School of Medicine, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California, USA.
Brouwer
Kimberly C
KC
Hogg
Robert S
RS
Patterson
Thomas L
TL
Lozada
Remedios
R
Magis-Rodríguez
Carlos
C
Elder
John P
JP
Viani
Rolando M
RM
Strathdee
Steffanie A
SA
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D005260:Female; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008800:Mexico / Q000453:epidemiology; D008875:Middle Aged; D015995:Prevalence; D012307:Risk Factors; D017678:Sex Distribution; D055815:Young Adult
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