title: Breast cancer risk assessments to barrier contraception exposure. A new approach.
abstract: (Full text is available at http://www.manu.edu.mk/prilozi). The risk prediction models for breast cancer remain unsatisfactory. The existing models of breast cancer risk assessment have failed to consider (calculate) the exposure to condom use, defined as the major risk factor of breast cancer. All the models, including the NCI-Gail model, are based on the so-called "known" breast cancer risk factors, such as, menarche, age at first birth, parity, OC pills, diet, physical activity, age at menopause, number of breast biopsies, family history, ethnicity (race), age and other. The commonest predictions of the models has been that "All women are at risk of breast cancer," which is deemed as a patently incorrect assessment. The risk assessments have served for identification and recruitment of women at "elevated risk" of breast cancer both for therapeutic randomized clinical trials (RCTs), and for implementing a possible clinical policy of "prophylactic" mastectomy and other prior surgical interventions. However, the models have raised questions lately about their adequacy and practical usefulness, because of the use of "weak" and inadequate risk factors. This study presents the results of a new approach and alternative model and results to the risk assessment of breast cancer, by calculating the exposure to barrier contraceptive practice (condom use and withdrawal practice) along with the factors of parity, age and other (non-barrier) birth-control methods, within a 5-year time period and the life span 20-54 years of age, by employing the Bayes' Probability Theorem. Key words: Breast cancer, Risk Assessment, New Approach, Bayes' Theorem, Parity, Condom Risk Factor, Primary prevention.
authors.affiliation: Ul. G. Hadzi-Panzov, 2, 1000 Skopje, R. Macedonia. arne.gjorgov@yahoo.com
authors.forename: N A
authors.initials: NA
authors.lastname: Gjorgov
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D001943:Breast Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology*; D017280:Condoms; D042121:Contraception, Barrier / Q000009:adverse effects*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008875:Middle Aged; D010298:Parity; D011247:Pregnancy; D018570:Risk Assessment; D055815:Young Adult