title: The model for end-stage liver disease score is the best prognostic factor in human immunodeficiency virus 1-infected patients with end-stage liver disease: a prospective cohort study.
abstract: End-stage liver disease (ESLD) has become the main cause of mortality in patients coinfected by human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and hepatitis B virus or hepatitis C virus in developed countries. The aim of this study was to describe the natural history of and prognostic factors for ESLD, with particular attention paid to features affecting liver transplantation. This was a prospective cohort study in 2 Spanish community-based hospitals performed between 1999 and 2004. One hundred four consecutive patients with cirrhosis and a first clinical decompensation of their chronic liver disease or hepatocellular carcinoma were included in the study. During a median follow-up of 10 months (endpoint: death, liver transplantation, or the last checkup date), 61 patients (59%) died. The probability of mortality (Kaplan-Meier method) at 1, 2, and 3 years was 43% [95% confidence interval (CI), 34%-60%], 59% (95% CI, 48%-70%), and 70% (95% Cl, 59%-81%), respectively. In a multivariate analysis, the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score and the inability to reach an undetectable plasma HIV-1 RNA viral load at any time during follow-up were the only variables independently associated with the risk of death (P < 0.001). Fifteen (14%) of the 104 patients were accepted for liver transplantation, although only 5 underwent the procedure, and 10 died while on the waiting list. The waiting list mortality rate in patients with a MELD score < 20 and in patients with a MELD score >20 was 58% and 100%, respectively (median follow-up, 5 months). In conclusion, HIV-1-infected patients with ESLD, especially those with poorly controlled HIV and a high MELD score, have a poor short-term outcome. The MELD score may be useful in deciding whether to indicate liver transplantation in these patients. However, because only a small proportion of the patients in this study were considered candidates for liver transplantation and most died while on the waiting list, few received a transplant.
authors.affiliation: Hospital Son Dureta, Palma de Mallorca, Spain.
authors.forename: Javier
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Murillas
authors.forename: Antonio
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Rimola
authors.forename: Montserrat
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Laguno
authors.forename: Elisa
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: de Lazzari
authors.forename: Javier
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Rascón
authors.forename: Fernando
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Agüero
authors.forename: José L
authors.initials: JL
authors.lastname: Blanco
authors.forename: Eduardo
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Moitinho
authors.forename: Asunción
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Moreno
authors.forename: José M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Miró
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D023241:Antiretroviral Therapy, Highly Active; D000998:Antiviral Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use; D006528:Carcinoma, Hepatocellular / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000401:mortality / Q000601:surgery / Q000821:virology; D005260:Female; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000150:complications* / Q000188:drug therapy / Q000401:mortality / Q000821:virology; D015497:HIV-1 / Q000235:genetics / Q000472:pathogenicity*; D006305:Health Status Indicators; D016174:Hepacivirus / Q000235:genetics; D006509:Hepatitis B / Q000150:complications* / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000188:drug therapy / Q000401:mortality; D006526:Hepatitis C / Q000150:complications* / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000188:drug therapy / Q000401:mortality; D006801:Humans; D053208:Kaplan-Meier Estimate; D008103:Liver Cirrhosis / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000401:mortality / Q000601:surgery / Q000821:virology; D017093:Liver Failure / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000401:mortality / Q000601:surgery / Q000821:virology; D008113:Liver Neoplasms / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000401:mortality / Q000601:surgery / Q000821:virology; D016031:Liver Transplantation / Q000009:adverse effects / Q000401:mortality; D008297:Male; D008954:Models, Biological; D018579:Patient Selection; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012367:RNA, Viral / Q000097:blood; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D013030:Spain / Q000453:epidemiology; D013997:Time Factors; D016896:Treatment Outcome; D019562:Viral Load; D014850:Waiting Lists
chemical_list: D000998:Antiviral Agents; D012367:RNA, Viral