title: Prediction of the rate of decline in FEV(1) in smokers using quantitative Computed Tomography.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  A study was undertaken to determine if quantitative CT estimates of lung parenchymal overinflation and airway dimensions in smokers with a normal forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV(1)) can predict the rapid decline in FEV(1) that leads to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).
  
  
  METHODS
  Study participants (n = 143; age 45-72 years; 54% male) were part of a lung cancer screening trial, had a smoking history of >30 pack years and a normal FEV(1) and FEV(1)/forced vital capacity (FVC) at baseline (mean (SD) FEV(1) 99.4 (12.8)%, range 80.2-140.7%; mean (SD) FEV(1)/FVC 77.9 (4.4), range 70.0-88.0%). An inspiratory multislice CT scan was acquired for each subject at baseline. Custom software was used to measure airway lumen and wall dimensions; the percentage of the lung inflated beyond a predicted maximal lung inflation, the low attenuation lung area with an x ray attenuation lower than -950 HU and the size distribution of the overinflated lung areas and the low attenuation area were described using a cluster analysis. Multiple regression analysis was used to test the hypothesis that these CT measurements combined with other baseline characteristics might identify those who would develop an excessive annual decline in FEV(1).
  
  
  RESULTS
  The mean (SD) annual change in FEV(1) was -2.3 (4.7)% predicted (range -23.0% to +8.3%). Multiple regression analysis revealed that the annual change in FEV(1)%predicted was significantly associated with baseline percentage overinflated lung area measured on quantitative CT, FEV(1)% predicted, FEV(1)/FVC and gender.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Quantitative CT scan evidence of overinflation of the lung predicts a rapid annual decline in FEV(1) in smokers with normal FEV(1).
authors.affiliation: University of British Columbia James Hogg iCAPTURE Centre for Cardiovascular and Pulmonary Research and the Providence Heart + Lung Institute, St Paul's Hospital, British Columbia, Canada.
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Yuan
authors.forename: J C
authors.initials: JC
authors.lastname: Hogg
authors.forename: P D
authors.initials: PD
authors.lastname: Paré
authors.forename: D D
authors.initials: DD
authors.lastname: Sin
authors.forename: J C
authors.initials: JC
authors.lastname: Wong
authors.forename: Y
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Nakano
authors.forename: A M
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: McWilliams
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Lam
authors.forename: H O
authors.initials: HO
authors.lastname: Coxson
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D005260:Female; D005541:Forced Expiratory Volume / Q000502:physiology; D006801:Humans; D008168:Lung / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging / Q000503:physiopathology*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D029424:Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging / Q000503:physiopathology*; D012907:Smoking / Q000503:physiopathology*; D014057:Tomography, X-Ray Computed / Q000379:methods; D014797:Vital Capacity