Early-warning signals for critical transitions.
Complex dynamical systems, ranging from ecosystems to financial markets and the climate, can have tipping points at which a sudden shift to a contrasting dynamical regime may occur. Although predicting such critical points before they are reached is extremely difficult, work in different scientific fields is now suggesting the existence of generic early-warning signals that may indicate for a wide class of systems if a critical threshold is approaching.
Scheffer
Marten
M
Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, PO Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands. marten.scheffer@wur.nl
Bascompte
Jordi
J
Brock
William A
WA
Brovkin
Victor
V
Carpenter
Stephen R
SR
Dakos
Vasilis
V
Held
Hermann
H
van Nes
Egbert H
EH
Rietkerk
Max
M
Sugihara
George
G
D000818:Animals; D001249:Asthma / Q000503:physiopathology; D002980:Climate; D017753:Ecosystem; D005068:Eutrophication; D053476:Extinction, Biological; D006801:Humans; D008954:Models, Biological; D018803:Models, Economic; D012640:Seizures / Q000503:physiopathology; D013269:Stochastic Processes