title: The dark side of optimism: unrealistic optimism about problems with alcohol predicts subsequent negative event experiences.
abstract: College students were identified who were unrealistically optimistic about the likelihood they would experience severe problems due to alcohol consumption. These individuals were then followed over a 2-year period to determine whether they were more likely to report experiencing a range of alcohol-related negative events. Unlike the majority of studies on unrealistic optimism, this study (a) assessed bias at the individual rather than group level and (b) used a prospective rather than cross-sectional design. Participants completed measures at four times, each separated by 4-6 months. Findings showed that unrealistic optimism at Time 1 was associated with a greater number of negative events at Times 2, 3, and 4. Similarly, unrealistic optimism at Time 2 was associated with more negative events at Times 3 and 4. In all cases, the relationships were significant when controlling for previous negative events, suggesting the effects of unrealistic optimism can mount over time.
authors.affiliation: Center for Behavioral and Decision Sciences in Medicine, 300 N. Ingalls Building, Room 7C27, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-0429, USA. amandad@med.umich.edu
authors.forename: Amanda J
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Dillard
authors.forename: Amanda M
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Midboe
authors.forename: William M P
authors.initials: WM
authors.lastname: Klein
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D019973:Alcohol-Related Disorders / Q000523:psychology*; D003717:Denial, Psychological; D005260:Female; D015438:Health Behavior; D006801:Humans; D007206:Individuality; D033182:Intention; D007600:Judgment; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D011446:Prospective Studies; D011936:Reality Testing; D012309:Risk-Taking; D012928:Social Desirability; D013334:Students / Q000523:psychology; D055815:Young Adult