title: Asian aerosols: current and year 2030 distributions and implications to human health and regional climate change.
abstract: Aerosol distributions in Asia calculated over a 4-year period and constrained by satellite observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) are presented. Vast regions in Asia that include > 80% of the population have PM2.5 concentrations that exceed on an annual basis the WHO guideline of 10 microg/m3, often by factors of 2 to 4. These high aerosol loadings also have important radiative effects, causing a significant dimming at the surface, and mask approximately 45% of the warming by greenhouse gases. Black carbon (BC) concentrations are high throughout Asia, representing 5-10% of the total AOD, and contributing significantly to atmospheric warming (its warming potential is approximately 55% of that due to CO2). PM levels and AODs in year 2030, estimated based on simulations that consider future changes in emissions, are used to explore opportunities for win-win strategies built upon addressing air quality and climate change together. It is found that in 2030 the PM2.5 levels in significant parts of Asia will increase and exacerbate health impacts; but the aerosols will have a larger masking effect on radiative forcing, due to a decrease in BC and an increase in SO2 emissions.
authors.affiliation: Center for Global and Regional Environmental Research, University of Iowa, 424 IATL, Iowa City, Iowa 52242, USA. gcarmich@engineering.uiowa.edu
authors.forename: Gregory R
authors.initials: GR
authors.lastname: Carmichael
authors.forename: Bhupesh
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Adhikary
authors.forename: Sarika
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Kulkarni
authors.forename: Alessio
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: D'Allura
authors.forename: Youhua
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Tang
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Streets
authors.forename: Qiang
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.forename: Tami C
authors.initials: TC
authors.lastname: Bond
authors.forename: Veerabhadran
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Ramanathan
authors.forename: Aditsuda
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Jamroensan
authors.forename: Pallavi
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Marrapu
mesh_terms: D000336:Aerosols / Q000633:toxicity*; D000393:Air Pollutants / Q000032:analysis*; D001208:Asia; D002980:Climate; D004777:Environment; D004784:Environmental Monitoring / Q000379:methods*; D004787:Environmental Pollution; D005544:Forecasting; D005843:Geography; D017752:Greenhouse Effect; D013458:Sulfur Dioxide / Q000737:chemistry
chemical_list: D000336:Aerosols; D000393:Air Pollutants; D013458:Sulfur Dioxide