title: Early childhood refractive error and parental history of myopia as predictors of myopia.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To determine the utility of a child's first grade refractive error and parental history of myopia as predictors of myopia onset between the second and eighth grades.
  
  
  METHODS
  Subjects were nonmyopic children in the first grade who were enrolled in the Collaborative Longitudinal Evaluation of Ethnicity and Refractive Error (CLEERE) Study. Myopia was defined as -0.75 D or more myopia in both meridians (by cycloplegic autorefraction). The children were classified as having a high (versus low) risk of myopia with a cycloplegic sphere cutoff of +0.75 D or less (versus more) of hyperopia. Parental myopia was determined by a parent-completed survey. Discrete-time survival models predicted the risk of myopia.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Of the 1854 nonmyopic first graders, 21.3% were at high risk of myopia. More high-risk subjects had two myopic parents, 25.4% compared with 16.5% in the low-risk group (P < 0.0001). The low-risk survival function was similar regardless of the number of myopic parents. Among high-risk eighth graders, the survival probability was lower than in the low-risk group, decreasing with an increase in the number of myopic parents. The sensitivity and specificity of first grade refractive error with the number of myopic parents as predictors for myopia onset were 62.5% and 81.9%, respectively.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  First grade refractive error and the number of myopic parents can predict a child's risk of myopia; however, because the sensitivity of these factors is low, these two predictors may not be sufficient at this young age when a more accurate prediction of myopia onset is needed.
authors.affiliation: The Ohio State University College of Optometry, Columbus, Ohio 43210, USA.
authors.forename: Lisa A
authors.initials: LA
authors.lastname: Jones-Jordan
authors.forename: Loraine T
authors.initials: LT
authors.lastname: Sinnott
authors.forename: Ruth E
authors.initials: RE
authors.lastname: Manny
authors.forename: Susan A
authors.initials: SA
authors.lastname: Cotter
authors.forename: Robert N
authors.initials: RN
authors.lastname: Kleinstein
authors.forename: Donald O
authors.initials: DO
authors.lastname: Mutti
authors.forename: J Daniel
authors.initials: JD
authors.lastname: Twelker
authors.forename: Karla
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Zadnik
mesh_terms: D002648:Child; D016241:Child of Impaired Parents; D002675:Child, Preschool; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D009216:Myopia / Q000235:genetics*; D010290:Parents; D012029:Refraction, Ocular; D012030:Refractive Errors / Q000235:genetics*; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors