title: Natural history of compensated hepatitis C virus-related cirrhosis in HIV-infected patients.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To provide information about the incidence and predictors of liver decompensation and death due to liver failure in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients with compensated hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related cirrhosis.
  
  
  METHODS
  Prospective cohort study of 154 HIV-HCV-coinfected patients with a new diagnosis of Child-Pugh-Turcotte (CPT) class A compensated cirrhosis. We evaluated time from diagnosis to the first liver decompensation and death from liver disease, as well as predictors of these outcomes.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Thirty-six patients (23.4%) developed liver decompensation. The incidence of liver decompensation was 6.40 cases per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.18-9.38 cases per 100 person-years). Factors independently associated with liver decompensation were lack of HCV therapy (hazard ratio [HR], 3.38; 95% CI, 1.09-10.53; P = .035), baseline CD4 cell counts <or=300 cells/mm3 (HR, 2.12; 95% CI, 1.14-5.04; P = .021), CPT score 6 versus 5 (HR, 3.33; 95% CI, 1.39-7.69; P = .007), and a diagnosis of cirrhosis based on data other than biopsy or transient elastography (HR, 2.09; 95% CI, 1.05-4.16; P = .036 ). Fifteen patients (9.7%) died; 11 (73%) of these 15 died from liver disease (mortality due to liver failure, 2.44 deaths per 100 person-years; 95% CI, 1.21-4.36 deaths per 100 person-years). Hepatic encephalopathy as the first liver decompensation (HR, 20.67; 95% CI, 2.71-157.57; P = .003), baseline CD4 count <or=300/mm3 (HR, 0.24; 95% CI, 0.07-0.78; P = 0.17), and baseline CPT score 6 (HR, 4.50; 95% CI, 1.63-12.37; P = .004) were independently associated with liver-related death.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The incidence of clinical liver events in HIV-HCV-coinfected patients with CPT class A compensated cirrhosis is close to that previously reported in HCV-monoinfected patients. Lower baseline CD4 cell counts, lack of therapy against HCV, and higher CPT score are the factors related to the occurrence of clinical liver events. Minimal changes in CPT score have strong impact in the prognosis of this population.
authors.affiliation: Unit of Infectious Diseases, Hospital Universitario de Valme, Hospital Universitario Virgen del Rocío, Seville, Spain. japineda@telefonica.net
authors.forename: Juan A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Pineda
authors.forename: Manuela
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Aguilar-Guisado
authors.forename: Antonio
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Rivero
authors.forename: José A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Girón-González
authors.forename: Josefa
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Ruiz-Morales
authors.forename: Dolores
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Merino
authors.forename: María J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Ríos-Villegas
authors.forename: Juan
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Macías
authors.forename: Luis F
authors.initials: LF
authors.lastname: López-Cortés
authors.forename: Angela
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Camacho
authors.forename: Nicolás
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Merchante
authors.forename: José
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Del Valle
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000150:complications*; D019698:Hepatitis C, Chronic / Q000150:complications*; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008103:Liver Cirrhosis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000473:pathology* / Q000821:virology; D017093:Liver Failure / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000401:mortality; D008297:Male; D011379:Prognosis; D011446:Prospective Studies; D013997:Time Factors