Extension of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for long term dose assessment of high level nuclear waste disposal sites to uncertainties in the human behaviour.
Biosphere dose conversion factors are computed for the French high-level geological waste disposal concept and to illustrate the combined probabilistic and deterministic approach. Both (135)Cs and (79)Se are used as examples. Probabilistic analyses of the system considering all parameters, as well as physical and societal parameters independently, allow quantification of their mutual impact on overall uncertainty. As physical parameter uncertainties decreased, for example with the availability of further experimental and field data, the societal uncertainties, which are less easily constrained, particularly for the long term, become more and more significant. One also has to distinguish uncertainties impacting the low dose portion of a distribution from those impacting the high dose range, the latter having logically a greater impact in an assessment situation. The use of cumulative probability curves allows us to quantify probability variations as a function of the dose estimate, with the ratio of the probability variation (slope of the curve) indicative of uncertainties of different radionuclides. In the case of (135)Cs with better constrained physical parameters, the uncertainty in human behaviour is more significant, even in the high dose range, where they increase the probability of higher doses. For both radionuclides, uncertainties impact more strongly in the intermediate than in the high dose range. In an assessment context, the focus will be on probabilities of higher dose values. The probabilistic approach can furthermore be used to construct critical groups based on a predefined probability level and to ensure that critical groups cover the expected range of uncertainty.
Albrecht
Achim
A
Andra, Agence Nationale pour la Gestion des Déchets Radioactifs, National Radioactive Waste Management Agency, Parc de la Croix Blanche, 1/7 rue Jean-Monnet, 92298 Châtenay-Malabry Cedex, France. achim.albrecht@andra.fr
Miquel
Stéphan
S
D001519:Behavior; D002588:Cesium Radioisotopes / Q000032:analysis; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D011829:Radiation Dosage; D011834:Radiation Monitoring / Q000379:methods*; D011850:Radioactive Waste / Q000032:analysis*; D012037:Refuse Disposal; D012644:Selenium Radioisotopes / Q000032:analysis; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D035501:Uncertainty
D002588:Cesium Radioisotopes; D011850:Radioactive Waste; D012644:Selenium Radioisotopes