title: Predicting return to work in employees sick-listed due to minor mental disorders.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To investigate which factors predict return to work (RTW) after 3 and 6 months in employees sick-listed due to minor mental disorders.
  
  
  METHODS
  Seventy GPs recruited 194 subjects at the start of sick leave due to minor mental disorders. At baseline (T0), 3 and 6 months later (T1 and T2, respectively), subjects received a questionnaire and were interviewed by telephone. Using multivariate logistic regression analyses, we developed three prediction models to predict RTW at T1 and T2.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The RTW rates were 38% after 3 months (T1) and 61% after 6 months (T2). The main negative predictors of RTW at T1 were: (a) a duration of the problems of more than 3 months before sick leave; and (b) somatisation. The main negative predictors of RTW at T2 were: (a) a duration of the problems of more than 3 months before sick leave; (b) more than 3 weeks of sick leave before inclusion in the study; and (c) anxiety. The main negative predictors of RTW at T2 for those who had not resumed work at T1 were: (a) more than 3 weeks of sick leave before inclusion in the study; and (b) depression at T1. The predictive power of the models was moderate with AUC-values between 0.695 and 0.763.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The main predictors of RTW were associated with the severity of the problems. A long duration of the problems before the occurrence of sick leave and a long duration of sick leave before seeking help predict a relatively small probability to RTW within 3-6 months. High baseline somatisation and anxiety, and high depression after 3 months make the prospect even worse. Since these predictors are readily assessable with just a few questions and a symptom questionnaire, this opens the opportunity to select high-risk employees for a
authors.affiliation: Academic Research Centre for Health and Social Care (TRANZO), Tilburg University, Tilburg, The Netherlands. e.p.m.brouwers@uvt.nl
authors.forename: Evelien P M
authors.initials: EP
authors.lastname: Brouwers
authors.forename: Berend
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Terluin
authors.forename: Bea G
authors.initials: BG
authors.lastname: Tiemens
authors.forename: Peter F M
authors.initials: PF
authors.lastname: Verhaak
mesh_terms: D001007:Anxiety / Q000175:diagnosis*; D010054:Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale; D003863:Depression / Q000175:diagnosis*; D006801:Humans; D007407:Interviews as Topic; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D018582:Sick Leave