Modelling the burden of stroke in Finland until 2030.
BACKGROUND
It is well known that increasing age is the strongest risk factor of stroke. Therefore, it has been a common belief in many countries including Finland that the numbers of stroke patients will increase considerably during the next two decades because the population is rapidly ageing.


METHODS
The FINMONICA and FINSTROKE registers operated in Finland in the Kuopio area and city of Turku from 1983 to 1997. The results showed that the incidence, mortality and case fatality of stroke declined significantly during that period. Importantly, it was established that the trends in incidence and mortality were also declining among the elderly (>74 years). We used these results to create a model for the entire country. The model was based on the trends present in these registers from Turku and Kuopio area and age-specific population projections up to the year 2030 that were obtained from Statistics Finland.


RESULTS
In the year 2000, the number of new first stroke cases was estimated to be 11 500. If the declining trend were to level off totally after the year 2000, the number of new strokes would be 20 100 in the year 2030 due to the ageing of the population. It would be 12 100 if the trend continued as favourable as during the years 1983-1997.


CONCLUSIONS
Ageing of the population will not inevitably increase the burden of stroke in Finland if the present declining trends are maintained, but the annual number of cases will almost double if the incidence remains at the level of the year 2000.
Sivenius
J
J
University Hospital of Kuopio, Brain Research and Rehabilitation Center Neuron Kuopio, Finland.
Torppa
J
J
Tuomilehto
J
J
Immonen-Räihä
P
P
Kaarisalo
M
M
Sarti
C
C
Kuulasmaa
K
K
Mähönen
M
M
Lehtonen
A
A
Salomaa
V
V
D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000375:Aging / Q000473:pathology / Q000502:physiology*; D017281:Cost of Illness; D005260:Female; D005387:Finland / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D015993:Life Tables; D016014:Linear Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011159:Population Surveillance; D012307:Risk Factors; D012737:Sex Factors; D020521:Stroke / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control