title: Routine developmental screening at 5.5 and 7 years of age is not an efficient predictor of attention-deficit / hyperactivity disorder at age 10.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The aim of this study was to assess the efficiency of developmental screening for deficits in attention, motor control and perception or attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (DAMP/ADHD) at 5.5 and 7 years of age for diagnosing ADHD in grade 4.
  
  
  METHODS
  The study population consisted of 442 children from a cohort study of ADHD in 10-year olds in one municipality in Stockholm County. Sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value of a developmental screening at 5.5 and at 7 years of age for being diagnosed with ADHD at 10 years of age was calculated.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The sensitivity was 44%, the specificity 85% and the positive predictive value for having a diagnosis of pervasive ADHD in 4th grade was 15%, when at least two deviations in nine items was used as the cut-off point in 5.5-year screening at Child Health Centres (CHCs). With a cut-off score of at least two deviations in four items rated by parents or and teachers in 1st grade, these estimates were 58%, 81% and 15% respectively.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This study demonstrates that developmental screening for DAMP/ADHD at 5.5 and 7 years of age does not identify children who are diagnosed with ADHD in grade 4 with a high degree of selectivity.
authors.affiliation: Department of Women's and Children's Health, Section for Paediatrics, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden. kirsten.holmberg@kbh.uu.se
authors.forename: Kirsten
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Holmberg
authors.forename: Claes
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Sundelin
authors.forename: Anders
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Hjern
mesh_terms: D001289:Attention Deficit Disorder with Hyperactivity / Q000175:diagnosis*; D002648:Child; D002653:Child Behavior Disorders / Q000175:diagnosis*; D002657:Child Development; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008403:Mass Screening / Q000379:methods*; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D015397:Program Evaluation; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D013548:Sweden