Predicting morbidity and mortality after hepatic resection in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: the role of Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score.
BACKGROUND
The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score is currently used as a disease severity index of cirrhotic patients awaiting liver transplantation. This study evaluated the usefulness of the MELD score in predicting mortality and morbidity of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing hepatic resection.


METHODS
The study cohort consisted of 1,017 patients who underwent hepatic resection for HCC between 1991 and 2005. Patient variables were examined by univariate and multivariate analyses to identify risk factors for morbidity and mortality. Accuracy in predicting mortality was assessed with the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) analysis.


RESULTS
The morbidity and mortality rates were 30.7% and 1.9%, respectively. Age, liver cirrhosis, operation time, and MELD score were risk factors for mortality, whereas indocyanine green retention rate at 15-min value, operation time, blood loss, and Child-Turcotte-Pugh score were risk factors for morbidity. Patients with MELD score >8 had higher mortality (4.0% vs. 0.6%, p = 0.004) and higher liver-related morbidities (16.1% vs. 4.3%, p < 0.001), including massive ascites, intra-abdominal hemorrhage, and hepatic failure, compared with patients with MELD score <6. High MELD score also was related to longer postoperative hospital stay (score >8, 14.5 days vs. score <6, 12.6 days, p = 0.015). The AUC for MELD score as a predictor of mortality was 0.718, indicating high clinical usefulness.


CONCLUSIONS
The MELD score relates with mortality and liver-related morbidities in HCC patients who undergo hepatic resection. A MELD score >8 represents the trigger for intensive treatment to improve patient outcome.
Hsu
Kuang-Yu
KY
Division of General Surgery, Department of Surgery, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, and College of Medicine, National Yang-Ming University, No. 201, Sec 2, Taiwan, ROC.
Chau
Gar-Yang
GY
Lui
Wing-Yiu
WY
Tsay
Shyh-Haw
SH
King
Kuang-Liang
KL
Wu
Chew-Wun
CW
D000368:Aged; D006528:Carcinoma, Hepatocellular / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality / Q000601:surgery*; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D017093:Liver Failure / Q000209:etiology / Q000401:mortality / Q000601:surgery; D008113:Liver Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality / Q000601:surgery*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011379:Prognosis; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D012720:Severity of Illness Index