Prediction of significant liver fibrosis in kidney transplant patients with chronic hepatitis C virus infection: the TX-3 index.
HCV infection is highly prevalent among kidney transplant (KT) recipients. The natural history and management of these patients are controversial. We sought to assess the diagnostic value of noninvasive markers of liver fibrosis in KT HCV-infected patients. This cross-sectional study included 102 KT individuals with positive HCV-RNA. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were used to identify variables associated with significant fibrosis (METAVIR > or = F2). Significant fibrosis was observed in 20 patients (20%). Time after transplantation, AST level, and platelet count were identified as independent predictors of significant fibrosis. Based on the regression model, a simplified index was devised. The AUROC for the TX-3 model was 0.867 +/- 0.081 (0.909, when adjusted by DANA). Values < or =4.0 of TX-3 showed a NPV of 97% and scores >9.6 exhibited a PPV of 71%. If biopsy indication was restricted to scores in the intermediate range of TX-3, this could have been correctly avoided in 68% of cases. The APRI score provided a correct diagnosis in only 47 individuals (46%) and exhibited lower diagnostic indices for both cutoffs, as compared to the TX-3 index. Comparison of AUROCs showed a trend towards superior diagnostic accuracy for TX-3 over APRI, although the difference between AUROCs did not reach statistical significance (0.867 +/- 0.053 vs 0.762 +/- 0.066, respectively, P = 0.064). In conclusion, significant liver fibrosis can be reliably predicted in KT HCV-infected subjects by simple and widely available parameters. If additional studies confirm our results, this model might obviate the requirement for a liver biopsy in a significant proportion of those patients.
Schiavon
L L
LL
Division of Gastroenterology, Hepatitis Section, Federal University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil. leo-jf@uol.com.br
Carvalho-Filho
R J
RJ
Narciso-Schiavon
J L
JL
Pinheiro
S R
SR
Barbosa
D V
DV
Lanzoni
V P
VP
Ferraz
M L G
ML
Silva
A E B
AE
D000328:Adult; D001219:Aspartate Aminotransferases / Q000097:blood; D015415:Biomarkers; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D005260:Female; D019698:Hepatitis C, Chronic / Q000150:complications*; D006801:Humans; D016030:Kidney Transplantation / Q000009:adverse effects*; D008103:Liver Cirrhosis / Q000175:diagnosis*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D010976:Platelet Count; D011379:Prognosis; D012367:RNA, Viral / Q000097:blood; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity
D015415:Biomarkers; D012367:RNA, Viral; D001219:Aspartate Aminotransferases