Intercontinental impacts of ozone pollution on human mortality.
Ozone exposure is associated with negative health impacts, including premature mortality. Observations and modeling studies demonstrate that emissions from one continent influence ozone air quality over other continents. We estimate the premature mortalities avoided from surface ozone decreases obtained via combined 20% reductions of anthropogenic nitrogen oxide, nonmethane volatile organic compound, and carbon monoxide emissions in North America (NA), EastAsia (EA), South Asia (SA), and Europe (EU). We use estimates of ozone responses to these emission changes from several atmospheric chemical transportmodels combined with a health impactfunction. Foreign emission reductions contribute approximately 30%, 30%, 20%, and >50% of the mortalities avoided by reducing precursor emissions in all regions together in NA, EA, SA and EU, respectively. Reducing emissions in NA and EU avoids more mortalities outside the source region than within, owing in part to larger populations in foreign regions. Lowering the global methane abundance by 20% reduces mortality mostin SA,followed by EU, EA, and NA. For some source-receptor pairs, there is greater uncertainty in our estimated avoided mortalities associated with the modeled ozone responses to emission changes than with the health impact function parameters.
Anenberg
Susan Casper
SC
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA.
West
I Jason
IJ
Fiore
Arlene M
AM
Jaffe
Daniel A
DA
Prather
Michael J
MJ
Bergmann
Daniel
D
Cuvelier
Kees
K
Dentener
Frank J
FJ
Duncan
Bryan N
BN
Gauss
Michael
M
Hess
Peter
P
Jonson
Jan Eiof
JE
Lupu
Alexandru
A
Mackenzie
Ian A
IA
Marmer
Elina
E
Park
Rokjin J
RJ
Sanderson
Michael G
MG
Schultz
Martin
M
Shindell
Drew T
DT
Szopa
Sophie
S
Vivanco
Marta Garcia
MG
Wild
Oliver
O
Zeng
Guang
G
D000393:Air Pollutants / Q000032:analysis / Q000633:toxicity*; D001208:Asia / Q000453:epidemiology; D003198:Computer Simulation; D004781:Environmental Exposure / Q000032:analysis* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005060:Europe / Q000453:epidemiology; D006331:Heart Diseases / Q000401:mortality; D006801:Humans; D008171:Lung Diseases / Q000401:mortality; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009026:Mortality / Q000639:trends*; D009656:North America / Q000453:epidemiology; D010126:Ozone / Q000032:analysis / Q000633:toxicity*; D011156:Population Density; D012621:Seasons
D000393:Air Pollutants; D010126:Ozone