Stochastic modeling of the transmission of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in the region of Valencia, Spain.
In this paper, we study the dynamics of the transmission of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in the population using stochastic models. The stochastic models are developed introducing stochastic perturbations on the demographic parameter as well as on the transmission rate of the RSV. Numerical simulations of the deterministic and stochastic models are performed in order to understand the effect of fluctuating birth rate and transmission rate of the RSV on the population dynamics. The numerical solutions of stochastic models are calculated using Euler-Maruyama and Milstein schemes, and confidence intervals for stochastic solutions are given using Monte-Carlo method. Analysis of the numerical results reveals that perturbations on the transmission rate are more decisive in the dynamics of RSV than perturbations on demographic parameters. In addition, the stochastic models show the advantage of reproducing more effectively the noisy RSV hospitalization data. It is concluded that these stochastic models are a viable option to provide a realistic modeling of the RSV dynamics on the population.
Arenas
Abraham J
AJ
Departamento de Matemáticas y Estadística, Universidad de Córdoba, Montería, Colombia. abarta@doctor.upv.es
González-Parra
Gilberto
G
Moraño
Jose-A
JA
D003198:Computer Simulation; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D004198:Disease Susceptibility / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000821:virology; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008954:Models, Biological; D015233:Models, Statistical; D018357:Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission* / Q000821:virology*; D012136:Respiratory Syncytial Viruses / Q000472:pathogenicity*; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D013030:Spain / Q000453:epidemiology; D013269:Stochastic Processes