Network analysis of Italian cattle trade patterns and evaluation of risks for potential disease spread.
Livestock movement data represent a valuable source of information to understand the pattern of contacts between premises which may determine the spread of diseases. Social network analysis techniques have been used to analyse the movement patterns of cattle in Italy in 2007. A description of the structure of the Italian cattle industry is presented and the main trade flows and the relations between premises in relation to the potential spread of cattle diseases are investigated. Epidemic simulations have been carried out on the network build out of movement data using a network-based meta-population model. The simulations show the influence of the network structure on the dynamics and size of a hypothetic epidemic and give useful indications on the effects of targeted removal of nodes based on the centrality of premises within the network of animal movements.
European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Protection and Security of Citizen, Ispra, VA, Italy. fabrizio.natale@jrc.it
Fabrizio
F
Natale
Armando
A
Giovannini
Lara
L
Savini
Diana
D
Palma
Luigi
L
Possenti
Gianluca
G
Fiore
Paolo
P
Calistri
D000818:Animals; D002417:Cattle; D002418:Cattle Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission*; D003141:Communicable Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission / Q000662:veterinary*; D003198:Computer Simulation; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000662:veterinary*; D007558:Italy / Q000453:epidemiology; D008390:Markov Chains; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009010:Monte Carlo Method