Estimating influenza-associated deaths in the United States.
Most estimates of US deaths associated with influenza circulation have been similar despite the use of different approaches. However, a recently published estimate suggested that previous estimates substantially overestimated deaths associated with influenza, and concluded that substantial numbers of deaths during a future pandemic could be prevented because of improvements in medical care. We reviewed the data sources and methods used to estimate influenza-associated deaths. We suggest that discrepancies between the recent estimate and previous estimates of the number of influenza-associated deaths are attributable primarily to the use of different outcomes and methods. We also believe that secondary bacterial infections will likely result in substantial morbidity and mortality during a future influenza pandemic, despite medical progress.
Thompson
William W
WW
Influenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, MS A32, 1600 Clifton Rd NE, Atlanta, GA 30333, USA. wct2@cdc.gov
Moore
Matthew R
MR
Weintraub
Eric
E
Cheng
Po-Yung
PY
Jin
Xiaoping
X
Bridges
Carolyn B
CB
Bresee
Joseph S
JS
Shay
David K
DK
D002423:Cause of Death; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000150:complications / Q000401:mortality*; D015233:Models, Statistical; D018410:Pneumonia, Bacterial / Q000150:complications / Q000401:mortality*; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology