Home educating in an extended family culture and aging society may fare best during a pandemic.
Large cities can contain populations that move rapidly from one section to another in an efficient transportation network. An emerging air-borne or contact based pathogen could use these transportation routes to rapidly spread an infection throughout an entire population in a short time. Further, in many developed countries, the aging population is increasing. The family structure in these societies may also affect the course of a disease. To help understand the impact of an epidemic on family structure in a networked population, an individual based computer model that randomly generates networked cities with a specified range of population and disease characteristics and individual schedules, infectivity, transmission and hygiene factors was developed. Several salient issues emerged. First, a city of highly active individuals may in fact diminish the number of fatalities because the average duration of the interactions between agents is reduced. Second, home schooling can significantly improve survival because the institutional clustering of weak individuals is minimized. Third, the worst scenario for an aging population is the nuclear family where the aged population is confined to large housing facilities. Naturally, hygiene is the first barrier to infection. The results suggest that societies where extended families and small groups manage most of their own affairs may also be the most suitable for defense against a pandemic. This may prove applicable in city planning and policy making.
Research Institute, International Medical Center of Japan, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, Japan. dawson@bi.a.u-tokyo.ac.jp
Wayne
W
Dawson
Kenji
K
Yamamoto
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000375:Aging; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D003198:Computer Simulation; D003466:Cultural Characteristics; D004189:Disaster Planning / Q000379:methods*; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D005190:Family; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008875:Middle Aged; D010353:Patient Education as Topic / Q000379:methods*; D011050:Policy Making; D014186:Transportation