Estimating influenza-associated deaths in the United States.
Most estimates of US deaths associated with influenza circulation have been similar despite the use of different approaches. However, a recently published estimate suggested that previous estimates substantially overestimated deaths associated with influenza, and concluded that substantial numbers of deaths during a future pandemic could be prevented because of improvements in medical care. We reviewed the data sources and methods used to estimate influenza-associated deaths. We suggest that discrepancies between the recent estimate and previous estimates of the number of influenza-associated deaths are attributable primarily to the use of different outcomes and methods. We also believe that secondary bacterial infections will likely result in substantial morbidity and mortality during a future influenza pandemic, despite medical progress.
Influenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, MS A32, 1600 Clifton Rd NE, Atlanta, GA 30333, USA. wct2@cdc.gov
William W
WW
Thompson
Matthew R
MR
Moore
Eric
E
Weintraub
Po-Yung
PY
Cheng
Xiaoping
X
Jin
Carolyn B
CB
Bridges
Joseph S
JS
Bresee
David K
DK
Shay
D002423:Cause of Death; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000150:complications / Q000401:mortality*; D015233:Models, Statistical; D018410:Pneumonia, Bacterial / Q000150:complications / Q000401:mortality*; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology