title: Reliable data on 5- and 10-year survival provide accurate estimates of 15-year survival in estrogen receptor-positive early-stage breast cancer.
abstract: There are few studies of model-based survival projections using early empirical results for estimating long-term survival. Utilizing Early Breast Cancer Trialists' Collaborative Group (EBCTCG) data, a Markov model was generated to compare empirical results with those modeled beyond the empirical result time horizon in estrogen receptor (ER)-positive early-stage breast cancer (ESBC). Modeling 15-year survival based on 5- and 10-year EBCTCG data resulted in an average error estimate in breast cancer mortality of 0.75% [range -0.83 to 2.19%]. Although modeling life expectancy differences ranged from an underestimate of -7.93% to an overestimate of 12.64%, over the span of 15 years this corresponded to a loss of 18 days or a gain of 40 days of life. Reliable early survival data may be used to generate models that accurately estimate 15-year survival in ER-positive ESBC. Whether early survival data can be employed over the lifetime horizon remains to be demonstrated.
authors.affiliation: Division of Medical Oncology, Duke University School of Medicine and the Duke Comprehensive Cancer Center, 2424 Erwin Road, Suite 205, Durham NC, 27705, USA.
authors.forename: Christina I
authors.initials: CI
authors.lastname: Herold
authors.forename: Benjamin
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Djulbegovic
authors.forename: Iztok
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Hozo
authors.forename: Gary H
authors.initials: GH
authors.lastname: Lyman
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D018931:Antineoplastic Agents, Hormonal / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D001943:Breast Neoplasms / Q000188:drug therapy* / Q000401:mortality*; D016022:Case-Control Studies; D017024:Chemotherapy, Adjuvant; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008017:Life Expectancy; D008390:Markov Chains; D008875:Middle Aged; D009376:Neoplasms, Hormone-Dependent / Q000188:drug therapy* / Q000401:mortality*; D011960:Receptors, Estrogen / Q000378:metabolism*; D015996:Survival Rate; D013629:Tamoxifen / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology
chemical_list: D018931:Antineoplastic Agents, Hormonal; D011960:Receptors, Estrogen; D013629:Tamoxifen