Projected Impact of the new rotavirus vaccination program on hospitalizations for gastroenteritis and rotavirus disease among US children <5 years of age during 2006-2015.
BACKGROUND
Rotavirus causes approximately one-third to one-half (55,000-70,000 hospitalizations per year) of hospitalizations for acute gastroenteritis (AGE) among US children <5 years of age. We forecasted the potential reduction in the number of hospitalizations for rotavirus disease and AGE in US children during 2006-2015 as a result of the new rotavirus vaccine introduced in 2006.


METHODS
The mean number of hospitalizations for AGE by calendar month among US children was determined using the National Hospital Discharge Survey from the period 1993-2005. From these baseline prevaccine estimates, we forecasted the effect of vaccine in reducing the number of hospitalizations for rotavirus disease and AGE during 2006-2015 with use of estimates of vaccine effectiveness and uptake.


RESULTS
During 2006-2015, approximately 313,000 (45%) of an estimated 703,190 hospitalizations for rotavirus disease would be directly prevented by vaccination. A significant reduction in the number of hospitalizations for AGE should be detectable among infants aged 0-11 months during the first quarter of 2009, followed by children aged 12-23 months during 2010, and all children <5 years of age during 2011.


CONCLUSIONS
Vaccination is expected to substantially reduce the health burden of hospitalizations for rotavirus disease among US children during 2006-2015, and the impact of vaccination based on direct protective effects alone was expected to first occur for hospitalizations for AGE among infants during winter 2009.
Curns
Aaron T
AT
National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30329, USA. agc8@cdc.gov
Coffin
Fanny
F
Glasser
John W
JW
Glass
Roger I
RI
Parashar
Umesh D
UD
D002675:Child, Preschool; D005759:Gastroenteritis / Q000517:prevention & control*; D006760:Hospitalization / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D017589:Immunization Programs; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012400:Rotavirus Infections / Q000517:prevention & control*; D022243:Rotavirus Vaccines / Q000276:immunology*; D013997:Time Factors; D014611:Vaccination
D022243:Rotavirus Vaccines