title: Investment in antiviral drugs: a real options approach.
abstract: Real options analysis is a promising approach to model investment under uncertainty. We employ this approach to value stockpiling of antiviral drugs as a precautionary measure against a possible influenza pandemic. Modifications of the real options approach to include risk attitude and deviations from expected utility are presented. We show that risk aversion counteracts the tendency to delay investment for this case of precautionary investment, which is in contrast to earlier applications of risk aversion to real options analysis. Moreover, we provide a numerical example using real world data and discuss the implications of real options analysis for health policy. Suggestions for further extensions of the model and a comparison with the expected value of information analysis are put forward.
authors.affiliation: Center for Prevention and Health Services Research, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Arthur E
authors.initials: AE
authors.lastname: Attema
authors.forename: Anna K
authors.initials: AK
authors.lastname: Lugnér
authors.forename: Talitha L
authors.initials: TL
authors.lastname: Feenstra
mesh_terms: D000998:Antiviral Agents / Q000191:economics* / Q000600:supply & distribution* / Q000627:therapeutic use; D003365:Costs and Cost Analysis; D006296:Health Services / Q000191:economics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000188:drug therapy / Q000191:economics*; D018803:Models, Economic; D058873:Pandemics / Q000191:economics*; D018570:Risk Assessment; D013997:Time Factors; D035501:Uncertainty
chemical_list: D000998:Antiviral Agents