[Hamburger consumption patterns and exposure assessment for verocytotoxigenic Escherichia coli (VTEC): simulation model].
A quantitative risk assessment was developed for verocytotoxigenic Escherichia coli (VTEC) associated with hamburger consumption. The assessment (simulation model) considers the distribution, storage and consumption patterns of hamburgers. The prevalence and concentration of VTEC were modelled at various stages along the agri-food beef production system using input derived from Argentinean data, whenever possible. The model predicted an infection risk of 4.45 x 10(-4) per meal for adults. The risk values obtained for children were 2.6 x 10(-4), 1.38 x 10(-5) and 4.54 x 10(-7) for infection, Hemolytic Uremic Syndrome (HUS) and mortality, respectively. The risk of infection and HUS was positively correlated with bacterial concentration in meat (r = 0.664). There was a negative association between homemade hamburgers (r = -0.116) and the risk of illness; however this association has been considered due to differences between retail and domiciliary storage systems (r = -0.567) and not because of the intrinsic characteristics of the product. The most sensitive points of the production system were identified through the risk assessment, therefore, these can be utilized as a basis to apply different risk management policies in public health.
Signorini
M L
ML
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientificas y Técnicas, Deparfamento de Epidemiología y Enfermedades Infecciosas, Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria EEA Rafaela, Argentina. marcelo.signorini@gmail.com
Marín
V
V
Quinteros
C
C
Tarabla
H
H
D000822:Animal Husbandry; D000818:Animals; D001118:Argentina / Q000453:epidemiology; D002417:Cattle / Q000382:microbiology*; D002675:Child, Preschool; D003198:Computer Simulation; D015925:Cryopreservation; D004781:Environmental Exposure; D004927:Escherichia coli Infections / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology; D005243:Feces / Q000382:microbiology; D005247:Feeding Behavior; D005511:Food Handling; D005519:Food Preservation; D006463:Hemolytic-Uremic Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D008461:Meat Products / Q000382:microbiology*; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D015995:Prevalence; D012034:Refrigeration; D018570:Risk Assessment; D054323:Shiga-Toxigenic Escherichia coli / Q000302:isolation & purification