title: Risk factors for progression to end-stage renal disease in children with posterior urethral valves.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To identify the variables which affect long-term renal outcome in children with posterior urethral valves (PUV).
  
  
  METHODS
  Retrospective analysis of 260 children with PUV who underwent ablation of valves in 1992-2008 at our tertiary care center. The following risk factors for progression to end-stage renal disease (ESRD) were analyzed: nadir serum creatinine greater than 1.0mg/dl, bilateral grade 3 or higher VUR at diagnosis, recurrent febrile UTIs, and severe bladder dysfunction. Patients were divided into two groups: those who developed ESRD (group 1) and those who did not (group 2).
  
  
  RESULTS
  Forty (17.62%) patients had nadir serum creatinine >1mg/dl. At time of initial presentation, high-grade VUR was seen in 63.1% and 33.5% of groups 1 and 2, respectively (P=0.002). Overall, 77 (34%) of the boys developed breakthrough urinary tract infections: 37.03% and 33.5% in groups 1 and 2, respectively (P=1). Fifty-nine (26%) patients were found to have severe bladder dysfunction: 77.8% and 19% in groups 1 and 2, respectively (P<0.0001). Twenty-seven (11.89%) patients progressed to ESRD, at mean age of 11.21 years (5-16). On univariate analysis, the risk-predicting variables were: nadir serum creatinine value greater than 1mg/dl (P<0.0001), bilateral high-grade VUR (P=0.002) and severe bladder dysfunction (P<0.0001). On multivariate logistic regression analysis, nadir serum creatinine greater than 1mg/dl (OR 23.79; CI 8.20-69.05) and severe bladder dysfunction (OR 5.67; CI 1.90-16.93) were found to be independent risk factors predictive of ultimate progression to ESRD.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Nadir serum creatinine and bladder dysfunction are the main factors affecting long-term renal outcome in cases of PUV. Early identification and treatment of bladder dysfunction may thus be beneficial.
authors.affiliation: Department of Urology and Renal Transplantation, Sanjay Gandhi Postgraduate Institute of Medical Sciences, Raibreli Road, Lucknow-U.P. 226014, India. ansarimsa@hotmail.com
authors.forename: M S
authors.initials: MS
authors.lastname: Ansari
authors.forename: Anil
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Gulia
authors.forename: Aneesh
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Srivastava
authors.forename: Rakesh
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Kapoor
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D017115:Catheter Ablation / Q000379:methods*; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D003404:Creatinine / Q000097:blood; D018450:Disease Progression; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D007676:Kidney Failure, Chronic / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000209:etiology* / Q000517:prevention & control; D008297:Male; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D013997:Time Factors; D016896:Treatment Outcome; D014517:Ureteral Obstruction / Q000150:complications* / Q000151:congenital / Q000601:surgery; D014521:Urethra / Q000002:abnormalities* / Q000601:surgery; D014547:Urinary Diversion / Q000379:methods*; D014563:Urodynamics
chemical_list: D003404:Creatinine