title: A new risk assessment method for water quality degradation in harbour domains, using hydrodynamic models.
abstract: This contribution presents a method for assessing the risk of water degradation in harbour domains. The method describes a normalized Index of Risk, ranging from 0 to 1, which determines the risk of water degradation due to a pollution event. A branch-decision scheme of decision-making theories was implemented in order to obtain this index. This method evaluates the cost of each decision as a function of the vulnerability, proximity and toxicity of the potential contaminant. A novel feature of this method is that the risk is defined by considering the physical behaviour of the harbour (i.e. water circulation patterns). Regions where water residence time is high are considered more vulnerable to pollutant releases. This method could be implemented from an operational perspective, in which case an oceanographic operational system could be used to obtain current forecasts which in turn would be used to forecast risk maps.
authors.affiliation: Laboratori d'Enginyeria Marítima (LIM), Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Campus Nord, 08034 Barcelona, Spain. manel.grifoll@upc.edu
authors.forename: Manel
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Grifoll
authors.forename: Gabriel
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Jordà
authors.forename: Angel
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Borja
authors.forename: Manuel
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Espino
mesh_terms: D003657:Decision Making; D004784:Environmental Monitoring / Q000379:methods*; D005843:Geography; D008522:Mediterranean Sea; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods; D012623:Seawater / Q000032:analysis* / Q000737:chemistry*; D013030:Spain; D014872:Water Movements; D014873:Water Pollutants / Q000032:analysis / Q000633:toxicity; D014881:Water Supply / Q000032:analysis / Q000592:standards
chemical_list: D014873:Water Pollutants