A theory of utility conditionals: Paralogical reasoning from decision-theoretic leakage.
Many "if p, then q" conditionals have decision-theoretic features, such as antecedents or consequents that relate to the utility functions of various agents. These decision-theoretic features leak into reasoning processes, resulting in various paralogical conclusions. The theory of utility conditionals offers a unified account of the various forms that this phenomenon can take. The theory is built on 2 main components: (1) a representational tool (the utility grid), which summarizes in compact form the decision-theoretic features of a conditional, and (2) a set of folk axioms of decision, which reflect reasoners' beliefs about the way most agents make their decisions. Applying the folk axioms to the utility grid of a conditional allows for the systematic prediction of the paralogical conclusions invited by the utility grid's decision-theoretic features. The theory of utility conditionals significantly extends the scope of current theories of conditional inference and moves reasoning research toward a greater integration with decision-making research.
Cognition, Langues, Langage et Ergonomie (CLLE), Centre national de la recherche scientifique, Paris, France. bonnefon@univ-tlse2.fr
Jean-François
JF
Bonnefon
D001245:Association Learning; D003657:Decision Making; D003662:Decision Theory; D004467:Economics; D006801:Humans; D008128:Logic; D009042:Motivation; D011340:Problem Solving; D011578:Psycholinguistics; D013067:Speech Perception; D014705:Verbal Behavior