An approach to the assessment of risk from chronic radiation to populations of European lobster, Homarus gammarus (L.).
The basic principles underlying a four-discrete age group, logistic, growth model for the European lobster Homarus gammarus are presented and discussed at proof-of-concept level. The model considers reproduction, removal by predation, natural death, fishing, radiation and migration. Non-stochastic effects of chronic low linear energy transfer (LET) radiation are modelled with emphasis on (99)Tc, using three endpoints: repairable radiation damage, impairment of reproductive ability and, at higher dose rates, mortality. An allometric approach for the calculation of LD(50/30) as a function of the mass of each life stage is used in model calibration. The model predicts that at a dose rate of 1 Gy day(-1), lobster population reproduction and survival become severely compromised, leading eventually to population extinction. At 0.01 Gy day(-1), the survival rate of an isolated population is reduced by 10%, mainly through loss of fecundity, comparable to natural migration losses. Fishing is the main ecological stress and only dose rates in the range 0.03-0.1 Gy day(-1) can achieve discernible effects above it. On the balance of radiation and other ecological stresses, a benchmark value of 0.01 Gy day(-1) is proposed for the protection of lobster populations. This value appears consistent with available information on radiation effects in wildlife.
Vives i Batlle
Jordi
J
Westlakes Scientific Consulting Ltd., The Princess Royal Building, Westlakes Science and Technology Park, Moor Row, Cumbria, CA24 3LN, UK. jordi.vives@westlakes.ac.uk
Wilson
R C
RC
Watts
S J
SJ
McDonald
P
P
Jones
S R
SR
Vives-Lynch
S M
SM
Craze
A
A
D000367:Age Factors; D025041:Animal Migration; D000818:Animals; D004307:Dose-Response Relationship, Radiation; D017753:Ecosystem; D004784:Environmental Monitoring; D005260:Female; D005298:Fertility / Q000528:radiation effects; D007700:Kinetics; D008297:Male; D008954:Models, Biological; D008121:Nephropidae / Q000502:physiology / Q000528:radiation effects*; D011829:Radiation Dosage; D012098:Reproduction / Q000528:radiation effects; D018570:Risk Assessment; D013997:Time Factors