Fine-scale identification of the most likely source of a human plague infection.
We describe an analytic approach to provide fine-scale discrimination among multiple infection source hypotheses. This approach uses mutation-rate data for rapidly evolving multiple locus variable-number tandem repeat loci in probabilistic models to identify the most likely source. We illustrate the utility of this approach using data from a North American human plague investigation.
Colman
Rebecca E
RE
Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona 86011-5640, USA.
Vogler
Amy J
AJ
Lowell
Jennifer L
JL
Gage
Kenneth L
KL
Morway
Christina
C
Reynolds
Pamela J
PJ
Ettestad
Paul
P
Keim
Paul
P
Kosoy
Michael Y
MY
Wagner
David M
DM
D019143:Evolution, Molecular; D005838:Genotype; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D017720:Molecular Epidemiology; D009154:Mutation; D009516:New Mexico / Q000453:epidemiology; D010930:Plague / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000382:microbiology; D015010:Yersinia pestis / Q000235:genetics* / Q000302:isolation & purification