The contribution of family planning towards the prevention of vertical HIV transmission in Uganda.
BACKGROUND
Uganda has one of the highest total fertility rates (TFR) worldwide. We compared the effects of antiretroviral (ARV) prophylaxis for the prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission (PMTCT) to that of existing family planning (FP) use and estimated the burden of pediatric HIV disease due to unwanted fertility.


RESULTS
Using the demographic software Spectrum, a baseline mathematical projection to estimate the current pediatric HIV burden in Uganda was compared to three hypothetical projections: 1) without ARV-PMTCT (to estimate the effect of ARV-PMTCT), 2) without contraception (effect of existing FP use), 3) without unwanted fertility (effect of unmet FP needs). Key input parameters included HIV prevalence, ARV-PMTCT uptake, MTCT probabilities, and TFR. We estimate that in 2007, an estimated 25,000 vertical infections and 17,000 pediatric AIDS deaths occurred (baseline projection). Existing ARV-PMTCT likely averted 8.1% of infections and 8.5% of deaths. FP use likely averted 19.7% of infections and 13.1% of deaths. Unwanted fertility accounted for 21.3% of infections and 13.4% of deaths. During 2008-2012, an estimated 131,000 vertical infections and 71,000 pediatric AIDS deaths will occur. The projected scale up of ARV-PMTCT (from 39%-57%) may avert 18.1% of infections and 24.5% of deaths. Projected FP use may avert 21.6% of infections and 18.5% of deaths. Unwanted fertility will account for 24.5% of infections and 19.8% of deaths.


CONCLUSIONS
Existing FP use contributes as much or more than ARV-PMTCT in mitigating pediatric HIV in Uganda. Expanding FP services can substantially contribute towards PMTCT.
Hladik
Wolfgang
W
Global AIDS Program, National Center for HIV, Hepatitis, STD & TB Prevention, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Entebbe, Uganda. wfh3@cdc.gov
Stover
John
J
Esiru
Godfrey
G
Harper
Malayah
M
Tappero
Jordan
J
D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000635:transmission; D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D044966:Anti-Retroviral Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use; D005260:Female; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000635:transmission*; D006801:Humans; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D018445:Infectious Disease Transmission, Vertical / Q000517:prevention & control*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011247:Pregnancy; D011251:Pregnancy Complications, Infectious / Q000188:drug therapy / Q000517:prevention & control; D015995:Prevalence; D012984:Software; D014454:Uganda
D044966:Anti-Retroviral Agents