title: A simulation of the comparative long-term effectiveness of liraglutide and glimepiride monotherapies in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To project and compare long-term outcomes of morbidity and mortality, and costs of complications of type 2 diabetes mellitus from a randomized controlled trial of patients receiving liraglutide versus glimepiride monotherapy.
  
  
  METHODS
  Mathematic simulation using the validated Center for Outcomes Research (CORE) Diabetes Model, calibrated to baseline patient characteristics from a short-term, randomized, controlled trial of liraglutide and glimepiride monotherapies (Liraglutide Effect and Action in Diabetes [LEAD]-3 trial) and using data from long-term outcomes studies.
  
  
  METHODS
  Simulated routine clinical practice.
  
  
  METHODS
  Seven hundred forty-six patients with type 2 diabetes who participated in the LEAD-3 trial, and three hypothetical cohorts of 5000 patients each that were based on the baseline characteristics of the patients in the LEAD-3 trial. The patients in the LEAD-3 trial were randomly assigned to monotherapy with liraglutide 1.2 mg/day (251 patients), liraglutide 1.8 mg/day (247 patients), or glimepiride 8 mg/day (248 patients).
  
  
  RESULTS
  The impact of the three treatments for type 2 diabetes on survival and cumulative incidence of cardiovascular, ocular, or renal events and costs were estimated at three time periods: 10, 20, and 30 years. Simulations predicted improved survival for liraglutide 1.8 and 1.2 mg at all three time points compared with glimepiride. Survival benefits were greatest after 30 years of follow-up: 16.5%, 13.6%, and 7.3%, respectively. The frequency of nonfatal renal and ocular events was lower for both liraglutide doses than for glimepiride. The rate of neuropathies leading to first or recurrent amputation was higher for glimepiride compared with both liraglutide doses. The average cumulative cost/patient was higher for glimepiride compared with liraglutide 1.2 mg and liraglutide 1.8 mg.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  With use of the CORE Diabetes Model and data from the LEAD-3 trial, long-term projected survival, diabetes complications, and costs favored liraglutide 1.2- and 1.8-mg monotherapies compared with glimepiride in the treatment of type 2 diabetes.
authors.affiliation: Pharmaceutical Outcomes Research and Policy Program, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA. sdsull@u.washington.edu
authors.forename: Sean D
authors.initials: SD
authors.lastname: Sullivan
authors.forename: Rafael
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Alfonso-Cristancho
authors.forename: Chris
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Conner
authors.forename: Mette
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Hammer
authors.forename: Lawrence
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Blonde
mesh_terms: D001786:Blood Glucose / Q000187:drug effects; D001794:Blood Pressure / Q000187:drug effects; D015331:Cohort Studies; D003198:Computer Simulation; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000097:blood / Q000188:drug therapy* / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000401:mortality; D004305:Dose-Response Relationship, Drug; D004311:Double-Blind Method; D004359:Drug Therapy, Combination; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D052216:Glucagon-Like Peptide 1 / Q000009:adverse effects / Q000031:analogs & derivatives* / Q000191:economics / Q000627:therapeutic use; D006442:Glycated Hemoglobin / Q000378:metabolism; D006801:Humans; D007004:Hypoglycemic Agents / Q000009:adverse effects / Q000191:economics / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D000069450:Liraglutide; D008297:Male; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009017:Morbidity; D013453:Sulfonylurea Compounds / Q000009:adverse effects / Q000191:economics / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D016019:Survival Analysis; D013997:Time Factors; D016896:Treatment Outcome
chemical_list: D001786:Blood Glucose; D052216:Glucagon-Like Peptide 1; D006442:Glycated Hemoglobin; D007004:Hypoglycemic Agents; D000069450:Liraglutide; D013453:Sulfonylurea Compounds; C057619:glimepiride