title: A simple risk scoring system for prediction of relapse after inpatient alcohol treatment.
abstract: Predicting relapse after alcoholism treatment can be useful in targeting patients for aftercare services. However, a valid and practical instrument for predicting relapse risk does not exist. Based on a prospective study of alcoholism treatment, we developed the Risk of Alcoholic Relapse Scale (RARS) using items taken from the Addiction Severity Index and some basic demographic information. The RARS was cross-validated using two non-overlapping samples, and tested for its ability to predict relapse across different models of treatment. The RARS predicted relapse to drinking within 6 months after alcoholism treatment in both the original and the validation sample, and in a second validation sample it predicted admission to new treatment 3 years after treatment. The RARS can identify patients at high risk of relapse who need extra aftercare and support after treatment.
authors.affiliation: Center for Alcohol and Drug Research, Aarhus University, Arhus C, Denmark. mup@crf.au.dk
authors.forename: Mads Uffe
authors.initials: MU
authors.lastname: Pedersen
authors.forename: Morten
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Hesse
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000437:Alcoholism / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000534:rehabilitation*; D003718:Denmark; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006301:Health Services Needs and Demand; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D010343:Patient Admission; D010352:Patient Dropouts / Q000523:psychology / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D010359:Patient Readmission; D010555:Personality Inventory / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D011446:Prospective Studies; D011594:Psychometrics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D012008:Recurrence; D012042:Registries; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012306:Risk; D016320:Substance Abuse Treatment Centers