title: Bayesian network for risk of diarrhea associated with the use of recycled water.
abstract: Estimating potential health risks associated with recycled (reused) water is highly complex given the multiple factors affecting water quality. We take a conceptual model, which represents the factors and pathways by which recycled water may pose a risk of contracting gastroenteritis, convert the conceptual model to a Bayesian net, and quantify the model using one expert's opinion. This allows us to make various predictions as to the risks posed under various scenarios. Bayesian nets provide an additional way of modeling the determinants of recycled water quality and elucidating their relative influence on a given disease outcome. The important contribution to Bayesian net methodology is that all model predictions, whether risk or relative risk estimates, are expressed as credible intervals.
authors.affiliation: Queensland University of Technology, George St., Brisbane QLD 4000, Australia. Margaret.Donald@student.qut.edu.au
authors.forename: Margaret
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Donald
authors.forename: Angus
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Cook
authors.forename: Kerrie
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Mengersen
mesh_terms: D001499:Bayes Theorem; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D003967:Diarrhea / Q000209:etiology*; D005759:Gastroenteritis / Q000209:etiology; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D014871:Water Microbiology; D018508:Water Purification; D014881:Water Supply