title: Transmission dynamic modelling of the impact of human papillomavirus vaccination in the United Kingdom.
abstract: Many countries are considering vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV). However, the long-term impact of vaccination is difficult to predict due to uncertainty about the prevalence of HPV infection, pattern of sexual partnerships, progression of cervical neoplasias, accuracy of screening as well as the duration of infectiousness and immunity. Dynamic models of human papillomavirus (HPV) transmission were developed to describe the infection spread and development of cervical neoplasia, cervical cancer (squamous cell and adenocarcinoma) and anogenital warts. Using different combinations of assumptions, 9900 scenarios were created. Each scenario was then fitted to epidemiological data and the best-fitting scenarios used to predict the impact of vaccination. Results suggest that vaccinating 12-year-old girls at 80% coverage will result in a 38-82% reduction in cervical cancer incidence and 44-100% reduction in anogenital warts incidence after 60 years of an ongoing vaccination programme if vaccine protection lasts 20 years on average. The marginal benefit of vaccinating boys depends on the degree of protection achieved by vaccinating girls.
authors.affiliation: Immunisation Department, HPA Centre for Infections, 61 Colindale Avenue, Colindale, London, United Kingdom. yoon.choi@hpa.org.uk
authors.forename: Yoon Hong
authors.initials: YH
authors.lastname: Choi
authors.forename: Mark
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Jit
authors.forename: Nigel
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Gay
authors.forename: Andrew
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Cox
authors.forename: Geoff P
authors.initials: GP
authors.lastname: Garnett
authors.forename: William John
authors.initials: WJ
authors.lastname: Edmunds
mesh_terms: D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D017589:Immunization Programs; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008390:Markov Chains; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D030361:Papillomavirus Infections / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000635:transmission*; D053918:Papillomavirus Vaccines / Q000008:administration & dosage*; D006113:United Kingdom; D002583:Uterine Cervical Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000821:virology; D002578:Uterine Cervical Dysplasia / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000821:virology
chemical_list: D053918:Papillomavirus Vaccines