title: 12-month outcome after cardiac surgery: prediction by troponin T in combination with the European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The prognostic value of troponin T for midterm outcome in cardiac surgery is insufficiently known. We aimed to assess the value of troponin T to predict 12-month outcome after cardiac surgery, as a single predictor and in combination with the European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation (EuroSCORE).
  
  
  METHODS
  This cohort study included consecutive patients undergoing on-pump cardiac surgery between January 2005 and December 2006. We evaluated postoperative troponin T (TNT) on days 1 and 2 and the EuroSCORE as predictor variables. The primary composite endpoint was all-cause mortality or any major adverse cardiac event (MACE) at 12 months. Logistic regression was used to study the prognostic effect of TNT in a univariate analysis and after adjustment for EuroSCORE. The area under the receiver-operator curve (AUC) was calculated to report the discriminatory performance of the models.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Seven hundred forty-one patients were available for analysis. Within 12 months after surgery, 92 (12.4%) patients had a MACE, 48 (6.5%) of whom died. A multivariate model of continuous TNT and the continuous logistic EuroSCORE showed a significant independent association between TNT and the composite endpoint (odds ratio [OR] 1.03, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02 to 1.04 per 0.1 microg/L increase in TNT). The AUC for the prediction of the composite endpoint of the model combining TNT and the EuroSCORE was 0.72; when based on EuroSCORE alone it was 0.64 (p < 0.0001).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Postoperative TNT increase (per 0.1 microg/L) is a strong independent predictor of 12-month outcome after on-pump cardiac surgery. Updating the preoperative EuroSCORE risk with postoperative TNT allows for better prediction of 12-month MACE and all-cause mortality.
authors.affiliation: Department of Anesthesia and Intensive Care Medicine, University Hospital Basel, Basel, Switzerland. luratig@uhbs.ch
authors.forename: Giovanna A
authors.initials: GA
authors.lastname: Lurati Buse
authors.forename: Michael T
authors.initials: MT
authors.lastname: Koller
authors.forename: Martin
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Grapow
authors.forename: Céline M
authors.initials: CM
authors.lastname: Brüni
authors.forename: Jorge
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Kasper
authors.forename: Manfred D
authors.initials: MD
authors.lastname: Seeberger
authors.forename: Miodrag
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Filipovic
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D015415:Biomarkers / Q000097:blood; D006348:Cardiac Surgical Procedures / Q000379:methods*; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006331:Heart Diseases / Q000097:blood / Q000601:surgery*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009017:Morbidity / Q000639:trends; D011183:Postoperative Complications / Q000097:blood / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology*; D011379:Prognosis; D011446:Prospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D012307:Risk Factors; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D015996:Survival Rate / Q000639:trends; D013557:Switzerland / Q000453:epidemiology; D013997:Time Factors; D020107:Troponin T / Q000097:blood*
chemical_list: D015415:Biomarkers; D020107:Troponin T