Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa.
Armed conflict within nations has had disastrous humanitarian consequences throughout much of the world. Here we undertake the first comprehensive examination of the potential impact of global climate change on armed conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. We find strong historical linkages between civil war and temperature in Africa, with warmer years leading to significant increases in the likelihood of war. When combined with climate model projections of future temperature trends, this historical response to temperature suggests a roughly 54% increase in armed conflict incidence by 2030, or an additional 393,000 battle deaths if future wars are as deadly as recent wars. Our results suggest an urgent need to reform African governments' and foreign aid donors' policies to deal with rising temperatures.
Burke
Marshall B
MB
Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA. marshall.burke@berkeley.edu
Miguel
Edward
E
Satyanath
Shanker
S
Dykema
John A
JA
Lobell
David B
DB
D017954:Africa South of the Sahara / Q000453:epidemiology; D057232:Global Warming; D017752:Greenhouse Effect; D015994:Incidence; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012307:Risk Factors; D014857:Warfare