title: GRACE, TIMI, Zwolle and CADILLAC risk scores--do they predict 5-year outcomes after ST-elevation myocardial infarction treated invasively?
abstract: BACKGROUND
  GRACE, TIMI, Zwolle, and CADILLAC are risk scores designed for predicting short-term outcome after acute coronary syndromes. The aim of our study was to test their utility for a prognosis of 5-year survival in a "real-life" population of patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) treated with primary percutaneous coronary interventions (pPCI).
  
  
  METHODS
  Our registry consisted of consecutive patients with STEMI treated with pPCI. Five-year follow-up was performed with all-cause mortality as the end-point.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Out of 505 patients (mean age 58.6±11.3 years) 32 died during the first 30 days (6.3%) and an additional 74 within 5 years (15.6%). PCI was successful in 95.2% (n=481). Prognostic values (c statistics) for predicting 5-year mortality equaled: 0.742 (CI 0.69-0.79) for the GRACE risk score, 0.727 (CI 0.67-0.78) for TIMI, 0.72 (CI 0.67-0.77) for Zwolle, and 0.687 (CI 0.63-0.74) for CADILLAC. In a univariate analysis all the scores were associated with the 5-year outcome.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  GRACE, TIMI, and Zwolle risk scores predicted well 5-year all-cause mortality in patients with STEMI treated with pPCI. Our data show that the usefulness of initial bedside risk assessment can be further extended for long-term follow-up.
authors.affiliation: Department of Cardiology, Medical University of Bialystok, ul. M. Sklodowskiej-Curie 24a, 15-276 Bialystok, Poland. Anna.Kozieradzka@daad-alumni.de
authors.forename: Anna
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Kozieradzka
authors.forename: Karol Adam
authors.initials: KA
authors.lastname: Kamiński
authors.forename: Dominika
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Maciorkowska
authors.forename: Magdalena
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Olszewska
authors.forename: Slawomir
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Dobrzycki
authors.forename: Konrad
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Nowak
authors.forename: Pawel
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Kralisz
authors.forename: Przemyslaw
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Prokopczuk
authors.forename: Wlodzimierz Jerzy
authors.initials: WJ
authors.lastname: Musial
mesh_terms: D054058:Acute Coronary Syndrome / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000401:mortality / Q000628:therapy*; D000368:Aged; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009203:Myocardial Infarction / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000401:mortality / Q000628:therapy*; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012042:Registries; D012107:Research Design / Q000592:standards*; D018570:Risk Assessment; D015996:Survival Rate / Q000639:trends; D016896:Treatment Outcome