title: Indirect emissions from biofuels: how important?
abstract: A global biofuels program will lead to intense pressures on land supply and can increase greenhouse gas emissions from land-use changes. Using linked economic and terrestrial biogeochemistry models, we examined direct and indirect effects of possible land-use changes from an expanded global cellulosic bioenergy program on greenhouse gas emissions over the 21st century. Our model predicts that indirect land use will be responsible for substantially more carbon loss (up to twice as much) than direct land use; however, because of predicted increases in fertilizer use, nitrous oxide emissions will be more important than carbon losses themselves in terms of warming potential. A global greenhouse gas emissions policy that protects forests and encourages best practices for nitrogen fertilizer use can dramatically reduce emissions associated with biofuels production.
authors.affiliation: The Ecosystems Center, Marine Biological Laboratory (MBL), 7 MBL Street, Woods Hole, MA 02543, USA. jmelillo@mbl.edu
authors.forename: Jerry M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Melillo
authors.forename: John M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Reilly
authors.forename: David W
authors.initials: DW
authors.lastname: Kicklighter
authors.forename: Angelo C
authors.initials: AC
authors.lastname: Gurgel
authors.forename: Timothy W
authors.initials: TW
authors.lastname: Cronin
authors.forename: Sergey
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Paltsev
authors.forename: Benjamin S
authors.initials: BS
authors.lastname: Felzer
authors.forename: Xiaodong
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.forename: Andrei P
authors.initials: AP
authors.lastname: Sokolov
authors.forename: C Adam
authors.initials: CA
authors.lastname: Schlosser
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture; D001272:Atmosphere; D056804:Biofuels; D002244:Carbon; D002245:Carbon Dioxide; D057231:Climate Change; D003198:Computer Simulation; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D017753:Ecosystem; D005308:Fertilizers; D005579:Fossil Fuels; D018803:Models, Economic; D009609:Nitrous Oxide; D013997:Time Factors; D014197:Trees
chemical_list: D056804:Biofuels; D005308:Fertilizers; D005579:Fossil Fuels; D002245:Carbon Dioxide; D002244:Carbon; D009609:Nitrous Oxide