title: A mathematical model to study the effect of hepatitis B virus vaccine and antivirus treatment among the Canadian Inuit population.
abstract: The prevalence of hepatitis B among the Canadian Inuit population is 4%. This study will use a mathematical model to compare the roles of vaccination and therapy to predict future prevalence and incidence among the Canadian Inuit population for the next 50 years. We applied a mathematical model developed by Medley et al. (Nat Med 7(5):619-624, 2001), combined with data on hepatitis B incidence, prevalence, and vaccination coverage, to predict trends of hepatitis B virus (HBV) among the Inuit population over the next 50 years. The current estimated prevalence of HBV is 6.04% and the incidence is 3.4/100,000 persons among Canadian Inuit. If HBV vaccination coverage levels of 47.2% remain unchanged, the prevalence of HBV will decrease to 1.91% and the incidence will decrease to 0.81/100,000 persons by 2058. If vaccination coverage levels are increased to 57.2%, the prevalence and incidence of HBV will decrease to 1.74% and 0.63/100,000 persons, respectively. If we increase both immunization and therapy by 10%, this will produce the greatest reduction in prevalence and incidence, to 1.56% and 0.54/100,000 persons, respectively. The combination of immunization and treatment programs seems to have the best result in decreasing the prevalence and incidence of HBV among the Inuit population.
authors.affiliation: Blood Safety Surveillance Division, Centre for Communicable Diseases and Infection Control, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada.
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: O'Leary
authors.forename: Z
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Hong
authors.forename: F
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Dawood
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Smart
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Kaita
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Wu
mesh_terms: D000998:Antiviral Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D002170:Canada / Q000453:epidemiology; D006509:Hepatitis B / Q000188:drug therapy / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000276:immunology / Q000635:transmission*; D017325:Hepatitis B Vaccines / Q000276:immunology*; D006515:Hepatitis B virus / Q000302:isolation & purification*; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D004930:Inuit; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D015995:Prevalence
chemical_list: D000998:Antiviral Agents; D017325:Hepatitis B Vaccines