title: Epidemiological perspectives on type 1 diabetes in childhood and adolescence in germany: 20 years of the Baden-württemberg Diabetes Incidence Registry (DIARY).
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To predict the frequency of type 1 diabetes in childhood and adolescence (<15 years of age) in Germany for the next 20 years.
  
  
  METHODS
  Data on diabetes onset has been collected by means of a registry in the federal German state of Baden-Württemberg (documentation period, 1987-2006; n = 5,108; completeness of data 98.1%).
  
  
  RESULTS
  The current incidence rate (2000-2006) is 19.4 per 100,000 per year (95% CI 18.6-20.2). The annual incidence rate can be expressed as a square of a linear function of the calendar year X [y = (3.05 + 0.0778 x {X-1986})(2); r(2) = 0.90]. The highest increase per year was observed in the age-groups comprising 2- and 3-year-olds (12 and 13% per year, respectively). The incidence rate for the year 2026 is estimated to be 37.9 per 100,000 per year (95% CI 33.3-42.9).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The increase that we found in younger children is characteristic of a left shift toward an earlier age.
authors.affiliation: University Children's Hospital, Tuebingen, Germany.
authors.forename: Stefan
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Ehehalt
authors.forename: Klaus
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Dietz
authors.forename: Andre M
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Willasch
authors.forename: Andreas
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Neu
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D002648:Child; D003922:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1 / Q000453:epidemiology*; D004282:Documentation / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D004641:Emigration and Immigration / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D005387:Finland / Q000453:epidemiology; D005858:Germany / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012042:Registries; D012307:Risk Factors