Subclinical atherosclerosis modeling: Integration of coronary artery calcium score to Framingham equation.
Medical prevention consists to identify as soon as possible apparently healthy individuals who develop a disease and to engage them for active preventive treatment. Several cross-sectional studies of general populations or high cardiovascular risk have shown that coronary calcium score (coronary artery calcium, CAC) was positively associated with traditional risk factors (hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes, and smoking) and some new risk factors (fibrinogen). In this work, we first calculated, among 618 men, the risk of 10-years cardiovascular heart disease (CHD) according to the Framingham risk model, and then we calculated the probability that the CAC score of an individual falls in all four CAC categories (0, 1-100, 101-400 and > 400). We obtained risk factors adjusted relative risk (RR) estimates from a meta-analysis comparing the risk of coronary heart disease in individuals with CAC scores of 1-100 (RR = 1.7), 101 - 400 (RR = 3.0) and > 400 (RR = 4.3) with the risk of a person with a CAC score zero. The new model for the risk of CHD for each CAC score category were then calculated assuming an average 1-year risk of CHD and risk assessment of the four CAC score categories, weighted by the probability that scores fall into each category. The combination of modeling the CCA with the modeling of conventional risk factors allows obtaining a remarkable predictive value that can improve the assessment of overall risk Framingham through the reclassification of the risk of CHD to an extent which may be clinically important.
Pessana
F
F
Faculty of Engineering and Exact and Natural Sciences, Favaloro University, Buenos Aires, Argentina. fpessana@favaloro.edu.ar
Armentano
R
R
Chironi
G
G
Megnien
J L
JL
Mousseaux
E
E
Simon
A
A
D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D000704:Analysis of Variance; D050197:Atherosclerosis / Q000473:pathology*; D002118:Calcium / Q000378:metabolism*; D003331:Coronary Vessels / Q000378:metabolism* / Q000473:pathology*; D006801:Humans; D016014:Linear Models; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008955:Models, Cardiovascular; D012372:ROC Curve
D002118:Calcium