title: A simple clinical model composed of ECG, shock index, and arterial blood gas analysis for predicting severe pulmonary embolism.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Objective diagnosis of severe pulmonary embolism (PE) is obligatory because of its considerable mortality.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To assess the abilities of electrocardiography (ECG) score (sECG) and the newly generated scoring system composed of the scores obtained from arterial blood gas (ABG) analysis and shock index (SI) in addition to sECG in predicting severe PE.
  
  
  METHODS
  The degree of pulmonary vascular obstruction (sPVO) and the right ventricular dysfunction (RVD) were determined with spiral computed tomography (CT) in 53 consequent patients with PE. Twelve-lead ECG taken within a day of PE event and ABG values were evaluated according to ECG scoring system and original Geneva system, respectively.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The mean age of patients was 62.6 ± 13.4 years. Right ventricular dysfunction, sPVO ≥ 50%, hypoxemia, and SI were present in 34 (64.2%), 27 (50.9%), 50 (94.3%), and 22 (41.5%) patients, respectively. The mean sECG, 5.9 ± 5.1, was correlated with sPVO, maximum diameter of right ventricle (RV), and right ventricle to left ventricle (RV/LV) ratio (r = .385, r = .415, and r = .329, respectively). The mean newly generated score was 10.9 ± 5.5 and correlated with sPVO, maximum diameter of RV, and RV/LV ratio (r = .394, r = .483, and r = .393, respectively). Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analyses revealed that sECG ≥ 3.5, s (ECG + SI) ≥ 4.5, and s (ECG + SI + ABG) ≥ 9.5 predict the severe PE patients with 70.6%, 61.8%, 58.8% sensitivities and 52.6%, 63.2%, 73.7% specificities, respectively.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Adding the scores obtained from SI and ABG to the sECG enhances the specificity of sECG in predicting RVD (+) or severe PE patients, although a lesser degree decreasing in sensitivity may occur.
authors: Department of Pulmonary Diseases, Suleyman Demirel University Faculty of Medicine, Isparta, Turkey. ahbircan@yahoo.com
authors: Ahmet
authors: A
authors: Bircan
authors: Nuriye
authors: N
authors: Karadeniz
authors: Ahmet
authors: A
authors: Ozden
authors: Munire
authors: M
authors: Cakir
authors: Ercan
authors: E
authors: Varol
authors: Orhan
authors: O
authors: Oyar
authors: Mehmet
authors: M
authors: Ozaydin
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001784:Blood Gas Analysis; D004562:Electrocardiography; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008954:Models, Biological; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011446:Prospective Studies; D011655:Pulmonary Embolism / Q000097:blood* / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000503:physiopathology; D012720:Severity of Illness Index