Influenza-attributable mortality in Australians aged more than 50 years: a comparison of different modelling approaches.
This study aimed to compare systematically approaches to estimating influenza-attributable mortality in older Australians. Using monthly age-specific death data together with viral surveillance counts for influenza and respiratory syncytial virus, we explored two of the most frequently used methods of estimating excess influenza-attributable disease: Poisson and Serfling regression models. These approaches produced consistent age and temporal patterns in estimates of influenza-attributable mortality in older Australians but some variation in the magnitude of the disease burden. Of Australians aged >50 years, average annual estimated influenza-attributable deaths (all cause) ranged from 2314 to 3457 for the Serfling and Poisson regression models, respectively. The excess influenza-attributable disease burden was substantial under all approaches.
Newall
A T
AT
The School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, NSW 2052, Australia. a.newall@unsw.edu.au
Viboud
C
C
Wood
J G
JG
D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001315:Australia / Q000453:epidemiology; D053821:Cardiovascular Infections / Q000401:mortality / Q000821:virology; D006801:Humans; D009980:Influenza A virus; D009981:Influenza B virus; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000401:mortality*; D008875:Middle Aged; D008954:Models, Biological; D016012:Poisson Distribution; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012141:Respiratory Tract Infections / Q000401:mortality / Q000821:virology