title: Concentration response functions for ultrafine particles and all-cause mortality and hospital admissions: results of a European expert panel elicitation.
abstract: Toxicological studies have provided evidence of the toxicity of ultrafine particles (UFP), but epidemiological evidence for health effects of ultrafines is limited. No quantitative summary currently exists of concentration-response functions for ultrafine particles that can be used in health impact assessment. The goal was to specify concentration-response functions for ultrafine particles in urban air including their uncertainty through an expert panel elicitation. Eleven European experts from the disciplines of epidemiology, toxicology, and clinical medicine selected using a systematic peer-nomination procedure participated. Using individual ratings supplemented with group discussion, probability distributions of effect estimates were obtained for all-cause mortality and cardiovascular and respiratory hospital admissions. Experts judged the small database of epidemiological studies supplemented with experimental studies sufficient to quantify effects of UFP on all-cause mortality and to a lesser extent hospital admissions. Substantial differences in the estimated UFP health effect and its uncertainty were found between experts. The lack of studies on long-term exposure to UFP was rated as the most important source of uncertainty. Effects on hospital admissions were considered more uncertain. This expert elicitation provides the first quantitative evaluation of estimates of concentration response functions between urban air ultrafine particles and all-cause mortality and hospital admissions.
authors: Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences and Copernicus Institute, University of Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
authors: Gerard
authors: G
authors: Hoek
authors: Hanna
authors: H
authors: Boogaard
authors: Anne
authors: A
authors: Knol
authors: Jeroen
authors: J
authors: de Hartog
authors: Pauline
authors: P
authors: Slottje
authors: Jon G
authors: JG
authors: Ayres
authors: Paul
authors: P
authors: Borm
authors: Bert
authors: B
authors: Brunekreef
authors: Ken
authors: K
authors: Donaldson
authors: Francesco
authors: F
authors: Forastiere
authors: Stephen
authors: S
authors: Holgate
authors: Wolfgang G
authors: WG
authors: Kreyling
authors: Benoit
authors: B
authors: Nemery
authors: Juha
authors: J
authors: Pekkanen
authors: Vicki
authors: V
authors: Stone
authors: H-Erich
authors: HE
authors: Wichmann
authors: Jeroen
authors: J
authors: van der Sluijs
mesh_terms: D005060:Europe / Q000453:epidemiology; D006760:Hospitalization; D006801:Humans; D009026:Mortality; D010316:Particle Size; D010343:Patient Admission