Breast cancer mortality in Mexico: an age-period-cohort analysis.
OBJECTIVE
To assess the age, period and cohort effects on breast cancer (BC) mortality in Mexico.


METHODS
Age, period and cohort curvature trends for BC mortality were estimated through the Poisson Regression model proposed by Holford.


RESULTS
Nationally, BC death rates have leveled off since 1995 in most age groups. BC mortality trends are mainly determined by birth cohort and age effects in Mexico. Women born between 1940 and 1955 show the highest rate of increase in BC mortality. Women born afterwards still show an increasing trend but at a much lower rate. Mammography and adjuvant therapy have had a limited impact on mortality. Potential reasons for observed patterns are discussed. An increase in BC mortality in Mexico is expected in the following decades.


CONCLUSIONS
Mammography screening programs and timely access to effective treatment should be a national priority to reverse the expected increasing BC mortality trend.
Franco-Marina
Francisco
F
Instituto Nacional de Rehabilitación, División de Epidemiología, Calz. México-Xochimilco 289 Col.Arenal de Guadalupe, Tlalpan, 14389 México, DF. franciscofrancomarina@gmail.com
Lazcano-Ponce
Eduardo
E
López-Carrillo
Lizbeth
L
D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001943:Breast Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality*; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008800:Mexico / Q000453:epidemiology; D008875:Middle Aged