Long-term economic growth stimulus of human capital preservation in the elderly.
Health care is a crucial factor in US economic growth, because growing health care costs have made US corporations less competitive than their counterparts in countries where central governments assume most of those costs. In this paper we illustrate a second, possibly more powerful, effect of health care expenditures on the long term pace of US economic growth, i.e., that such investments in aging populations helps preserve human capital to later ages. In addition, as current investment in health care improves health and functional status, the future demand for health care as well as future health care costs will be constrained. These are crucial factors in countries experiencing rapid population aging. US labor force projections do not directly represent the effects of health care investment on the health of the future labor force, and federal health cost projections do not reflect the trajectory of health changes. Health dynamic projections suggest the effects of health care investment are large and growth stimulating. Projections done for the time period used by the Congressional Budget Office in budget mark-ups (2010-2020) are presented in the supporting information.
Manton
Kenneth G
KG
Trinity College of Arts and Sciences, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA.
Gu
Xi-Liang
XL
Ullian
Arthur
A
Tolley
H Dennis
HD
Headen
Alvin E
AE
Lowrimore
Gene
G
D000368:Aged; D057217:Economic Development / Q000639:trends*; D004651:Employment; D035082:Federal Government; D005544:Forecasting; D017048:Health Care Costs / Q000639:trends*; D005102:Health Expenditures / Q000639:trends*; D006299:Health Services for the Aged; D006801:Humans; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors; D014481:United States