Dante Pazzanese risk score for non-st-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome.
BACKGROUND
The probability of adverse events estimate is crucial in acute coronary syndrome condition.


OBJECTIVE
To develop a risk score for the brazilian population presenting non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome.


METHODS
One thousand and twenty seven (1,027) patients were investigated prospectively at a cardiology center in Brazil. A multiple logistic regression model was developed to estimate death or (re)infarction risk within 30 days. Model predictive accuracy was determined by C statistic.


RESULTS
Combined event occurred in 54 patients (5.3%). The score was created by the arithmetic sum of independent predictors points. Points were determined by corresponding probabilities of event occurrence. The following variables have been identified: age increase (0 to 9 points); diabetes mellitus history (2 points) or prior stroke (4 points); no previous use of angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor (1 point); creatinine level increase (0 to 10 points); the combination of troponin I level increase and ST-segment depression (0 to 4 points). Four risk groups were defined: very low (up to 5 points); low (6 to 10 points ); intermediate (11 to 15 points ); high risk (16 to 30 points ). The C statistic was 0.78 for event probability, and 0.74 for risk score.


CONCLUSIONS
A risk score of easy application in the emergency service was developed to predict death or (re)infarction within 30 days in a brazilian population with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome.
Santos
Elizabete Silva dos
ES
Instituto do Coração, HC, FM, USP, São Paulo, SP, Brasil. elizabetessantos@cardiol.br
Timerman
Ari
A
Baltar
Valéria Troncoso
VT
Castillo
Maria Tereza Cabrera
MT
Pereira
Marcos Paulo
MP
Minuzzo
Luiz
L
Piegas
Leopoldo Soares
LS
D054058:Acute Coronary Syndrome / Q000401:mortality*; D000368:Aged; D001938:Brazil; D004636:Emergency Service, Hospital; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009203:Myocardial Infarction / Q000209:etiology; D012008:Recurrence; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods / Q000592:standards