title: Integrative predictive model of coronary artery calcification in atherosclerosis.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Many different genetic and clinical factors have been identified as causes or contributors to atherosclerosis. We present a model of preclinical atherosclerosis based on genetic and clinical data that predicts the presence of coronary artery calcification in healthy Americans of European descent 45 to 84 years of age in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).
  
  
  RESULTS
  We assessed 712 individuals for the presence or absence of coronary artery calcification and assessed their genotypes for 2882 single-nucleotide polymorphisms. With the use of these single-nucleotide polymorphisms and relevant clinical data, a Bayesian network that predicts the presence of coronary calcification was constructed. The model contained 13 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (from genes AGTR1, ALOX15, INSR, PRKAB1, IL1R2, ESR2, KCNK1, FBLN5, PPARA, VEGFA, PON1, TDRD6, PLA2G7, and 1 ancestry informative marker) and 5 clinical variables (sex, age, weight, smoking, and diabetes mellitus) and achieved 85% predictive accuracy, as measured by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. This is a significant (P<0.001) improvement on models that use just the single-nucleotide polymorphism data or just the clinical variables.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  We present an investigation of joint genetic and clinical factors associated with atherosclerosis that shows predictive results for both cases, as well as enhanced performance for their combination.
authors: Harvard Partners Center for Genetics and Genomics, Harvard Medical School, 77 Avenue Louis Pasteur, Boston, MA 02115, USA.
authors: Michael
authors: M
authors: McGeachie
authors: Rachel L Badovinac
authors: RL
authors: Ramoni
authors: Josyf C
authors: JC
authors: Mychaleckyj
authors: Karen L
authors: KL
authors: Furie
authors: Jonathan M
authors: JM
authors: Dreyfuss
authors: Yongmei
authors: Y
authors: Liu
authors: David
authors: D
authors: Herrington
authors: Xiuqing
authors: X
authors: Guo
authors: João A
authors: JA
authors: Lima
authors: Wendy
authors: W
authors: Post
authors: Jerome I
authors: JI
authors: Rotter
authors: Stephen
authors: S
authors: Rich
authors: Michèle
authors: M
authors: Sale
authors: Marco F
authors: MF
authors: Ramoni
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D050197:Atherosclerosis / Q000208:ethnology / Q000235:genetics*; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D002114:Calcinosis / Q000208:ethnology / Q000235:genetics*; D015331:Cohort Studies; D003324:Coronary Artery Disease / Q000208:ethnology / Q000235:genetics*; D005260:Female; D005838:Genotype; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008955:Models, Cardiovascular; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012307:Risk Factors; D044465:White People / Q000208:ethnology / Q000235:genetics