title: Hemoglobin A1c in predicting progression to diabetes.
abstract: The predictive value of hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) in comparison to fasting plasma glucose (FPG) is evaluated for 5-year incident diabetes (DM), as HbA1c may be more practical than FPG in the screening for DM in the future. Of 1189 non-DM subjects aged 35-89 years old from the Funagata Study, 57 subjects (4.8%) had developed DM on the WHO criteria at 5-year follow-up. The odds ratio (95% confidence interval: CI) for a one standard deviation increase in FPG/HbA1c was 3.40 (2.44-4.74)/3.49 (2.42-5.02). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for FPG/HbA1c was 0.786 (95% CI: 0.719-0.853)/0.785 (0.714-0.855). The HbA1c corresponding to FPG 5.56 mmol/l was HbA1c 5.3%. There was no statistical difference in sensitivity between FPG 5.56 mmol/l and HbA1c 5.3% (61.4% vs. 56.1%), while specificity was higher in HbA1c 5.3% than FPG 5.56 mmol/l (87.8% vs. 82.5%, p-value<0.001). The fraction of incident case from those with baseline IGT was similar between the groups, however the fraction of people above the cut-off was significantly lower in HbA1c 5.3% than FPG 5.56 mmol/l (14.3% vs. 19.6%, p-value<0.001). HbA1c is similar to FPG to evaluate DM risk, and HbA1c could be practical and efficient to select subjects for intervention.
authors: Diabetes Centre, Tokyo Women's Medical University, 8-1, Kawada-cho, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 162-8666, Japan. nakagami@dmc.twmu.ac.jp
authors: Tomoko
authors: T
authors: Nakagami
authors: Naoko
authors: N
authors: Tajima
authors: Toshihide
authors: T
authors: Oizumi
authors: Shigeru
authors: S
authors: Karasawa
authors: Kiriko
authors: K
authors: Wada
authors: Wataru
authors: W
authors: Kameda
authors: Shinji
authors: S
authors: Susa
authors: Takeo
authors: T
authors: Kato
authors: Makoto
authors: M
authors: Daimon
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001786:Blood Glucose / Q000032:analysis* / Q000378:metabolism; D001794:Blood Pressure; D003920:Diabetes Mellitus / Q000097:blood* / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000503:physiopathology; D018450:Disease Progression; D005215:Fasting; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D005951:Glucose Tolerance Test; D006442:Glycated Hemoglobin / Q000032:analysis* / Q000378:metabolism; D006801:Humans; D007564:Japan / Q000453:epidemiology; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012372:ROC Curve; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity
chemical_list: D001786:Blood Glucose; D006442:Glycated Hemoglobin