title: Risk prediction in patients undergoing elective endovascular repair of an abdominal aortic aneurysm.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The aim of this study was to retrospectively evaluate three risk scoring methods in predicting outcome after elective endovascular repair of an abdominal aortic aneurysm.
  
  
  METHODS
  A Zenith stent graft was employed in 205 patients during years 2001-2005.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The 30-day postoperative mortality rate was 2.9%. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis showed that the Glasgow aneurysm score (GAS) (AUC: 0.843, p=0.004) and the Giles' score (AUC 0.815, p=0.009) had a rather large area under the curve in predicting 30-day mortality rate. The modified Leiden score was much less accurate (AUC: 0.594). The best cut-off value for the GAS in predicting 30-day mortality was 90 (0.6% vs. 17.9%, p<0.0001). Patients with a GAS > or = 90 had a 4-year survival rate of 56.8%, whereas it was 78.5% among those with a lower GAS (p = 0.001). The best cut-off value for the Giles' score was 11 (1.3% vs. 8.3%, p<0.0001). Patients with a Giles' score > or = 11 had a 4-year survival rate of 63.9%, whereas it was 79.0% among those with a lower score (p = 0.016).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The GAS and Giles' risk scoring methods are good predictors of poor immediate and late outcome after EVAR.
authors: Department of Radiology, Oulu University Hospital, Oulu, Finland. Terhi.Nevala@ppshp.fi
authors: Terhi
authors: T
authors: Nevala
authors: Fausto
authors: F
authors: Biancari
authors: Jukka
authors: J
authors: Perälä
authors: Hannu
authors: H
authors: Manninen
authors: Pekka-Sakari
authors: PS
authors: Aho
authors: Pekka
authors: P
authors: Matsi
authors: Kimmo
authors: K
authors: Mäkinen
authors: Wolf-Dieter
authors: WD
authors: Roth
authors: Kari
authors: K
authors: Ylönen
authors: Mauri
authors: M
authors: Lepäntalo
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D017544:Aortic Aneurysm, Abdominal / Q000401:mortality / Q000601:surgery*; D001807:Blood Vessel Prosthesis; D019917:Blood Vessel Prosthesis Implantation / Q000009:adverse effects* / Q000379:methods / Q000401:mortality; D017558:Elective Surgical Procedures; D005260:Female; D006305:Health Status Indicators; D006801:Humans; D053208:Kaplan-Meier Estimate; D008297:Male; D016017:Odds Ratio; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011474:Prosthesis Design; D012372:ROC Curve; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D015607:Stents; D013997:Time Factors; D016896:Treatment Outcome