title: Global sea level linked to global temperature.
abstract: We propose a simple relationship linking global sea-level variations on time scales of decades to centuries to global mean temperature. This relationship is tested on synthetic data from a global climate model for the past millennium and the next century. When applied to observed data of sea level and temperature for 1880-2000, and taking into account known anthropogenic hydrologic contributions to sea level, the correlation is >0.99, explaining 98% of the variance. For future global temperature scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report, the relationship projects a sea-level rise ranging from 75 to 190 cm for the period 1990-2100.
authors.affiliation: Department of Surveying, Helsinki University of Technology, P.O. Box 1200, FI-02150, Espoo, Finland. martin.vermeer@tkk.fi
authors.forename: Martin
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Vermeer
authors.forename: Stefan
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Rahmstorf