title: Predictors of aspiration pneumonia following radiotherapy for head and neck cancer.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Aspiration following radiotherapy for head and neck cancer (HNC) is a common event, but not all patients with aspiration will develop pneumonia. Our aim was to identify predictors of pneumonia in patients with aspiration following radiotherapy for HNC.
  
  
  METHODS
  We performed a retrospective study of 52 patients referred for modified videofluoroscopic barium swallow (MVBS) testing at our institution from 2003 to 2007 in order to identify clinical variables associated with the diagnosis of aspiration pneumonia.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Independent risk factors for the development of pneumonia were tracheobronchial aspiration on MVBS testing (odds ratio [OR], 5.0; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2 to 20.5; p = 0.025), malnutrition (OR, 4.4; 95% CI, 1.3 to 14.7; p = 0.018), and smoking history (OR, 1.04 per pack-year; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.07; p = 0.011). Through logistic regression analysis, we developed a bivariate predictive model with a sensitivity of 58%, a specificity of 90%, a positive predictive value of 79%, and a negative predictive value of 77% for the development of aspiration pneumonia in our patient population.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Depth of aspiration on MVBS testing, malnutrition, and smoking history were strongly associated with the development of aspiration pneumonia in our patient population. The use of clinical variables to determine the risk of aspiration pneumonia is feasible and may help identify high-risk patients.
authors.affiliation: Department of Otorhinolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA.
authors.forename: Michael T
authors.initials: MT
authors.lastname: Purkey
authors.forename: Marc S
authors.initials: MS
authors.lastname: Levine
authors.forename: Brandon
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Prendes
authors.forename: M Frank
authors.initials: MF
authors.lastname: Norman
authors.forename: Natasha
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Mirza
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D005260:Female; D005471:Fluoroscopy; D006258:Head and Neck Neoplasms / Q000532:radiotherapy*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D044342:Malnutrition / Q000150:complications; D008875:Middle Aged; D011015:Pneumonia, Aspiration / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000209:etiology*; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011878:Radiotherapy / Q000009:adverse effects; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D012907:Smoking / Q000009:adverse effects; D014741:Video Recording