title: Modeling the risk of malaria for travelers to areas with stable malaria transmission.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Malaria is an important threat to travelers visiting endemic regions. The risk of acquiring malaria is complex and a number of factors including transmission intensity, duration of exposure, season of the year and use of chemoprophylaxis have to be taken into account estimating risk.
  
  
  METHODS
  A mathematical model was developed to estimate the risk of non-immune individual acquiring falciparum malaria when traveling to the Amazon region of Brazil. The risk of malaria infection to travelers was calculated as a function of duration of exposure and season of arrival.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The results suggest significant variation of risk for non-immune travelers depending on arrival season, duration of the visit and transmission intensity. The calculated risk for visitors staying longer than 4 months during peak transmission was 0.5% per visit.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Risk estimates based on mathematical modeling based on accurate data can be a valuable tool in assessing risk/benefits and cost/benefits when deciding on the value of interventions for travelers to malaria endemic regions.
authors.affiliation: Department of Pathology, School of Medicine, University of Sao Paulo and LIM 01-HCFMUSP, Rua Teodoro Sampaio, 115, CEP: 05405-000-São Paulo, S.P., Brazil. edmassad@dim.fm.usp.br
authors.forename: Eduardo
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Massad
authors.forename: Ronald H
authors.initials: RH
authors.lastname: Behrens
authors.forename: Marcelo N
authors.initials: MN
authors.lastname: Burattini
authors.forename: Francisco A B
authors.initials: FA
authors.lastname: Coutinho
mesh_terms: D001938:Brazil / Q000453:epidemiology; D019353:Endemic Diseases; D006801:Humans; D016778:Malaria, Falciparum / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission*; D015233:Models, Statistical; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D012621:Seasons; D013997:Time Factors; D014195:Travel