title: First estimation of direct H1N1pdm virulence: From reported non consolidated data from Mauritius and New Caledonia.
abstract: We provide rough estimates of direct lethality from ARDS due to H1N1pdm from two independent sources of data, one from New Caledonia where 30,000 infections are assumed to have occured and 3 deaths reported to be attributable directly to the pandemic virus. Another source is Mauritius where 70,000 infections are estimated to have occured, and 7 reported death from ARDS (5 of them are currently confirmed). These surveillance data allows for first estimation of direct lethality due to H1N1pdm to be 1 per 10,000 infections, about 100 times more than regular seasonal influenza.
authors.affiliation: EHESP School of Public Health.
authors.forename: Antoine
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Flahault