title: Adaptive vaccination strategies to mitigate pandemic influenza: Mexico as a case study.
abstract: In this modeling work, we explore the effectiveness of various age-targeted vaccination strategies to mitigate hospitalization and mortality from pandemic influenza, assuming limited vaccine supplies. We propose a novel adaptive vaccination strategy in which vaccination is initiated during the outbreak and priority groups are identified based on real-time epidemiological data monitoring age-specific risk of hospitalization and death. We apply this strategy to detailed epidemiological and demographic data collected during the recent swine A/H1N1 outbreak in Mexico. We show that the adaptive strategy targeting age groups 6-59 years is the most effective in reducing hospitalizations and deaths, as compared with a more traditional strategy used in the control of seasonal influenza and targeting children under 5 and seniors over 65. Results are robust to a number of assumptions and could provide guidance to many nations facing a recrudescence of A/H1N1v pandemic activity in the fall and likely vaccine shortages.
authors.affiliation: Arizona State University, USA.
authors.forename: Gerardo
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Chowell
authors.forename: Cecile
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Viboud
authors.forename: Xiaohong
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.forename: Stefano
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Bertozzi
authors.forename: Mark
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Miller