title: Incidence and risk factors for the metabolic syndrome in an urban South European population.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To estimate the incidence of the metabolic syndrome in a Portuguese sample and to evaluate its specific risk factors.
  
  
  METHODS
  During a follow-up evaluation (May 2005-September 2008) of a Portuguese community cohort, 1377 participants were eligible for this study. Data on social, demographic, personal and family medical history and behavioral characteristics (including alcohol consumption and smoking habits) were collected. The metabolic syndrome was defined according to the AHA/NHLBI criteria Crude incidence rates were calculated for the total sample, by sex and age classes, and Poisson generalized linear models were used, with the default log link and offset in the variable time.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The incidence rate of metabolic syndrome in this population was 47.2 /1000 person-years (95% CI: 41.2-53.9), similar in females and in males. The incidence of metabolic syndrome increased with age and in less educated participants. No significant association was observed between the occurrence of metabolic syndrome and the behavioral characteristics evaluated. High waist circumference presented the strongest association with the occurrence of the metabolic syndrome, even after adjustment for other confounders (IRR=1.68; 95% CI: 1.47-1.93).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Older and less educated participants had a higher syndrome incidence. In this population, central obesity was the strongest predictor of metabolic syndrome.
authors.affiliation: Department of Hygiene and Epidemiology, University of Porto Medical School, Institute of Public Health of University of Porto, 4200-319 Porto, Portugal.
authors.forename: Ana Cristina
authors.initials: AC
authors.lastname: Santos
authors.forename: Milton
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Severo
authors.forename: Henrique
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Barros
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000886:Anthropometry; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D024821:Metabolic Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology*; D008875:Middle Aged; D009765:Obesity / Q000453:epidemiology; D016012:Poisson Distribution; D011174:Portugal / Q000453:epidemiology; D012307:Risk Factors; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires; D014505:Urban Population; D055815:Young Adult