[Life just is not fair - and statistics do not make it any better].
BACKGROUND
We have all tried it: it is pouring down with rain, we reach for the keys, and choose the wrong one. The mathematical probability for choosing the correct key - out of two - is 50%. During the 1990s, candy.scient. Jarle Gundersson (JG) proposed a mathematically unexplainable factor of uncertainty. He used the above example with the keys and concluded that the real, or observed, probability for choosing the correct key was 5-10%. The discrepancy between the mathematical and real probability was, according to JG, caused by The Awfulness of Being Concept. In this article, we present the results from a study and demonstrate the difference between the mathematical and the observed probability of success in two different scenarios (winning a coin toss and choosing the correct key in the first attempt).


METHODS
Questionnaire survey performed at the Regional Hospital of Esbjerg 18-19 September 2009 using staff as questionnaire respondents.


RESULTS
We found a discrepancy between the mathematical and observed probability in both scenarios, 64% and 68% of the cases in the two scenarios, respectively. We also found that there is a negative correlation between age and the probability that one will win a coin toss, but a positive correlation between age and choosing the correct key. The results lacked any statistical significance.


CONCLUSIONS
We hypothesised that you will always loose in a coin toss and never choose the correct key when there are two choices. The study demonstrated that this was incorrect, but there was a difference between the mathematical and the observed probabilities in most of the cases.
Folkestad
Lars
L
Medicinsk Center, Sydvestjysk Sygehus Esbjerg, Esbjerg. larsfolkestad@surfmail.dk
Jensen
Michael Gejl
MG
Brabrand
Mikkel
M
Petersen
Dan Brun
DB
Hallas
Peter
P
Knudsen
Torben
T
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D035843:Biomedical Research; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D003718:Denmark; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008433:Mathematics; D008875:Middle Aged; D010564:Personnel, Hospital; D011336:Probability; D013223:Statistics as Topic; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires; D055815:Young Adult