A mathematical model of the indirect effects of rotavirus vaccination.
Rotavirus (RV) infections progressively confer natural immunity against subsequent infection. Similarly to natural infection, vaccination with a live attenuated vaccine potentially reduces RV transmission and induces herd protection. A mathematical transmission model was developed to project the impact of a vaccination programme on the incidence of RV infection and disease for five countries in the European Union. With vaccination coverage rates of 70%, 90% and 95% the model predicted that, in addition to the direct effect of vaccination, herd protection induced a reduction in RV-related gastroenteritis (GE) incidence of 25%, 22% and 20%, respectively, for RV-GE of any severity, and of 19%, 15%, and 13%, respectively, for moderate-to-severe RV-GE, 5 years after implementation of a vaccination programme.
Van Effelterre
T
T
GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals, Wavre 1300, Belgium. Thierry.van-effelterre@gskbio.com
Soriano-Gabarró
M
M
Debrus
S
S
Claire Newbern
E
E
Gray
J
J
D005759:Gastroenteritis / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000821:virology; D006801:Humans; D032521:Immunity, Herd; D032541:Mass Vaccination; D008954:Models, Biological; D015397:Program Evaluation; D012400:Rotavirus Infections / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000635:transmission; D022243:Rotavirus Vaccines; D016896:Treatment Outcome
D022243:Rotavirus Vaccines