title: The macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza: estimates from models of the United Kingdom, France, Belgium and The Netherlands.
abstract: The 2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) showed that infectious disease outbreaks can have notable macroeconomic impacts. The current H1N1 and potential H5N1 flu pandemics could have a much greater impact. Using a multi-sector single country computable general equilibrium model of the United Kingdom, France, Belgium and The Netherlands, together with disease scenarios of varying severity, we examine the potential economic cost of a modern pandemic. Policies of school closure, vaccination and antivirals, together with prophylactic absence from work are evaluated and their cost impacts are estimated. Results suggest GDP losses from the disease of approximately 0.5-2% but school closure and prophylactic absenteeism more than triples these effects. Increasing school closures from 4 weeks at the peak to entire pandemic closure almost doubles the economic cost, but antivirals and vaccinations seem worthwhile. Careful planning is therefore important to ensure expensive policies to mitigate the pandemic are effective in minimising illness and deaths.
authors.affiliation: Health Policy Unit, Department of Public Health and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, WC1E 7HT, London, UK. Marcus.keogh-brown@lshtm.ac.uk
authors.forename: Marcus Richard
authors.initials: MR
authors.lastname: Keogh-Brown
authors.forename: Richard D
authors.initials: RD
authors.lastname: Smith
authors.forename: John W
authors.initials: JW
authors.lastname: Edmunds
authors.forename: Philippe
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Beutels
mesh_terms: D000998:Antiviral Agents / Q000191:economics / Q000627:therapeutic use; D001530:Belgium / Q000453:epidemiology; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000191:economics* / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D004467:Economics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D005602:France / Q000453:epidemiology; D006291:Health Policy / Q000191:economics* / Q000639:trends; D006801:Humans; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000191:economics* / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000401:mortality; D038622:Internationality; D018803:Models, Economic; D009426:Netherlands / Q000453:epidemiology; D011634:Public Health / Q000191:economics* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006113:United Kingdom / Q000453:epidemiology; D014611:Vaccination / Q000191:economics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data
chemical_list: D000998:Antiviral Agents