6. Oncological diseases after the Chernobyl catastrophe.
The most recent forecast by international agencies predicted there would be between 9,000 and 28,000 fatal cancers between 1986 and 2056, obviously underestimating the risk factors and the collective doses. On the basis of I-131 and Cs-137 radioisotope doses to which populations were exposed and a comparison of cancer mortality in the heavily and the less contaminated territories and pre- and post-Chernobyl cancer levels, a more realistic figure is 212,000 to 245,000 deaths in Europe and 19,000 in the rest of the world. High levels of Te-132, Ru-103, Ru-106, and Cs-134 persisted months after the Chernobyl catastrophe and the continuing radiation from Cs-137, Sr-90, Pu, and Am will generate new neoplasms for hundreds of years.
Yablokov
Alexey V
AV
Russian Academy of Sciences, Leninsky Prospect 33, Office 319, 119071 Moscow, Russia. Yablokov@ecopolicy.ru
D047852:Chernobyl Nuclear Accident; D005060:Europe / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D009381:Neoplasms, Radiation-Induced / Q000453:epidemiology*; D011829:Radiation Dosage