title: Minimal contribution of fasting hyperglycemia to the incidence of type 2 diabetes in subjects with normal 2-h plasma glucose.
abstract: OBJECTIVE To assess the relative contribution of increased fasting and postload plasma glucose concentrations to the incidence of type 2 diabetes in subjects with a normal 2-h plasma glucose concentration. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS A total of 3,450 subjects with 2-h plasma glucose concentration <140 mg/dl at baseline were followed up in the San Antonio Heart Study (SAHS) and the Botnia Study for 7-8 years. The incidence of type 2 diabetes at follow-up was related to the fasting, 1-h, and 2-h plasma glucose concentrations. RESULTS In subjects with 2-h plasma glucose <140 mg/dl, the incidence of type 2 diabetes increased with increasing fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and 1-h and 2-h plasma glucose concentrations. In a multivariate logistic analysis, after adjustment for all diabetes risk factors, the FPG concentration was a strong predictor of type 2 diabetes in both the SAHS and the Botnia Study (P < 0.0001). However, when the 1-h plasma glucose, but not 2-h plasma glucose, concentration was added to the model, FPG concentration was no longer a significant predictor of type 2 diabetes in both studies (NS). When subjects were matched for the level of 1-h plasma glucose concentration, the incidence of type 2 diabetes markedly increased with the increase in 1-h plasma glucose, but the increase in FPG was not associated with a significant increase in the incidence of type 2 diabetes. CONCLUSIONS An increase in postload glycemia in the normal range is associated with an increase in the incidence of type 2 diabetes. After controlling for 1-h plasma glucose concentration, the increase in FPG concentration is not associated with an increase in the incidence of type 2 diabetes.
authors.affiliation: Division of Diabetes, University of Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio, San Antonio, Texas, USA. abdulghani@uthscsa.edu
authors.forename: Muhammad A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Abdul-Ghani
authors.forename: Michael P
authors.initials: MP
authors.lastname: Stern
authors.forename: Valeriya
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Lyssenko
authors.forename: Tiinamaija
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Tuomi
authors.forename: Leif
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Groop
authors.forename: Ralph A
authors.initials: RA
authors.lastname: Defronzo
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D001786:Blood Glucose / Q000032:analysis*; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000097:blood / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology*; D005215:Fasting / Q000097:blood*; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D005951:Glucose Tolerance Test; D006801:Humans; D006943:Hyperglycemia / Q000150:complications* / Q000453:epidemiology; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D012307:Risk Factors; D013997:Time Factors
chemical_list: D001786:Blood Glucose