title: Platelet count/spleen diameter ratio for non-invasive prediction of high risk esophageal varices in cirrhotic patients.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Prophylaxis therapy is indicated in cirrhotic patients with large esophageal varices or small varices with red wale signs (high risk esophageal varices; HREV). Endoscopic surveillance to detect HREV is currently recommended. The objective of this study is to identify non-invasive predictors of HREV in cirrhotic patients.
  
  
  METHODS
  Adult cirrhotic patients without previous variceal bleeding were prospectively included. All patients underwent a complete biochemical workup, upper digestive endoscopy, and ultrasonographic measurement of spleen bipolar diameter. Platelet count/spleen diameter ratio (PC/SD) was calculated for all patients. The association of these variables with the presence of HREV in upper endoscopy was tested using univariate and multivariate analysis. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed for variables associated with HREV.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Sixty-seven patients were included. The prevalence rate of HREV was 50%. Age, gender (female), platelet count, spleen diameter, PC/SD ratio, total bilirrubin, prothrombin activity (INR), Child-Pugh score, clinical and ultrasonographic ascites were significantly associated with presence of HREV in univariate analysis. Age and PC/SD ratio were the parameters independently associated with HREV in a multivariate analysis, with OR 8.81 (CI 95%: 1.7-44.9) and OR 11.21 (CI 95%: 2.8-44.6) respectively. A PC/SD ratio cut-off value under 830.8 predicted HREV with 76.9% sensitivity, 74.2% specificity and 77.8% negative predictive value (ROC curve area: 0.78).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The PC/SD ratio was significantly associated with HREV, but with suboptimal sensitivity and specificity. Therefore, the results of this study do not support the routine clinical use of PC/SD ratio for screening of HREV.
authors.affiliation: Department of Gastroenterology, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile. fjbarrer@gmail.com
authors.forename: Francisco
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Barrera
authors.forename: Arnoldo
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Riquelme
authors.forename: Alejandro
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Soza
authors.forename: Alvaro
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Contreras
authors.forename: Gerty
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Barrios
authors.forename: Oslando
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Padilla
authors.forename: Paola
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Viviani
authors.forename: Rosa María
authors.initials: RM
authors.lastname: Pérez-Ayuso
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D004724:Endoscopy; D004932:Esophageal and Gastric Varices / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008103:Liver Cirrhosis / Q000150:complications*; D008297:Male; D008403:Mass Screening; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D010976:Platelet Count; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012372:ROC Curve; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D013154:Spleen / Q000033:anatomy & histology / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging*; D014463:Ultrasonography