Adaptive vaccination strategies to mitigate pandemic influenza: Mexico as a case study.
BACKGROUND
We explore vaccination strategies against pandemic influenza in Mexico using an age-structured transmission model calibrated against local epidemiological data from the Spring 2009 A(H1N1) pandemic.


RESULTS
In the context of limited vaccine supplies, we evaluate age-targeted allocation strategies that either prioritize youngest children and persons over 65 years of age, as for seasonal influenza, or adaptively prioritize age groups based on the age patterns of hospitalization and death monitored in real-time during the early stages of the pandemic. Overall the adaptive vaccination strategy outperformed the seasonal influenza vaccination allocation strategy for a wide range of disease and vaccine coverage parameters.


CONCLUSIONS
This modeling approach could inform policies for Mexico and other countries with similar demographic features and vaccine resources issues, with regard to the mitigation of the S-OIV pandemic. We also discuss logistical issues associated with the implementation of adaptive vaccination strategies in the context of past and future influenza pandemics.
Chowell
Gerardo
G
Mathematical, Computational & Modeling Sciences Center, School of Human Evolution and Social Change, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, United States of America. gchowell@asu.edu
Viboud
Cécile
C
Wang
Xiaohong
X
Bertozzi
Stefano M
SM
Miller
Mark A
MA
D056704:Adaptive Immunity / Q000276:immunology*; D017677:Age Distribution; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000266:history / Q000517:prevention & control*; D049673:History, 20th Century; D006760:Hospitalization; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D053118:Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype; D007252:Influenza Vaccines / Q000276:immunology*; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000276:immunology / Q000401:mortality / Q000517:prevention & control*; D008800:Mexico / Q000453:epidemiology; D015233:Models, Statistical; D012621:Seasons; D014611:Vaccination
D007252:Influenza Vaccines