title: Timing of uveitis onset in oligoarticular juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) is the main predictor of severe course uveitis.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Aim of the present study was to validate a statistical model to predict a severe course of anterior uveitis (AU) in patients with juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA).
  
  
  METHODS
  Consecutive patients with newly diagnosed uveitis have been followed for at least 1 year with a standardized protocol. For each patient, demographic, clinical and laboratory characteristics, including time interval between arthritis and uveitis onset, α(2)-globulins level at arthritis onset, number of uveitis relapses/year, ocular complications and therapy and visual acuity, have reported. The validation procedure included the assessment of sensitivity, specificity and efficiency of previously published statistical model (Zulian et al. J Rheumatol 2002; 29: 2446-2453) in a new inception cohort of patients during a short length follow-up.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Sixty patients with JIA, followed at 14 paediatric rheumatology-ophthalmology centres in Italy, entered the study. The mean age at arthritis onset was 4.4 years (range 1.2-15.8 years), and the mean interval time between arthritis and uveitis onset was 1.8 years (range: 0.0-14.2 years). After the first AU, patients, followed for a mean of 3.2 years, had a mean of 2.9 uveitis relapses. Twenty-two patients (36.7%) presented at least one complication. Using a probability cut-off value = 0.7, the statistical model revealed 80% sensitivity, 58% specificity and 65% efficiency.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The time interval between arthritis and uveitis onset resulted as the main predictor of severe course uveitis in JIA. The statistical model was able to predict the development of a severe course in 8 of 10 patients.
authors.affiliation: Department of Pediatrics, University of Padova, Padova, Italy. ezannin@pediatria.unipd.it
authors.forename: Maria E
authors.initials: ME
authors.lastname: Zannin
authors.forename: Irene
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Buscain
authors.forename: Fabio
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Vittadello
authors.forename: Giorgia
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Martini
authors.forename: Maria
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Alessio
authors.forename: Jelka G
authors.initials: JG
authors.lastname: Orsoni
authors.forename: Luciana
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Breda
authors.forename: Donato
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Rigante
authors.forename: Rolando
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Cimaz
authors.forename: Francesco
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Zulian
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D001171:Arthritis, Juvenile / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000503:physiopathology; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D008297:Male; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D013997:Time Factors; D014606:Uveitis, Anterior / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000503:physiopathology; D014792:Visual Acuity / Q000502:physiology; D055542:alpha-Globins / Q000378:metabolism
chemical_list: D055542:alpha-Globins