[Simulation and prediction of water environmental carrying capacity in Liaoning Province based on system dynamics model].
By the methods of system dynamics, a water environmental carrying capacity (WECC) model was constructed, and the dynamic trend of the WECC in Liaoning Province was simulated by using this model, in combining with analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and the vector norm method. It was predicted that under the conditions of maintaining present development schemes, the WECC in this province in 2000-2050 would be decreased year after year. Only increasing water resources supply while not implementing scientific and rational management of water environment could not improve the regional WECC, and the integration of searching for new and saving present water resources with controlling wastewater pollution and reducing sewage discharge would be the only effective way to improve the WECC and the coordinated development of economy, society, and environment in Liaoning.
Wang
Jian
J
School of Environmental Science, Liaoning University, Shenyang 110036, China. neuwangjian@sina.com
Li
Xue-liang
XL
Li
Fa-yun
FY
Bao
Hong-xu
HX
D002681:China; D003198:Computer Simulation; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources / Q000191:economics* / Q000379:methods; D004463:Ecology / Q000191:economics / Q000379:methods; D017753:Ecosystem; D004777:Environment; D005544:Forecasting; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D014867:Water / Q000032:analysis; D014876:Water Pollution / Q000032:analysis / Q000517:prevention & control*
D014867:Water