title: On-treatment predictions of success in peg-interferon/ribavirin treatment using a novel formula.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To predict treatment success using only simple clinical data from peg-interferon plus ribavirin therapy for chronic hepatitis C.
  
  
  METHODS
  We analyzed the clinical data of 176 patients with chronic hepatitis and hepatitis C virus genotype 1 who received 48 wk standard therapy, derived a predictive formula to assess a sustained virological response of the individual patient using a logistic regression model and confirmed the validity of this formula. The formula was constructed using data from the first 100 patients enrolled and validated using data from the remaining 76 patients.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Sustained virological response was obtained in 83 (47.2%) of the patients and we derived formulae to predict sustained virological response at pretreatment and weeks 4, 12 and 24. The likelihood of sustained virological response could be predicted effectively by the formulae at weeks 4, 12 and 24 (the area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic: 0.821, 0.802, and 0.891, respectively), but not at baseline (0.570). The formula at week 48 was also constructed and validation by test data achieved good prediction with 0.871 of the area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic. Prediction by this formula was always superior to that by viral kinetics.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  These results suggested that our formula combined with viral kinetics provides a clear direction of therapy for each patient and enables the best tailored treatment.
authors.affiliation: Department of Internal Medicine, School of Medicine, Keio University, 35 Shinanomachi, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 1608582, Japan. hsaito@sc.itc.keio.ac.jp
authors.forename: Hidetsugu
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Saito
authors.forename: Hirotoshi
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Ebinuma
authors.forename: Keisuke
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Ojiro
authors.forename: Kanji
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Wakabayashi
authors.forename: Mika
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Inoue
authors.forename: Shinichiro
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Tada
authors.forename: Toshifumi
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Hibi
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000998:Antiviral Agents / Q000008:administration & dosage*; D054796:Drug Dosage Calculations; D004359:Drug Therapy, Combination; D005260:Female; D005838:Genotype; D016174:Hepacivirus / Q000235:genetics / Q000254:growth & development; D019698:Hepatitis C, Chronic / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000188:drug therapy*; D006801:Humans; D000077190:Interferon alpha-2; D016898:Interferon-alpha / Q000008:administration & dosage*; D007700:Kinetics; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D018579:Patient Selection; D011092:Polyethylene Glycols / Q000008:administration & dosage*; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012367:RNA, Viral / Q000097:blood; D012372:ROC Curve; D011994:Recombinant Proteins; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012254:Ribavirin / Q000008:administration & dosage*; D016896:Treatment Outcome; D019562:Viral Load; D055815:Young Adult
chemical_list: D000998:Antiviral Agents; D000077190:Interferon alpha-2; D016898:Interferon-alpha; D012367:RNA, Viral; D011994:Recombinant Proteins; D011092:Polyethylene Glycols; D012254:Ribavirin; C417083:peginterferon alfa-2b