title: Decision analysis to compare treatment strategies for Stage I/favorable histology Wilms tumor.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Decision analysis was used to clarify differences in survival and complication rates comparing surgery alone versus surgery plus chemotherapy for Stage I, favorable histology Wilms tumor patients.
  
  
  METHODS
  A state transition model was used to simulate treatment with nephrectomy-only, nephrectomy with adjuvant vincristine (VCR) or with vincristine plus dactinomcyin (NWTS Regimen EE4A). Rates of relapse and complications of therapy were obtained from the literature. In sensitivity analysis, the model was probed for the value(s) at which the treatment of choice changes.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The overall survival (OS) is essentially the same for patients treated with any of the three strategies (OS(Nephrectomy) = 98.8%; OS(EE4A) = 98.8%; OS(VCR) = 98.6%). Rates of serious long-term complications in the surviving population are also similar across treatment strategies (nephrectomy = 1.4%; VCR = 1.2%; EE4A = 0.3%). Both the progression and salvage rates after nephrectomy-only would have to be much worse than expected for nephrectomy-only to be an unacceptable strategy.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The differences in overall survival and rates of long-term complications between the three different initial strategies were negligible in the model. Based on this analysis, it was decided by the Children's Oncology Group that it was acceptable to continue to include nephrectomy without adjuvant chemotherapy as an experimental arm of the low risk Wilms tumor protocol with stringent eligibility criteria and close follow-up. Decision analysis can have a role in clinical trial design by making the tradeoffs between strategies more explicit. The robustness of these conclusions can be tested by widely varying the underlying assumptions.
authors.affiliation: Department of Pediatric Oncology, Dana-Farber/Children's Hospital Cancer Care, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts 02115, USA. lindsay_frazier@dfci.harvard.edu
authors.forename: A Lindsay
authors.initials: AL
authors.lastname: Frazier
authors.forename: Robert C
authors.initials: RC
authors.lastname: Shamberger
authors.forename: Tara O
authors.initials: TO
authors.lastname: Henderson
authors.forename: Lisa
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Diller
mesh_terms: D000970:Antineoplastic Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D002986:Clinical Trials as Topic; D003131:Combined Modality Therapy; D003609:Dactinomycin / Q000008:administration & dosage; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D006801:Humans; D009367:Neoplasm Staging; D009392:Nephrectomy; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D014750:Vincristine / Q000008:administration & dosage; D009396:Wilms Tumor / Q000188:drug therapy* / Q000401:mortality / Q000601:surgery*
chemical_list: D000970:Antineoplastic Agents; D003609:Dactinomycin; D014750:Vincristine