title: Potential impact of introduction of foot-and-mouth disease from wild pigs into commercial livestock premises in California.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To estimate potential spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) if introduced from wild pigs in California and to evaluate efficacies of various control strategies.
  
  
  METHODS
  Data for California livestock and from hunter surveys on wild pigs in California.
  
  
  METHODS
  A spatial, stochastic simulation model was used to simulate FMD epidemics that might occur if a dairy or beef herd were infected from contact with a wild pig. Index herd location and type were examined, in addition to different statewide movement ban (SWMB) durations, to determine their effect on extent of the epidemic.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Duration, number of infected premises, size of simulated outbreak, number of culled animals, and spatial distribution of infected herds resulting from the simulated outbreaks varied considerably among geographic regions, depending on index case type and location. Outbreaks beginning in the southern region of California were consistently longest, whereas those beginning in the northern region were shortest. The largest outbreaks resulted from index cases located in the southern and valley regions, whereas outbreaks were smallest when originating in the Sonoma or northern regions. For all regions, when the index herd was a dairy herd, size and duration of the outbreak were consistently reduced with implementation of an SWMB >or= 3 days.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Introduction of FMDV from wild pigs into a dairy or beef herd could result in a large and rapidly spreading outbreak, potentially affecting large numbers of herds. Size and duration of the outbreak might be reduced with an SWMB; however, the impact is highly dependent on the index herd type and location.
authors.affiliation: Center for Animal Disease Modeling and Surveillance, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California-Davis, Davis, CA 95616, USA.
authors.forename: Mario
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Pineda-Krch
authors.forename: Joshua M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: O'Brien
authors.forename: Clair
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Thunes
authors.forename: Tim E
authors.initials: TE
authors.lastname: Carpenter
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D000829:Animals, Domestic; D000835:Animals, Wild; D002140:California / Q000453:epidemiology; D002417:Cattle; D002418:Cattle Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission*; D003198:Computer Simulation; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000662:veterinary; D004197:Disease Reservoirs; D005536:Foot-and-Mouth Disease / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission*; D008954:Models, Biological; D013552:Swine; D013553:Swine Diseases / Q000635:transmission*