title: Changing climate in Hungary and trends in the annual number of heat stress days.
abstract: Global climate change can have serious direct effects on animal health and production through heat stress. In Hungary, the number of heat stress days per year (YNHD), i.e., days when the temperature humidity index (THI) is above a specific comfort threshold, has increased in recent years based on observed meteorological data. Between 1973 and 2008, the countrywide average increase in YNHD was 4.1% per year. Climate scenarios based on regional climate models (RCM) were used to predict possible changes in YNHD for the near future (2021-2050) relative to the reference period (1961-1990). This comparison shows that, in Hungary, the 30-year mean of YNHD is expected to increase by between 1 and 27 days, depending on the RCM used. Half of the scenarios investigated in this study predicted that, in large parts of Hungary, YNHD will increase by at least 1 week. However, the increase observed in the past, and that predicted for the near future, is spatially heterogeneous, and areas that currently have large cattle populations are expected to be affected more severely than other regions.
authors.affiliation: Adaptation to Climate Change Research Group, Hungarian Academy of Sciences-Corvinus University Budapest (HAS-CUB), Villányi út 29-43, 1118, Budapest, Hungary. Solymosi.Norbert@gmail.com
authors.forename: Norbert
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Solymosi
authors.forename: Csaba
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Torma
authors.forename: Anikó
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Kern
authors.forename: Akos
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Maróti-Agóts
authors.forename: Zoltán
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Barcza
authors.forename: László
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Könyves
authors.forename: Olaf
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Berke
authors.forename: Jeno
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Reiczigel
mesh_terms: D000822:Animal Husbandry; D000824:Animal Nutritional Physiological Phenomena; D000818:Animals; D002417:Cattle; D002418:Cattle Diseases / Q000209:etiology; D057231:Climate Change; D005260:Female; D018882:Heat Stress Disorders / Q000662:veterinary; D006358:Hot Temperature / Q000009:adverse effects*; D006814:Hungary; D007774:Lactation; D008954:Models, Biological; D013997:Time Factors