title: Falls prediction in elderly people: a 1-year prospective study.
abstract: The aim of the present study was to determine whether force plate variables in single- and dual-task situations are able to predict the risk of multiple falls in a community-dwelling elderly population. Two hundred and seventy elderly persons (225 females, 45 males; age, 73+/-7 years) performed balance assessment with and without vision. Seven force plate variables were assessed to predict the risk of multiple falls; maximum displacement in the anteroposterior and medial-lateral directions (Max-AP, Max-ML), mean displacement in the medial-lateral direction (MML), the root mean square amplitude in anteroposterior and medial-lateral directions (RMS-AP, RMS-ML), the average speed of displacement (V), and the area of the 95th percentile ellipse (AoE). Falls were prospectively recorded during the following year. A total of 437 registered falls occurred during monitoring period. The force plate variable RMS-ML in the single-task condition (odds ratio, 21.8) predicted multiple falls together with the following covariables: history of multiple falls (odds ratio, 5.6), use of medications (fall-risk medications or multiple medicine use; odds ratio, 2.3), and gender (odds ratio, 0.34). Multiple fallers had a narrower stance width than non-fallers.
authors.affiliation: Department of Rheumatology, University Hospital Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland. jaap.swanenburg@usz.ch
authors.forename: Jaap
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Swanenburg
authors.forename: Eling D
authors.initials: ED
authors.lastname: de Bruin
authors.forename: Daniel
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Uebelhart
authors.forename: Theo
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Mulder
mesh_terms: D000058:Accidental Falls; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D005260:Female; D015577:Geriatric Assessment; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D004856:Postural Balance / Q000502:physiology*; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D018709:Statistics, Nonparametric; D014785:Vision, Ocular