title: Parameter uncertainty analysis of non-point source pollution from different land use types.
abstract: Land use type is one of the most important factors that affect the uncertainty in non-point source (NPS) pollution simulation. In this study, seventeen sensitive parameters were screened from the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for parameter uncertainty analysis for different land use types in the Daning River Watershed of the Three Gorges Reservoir area, China. First-Order Error Analysis (FOEA) method was adopted to analyze the effect of parameter uncertainty on model outputs under three types of land use, namely, plantation, forest and grassland. The model outputs selected in this study consisted of runoff, sediment yield, organic nitrogen (N), and total phosphorus (TP). The results indicated that the uncertainty conferred by the parameters differed among the three land use types. In forest and grassland, the parameter uncertainty in NPS pollution was primarily associated with runoff processes, but in plantation, the main uncertain parameters were related to runoff process and soil properties. Taken together, the study suggested that adjusting the structure of land use and controlling fertilizer use are helpful methods to control the NPS pollution in the Daning River Watershed.
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, P.R. China. z.y.shen@163.com
authors.forename: Zhen-yao
authors.initials: ZY
authors.lastname: Shen
authors.forename: Qian
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Hong
authors.forename: Hong
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Yu
authors.forename: Jun-feng
authors.initials: JF
authors.lastname: Niu
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture; D002681:China; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D004784:Environmental Monitoring / Q000379:methods* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D004787:Environmental Pollution / Q000032:analysis* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D005843:Geography; D019015:Geologic Sediments / Q000032:analysis* / Q000737:chemistry; D009584:Nitrogen / Q000032:analysis; D009930:Organic Chemicals / Q000032:analysis; D010758:Phosphorus / Q000032:analysis; D018570:Risk Assessment; D045483:Rivers; D012621:Seasons; D012989:Soil Pollutants / Q000032:analysis* / Q000737:chemistry; D014197:Trees; D035501:Uncertainty
chemical_list: D009930:Organic Chemicals; D012989:Soil Pollutants; D010758:Phosphorus; D009584:Nitrogen