Model for end-stage liver disease versus the Child-Pugh score in predicting the post-transplant 3-month and 1-year mortality in a cohort of Chinese recipients.
OBJECTIVE
This study evaluated the performance of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) in predicting post-transplant survival in a cohort of Chinese patients, and compared its predictive ability with that of the Child-Pugh score.


METHODS
The study enrolled 117 adult Chinese patients undergoing liver transplantation for benign end-stage liver diseases from January 1998 to January 2007 to evaluate the baseline characteristics and outcomes.


RESULTS
In a median follow-up duration of 90 weeks (range 0.2-373 weeks), 30 patients died. The 3-month and 1-year mortality rates of recipients in group 1 (MELD score <28) were 1.1% and 5.6%, in group 2 (MELD score 28-38) 18.8% and 50.0%, and in group 3 (MELD score >38) 91.7% and 91.7%, respectively. A statistical difference was observed in the mortality rates between the three groups (P < 0.001). At 3 months, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the MELD (0.950) was significantly higher than that of the Child-Pugh score (0.810; P < 0.05).


CONCLUSIONS
Both the MELD and Child-Pugh score are valid models to predict the short-term or medium-term outcome of Chinese recipients undergoing liver transplantation for benign end-stage liver diseases. The MELD is superior to the Child-Pugh score in predicting the 3-month mortality post-transplantation.
Guo
Zhiyong
Z
Organ Transplant Center of the First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, No. 58 Zhongshan er Road, Guangzhou, 510080, PR China.
He
Xiaoshun
X
Wu
Linwei
L
Ju
Weiqiang
W
Hu
Anbin
A
Tai
Qiang
Q
Wang
Dongping
D
Ma
Yi
Y
Wang
Guodong
G
Zhu
Xiaofeng
X
Huang
Jiefu
J
D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D019540:Area Under Curve; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D015331:Cohort Studies; D016001:Confidence Intervals; D058625:End Stage Liver Disease / Q000401:mortality* / Q000601:surgery; D005260:Female; D006305:Health Status Indicators; D006801:Humans; D053208:Kaplan-Meier Estimate; D016031:Liver Transplantation / Q000401:mortality* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011379:Prognosis; D012372:ROC Curve; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D018709:Statistics, Nonparametric; D013997:Time Factors; D055815:Young Adult