Epidemics with multistrain interactions: the interplay between cross immunity and antibody-dependent enhancement.
This paper examines the interplay of the effect of cross immunity and antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) in multistrain diseases. Motivated by dengue fever, we study a model for the spreading of epidemics in a population with multistrain interactions mediated by both partial temporary cross immunity and ADE. Although ADE models have previously been observed to cause chaotic outbreaks, we show analytically that weak cross immunity has a stabilizing effect on the system. That is, the onset of disease fluctuations requires a larger value of ADE with small cross immunity than without. However, strong cross immunity is shown numerically to cause oscillations and chaotic outbreaks even for low values of ADE.
Bianco
Simone
S
Department of Applied Science, The College of William and Mary, Williamsburg, Virginia 23187, USA. sbianco@wm.edu
Shaw
Leah B
LB
Schwartz
Ira B
IB
D000818:Animals; D019067:Antibody-Dependent Enhancement / Q000276:immunology*; D003141:Communicable Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000276:immunology*; D003198:Computer Simulation; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D018562:Disease Transmission, Infectious / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D007113:Immunity, Innate / Q000276:immunology*; D018448:Models, Immunological; D017711:Nonlinear Dynamics