title: Raised adolescent body mass index predicts the development of adiposity and a central distribution of body fat in adulthood: a longitudinal study.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To test the hypothesis that adolescent body mass index (BMI) tracks into adulthood and can be used as a predictor of obesity and/or central adiposity in adulthood.
  
  
  METHODS
  A prospective cohort study following up 111 female and 84 male subjects who participated in dietary and anthropometric surveys when aged 12 years (in 1979-1981) and 33 years (in 2000-2001). At both time points, height and weight were measured and BMI calculated. At 33 years, waist circumference (WC) and hip circumference were also measured and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) calculated.
  
  
  RESULTS
  In the male and female participants, BMI at 12 years was associated significantly with BMI at 33 years (R = 0.58 and 0.53, respectively, both p < 0.01) and WC at 33 years (R = 0.58 and 0.53, both p < 0.01). The probability of being an obese adult increased with rising adolescent BMI: normal weight male (BMI < 20.89 kg/m(2)) and female subjects (BMI < 21.20 kg/m(2)) at 12 years had a 20% and a 7% chance of being obese at 33 years, respectively; the probabilities for obese male (BMI > or =25.58 kg/m(2)) and female subjects (BMI > or =26.05 kg/m(2)) were 83 and 64%. The corresponding probability of becoming centrally obese (measured by WC) increased from 17 and 16% in male and female subjects of a normal weight to 58 and 59% in those being obese.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Adolescent BMI is a good predictor of adult BMI and WC and the likelihood of becoming obese and/or centrally obese in adulthood.
authors.affiliation: Institute of Health and Society, Human Nutrition Research Centre, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK. a.craigie@dundee.ac.uk
authors.forename: Angela M
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Craigie
authors.forename: John N S
authors.initials: JN
authors.lastname: Matthews
authors.forename: Andrew J
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Rugg-Gunn
authors.forename: Amelia A
authors.initials: AA
authors.lastname: Lake
authors.forename: John C
authors.initials: JC
authors.lastname: Mathers
authors.forename: Ashley J
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Adamson
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D050218:Body Fat Distribution / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D015992:Body Mass Index; D002648:Child; D005260:Female; D006306:Health Surveys; D006801:Humans; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D009765:Obesity / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology*; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012307:Risk Factors; D055105:Waist Circumference