title: Using predictive microbiology to evaluate risk and reduce economic losses associated with raw meats and poultry exposed to temperature abuse.
abstract: The Department of Defense suffers economic losses when temperature-abused raw meat and poultry are condemned. Current US Army guidance regarding time/temperature limits associated with these foods (RISK-3 category) is ultraconservative, especially at lower temperatures. We have developed a more accurate, yet conservative or "fail-safe" computer-based tool for predicting pathogen growth in raw meat and poultry. In 20 trials of this tool, growth (> 0.3 log colony-forming unit increase) or no growth of Salmonella serovars, Escherichia coli O157:H7, and Staphylococcus aureus was accurately predicted 67% to 95% of the time for inoculated and temperature-abused poultry products and ground beef. Fail-safe predictions were obtained in trials for which the tool was inaccurate. The predictive tool is ready for further validation trials and field testing. Using this tool as a supplement to the current guidance will decrease losses associated with the condemnation of raw meat and poultry products exposed to short-term temperature abuse.
authors.affiliation: University of Wisconsin-Madison, USA.
authors.forename: Greg M
authors.initials: GM
authors.lastname: Burnham
authors.forename: Steven C
authors.initials: SC
authors.lastname: Ingham
authors.forename: Melody A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Fanslau
authors.forename: Barbara H
authors.initials: BH
authors.lastname: Ingham
authors.forename: John P
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: Norback
authors.forename: Donald W
authors.initials: DW
authors.lastname: Schaffner
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D002417:Cattle; D019453:Escherichia coli O157 / Q000254:growth & development; D005516:Food Microbiology; D005523:Food Supply / Q000191:economics* / Q000592:standards; D008460:Meat / Q000382:microbiology*; D008887:Military Medicine; D008889:Military Personnel; D011200:Poultry / Q000382:microbiology; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012449:Safety; D012475:Salmonella / Q000254:growth & development; D013210:Staphylococcus / Q000254:growth & development; D013552:Swine; D013696:Temperature; D014481:United States; D014731:Veterinary Service, Military