title: Projecting the burden of diabetes in Australia--what is the size of the matter?
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To analyse the implications of using different methods to predict diabetes prevalence for the future.
  
  
  METHODS
  Different methods used to predict diabetes were compared and recommendations are made.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  We recommend that all projections take a conservative approach to diabetes prevalence prediction and present a 'base case' using the most robust, contemporary data available. We also recommend that uncertainty analyses be included in all analyses.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Despite variation in assumptions and methodology used, all the published predictions demonstrate that diabetes is an escalating problem for Australia. We can safely assume that unless trends in diabetes incidence are reversed there will be at least 2 million Australian adults with diabetes by 2025. If obesity and diabetes incidence trends, continue upwards, and mortality continues to decline, up to 3 million people will have diabetes by 2025, with the figure closer to 3.5 million by 2033. The impact of this for Australia has not been measured.
authors.affiliation: Baker IDI Heart and Diabetes Institute, 250 Kooyong Road, Caulfield, Victoria 3162. dianna.magliano@bakeridi.edu.au
authors.forename: Dianna J
authors.initials: DJ
authors.lastname: Magliano
authors.forename: Anna
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Peeters
authors.forename: Theo
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Vos
authors.forename: Richard
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Sicree
authors.forename: Jonathan
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Shaw
authors.forename: Colin
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Sindall
authors.forename: Michelle
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Haby
authors.forename: Stephen J
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: Begg
authors.forename: Paul Z
authors.initials: PZ
authors.lastname: Zimmet
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D001315:Australia / Q000453:epidemiology; D017281:Cost of Illness; D003920:Diabetes Mellitus / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000401:mortality; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D008875:Middle Aged; D055815:Young Adult