Projecting the burden of diabetes in Australia--what is the size of the matter?
OBJECTIVE
To analyse the implications of using different methods to predict diabetes prevalence for the future.


METHODS
Different methods used to predict diabetes were compared and recommendations are made.


CONCLUSIONS
We recommend that all projections take a conservative approach to diabetes prevalence prediction and present a 'base case' using the most robust, contemporary data available. We also recommend that uncertainty analyses be included in all analyses.


CONCLUSIONS
Despite variation in assumptions and methodology used, all the published predictions demonstrate that diabetes is an escalating problem for Australia. We can safely assume that unless trends in diabetes incidence are reversed there will be at least 2 million Australian adults with diabetes by 2025. If obesity and diabetes incidence trends, continue upwards, and mortality continues to decline, up to 3 million people will have diabetes by 2025, with the figure closer to 3.5 million by 2033. The impact of this for Australia has not been measured.
Magliano
Dianna J
DJ
Baker IDI Heart and Diabetes Institute, 250 Kooyong Road, Caulfield, Victoria 3162. dianna.magliano@bakeridi.edu.au
Peeters
Anna
A
Vos
Theo
T
Sicree
Richard
R
Shaw
Jonathan
J
Sindall
Colin
C
Haby
Michelle
M
Begg
Stephen J
SJ
Zimmet
Paul Z
PZ
D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D001315:Australia / Q000453:epidemiology; D017281:Cost of Illness; D003920:Diabetes Mellitus / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000401:mortality; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D008875:Middle Aged; D055815:Young Adult