title: Amino-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide improves cardiovascular and cerebrovascular risk prediction in the population: the Rotterdam study.
abstract: Increased circulating amino-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic (NT-proBNP) levels are a marker of cardiac dysfunction but also associate with coronary heart disease and stroke. We aimed to investigate whether increased circulating NT-proBNP levels have additive prognostic value for first cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events beyond classic risk factors. In a community-based cohort of 5063 participants free of cardiovascular disease, aged > or =55 years, circulating NT-proBNP levels and cardiovascular risk factors were measured. Participants were followed for the occurrence of first major fatal or nonfatal cardiovascular event. A total of 420 participants developed a first cardiovascular event (108 fatal). After adjustment for classic risk factors, the hazard ratio for cardiovascular events was 2.32 (95% CI: 1.55 to 2.70) in men and 3.08 (95% CI: 1.91 to 3.74) in women for participants with NT-proBNP in the upper compared with the lowest tertile. Corresponding hazard ratios for coronary heart disease, heart failure, and ischemic stroke were 2.01 (95% CI: 1.14 to 2.59), 2.90 (95% CI: 1.33 to 4.34), and 2.06 (95% CI: 0.91 to 3.18) for men and 2.95 (95% CI: 1.30 to 4.55), 5.93 (95% CI: 2.04 to 11.2), and 2.07 (95% CI: 1.00 to 2.97) for women. Incorporation of NT-proBNP in the classic risk model significantly improved the C-statistic both in men and women and resulted in a net reclassification improvement of 9.2% (95% CI: 3.5% to 14.9%; P=0.001) in men and 13.3% (95% CI: 5.9% to 20.8%; P<0.001) in women. We conclude that, in an asymptomatic older population, NT-proBNP improves risk prediction not only of heart failure but also of cardiovascular disease in general beyond classic risk factors, resulting in a substantial reclassification of participants to a lower or higher risk category.
authors.affiliation: Department of Internal Medicine, Room D432, Erasmus Medical Center, 3015 CE Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Joost H W
authors.initials: JH
authors.lastname: Rutten
authors.forename: Francesco U S
authors.initials: FU
authors.lastname: Mattace-Raso
authors.forename: Ewout W
authors.initials: EW
authors.lastname: Steyerberg
authors.forename: Jan
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Lindemans
authors.forename: Albert
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Hofman
authors.forename: Renske G
authors.initials: RG
authors.lastname: Wieberdink
authors.forename: Monique M B
authors.initials: MM
authors.lastname: Breteler
authors.forename: Jacqueline C M
authors.initials: JC
authors.lastname: Witteman
authors.forename: Anton H
authors.initials: AH
authors.lastname: van den Meiracker
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D001794:Blood Pressure; D002545:Brain Ischemia / Q000097:blood / Q000401:mortality; D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000097:blood* / Q000401:mortality*; D003327:Coronary Disease / Q000097:blood / Q000401:mortality; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006333:Heart Failure / Q000097:blood / Q000401:mortality; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D020097:Natriuretic Peptide, Brain / Q000097:blood*; D009426:Netherlands / Q000453:epidemiology; D010446:Peptide Fragments / Q000097:blood*; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D012307:Risk Factors; D017678:Sex Distribution; D020521:Stroke / Q000097:blood / Q000401:mortality
chemical_list: D010446:Peptide Fragments; C109794:pro-brain natriuretic peptide (1-76); D020097:Natriuretic Peptide, Brain