title: [Progression toward type-2 diabetes mellitus among Mexican pre-diabetics. Assessment of a cohort].
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Pre-diabetic Latino subjects have shown higher incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM2) compared with other populations. The incidence is unknown in the Mexican population. Our aim was to identify the annual incidence of DM2 among a Mexican pre-diabetic population.
  
  
  METHODS
  An inception cohort of healthy Mexican patients was followed from 2001 to 2006. Those who fulfilled diagnosis of DM2 (ADA criteria) were registered at one and 2 years of follow-up among pre-diabetic and normoglucemic individuals. We compared relevant variables between both groups, those who developed diabetes and those who did not.
  
  
  RESULTS
  656 subjects were included; at one year, 14 patients were diagnosed with DM2, 11 among pre-diabetics, incidence of 4.5 %; 3 among normoglucemic subjects, incidence of 0.72 %. The relative risk for the development of DM2 in the pre-diabetic group was 7.7 (IC95 % 2.1-27.9), and among the normoglucemic group of 1.04 (IC95 % 1.02-1.08). At the 2nd year, DM2 incidence was 7.6 % in pre-diabetics, and 0.6 % in normoglucemics. Risk factors associated were higher fast glucose and greater BMI.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  We found a constant annual incidence of DM2 among prediabetics of 6 cases per 100 patient/year in follow-up. Higher fast glucose determinations and greater BMI are the main determinants for DM2 development.
authors.affiliation: División de Medicina Interna, Hospital Central Sur de Alta Especialidad de Petróleos Mexicanos, México DF, México. martincoro@yahoo.com
authors.forename: Martín
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Coronado-Malagón
authors.forename: J Iván
authors.initials: JI
authors.lastname: Gómez-Vargas
authors.forename: Diego
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Espinoza-Peralta
authors.forename: Alejandro
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Arce-Salinas
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000453:epidemiology*; D018450:Disease Progression; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008800:Mexico; D008875:Middle Aged; D011236:Prediabetic State / Q000453:epidemiology*; D011446:Prospective Studies; D055815:Young Adult