title: Estimating least-developed countries' vulnerability to climate-related extreme events over the next 50 years.
abstract: When will least developed countries be most vulnerable to climate change, given the influence of projected socio-economic development? The question is important, not least because current levels of international assistance to support adaptation lag more than an order of magnitude below what analysts estimate to be needed, and scaling up support could take many years. In this paper, we examine this question using an empirically derived model of human losses to climate-related extreme events, as an indicator of vulnerability and the need for adaptation assistance. We develop a set of 50-year scenarios for these losses in one country, Mozambique, using high-resolution climate projections, and then extend the results to a sample of 23 least-developed countries. Our approach takes into account both potential changes in countries' exposure to climatic extreme events, and socio-economic development trends that influence countries' own adaptive capacities. Our results suggest that the effects of socio-economic development trends may begin to offset rising climate exposure in the second quarter of the century, and that it is in the period between now and then that vulnerability will rise most quickly. This implies an urgency to the need for international assistance to finance adaptation.
authors.affiliation: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria. patt@iiasa.ac.at
authors.forename: Anthony G
authors.initials: AG
authors.lastname: Patt
authors.forename: Mark
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Tadross
authors.forename: Patrick
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Nussbaumer
authors.forename: Kwabena
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Asante
authors.forename: Marc
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Metzger
authors.forename: Jose
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Rafael
authors.forename: Anne
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Goujon
authors.forename: Geoff
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Brundrit
mesh_terms: D019049:Developed Countries / Q000191:economics*; D057232:Global Warming; D006801:Humans; D007391:International Cooperation; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors; D013997:Time Factors