title: Modeled impact of anthropogenic warming on the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes.
abstract: Several recent models suggest that the frequency of Atlantic tropical cyclones could decrease as the climate warms. However, these models are unable to reproduce storms of category 3 or higher intensity. We explored the influence of future global warming on Atlantic hurricanes with a downscaling strategy by using an operational hurricane-prediction model that produces a realistic distribution of intense hurricane activity for present-day conditions. The model projects nearly a doubling of the frequency of category 4 and 5 storms by the end of the 21st century, despite a decrease in the overall frequency of tropical cyclones, when the downscaling is based on the ensemble mean of 18 global climate-change projections. The largest increase is projected to occur in the Western Atlantic, north of 20 degrees N.
authors.affiliation: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, 201 Forrestal Road, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA. Morris.Bender@noaa.gov
authors.forename: Morris A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Bender
authors.forename: Thomas R
authors.initials: TR
authors.lastname: Knutson
authors.forename: Robert E
authors.initials: RE
authors.lastname: Tuleya
authors.forename: Joseph J
authors.initials: JJ
authors.lastname: Sirutis
authors.forename: Gabriel A
authors.initials: GA
authors.lastname: Vecchi
authors.forename: Stephen T
authors.initials: ST
authors.lastname: Garner
authors.forename: Isaac M
authors.initials: IM
authors.lastname: Held