Assessing risk of sexually abusive behavior among youth in a child welfare sample.
Statutory management of juvenile sexual offenders demands reliable, valid methods for assessing the risk posed by these youth. This study examined the predictive validity of the J-SOAP-II using samples of adolescent and pre-adolescent boys who were wards of the Massachusetts Department of Social Services. The base rate for sexual recidivism among the adolescents (14-16%) is generally in line with what has been reported. The equivalent base rate for the pre-adolescents (25-28%), however, was notably higher. Although the J-SOAP-II was developed for adolescents, the scale also worked with the pre-adolescents in predicting sexual recidivism over 7 years, with AUC values of 0.77, 0.74, 0.77, and 0.80 for Scales 1, 3, 4, and Total among the pre-adolescents and AUC values of 0.80, 0.82, and 0.83 for Scales 1, 4, and Total among the adolescents. Discussion focuses on extant J-SOAP research and sample dependent variability, as well as social policy implications.
Prentky
Robert A
RA
Fairleigh Dickinson University Teaneck NJ, USA. rprentky@fdu.edu
Li
Nien-Chen
NC
Righthand
Sue
S
Schuler
Ann
A
Cavanaugh
Deborah
D
Lee
Austin F
AF
D000293:Adolescent; D002648:Child; D002669:Child Welfare; D006801:Humans; D007604:Juvenile Delinquency; D008297:Male; D011594:Psychometrics; D012008:Recurrence; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012742:Sex Offenses; D012725:Sexual Behavior; D055815:Young Adult