title: Athlete atypicity on the edge of human achievement: performances stagnate after the last peak, in 1988.
abstract: The growth law for the development of top athletes performances remains unknown in quantifiable sport events. Here we present a growth model for 41351 best performers from 70 track and field (T&F) and swimming events and detail their characteristics over the modern Olympic era. We show that 64% of T&F events no longer improved since 1993, while 47% of swimming events stagnated after 1990, prior to a second progression step starting in 2000. Since then, 100% of swimming events continued to progress.We also provide a measurement of the atypicity for the 3919 best performances (BP) of each year in every event. The secular evolution of this parameter for T&F reveals four peaks; the most recent (1988) followed by a major stagnation. This last peak may correspond to the most recent successful attempt to push forward human physiological limits. No atypicity trend is detected in swimming. The upcoming rarefaction of new records in sport may be delayed by technological innovations, themselves depending upon economical constraints.
authors.affiliation: IRMES, Insep, Paris, France. geoffroy.berthelot@insep.fr
authors.forename: Geoffroy
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Berthelot
authors.forename: Muriel
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Tafflet
authors.forename: Nour
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: El Helou
authors.forename: Stéphane
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Len
authors.forename: Sylvie
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Escolano
authors.forename: Marion
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Guillaume
authors.forename: Hala
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Nassif
authors.forename: Julien
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Tolaïni
authors.forename: Valérie
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Thibault
authors.forename: François Denis
authors.initials: FD
authors.lastname: Desgorces
authors.forename: Olivier
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Hermine
authors.forename: Jean-François
authors.initials: JF
authors.lastname: Toussaint
mesh_terms: D006801:Humans; D013177:Sports; D013647:Task Performance and Analysis