title: Predicting onset of bipolar disorder from subsyndromal symptoms: a signal question?
abstract: This issue reports a community-based study quantifying the extent to which subthreshold hypomanic or depressive symptoms in childhood or adolescence predicted subsequent formal bipolar disorder status and mental health service attendance. This editorial emphasises the low predictive power of the signal and considers early intervention implications.
authors.forename: Gordon
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Parker
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D001714:Bipolar Disorder / Q000175:diagnosis*; D003863:Depression / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000523:psychology; D018450:Disease Progression; D042241:Early Diagnosis; D006801:Humans; D011379:Prognosis; D011594:Psychometrics