title: Assessing risk of sexually abusive behavior among youth in a child welfare sample.
abstract: Statutory management of juvenile sexual offenders demands reliable, valid methods for assessing the risk posed by these youth. This study examined the predictive validity of the J-SOAP-II using samples of adolescent and pre-adolescent boys who were wards of the Massachusetts Department of Social Services. The base rate for sexual recidivism among the adolescents (14-16%) is generally in line with what has been reported. The equivalent base rate for the pre-adolescents (25-28%), however, was notably higher. Although the J-SOAP-II was developed for adolescents, the scale also worked with the pre-adolescents in predicting sexual recidivism over 7 years, with AUC values of 0.77, 0.74, 0.77, and 0.80 for Scales 1, 3, 4, and Total among the pre-adolescents and AUC values of 0.80, 0.82, and 0.83 for Scales 1, 4, and Total among the adolescents. Discussion focuses on extant J-SOAP research and sample dependent variability, as well as social policy implications.
authors.affiliation: Fairleigh Dickinson University Teaneck NJ, USA. rprentky@fdu.edu
authors.forename: Robert A
authors.initials: RA
authors.lastname: Prentky
authors.forename: Nien-Chen
authors.initials: NC
authors.lastname: Li
authors.forename: Sue
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Righthand
authors.forename: Ann
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Schuler
authors.forename: Deborah
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Cavanaugh
authors.forename: Austin F
authors.initials: AF
authors.lastname: Lee
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D002648:Child; D002669:Child Welfare; D006801:Humans; D007604:Juvenile Delinquency; D008297:Male; D011594:Psychometrics; D012008:Recurrence; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012742:Sex Offenses; D012725:Sexual Behavior; D055815:Young Adult