title: Cost-effectiveness of pharmaceutical-based pandemic influenza mitigation strategies.
abstract: We used a hybrid transmission and economic model to evaluate the relative merits of stockpiling antiviral drugs and vaccine for pandemic influenza mitigation. In the absence of any intervention, our base-case assumptions generated a population clinical attack rate of 31.1%. For at least some parameter values, population prepandemic vaccination strategies were effective at containing an outbreak of pandemic influenza until the arrival of a matched vaccine. Because of the uncertain nature of many parameters, we used a probabilistic approach to determine the most cost-effective strategies. At a willingness to pay of >A$24,000 per life-year saved, more than half the simulations showed that a prepandemic vaccination program combined with antiviral treatment was cost-effective in Australia.
authors.affiliation: University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
authors.forename: Anthony T
authors.initials: AT
authors.lastname: Newall
authors.forename: James G
authors.initials: JG
authors.lastname: Wood
authors.forename: Noemie
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Oudin
authors.forename: C Raina
authors.initials: CR
authors.lastname: MacIntyre
mesh_terms: D000998:Antiviral Agents / Q000191:economics* / Q000600:supply & distribution; D001315:Australia / Q000453:epidemiology; D003140:Communicable Disease Control / Q000191:economics; D003362:Cost-Benefit Analysis; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000191:economics* / Q000517:prevention & control*; D006801:Humans; D007252:Influenza Vaccines / Q000191:economics* / Q000600:supply & distribution; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000191:economics* / Q000517:prevention & control*; D018803:Models, Economic
chemical_list: D000998:Antiviral Agents; D007252:Influenza Vaccines