A computer model of dementia prevalence in Australia: foreseeing outcomes of delaying dementia onset, slowing disease progression, and eradicating dementia types.
BACKGROUND
A computer model was designed to test hypothetical scenarios regarding dementia prevalence in Australia (2001-2040).


METHODS
The study implemented 3 scenarios: delaying dementia onset, slowing disease progression and, in a previously unpublished experiment, eradicating dementia types. Sensitivity analysis and parameter variation were the main methods of experimentation.


RESULTS
The model predicts that delaying dementia onset by 5 years will reduce the 2040 prevalence by 37%. An onset delay of 2 years, introduced in 2010, will reduce the 2040 prevalence by 16%. Slowing disease progression increases the 2040 prevalence by 4-7%. Total eradication of Alzheimer's disease (currently approximately 50% of all dementia cases) in 2020 will decrease the 2040 prevalence by 42%.


CONCLUSIONS
Computer modeling of future scenarios and interventions helps health and aged care planners understand the likely challenges society will face with the ageing of the world's population.
Dementia Collaborative Research Centre, School of Psychiatry, University of New South Wales, Faculty of Medicine, Sydney, N.S.W., Australia. victor.vickland@unsw.edu.au
Victor
V
Vickland
Geoff
G
McDonnell
Joel
J
Werner
Brian
B
Draper
Lee-Fay
LF
Low
Henry
H
Brodaty
D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D001315:Australia / Q000453:epidemiology; D003198:Computer Simulation; D003704:Dementia / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000628:therapy; D018450:Disease Progression; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011153:Population; D012984:Software; D016896:Treatment Outcome