The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment.
Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth's climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences of different response options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community.
Moss
Richard H
RH
Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory/University of Maryland, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, Maryland 20740, USA. rhm@pnl.gov
Edmonds
Jae A
JA
Hibbard
Kathy A
KA
Manning
Martin R
MR
Rose
Steven K
SK
van Vuuren
Detlef P
DP
Carter
Timothy R
TR
Emori
Seita
S
Kainuma
Mikiko
M
Kram
Tom
T
Meehl
Gerald A
GA
Mitchell
John F B
JF
Nakicenovic
Nebojsa
N
Riahi
Keywan
K
Smith
Steven J
SJ
Stouffer
Ronald J
RJ
Thomson
Allison M
AM
Weyant
John P
JP
Wilbanks
Thomas J
TJ
D004463:Ecology / Q000639:trends*; D057232:Global Warming / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006802:Human Activities; D018570:Risk Assessment; D001335:Vehicle Emissions
D001335:Vehicle Emissions