A computer model of dementia prevalence in Australia: foreseeing outcomes of delaying dementia onset, slowing disease progression, and eradicating dementia types.
BACKGROUND
A computer model was designed to test hypothetical scenarios regarding dementia prevalence in Australia (2001-2040).


METHODS
The study implemented 3 scenarios: delaying dementia onset, slowing disease progression and, in a previously unpublished experiment, eradicating dementia types. Sensitivity analysis and parameter variation were the main methods of experimentation.


RESULTS
The model predicts that delaying dementia onset by 5 years will reduce the 2040 prevalence by 37%. An onset delay of 2 years, introduced in 2010, will reduce the 2040 prevalence by 16%. Slowing disease progression increases the 2040 prevalence by 4-7%. Total eradication of Alzheimer's disease (currently approximately 50% of all dementia cases) in 2020 will decrease the 2040 prevalence by 42%.


CONCLUSIONS
Computer modeling of future scenarios and interventions helps health and aged care planners understand the likely challenges society will face with the ageing of the world's population.
Vickland
Victor
V
Dementia Collaborative Research Centre, School of Psychiatry, University of New South Wales, Faculty of Medicine, Sydney, N.S.W., Australia. victor.vickland@unsw.edu.au
McDonnell
Geoff
G
Werner
Joel
J
Draper
Brian
B
Low
Lee-Fay
LF
Brodaty
Henry
H
D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D001315:Australia / Q000453:epidemiology; D003198:Computer Simulation; D003704:Dementia / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000628:therapy; D018450:Disease Progression; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011153:Population; D012984:Software; D016896:Treatment Outcome