An Interrupted Time-Series Analysis of Durkheim's Social Deregulation Thesis: The Case of the Russian Federation.
The dissolution of the Soviet Union resulted in sudden, widespread, and fundamental changes to Russian society. The former social welfare system-with its broad guarantees of employment, healthcare, education, and other forms of social support-was dismantled in the shift toward democracy, rule of law, and a free-market economy. This unique natural experiment provides a rare opportunity to examine the potentially disintegrative effects of rapid social change on deviance, and thus to evaluate one of Durkheim's core tenets. We took advantage of this opportunity by performing interrupted time-series analyses of annual age-adjusted homicide, suicide, and alcohol-related mortality rates for the Russian Federation using data from 1956 to 2002, with 1992-2002 as the postintervention time-frame. The ARIMA models indicate that, controlling for the long-term processes that generated these three time series, the breakup of the Soviet Union was associated with an appreciable increase in each of the cause-of-death rates. We interpret these findings as being consistent with the Durkheimian hypothesis that rapid social change disrupts social order, thereby increasing the level of crime and deviance.
Pridemore
William Alex
WA
William Alex Pridemore is Associate Professor of Criminal Justice at Indiana University, where he is also affiliated with the Russian and East European Institute. He is a member of the National Consortium on Violence Research. His main research interests include the impact of socioeconomic change and of heavy drinking on homicide and suicide in Russia. Recent publications include a book, Ruling Russia: Law, Crime, and Justice in a Changing Society as well as articles in Social Forces, Addiction, and Justice Quarterly . Mitchell B. Chamlin is Professor of Criminal Justice at the University of Cincinnati. He earned his PhD in Sociology (1985) from SUNY-Albany. His continuing research interests are in longitudinal tests of macro-social theories of crime and crime control and assessing issues surrounding the death penalty debate. Beginning in January 2007, he is Editor of the Journal of Crime and Justice . John K. Cochran is Professor and Associate Chair in the Department of Criminology at the University of South Florida. He earned his PhD in Sociology (1987) from the University of Florida. His scholarly interests include tests of both micro- and macro-social theories of criminal behavior and crime control and assessments of issues surrounding the death penalty debate.
Chamlin
Mitchell B
MB
Cochran
John K
JK