Per capita alcohol consumption and alcohol-related harm in Belarus, 1970-2005.
BACKGROUND
Although alcohol seems to be an important determinant of the mortality crisis in the former Soviet Republic of Belarus, little systematic research has been done on the relationship between alcohol consumption and harm at the aggregate level. The aims of the present study were to estimate the effect of per capita alcohol consumption on all-cause mortality, mortality from alcohol poisoning and hospital admissions for alcohol psychosis in Belarus.


METHODS
Annual data on the three outcomes and alcohol sale per capita for the period 1970-2005 were analysed using the Box-Jenkins technique. Female mortality was included as a control variable and regarded as a proxy for other causal factors. To incorporate the lag structure, a weighted input was used in which a geometrical lag-scheme was applied.


RESULTS
The outcomes suggest that a 1 l increase in consumption was associated with an increase in male all-cause mortality of ∼2.3%. The corresponding figures for alcohol poisoning mortality and alcohol psychosis admissions are 12 and 25%.


CONCLUSIONS
The present study strengthens the notion of alcohol consumption as an important determinant of population health in this part of the world, and thus the notion that alcohol control must be a key priority for Belorussian public health policy.
Norström
Thor
T
Swedish Institute for Social Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden. totto@sofi.su.se
Razvodovsky
Yury
Y
D000328:Adult; D000428:Alcohol Drinking / Q000009:adverse effects / Q000453:epidemiology*; D000435:Alcoholic Intoxication / Q000150:complications / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality; D002423:Cause of Death; D005260:Female; D006760:Hospitalization / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009026:Mortality / Q000639:trends*; D002094:Republic of Belarus / Q000453:epidemiology; D012307:Risk Factors; D017678:Sex Distribution