title: Conditional reasoning in context: a dual-source model of probabilistic inference.
abstract: A dual-source model of probabilistic conditional inference is proposed. According to the model, inferences are based on 2 sources of evidence: logical form and prior knowledge. Logical form is a decontextualized source of evidence, whereas prior knowledge is activated by the contents of the conditional rule. In Experiments 1 to 3, manipulations of perceived sufficiency and necessity mapped on the parameters quantifying prior knowledge. Emphasizing rule validity increased the weight given to form-based evidence relative to knowledge-based evidence (Experiment 1). Manipulating rule form (only-if vs. if-then) had a focused effect on the parameters quantifying form-based evidence (Experiment 3). The model also provides a parsimonious description of data from the so-called negations paradigm and adequately accounts for polarity bias in that paradigm (Experiment 4). Relationships to alternative conceptualizations of conditional inference are discussed.
authors.affiliation: Institut fur Psychologie, Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg, D-79085 Freiburg, Germany. klauer@psychologie.uni-freiburg.de
authors.forename: Karl Christoph
authors.initials: KC
authors.lastname: Klauer
authors.forename: Sieghard
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Beller
authors.forename: Mandy
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Hütter
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008128:Logic; D008297:Male; D008960:Models, Psychological; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011336:Probability; D011340:Problem Solving; D055815:Young Adult