Prediction of myocardial infarction using coronary risk scores among Japanese male workers: 3M Study.
BACKGROUND
It remains unclear how much coronary risk factors contribute to the prediction of myocardial infarction among Japanese populations.


RESULTS
A nested case-control study of Japanese male workers aged 35 to 65 years was conducted between 1997 and 2000 in the Morbidity of Myocardial Infarction Multicenter Study in Japan (3M Study). Two hundred four myocardial infarctions were identified and two controls per case were selected by matching for age. We calculated odds ratios using a conditional logistic regression model, and constructed risk predictive models for the risk of myocardial infarction using coronary risk factors. The multivariable odds ratios (95 percent confidence intervals) of myocardial infarction were 2.02 (1.29-3.16) for high blood pressure, 2.33 (1.51-3.59) for high LDL-cholesterol, 4.16 (2.36-7.33) for low HDL-cholesterol, 1.49 (0.94-2.35) for high triglycerides, 1.46 (0.89-2.39) for high glucose, and 2.95 (1.90-4.59) for current smoking. A large reduction of the predictive value for myocardial infarction was shown after exclusion of high LDL-cholesterol (reduction of predictive value was -3.4%), further exclusion of low HDL-cholesterol (-7.1%), and further exclusion of current smoking (-16.4%).


CONCLUSIONS
High LDL-cholesterol and low HDL-cholesterol as well as current smoking had high predictive values for myocardial infarction among Japanese middle-aged male workers.
Noda
Hiroyuki
H
Public Health, Department of Social and Environmental Medicine, Graduate School of Medicine, Osaka University.
Maruyama
Koutatsu
K
Iso
Hiroyasu
H
Dohi
Seitaro
S
Terai
Tomohiro
T
Fujioka
Shigenori
S
Goto
Koichi
K
Horie
Seichi
S
Nakano
Shuji
S
Hirobe
Kazuhiko
K
D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D016022:Case-Control Studies; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007564:Japan / Q000453:epidemiology; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009203:Myocardial Infarction / Q000453:epidemiology*; D012307:Risk Factors