title: Prognostic value of the morning blood pressure surge in 5645 subjects from 8 populations.
abstract: Previous studies on the prognostic significance of the morning blood pressure surge (MS) produced inconsistent results. Using the International Database on Ambulatory Blood Pressure in Relation to Cardiovascular Outcome, we analyzed 5645 subjects (mean age: 53.0 years; 54.0% women) randomly recruited in 8 countries. The sleep-through and the preawakening MS were the differences in the morning blood pressure with the lowest nighttime blood pressure and the preawakening blood pressure, respectively. We computed multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios comparing the risk in ethnic- and sex-specific deciles of the MS relative to the average risk in the whole study population. During follow-up (median: 11.4 years), 785 deaths and 611 fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular events occurred. While accounting for covariables and the night:day ratio of systolic pressure, the hazard ratio of all-cause mortality was 1.32 (95% CI: 1.09 to 1.59; P=0.004) in the top decile of the systolic sleep-through MS (>or=37.0 mm Hg). For cardiovascular and noncardiovascular death, these hazard ratios were 1.18 (95% CI: 0.87 to 1.61; P=0.30) and 1.42 (95% CI: 1.11 to 1.80; P=0.005). For all cardiovascular, cardiac, coronary, and cerebrovascular events, the hazard ratios in the top decile of the systolic sleep-through MS were 1.30 (95% CI: 1.06 to 1.60; P=0.01), 1.52 (95% CI: 1.15 to 2.00; P=0.004), 1.45 (95% CI: 1.04 to 2.03; P=0.03), and 0.95 (95% CI: 0.68 to 1.32; P=0.74), respectively. Analysis of the preawakening systolic MS and the diastolic MS generated consistent results. In conclusion, a MS above the 90th percentile significantly and independently predicted cardiovascular outcome and might contribute to risk stratification by ambulatory blood pressure monitoring.
authors.affiliation: Division of Hypertension and Cardiovascular Rehabilitation, Department of Cardiovascular Diseases, Studies Coordinating Centre, University of Leuven, Leuven, Belgium.
authors.forename: Yan
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Li
authors.forename: Lutgarde
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Thijs
authors.forename: Tine W
authors.initials: TW
authors.lastname: Hansen
authors.forename: Masahiro
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Kikuya
authors.forename: José
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Boggia
authors.forename: Tom
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Richart
authors.forename: Hirohito
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Metoki
authors.forename: Takayoshi
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Ohkubo
authors.forename: Christian
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Torp-Pedersen
authors.forename: Tatiana
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Kuznetsova
authors.forename: Katarzyna
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Stolarz-Skrzypek
authors.forename: Valérie
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Tikhonoff
authors.forename: Sofia
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Malyutina
authors.forename: Edoardo
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Casiglia
authors.forename: Yuri
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Nikitin
authors.forename: Edgardo
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Sandoya
authors.forename: Kalina
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Kawecka-Jaszcz
authors.forename: Hans
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Ibsen
authors.forename: Yutaka
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Imai
authors.forename: Jiguang
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.forename: Jan A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Staessen
mesh_terms: D001794:Blood Pressure / Q000502:physiology*; D018660:Blood Pressure Monitoring, Ambulatory; D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000503:physiopathology; D002940:Circadian Rhythm / Q000502:physiology*; D016208:Databases, Factual; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011379:Prognosis; D012307:Risk Factors; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires