Impact of the infection period distribution on the epidemic spread in a metapopulation model.
Epidemic models usually rely on the assumption of exponentially distributed sojourn times in infectious states. This is sometimes an acceptable approximation, but it is generally not realistic and it may influence the epidemic dynamics as it has already been shown in one population. Here, we explore the consequences of choosing constant or gamma-distributed infectious periods in a metapopulation context. For two coupled populations, we show that the probability of generating no secondary infections is the largest for most parameter values if the infectious period follows an exponential distribution, and we identify special cases where, inversely, the infection is more prone to extinction in early phases for constant infection durations. The impact of the infection duration distribution on the epidemic dynamics of many connected populations is studied by simulation and sensitivity analysis, taking into account the potential interactions with other factors. The analysis based on the average nonextinct epidemic trajectories shows that their sensitivity to the assumption on the infectious period distribution mostly depends on R0, the mean infection duration and the network structure. This study shows that the effect of assuming exponential distribution for infection periods instead of more realistic distributions varies with respect to the output of interest and to other factors. Ultimately it highlights the risk of misleading recommendations based on modelling results when models including exponential infection durations are used for practical purposes.
Vergu
Elisabeta
E
UR341 Mathématiques et Informatique Appliquées, INRA, Jouy-en-Josas, France. elisabeta.vergu@jouy.inra.fr
Busson
Henri
H
Ezanno
Pauline
P
D000465:Algorithms; D003141:Communicable Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission*; D003198:Computer Simulation; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000517:prevention & control*; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011156:Population Density; D011157:Population Dynamics; D013997:Time Factors