title: P-POSSUM scoring system for mortality prediction in general neurosurgery.
abstract: The Physiological and Operative Severity Score for enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) scoring systems have been designed for comparative audit and have been well validated in general and vascular surgery. The Portsmouth predictor equation (P-POSSUM) was highly predictive of mortality in a study of elective craniotomies for neurosurgery but has yet to be validated in spinal, peripheral nerve or acute cranial neurosurgery. The West Australian Categorisation of Operative Severity (WA classification) was created for all neurosurgical procedures. Case notes and laboratory results of 531 consecutive patients undergoing neurosurgery were reviewed retrospectively. All POSSUM variables were collected and the POSSUM and P-POSSUM mortality equations were applied. The observed mortality rate was 4.52% and the WA P-POSSUM predicted mortality rate was 4.58% (p>0.951). The WA P-POSSUM rate was more predictive than either the WA POSSUM rate (10.9%, p<0.0001) or the previously proposed elective craniotomy P-POSSUM classification (5.8%, p<0.198). We concluded that the P-POSSUM model with WA classification has the potential to be used in mortality audits for general neurosurgery. By quantifying preoperative risk, P-POSSUM might provide a useful denominator to observed death rates for meaningful comparison of individual neurosurgeons and between departments.
authors.affiliation: West Australian Neurosurgical Service, Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital, 1st Floor, G Block, Hospital Avenue, Nedlands, Western Australia 6009, Australia. wchen@iinet.net.au <wchen@iinet.net.au>
authors.forename: W
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.forename: J W H
authors.initials: JW
authors.lastname: Fong
authors.forename: C R P
authors.initials: CR
authors.lastname: Lind
authors.forename: N W
authors.initials: NW
authors.lastname: Knuckey
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001315:Australia; D003399:Craniotomy / Q000401:mortality*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008485:Medical Audit; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D012372:ROC Curve; D012306:Risk; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012720:Severity of Illness Index