Complex behavioral patterns and trajectories of domestic violence offenders.
Evidence-based practice within the criminal justice system has relied primarily on cumulative reports of reassaults or rearrests, especially in evaluating effectiveness of domestic violence (DV) interventions. We use a longitudinal sample of DV offenders arrested and referred to DV offender programs in four cities to examine complex multi-outcome patterns of violent and abusive behavior and trajectories between patterns over time. Offenders and their partners were surveyed at program intake and followed for 15 months (N = 550). A Hidden Markov Model identifies four distinct behavioral patterns. Trajectory analysis indicates that the most abusive state is relatively stable and indicative of a high probability of future physical assault. Results suggest that evaluation based on complex outcomes may improve criminal justice intervention effectiveness, risk assessment, and risk management.
Jones
Alison Snow
AS
Drexel University School of Public Health, Department of Health Management & Policy, Philadelphia, PA 19102, USA. Alison.S.Jones@drexel.edu
Heckert
D Alex
DA
Gondolf
Edward D
ED
Zhang
Qiang
Q
Ip
Edward H
EH
D000328:Adult; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D003380:Courtship / Q000523:psychology; D003416:Criminal Law / Q000458:organization & administration; D057237:Criminals / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence / Q000523:psychology*; D003617:Dangerous Behavior; D006801:Humans; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D008390:Markov Chains; D008875:Middle Aged; D008960:Models, Psychological; D018570:Risk Assessment; D055502:Secondary Prevention; D012747:Sexual Partners / Q000523:psychology*; D013179:Spouse Abuse / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence / Q000523:psychology* / Q000534:rehabilitation*; D018454:Spouses / Q000523:psychology*; D013997:Time Factors