Validation of the LASA fall risk profile for recurrent falling in older recent fallers.
OBJECTIVE
The fall risk profile developed in the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam (LASA) identifies community-dwelling elderly at high risk for recurrent falling. This study assessed the predictive validity of this profile in older persons seeking care after a fall.


METHODS
The LASA fall risk profile was completed for 408 persons of 65 years and older who consulted the emergency department or general practitioner after a fall. Falls were prospectively reported with a calendar during 1 year. Recurrent falling was defined as ≥ 2 falls within a period of 6 months.


RESULTS
During 1 year of followup, 76 (18.6%) participants became recurrent fallers. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.65 (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 0.58-0.72). At a cutoff value of 8, the sensitivity was 56.6% (CI: 51.8-61.4), the specificity was 71.4% (CI: 67.0-75.8), the positive predictive value was 34.1% (CI: 29.5-38.7), and the negative predictive value was 85.6% (CI: 82.2-89.0).


CONCLUSIONS
The discriminative ability of the LASA fall risk profile was moderate. The predictive validity of the LASA fall risk profile to identify recurrent fallers is limited among older persons who consulted the emergency department or general practitioner after a fall.
Peeters
G M E E Geeske
GM
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, EMGO Institute for Health and Care Research, VU University Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. g.peeters@vumc.nl
Pluijm
Saskia M F
SM
van Schoor
Natasja M
NM
Elders
Petra J M
PJ
Bouter
Lex M
LM
Lips
Paul
P
D000058:Accidental Falls / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D015577:Geriatric Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D006801:Humans; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D009426:Netherlands / Q000453:epidemiology; D012372:ROC Curve; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D055502:Secondary Prevention