title: Predicting tooth loss for older adults with special needs.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Older Adults with Special Needs (OASN) have more oral health needs compared with healthy, independent elders. Currently, little is known about tooth loss, a key indicator of oral function loss, among OASN. Risk assessment is primarily based on clinical experience rather than scientific evidence, raising concerns for quality of care. The study's objective was to develop an evidence-based model to quantitatively predict tooth loss for OASN.
  
  
  METHODS
  Four hundred ninety-one dentate older adults, including 235 from long-term care facilities, were retrospectively recruited. Subjects were treated and brought to a state of oral health before enrollment. Medical and dental assessments were abstracted from dental records and used to predict risk of tooth loss. Tooth loss events were recorded for subjects during follow-up. Multivariate negative-binomial regression was used, starting with 27 risk factors and removing variables using Akaike's Information Criterion. Pearson's correlation was then conducted to evaluate the overall fit of the final fitted model.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The final fitted model included eight predictors. Among them, age, number of decayed/broken teeth at arrival, anticholinergic burden of medications and physical mobility were associated with risk of tooth loss in OASN (P ≤ 0.05). Internal validation indicated satisfactory fit of the final fitted model.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  An evidence-based model with eight predictors was developed to quantitatively predict risk of tooth loss for OASN at the individual level.
authors.affiliation: Department of Dental Ecology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, USA Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA Department of Primary Dental Care, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota Health Informatics, Department of Lab Medicine and Pathology, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA.
authors.forename: Xi
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.forename: James S
authors.initials: JS
authors.lastname: Hodges
authors.forename: Stephen K
authors.initials: SK
authors.lastname: Shuman
authors.forename: Laël C
authors.initials: LC
authors.lastname: Gatewood
authors.forename: Jia
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Xu
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D005260:Female; D006304:Health Status; D006801:Humans; D008134:Long-Term Care; D008297:Male; D008910:Minnesota / Q000453:epidemiology; D009909:Oral Health; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D016388:Tooth Loss / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology*