title: From individual to population level effects of toxicants in the tubicifid Branchiura sowerbyi using threshold effect models in a Bayesian framework.
abstract: Effects of zinc were studied in the freshwater worm Branchiura sowerbyi using partial and full life-cycle tests. Only newborn and juveniles were sensitive to zinc, displaying effects on survival, growth, and age at first brood at environmentally relevant concentrations. Threshold effect models were proposed to assess toxic effects on individuals. They were fitted to life-cycle test data using Bayesian inference and adequately described life-history trait data in exposed organisms. The daily asymptotic growth rate of theoretical populations was then simulated with a matrix population model, based upon individual-level outputs. Population-level outputs were in accordance with existing literature for controls. Working in a Bayesian framework allowed incorporating parameter uncertainty in the simulation of the population-level response to zinc exposure, thus increasing the relevance of test results in the context of ecological risk assessment.
authors.affiliation: INRA (Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique), UMR985 Ecologie et Sante des Ecosystemes, Equipe Ecotoxicologie et Qualite des Milieux Aquatiques, Agrocampus Ouest, 65 rue de Saint Brieuc, F-35042, Rennes, France. virginie.ducrot@rennes.inra.fr
authors.forename: Virginie
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Ducrot
authors.forename: Elise
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Billoir
authors.forename: Alexandre R R
authors.initials: AR
authors.lastname: Péry
authors.forename: Jeanne
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Garric
authors.forename: Sandrine
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Charles
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D000845:Annelida / Q000187:drug effects*; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D002138:Calibration; D003627:Data Interpretation, Statistical; D004784:Environmental Monitoring / Q000379:methods; D004785:Environmental Pollutants / Q000494:pharmacology / Q000633:toxicity; D015386:Hazardous Substances / Q000633:toxicity*; D015233:Models, Statistical; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D018570:Risk Assessment; D013997:Time Factors; D015032:Zinc / Q000633:toxicity
chemical_list: D004785:Environmental Pollutants; D015386:Hazardous Substances; D015032:Zinc