title: How well do hospital mortality rates reported in the New York State CABG report card predict subsequent hospital performance?
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The use of mortality report cards as the basis for hospital choice assumes that a hospital's current performance is predicted by its past performance.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To assess the accuracy of hospital risk-adjusted mortality rates reported in the New York State (NYS) coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) report card for predicting subsequent hospital mortality.
  
  
  METHODS
  We performed a retrospective study based on hospital mortality measures for CABG surgery (n = 37 hospitals) in NYS, which are publicly reported by the NYS Department of Health. Feasible generalized least squares was used to examine the association between a hospital's past quality ranking (high-quality, intermediate-quality, low-quality) and its subsequent performance, as measured using the ratio of the observed-to-expected mortality rate (O-to-E ratio).
  
  
  RESULTS
  Hospitals identified as low-mortality hospitals using 2-year-old data had subsequent O-to-E ratios that were 16.8% lower (95% confidence interval, 8.9-24.8; P < 0.001) than average-mortality hospitals, whereas hospitals identified as high-mortality hospitals had subsequent O-to-E ratios that were 31.8% higher (95% confidence interval, 3.69-59.9; P < 0.05) compared with average-mortality hospitals. Hospitals identified as high-mortality hospitals using 3-year-old data were indistinguishable from average-mortality hospitals.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Hospital ranking based on 2-year-old data is a strong predictor of future performance. Report cards based on 3-year-old data may not be useful for identifying low-performance hospitals. We recommend that the CABG report cards in NYS should be based on 2-year-old data, as opposed to the current practice of basing them on either 2- or 3-year-old data.
authors.affiliation: Department of Anesthesiology, University of Rochester School of Medicine, Rochester, NY 14642, USA. Laurent_Glance@urmc.rochester.edu
authors.forename: Laurent G
authors.initials: LG
authors.lastname: Glance
authors.forename: Andrew W
authors.initials: AW
authors.lastname: Dick
authors.forename: Dana B
authors.initials: DB
authors.lastname: Mukamel
authors.forename: Yue
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Li
authors.forename: Turner M
authors.initials: TM
authors.lastname: Osler
mesh_terms: D001026:Coronary Artery Bypass / Q000401:mortality*; D017052:Hospital Mortality; D006801:Humans; D017063:Outcome Assessment, Health Care / Q000379:methods*; D019984:Quality Indicators, Health Care; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D020379:Risk Adjustment; D013997:Time Factors