Investigating the effect of social changes on age-specific gun-related homicide rates in New York City during the 1990s.
OBJECTIVE
We assessed whether New York City's gun-related homicide rates in the 1990s were associated with a range of social determinants of homicide rates.


METHODS
We used cross-sectional time-series data for 74 New York City police precincts from 1990 through 1999, and we estimated Bayesian hierarchical models with a spatial error term. Homicide rates were estimated separately for victims aged 15-24 years (youths), 25-34 years (young adults), and 35 years or older (adults).


RESULTS
Decreased cocaine consumption was associated with declining homicide rates in youths (posterior median [PM] = 0.25; 95% Bayesian confidence interval [BCI] = 0.07, 0.45) and adults (PM = 0.07; 95% BCI = 0.02, 0.12), and declining alcohol consumption was associated with fewer homicides in young adults (PM = 0.14; 95% BCI = 0.02, 0.25). Receipt of public assistance was associated with fewer homicides for young adults (PM = -104.20; 95% BCI = -182.0, -26.14) and adults (PM = -28.76; 95% BCI = -52.65, -5.01). Misdemeanor policing was associated with fewer homicides in adults (PM = -0.01; 95% BCI = -0.02, -0.001).


CONCLUSIONS
Substance use prevention policies and expansion of the social safety net may be able to cause major reductions in homicide among age groups that drive city homicide trends.
Cerdá
Magdalena
M
New York Academy of Medicine, 1216 Fifth Ave, New York, NY 10029, USA. mcerda@nyam.org
Messner
Steven F
SF
Tracy
Melissa
M
Vlahov
David
D
Goldmann
Emily
E
Tardiff
Kenneth J
KJ
Galea
Sandro
S
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000428:Alcohol Drinking / Q000453:epidemiology; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D019970:Cocaine-Related Disorders / Q000453:epidemiology; D003415:Crime / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D005260:Female; D006708:Homicide / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008390:Markov Chains; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D009519:New York City / Q000453:epidemiology; D011632:Public Assistance / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D012922:Social Change; D014948:Wounds, Gunshot / Q000401:mortality*; D055815:Young Adult
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