[Value of estimated glomerular filtration rate and serum creatinine for predicting long-term survival in Chinese patients after isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery].
OBJECTIVE
To compare the predictive value of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) estimated by the Cockcroft-Gault formula or the modification of diet in renal disease (MDRD) equation and serum creatinine for in-hospital and long-term mortality post coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG).


METHODS
Clinical data of 5559 consecutive patients undergoing isolated CABG were retrospectively analyzed. The main outcomes were in-hospital mortality and long-term mortality. Estimated GFR was calculated by the Cockcroft-Gault formula and MDRD equation respectively. Receiver-operating characteristic curves and Cox's analysis were used for the comparison.


RESULTS
Follow-up was complete in 5485 patients (97.6%). Analysis of receiver-operating characteristic curves showed that GFR estimated by the Cockcroft-Gault formula had a maximal accuracy for predicting in-hospital mortality (area under the curve: 0.755, P < 0.01). Multivariate logistic analysis and the Cox's analysis results indicated estimated GFR < 60 mlxmin(-1)x1.73 m(-2) base on the Cockcroft-Gault formula was an independent risk factor for in-hospital and long-term mortality (hazard ratio 4.51 for in-hospital mortality, P < 0.01; hazard ratio 1.54 for long-term mortality, P < 0.01), both Cockcroft-Gault formula and MDRD equation were superior to serum creatinine for predicting in-hospital and long-term mortality post CABG.


CONCLUSIONS
GFR estimated by the Cockcroft-Gault formula was superior to GFR estimated by the MDRD equation for predicting in-hospital mortality, and estimated GFR was superior to serum creatinine for predicting in-hospital and long-term mortality.
Lin
Ye
Y
Department of Cardiac Surgery, Cardiovascular Institute and Fu Wai Hospital, Peking Union Medical College and Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing 100037, China.
Zheng
Zhe
Z
Hu
Sheng-Shou
SS
Xu
Jian-Ping
JP
Lü
Feng
F
Wang
Wei
W
Song
Yun-Hu
YH
Sun
Han-Song
HS
Yuan
Xin
X
Pan
Xiang-Bin
XB
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D044466:Asian People; D002423:Cause of Death; D001026:Coronary Artery Bypass; D003404:Creatinine / Q000097:blood*; D005260:Female; D005919:Glomerular Filtration Rate; D017052:Hospital Mortality; D006801:Humans; D007677:Kidney Function Tests / Q000379:methods*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011184:Postoperative Period; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012372:ROC Curve; D051437:Renal Insufficiency / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000209:etiology / Q000401:mortality*; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D055815:Young Adult
D003404:Creatinine