title: Optimal control for pandemic influenza: the role of limited antiviral treatment and isolation.
abstract: The implementation of optimal control strategies involving antiviral treatment and/or isolation measures can reduce significantly the number of clinical cases of influenza. Pandemic-level control measures must be carefully assessed specially in resource-limited situations. A model for the transmission dynamics of influenza is used to evaluate the impact of isolation and/or antiviral drug delivery measures during an influenza pandemic. Five pre-selected control strategies involving antiviral treatment and isolation are tested under the "unlimited" resource assumption followed by an exploration of the impact of these "optimal" policies when resources are limited in the context of a 1918-type influenza pandemic scenario. The implementation of antiviral treatment at the start of a pandemic tends to reduce the magnitude of epidemic peaks, spreading the maximal impact of an outbreak over an extended window in time. Hence, the controls' timing and intensity can reduce the pressures placed on the health care infrastructure by a pandemic reducing the stress put on the system during epidemic peaks. The role of isolation strategies is highlighted in this study particularly when access to antiviral resources is limited.
authors.affiliation: Mathematical and Computational Modeling Sciences Center, School of Human Evolution and Social Change, Arizona State University, PO Box 871904, Tempe, AZ 85287, USA. mathever@gmail.com
authors.forename: Sunmi
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.forename: Gerardo
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Chowell
authors.forename: Carlos
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Castillo-Chávez
mesh_terms: D000998:Antiviral Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000517:prevention & control*; D006801:Humans; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000188:drug therapy* / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control*; D018448:Models, Immunological; D010356:Patient Isolation; D013997:Time Factors
chemical_list: D000998:Antiviral Agents