title: Modelling BSE trend over time in Europe, a risk assessment perspective.
abstract: BSE is a zoonotic disease that caused the emergence of variant Creuzfeldt-Jakob disease in the mid 1990s. The trend of the BSE epidemic in seven European countries was assessed and compared, using Age-Period-Cohort and Reproduction Ratio modelling applied to surveillance data 2001-2007. A strong decline in BSE risk was observed for all countries that applied control measures during the 1990s, starting at different points in time in the different countries. Results were compared with the type and date of the BSE control measures implemented between 1990 and 2001 in each country. Results show that a ban on the feeding of meat and bone meal (MBM) to cattle alone was not sufficient to eliminate BSE. The fading out of the epidemic started shortly after the complementary measures targeted at controlling the risk in MBM. Given the long incubation period, it is still too early to estimate the additional effect of the ban on the feeding of animal protein to all farm animals that started in 2001. These results provide new insights in the risk assessment of BSE for cattle and Humans, which will especially be useful in the context of possible relaxing BSE surveillance and control measures.
authors.affiliation: INRA, UR346 Epidémiologie Animale, 63540, Saint Genes Champanelle, France. ducrot@clermont.inra.fr
authors.forename: Christian
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Ducrot
authors.forename: Carole
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Sala
authors.forename: Giuseppe
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Ru
authors.forename: Aline
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: de Koeijer
authors.forename: Hazel
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Sheridan
authors.forename: Claude
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Saegerman
authors.forename: Thomas
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Selhorst
authors.forename: Mark
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Arnold
authors.forename: Miroslaw P
authors.initials: MP
authors.lastname: Polak
authors.forename: Didier
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Calavas
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D002417:Cattle; D015331:Cohort Studies; D007562:Creutzfeldt-Jakob Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D016643:Encephalopathy, Bovine Spongiform / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control; D005060:Europe / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008954:Models, Biological; D011159:Population Surveillance; D018570:Risk Assessment; D015047:Zoonoses / Q000453:epidemiology
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