Mountains, valleys, and rivers: The transmission of raccoon rabies over a heterogeneous landscape.
Landscape features may serve as either barriers or gateways to the spread of certain infectious diseases, and understanding the way geographic structure impacts disease spread could lead to improved containment strategies. Here, we focus on modeling the space-time diffusion process of a raccoon rabies outbreak across several states in the Eastern United States. Specifically, we measure the impact that landscape features, such as mountains and rivers, have on the speed of infectious disease diffusion. This work combines statistical modeling with spatial operations in a geographic information system (GIS) to study disease diffusion. We use a GIS to create landscape feature variables and explore three analytic approaches. First, we use spatial prediction (kriging) to provide a descriptive pattern of the spread of the virus. Second, we use Bayesian areal wombling to detect barriers for infectious disease transmission and examine spatial coincidence with potential features. Finally, we input landscape variables into a hierarchical Bayesian model with spatially varying coefficients to obtain model-based estimates of their local impacts on transmission time in counties.
Wheeler
David C
DC
Department of Biostatistics, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, 1518 Clifton Road NE, Atlanta, GA 30322.
Waller
Lance A
LA
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2007 May 8;104(19):7993-8
17470818
Int J Health Geogr. 2007 Apr 11;6:14
17428324
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2002 Mar 19;99(6):3668-72
11904426
J Public Health Manag Pract. 1998 Sep;4(5):56-62
10187067
Trends Ecol Evol. 2005 Jun;20(6):328-36
16701389
MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2003 Nov 14;52(45):1102-3
14614408
Proc Biol Sci. 2004 Jan 7;271(1534):21-5
15002767
Science. 1951 Sep 28;114(2961):315-22
14883851
Emerg Infect Dis. 2003 Sep;9(9):1143-50
14519253