[Forecast of the indicators on maternal and child health of China in 2020 using auto-regressive model].
OBJECTIVE
To forecast the indicators on maternal and child health of China in 2020.


METHODS
Based on Surveillance data of the indicators on the maternal and child health in China since the 1990s, forecasting models were found using auto-regressive method, and the indicators on maternal and child health in China in 2020 were forecasted using the models after they had been tested and valued.


RESULTS
Auto-regressive models on infant mortality rate (IMR), under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) and maternal mortality (MMR) were found. The models and their parameters passed statistical tests, and their mean absolute error was 5% or so and determination coefficients were all more than 90%.


CONCLUSIONS
The IMR of China in 2020 was forecasted to be 0.635%, the U5MR 0.737% and the MMR 22.21/100 000.
Ren
Zheng-hong
ZH
Department of Child, Adolescent and Women's Health, Peking University School of Public Health, Beijing 100191, China.
An
Lin
L
Zhang
Ling-li
LL
D002648:Child; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting / Q000379:methods*; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007226:Infant Mortality / Q000639:trends*; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008428:Maternal Mortality / Q000639:trends*; D008430:Maternal-Child Health Centers / Q000458:organization & administration*; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011247:Pregnancy; D012044:Regression Analysis