An estimate of the global burden of anthropogenic ozone and fine particulate matter on premature human mortality using atmospheric modeling.
BACKGROUND
Ground-level concentrations of ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter [< or = 2.5 microm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5)] have increased since preindustrial times in urban and rural regions and are associated with cardiovascular and respiratory mortality.


OBJECTIVE
We estimated the global burden of mortality due to O3 and PM2.5 from anthropogenic emissions using global atmospheric chemical transport model simulations of preindustrial and present-day (2000) concentrations to derive exposure estimates.


METHODS
Attributable mortalities were estimated using health impact functions based on long-term relative risk estimates for O3 and PM2.5 from the epidemiology literature. Using simulated concentrations rather than previous methods based on measurements allows the inclusion of rural areas where measurements are often unavailable and avoids making assumptions for background air pollution.


RESULTS
Anthropogenic O3 was associated with an estimated 0.7 +/- 0.3 million respiratory mortalities (6.3 +/- 3.0 million years of life lost) annually. Anthropogenic PM2.5 was associated with 3.5 +/- 0.9 million cardiopulmonary and 220,000 +/- 80,000 lung cancer mortalities (30 +/- 7.6 million years of life lost) annually. Mortality estimates were reduced approximately 30% when we assumed low-concentration thresholds of 33.3 ppb for O3 and 5.8 microg/m3 for PM2.5. These estimates were sensitive to concentration thresholds and concentration-mortality relationships, often by > 50%.


CONCLUSIONS
Anthropogenic O3 and PM2.5 contribute substantially to global premature mortality. PM2.5 mortality estimates are about 50% higher than previous measurement-based estimates based on common assumptions, mainly because of methodologic differences. Specifically, we included rural populations, suggesting higher estimates; however, the coarse resolution of the global atmospheric model may underestimate urban PM(2.5) exposures.
Anenberg
Susan C
SC
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA.
Horowitz
Larry W
LW
Tong
Daniel Q
DQ
West
J Jason
JJ
D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000209:etiology / Q000401:mortality; D004784:Environmental Monitoring / Q000379:methods*; D006801:Humans; D008171:Lung Diseases / Q000209:etiology / Q000401:mortality; D008175:Lung Neoplasms / Q000209:etiology / Q000401:mortality; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D010126:Ozone / Q000009:adverse effects*; D052638:Particulate Matter / Q000009:adverse effects*; D012140:Respiratory Tract Diseases / Q000209:etiology / Q000401:mortality
D052638:Particulate Matter; D010126:Ozone
Am J Respir Crit Care Med. 2006 Mar 15;173(6):667-72
16424447
Epidemiology. 2000 Nov;11(6):666-72
11055627
JAMA. 2002 Mar 6;287(9):1132-41
11879110
Lancet. 2002 Oct 19;360(9341):1203-9
12401246
N Engl J Med. 2009 Mar 12;360(11):1085-95
19279340
Environ Health Perspect. 2000 Sep;108(9):841-5
11017888
Environ Health Perspect. 2010 Mar;118(3):363-9
20064787
Environ Sci Technol. 2009 Sep 1;43(17):6482-7
19764205
Environ Sci Technol. 2008 Apr 1;42(7):2268-74
18504952
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2006 Mar 14;103(11):3988-93
16537473
Environ Sci Technol. 2007 Dec 15;41(24):8512-8
18200887
Res Rep Health Eff Inst. 2009 May;(140):5-114; discussion 115-36
19627030
Epidemiology. 2008 Sep;19(5):680-9
18714438
JAMA. 2004 Nov 17;292(19):2372-8
15547165
Science. 2003 Dec 5;302(5651):1716-9
14657488