title: Prediction of outcome of extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy in the management of ureteric calculi.
abstract: The present study was designed to evaluate the clinical outcome of using extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy (ESWL) in the treatment of ureteric calculi and to establish a predictive model for the stone-free rate in patients receiving the treatment. A total of 831 patients with ureteric calculi were accepted in this study. Several parameters, including stone site, stone number, stone size, history of urolithiasis, renal colic, hydronephrosis, and double-J ureteric stent, were analyzed using univariate and multivariate analyses. A prediction model was established based on the logistic regression analysis of the significant factors, and the goodness-of-fit of the model was evaluated by employing the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. At a 3-month follow-up after ESWL treatment, the overall stone-free rate was 96.8% (804/831) with no serious complications being found, while the treatment failed in 3.2% (27/831) of the patients. Five factors, including stone number, stone size, history of urolithiasis, renal colic, and double-J ureteric stent contributed significantly to the clinical outcome of the ESWL treatment. The prediction model had a sensitivity and overall accuracy of 99.8 and 96.9%, respectively. The results show that ESWL remains an effective method for treating ureteric calculi. The prediction model established in this study could be used as a method for estimating prognosis in patients following ESWL treatment.
authors.affiliation: Centre of Urology, Nankai Hospital, Tianjin, 300100, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Mingqing
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.forename: Qiduo
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Shi
authors.forename: Xuguang
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.forename: Kun
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.forename: Rui
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Yang
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D006869:Hydronephrosis / Q000628:therapy; D008096:Lithotripsy / Q000379:methods*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D011379:Prognosis; D056844:Renal Colic / Q000628:therapy; D015607:Stents; D013673:Technology Assessment, Biomedical; D016896:Treatment Outcome; D014463:Ultrasonography; D014513:Ureter / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging / Q000601:surgery; D053039:Ureterolithiasis / Q000628:therapy*; D052878:Urolithiasis / Q000628:therapy
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