title: Investigating the effect of social changes on age-specific gun-related homicide rates in New York City during the 1990s.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  We assessed whether New York City's gun-related homicide rates in the 1990s were associated with a range of social determinants of homicide rates.
  
  
  METHODS
  We used cross-sectional time-series data for 74 New York City police precincts from 1990 through 1999, and we estimated Bayesian hierarchical models with a spatial error term. Homicide rates were estimated separately for victims aged 15-24 years (youths), 25-34 years (young adults), and 35 years or older (adults).
  
  
  RESULTS
  Decreased cocaine consumption was associated with declining homicide rates in youths (posterior median [PM] = 0.25; 95% Bayesian confidence interval [BCI] = 0.07, 0.45) and adults (PM = 0.07; 95% BCI = 0.02, 0.12), and declining alcohol consumption was associated with fewer homicides in young adults (PM = 0.14; 95% BCI = 0.02, 0.25). Receipt of public assistance was associated with fewer homicides for young adults (PM = -104.20; 95% BCI = -182.0, -26.14) and adults (PM = -28.76; 95% BCI = -52.65, -5.01). Misdemeanor policing was associated with fewer homicides in adults (PM = -0.01; 95% BCI = -0.02, -0.001).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Substance use prevention policies and expansion of the social safety net may be able to cause major reductions in homicide among age groups that drive city homicide trends.
authors.affiliation: New York Academy of Medicine, 1216 Fifth Ave, New York, NY 10029, USA. mcerda@nyam.org
authors.forename: Magdalena
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Cerdá
authors.forename: Steven F
authors.initials: SF
authors.lastname: Messner
authors.forename: Melissa
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Tracy
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Vlahov
authors.forename: Emily
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Goldmann
authors.forename: Kenneth J
authors.initials: KJ
authors.lastname: Tardiff
authors.forename: Sandro
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Galea
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000428:Alcohol Drinking / Q000453:epidemiology; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D019970:Cocaine-Related Disorders / Q000453:epidemiology; D003415:Crime / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D005260:Female; D006708:Homicide / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008390:Markov Chains; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D009519:New York City / Q000453:epidemiology; D011632:Public Assistance / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D012922:Social Change; D014948:Wounds, Gunshot / Q000401:mortality*; D055815:Young Adult
references.citation: Urban Aff Rev Thousand Oaks Calif. 2008;43(6):846-874
references.pmid: 19655037
references.citation: Am J Epidemiol. 2006 Jul 15;164(2):151-60
references.pmid: 16775045
references.citation: Stat Methods Med Res. 2006 Aug;15(4):385-407
references.pmid: 16886738
references.citation: Soc Sci Res. 2008 Sep;37(3):721-35
references.pmid: 19086112
references.citation: Stat Med. 1998 Sep 30;17(18):2025-43
references.pmid: 9789912
references.citation: Biometrics. 1987 Sep;43(3):671-81
references.pmid: 3663823
references.citation: J Urban Health. 2002 Mar;79(1):70-86
references.pmid: 11937617
references.citation: J Forensic Sci. 2008 Mar;53(2):447-51
references.pmid: 18366577
references.citation: Drug Alcohol Depend. 1997 Jan 10;44(1):11-29
references.pmid: 9031816
references.citation: J Occup Environ Med. 2004 Oct;46(10):1057-64
references.pmid: 15602180
references.citation: Epidemiology. 2009 Jul;20(4):533-41
references.pmid: 19525689
references.citation: Annu Rev Public Health. 2000;21:505-41
references.pmid: 10884963
references.citation: Subst Use Misuse. 2008;43(2):179-201
references.pmid: 18205087