What prevents phenological adjustment to climate change in migrant bird species? Evidence against the "arrival constraint" hypothesis.
Phenological studies have demonstrated changes in the timing of seasonal events across multiple taxonomic groups as the climate warms. Some northern European migrant bird populations, however, show little or no significant change in breeding phenology, resulting in synchrony with key food sources becoming mismatched. This phenological inertia has often been ascribed to migration constraints (i.e. arrival date at breeding grounds preventing earlier laying). This has been based primarily on research in The Netherlands and Germany where time between arrival and breeding is short (often as few as 9 days). Here, we test the arrival constraint hypothesis over a 15-year period for a U.K. pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca) population where laying date is not constrained by arrival as the period between arrival and breeding is substantial and consistent (average 27 ± 4.57 days SD). Despite increasing spring temperatures and quantifiably stronger selection for early laying on the basis of number of offspring to fledge, we found no significant change in breeding phenology, in contrast with co-occurring resident blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus). We discuss possible non-migratory constraints on phenological adjustment, including limitations on plasticity, genetic constraints and competition, as well as the possibility of counter-selection pressures relating to adult survival, longevity or future reproductive success. We propose that such factors need to be considered in conjunction with the arrival constraint hypothesis.
Goodenough
Anne E
AE
Department of Natural and Social Sciences, University of Gloucestershire, Cheltenham, UK. aegoodenough@glos.ac.uk
Hart
Adam G
AG
Elliot
Simon L
SL
D000222:Adaptation, Physiological; D025041:Animal Migration / Q000502:physiology*; D000818:Animals; D001717:Birds / Q000145:classification / Q000502:physiology*; D001947:Breeding; D057231:Climate Change; D003246:Conservation of Energy Resources; D005858:Germany; D009426:Netherlands; D013045:Species Specificity; D013997:Time Factors
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2003 Oct 14;100(21):12219-22
14519854
Nature. 2006 May 4;441(7089):81-3
16672969
Proc Biol Sci. 2004 Aug 22;271(1549):1657-62
15306284
Science. 2008 May 9;320(5877):800-3
18467590
Nature. 2001 May 17;411(6835):296-8
11357129
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2002 Oct 15;99(21):13379-81
12370424
Nature. 2003 Jan 2;421(6918):37-42
12511946
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2008 Oct 21;105(42):16195-200
18849475
Trends Ecol Evol. 1998 Feb 1;13(2):77-81
21238209
Proc Biol Sci. 2003 Feb 22;270(1513):367-72
12639315
Proc Biol Sci. 2010 Apr 22;277(1685):1259-66
20018784
Trends Ecol Evol. 2005 Sep;20(9):481-6
16701424