title: Validation of the health ABC heart failure model for incident heart failure risk prediction: the Cardiovascular Health Study.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The recently developed and internally validated Health ABC HF model uses 9 routinely available clinical variables to determine incident heart failure risk. In this study, we sought to externally validate the Health ABC HF model.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Observed 5-year incidence of heart failure, defined as first hospitalization for new-onset heart failure, was compared with 5-year risk estimates derived from the Health ABC HF model among participants without heart failure at baseline in the Cardiovascular Health Study. During follow-up, 400 of 5335 (7.5%) participants developed heart failure over 5 years versus 364 (6.8%) predicted by the Health ABC HF model (predicted-to-observed ratio, 0.90). Observed versus predicted 5-year heart failure probabilities were 3.2% versus 2.8%, 9.0% versus 7.0%, 15.9% versus 13.7%, and 24.6% versus 30.8% for the <5%, 5% to 10%, 10% to 20%, and >20% 5-year risk categories, respectively. The Hosmer-Lemeshow chi(2) was 14.72 (degrees of freedom, 10; P=0.14), and the C index was 0.74 (95% CI, 0.72 to 0.76). Calibration and discrimination demonstrated adequate performance across sex and race overall; however, risk was underestimated in white men, especially in the 5% to 10% risk category. Model performance was optimal when participants with normal left ventricular function at baseline were assessed separately. Performance was consistent across age groups. Analyses with death as a competing risk yielded similar results.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The Health ABC HF model adequately predicted 5-year heart failure risk in a large community-based study, providing support for the external validity of the model. This tool may be used to identify individuals to whom to target heart failure prevention efforts.
authors.affiliation: Department of Medicine, Division of Cardiology, Emory University, Atlanta, Ga 30322, USA.
authors.forename: Andreas
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Kalogeropoulos
authors.forename: Bruce M
authors.initials: BM
authors.lastname: Psaty
authors.forename: Ramachandran S
authors.initials: RS
authors.lastname: Vasan
authors.forename: Vasiliki
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Georgiopoulou
authors.forename: Andrew L
authors.initials: AL
authors.lastname: Smith
authors.forename: Nicholas L
authors.initials: NL
authors.lastname: Smith
authors.forename: Stephen B
authors.initials: SB
authors.lastname: Kritchevsky
authors.forename: Peter W F
authors.initials: PW
authors.lastname: Wilson
authors.forename: Anne B
authors.initials: AB
authors.lastname: Newman
authors.forename: Tamara B
authors.initials: TB
authors.lastname: Harris
authors.forename: Javed
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Butler
mesh_terms: D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002423:Cause of Death; D015331:Cohort Studies; D016001:Confidence Intervals; D018450:Disease Progression; D015150:Echocardiography, Doppler; D005260:Female; D006333:Heart Failure / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D017678:Sex Distribution; D016019:Survival Analysis; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology