[Influenza A (H1N1) 2009 and uncertainties: lessons from a pandemic].
During a pandemic, public health specialists base their recommendations on previous data and more or less complex epidemiological models. By contrast, a virus replicates according to its own rules and biological properties that do not consider epidemiological models. Recent experience with influenza virus A (HINI) 2009 well demonstrates that public health models have a limited ability to predict the type and the pattern of a future pandemic. It is rather the virus that dictates the rules.
Iten
Anne
A
Service prevention et contrôle de I'infection, Département de médecine interne, HUG, 1211 Geneve 14. anne.iten@hcuge.ch
Kaiser
Laurent
L
D021821:Communicable Diseases, Emerging / Q000453:epidemiology; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D006801:Humans; D053118:Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype / Q000472:pathogenicity; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000821:virology