title: First evaluation using a validated scale of the risk of congestive heart failure among hypertensive patients treated by general practitioners (O-PREDICT survey).
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Routine management of hypertensive adults is based on assessment of risk factors for coronary artery disease; risk factors for heart failure (HF) remain poorly investigated despite the key role of hypertension in HF development.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To assess the components of HF risk in hypertensive adults in primary care, compare physicians' estimations of HF and global cardiovascular risks with established calculation algorithms, and assess the concordance of these algorithms.
  
  
  METHODS
  O-PREDICT was a transverse, observational, multicentre French survey conducted in 2006 among general practitioners who included the first hypertensive, non-HF patient seen in each of three age classes (<60, 60-70, >70 years). Estimations of HF and global cardiovascular risks (at 4 and 10 years, respectively) were performed subjectively during the consultation and calculated a posteriori according to algorithms from the Framingham cohort and the European SCORE database, respectively. For each of these methods, patients were stratified into four risk categories (i.e., no, low, moderate, high).
  
  
  RESULTS
  One thousand five hundred and thirty seven physicians recruited 4523 patients (61% men; 64.5+/-10.9 years; systolic blood pressure 149.9+/-15.4 mmHg); most (67.2%) patients had one or two cardiovascular/HF risk factors (dyslipidaemia 48.8%, left ventricular hypertrophy 25.3%, diabetes 18.8%, coronary artery disease 8.8%, valvulopathy 6.1%); the number increased with advancing age and in men versus women. According to the Framingham algorithm, the risk of HF (mean 5.4+/-8.5%; 13.4% of patients at high risk) increased with advancing age (p<0.001), nearly doubling for each decade increase. According to the European SCORE system, global cardiovascular risk (mean 5.4+/-4.3%) was moderate or elevated in 48.1% of patients. Concordance between physicians' estimations and theoretical calculations for HF and global risks was poor, as was concordance between algorithms (kappa(w)=0.28, 0.12, 0.11, respectively).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  More than one in 10 hypertensive patients seen in primary care is at high risk of HF at 4 years according to the Framingham model; this algorithm appears to offer additional information to that provided by the SCORE system. Physicians' estimations of risks correlated poorly with algorithm calculations, suggesting that the use of these tools in general practice should be encouraged.
authors.affiliation: hôpital européen Georges-Pompidou, Assistance publique-Hôpitaux de Paris, université Paris Descartes, 75015 Paris, France. albert.hagege@egp.aphp.fr
authors.forename: Albert Alain
authors.initials: AA
authors.lastname: Hagège
authors.forename: Nacima
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Demil
authors.forename: Gilles
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Errieau
authors.forename: Jean-François
authors.initials: JF
authors.lastname: Aupetit
authors.forename: François
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Dievart
authors.forename: Jean-Jacques
authors.initials: JJ
authors.lastname: Mourad
mesh_terms: D000465:Algorithms; D005194:Family Practice; D006305:Health Status Indicators; D006333:Heart Failure / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006973:Hypertension / Q000453:epidemiology*; D011320:Primary Health Care; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000145:classification*