title: Long-term health and economic impact of preventing and reducing overweight and obesity in adolescence.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Using data from the 2000 National Medical Expenditure Panel Survey and estimates from published studies, this study projected the long-term health and economic impacts of preventing and reducing overweight and obesity in today's adolescents.
  
  
  METHODS
  We developed a body mass index progression model to project the impact of a 1% point reduction in both overweight and obese adolescents aged 16-17 years at present on the number of nonoverweight, overweight, and obese adults at age 40 years. We then estimated its impact on the lifetime medical costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) after age 40. Medical costs (in 2007 dollars) and QALYs were discounted to age 17 years.
  
  
  RESULTS
  A 1% point reduction in both overweight and obese adolescents ages 16-17 years at present could reduce the number of obese adults by 52,821 in the future. As a result, lifetime medical care costs after age 40 years would decrease by $586 million and lifetime QALYs would increase by 47,138. In the worst case scenario, the 1% point reduction would lower medical costs by $463 million and increase QALYs by 34,394; in the best case scenario, it would reduce medical costs by $691 million and increase QALYs by 57,149.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Obesity prevention in adolescents goes beyond its immediate benefits; it can also reduce medical costs and increase QALYs substantially in later life. Therefore, it is important to include long-term health and economic benefits when quantifying the impact of obesity prevention in adolescents.
authors.affiliation: Division of Adolescent and School Health, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30341, USA. lgw0@cdc.gov
authors.forename: Li Y
authors.initials: LY
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.forename: Maxine
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Denniston
authors.forename: Sarah
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.forename: Deborah
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Galuska
authors.forename: Richard
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Lowry
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D019538:Health Care Surveys; D005102:Health Expenditures; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D009765:Obesity / Q000191:economics* / Q000517:prevention & control*; D050177:Overweight / Q000191:economics* / Q000517:prevention & control*; D015397:Program Evaluation; D019057:Quality-Adjusted Life Years