title: An econometric analysis of the effects of the penalty points system driver's license in Spain.
abstract: This article seeks to quantify the effects of the penalty points system driver's license during the 18-month period following its coming into force. This is achieved by means of univariate and multivariate unobserved component models set up in a state space framework estimated using maximum likelihood. A detailed intervention analysis is carried out in order to test for the effects and their duration of the introduction of the penalty points system driver's license in Spain. Other variables, mainly indicators of the level of economic activity in Spain, are also considered. Among the main effects, we can mention an average reduction of almost 12.6% in the number of deaths in highway accidents. It would take at least 2 years for that effect to disappear. For the rest of the safety indicator variables (vehicle occupants injured in highway accidents and vehicle occupants injured in accidents built-up areas) the effects disappeared 1 year after the law coming into force.
authors.affiliation: Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, University of Seville, Seville, Spain. jignacio@us.es
authors.forename: José I
authors.initials: JI
authors.lastname: Castillo-Manzano
authors.forename: Mercedes
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Castro-Nuño
authors.forename: Diego J
authors.initials: DJ
authors.lastname: Pedregal
mesh_terms: D000063:Accidents, Traffic / Q000191:economics* / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D001334:Automobile Driving / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D008004:Licensure / Q000191:economics* / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D017059:Models, Econometric; D015397:Program Evaluation; D011678:Punishment; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D013030:Spain; D013997:Time Factors