Is the recent rise in type 2 diabetes incidence from 1984 to 2007 explained by the trend in increasing BMI?: evidence from a prospective study of British men.
OBJECTIVE
To estimate the extent to which increasing BMI may explain the rise in type 2 diabetes incidence in British men from 1984 to 2007.


METHODS
A representative cohort ratio of 6,460 British men was followed-up for type 2 diabetes incidence between 1984 (aged 45-65 years) and 2007 (aged 67-89 years). BMI was ascertained at regular intervals before and during the follow-up.


RESULTS
Between 1984-1992 and 1999-2007, the age-adjusted hazard of type 2 diabetes more than doubled (hazard ratio 2.33 [95% CI 1.75-3.10]). Mean BMI rose by 1.42 kg/m(2) (95% CI 1.10-1.74) between 1984 and 1999; this could explain 26% (95% CI 17-38) of the type 2 diabetes increase.


CONCLUSIONS
An appreciable portion of the rise in type 2 diabetes can be attributed to BMI changes. A substantial portion remains unexplained, possibly associated with other determinants such as physical activity. This merits further research.
Hardoon
Sarah L
SL
Division of Population Health, University College London, London, UK. s.hardoon@ucl.ac.uk
Morris
Richard W
RW
Thomas
Mary C
MC
Wannamethee
S Goya
SG
Lennon
Lucy T
LT
Whincup
Peter H
PH
D000273:Adipose Tissue; D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D015992:Body Mass Index; D015331:Cohort Studies; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000453:epidemiology*; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011446:Prospective Studies; D006113:United Kingdom / Q000453:epidemiology