title: Nonlinear degree-day models for postdiapause development of the sunflower stem weevil (Coleoptera: Curculionidae).
abstract: The sunflower stem weevil, Cylindrocopturus adspersus (LeConte) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), has caused yield losses across much of the western Great Plains. Little is known about the field biology of this pest. Simple prediction models, such as degree-day models, are an integral tool for development of C. adspersus management strategies. Using data collected in Colorado, Kansas, and Nebraska, we sought for predictable variation between C. adspersus pupation, adult eclosion, and emergence and accumulated degree-days Celsius (DD) by using a temperature threshold of 5 degrees C. Accurate phenological models can be used to time scouting efforts and pesticide applications. The relationship between phenological data and accumulated DD fit nonlinear, Gaussian distributions better than uniform distributions. Phenological models were developed to describe these distributions for pupation, adult presence within the stalk and adult emergence. The pupation model predicts 50% pupation at 197 DD and 90% at 307 DD. Model results predict that 50% of adult eclosion within the stalks will have transpired at 396 DD and 90% at 529 DD. A model-averaged result from two data sets predicts 5% adult emergence from stalks at 262 DD, 50% emergence at 540 DD, 75% emergence at 657 DD, and 90% at 777 DD. Scouting for adults thus can be initiated at 262 DD. Current chemical controls target adults to prevent oviposition. Thus, applications therefore should not be made before this point.
authors.affiliation: Department of Bioagricultural Sciences and Pest Management, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523-1177, USA. scott.merrill@colostate.edu
authors.forename: Scott C
authors.initials: SC
authors.lastname: Merrill
authors.forename: Assefa
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Gebre-Amlak
authors.forename: J Scott
authors.initials: JS
authors.lastname: Armstrong
authors.forename: Frank B
authors.initials: FB
authors.lastname: Peairs
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001517:Coleoptera / Q000502:physiology*; D016015:Logistic Models; D012621:Seasons; D013696:Temperature