title: Modeling the economic impact of pandemic influenza: a case study in Turkey.
abstract: Influenza pandemics have occurred intermittently throughout the 20th century and killed millions of people worldwide. It is expected that influenza pandemics will continue to occur in the near future. Huge number of deaths and cases is the most troublesome aspect of the influenza pandemics, but the other important trouble is the economic impact of the influenza pandemics to the countries. In this study, we try to detect the cost of a possible influenza pandemic under different scenarios and attack rates. We include the vaccination and antiviral treatment cost for direct cost and we add the work absenteeism cost to the calculations for indirect cost of influenza pandemics. As a case study, we calculate the economic impact of pandemic influenza for Turkey under three different scenarios and three different attack rates. Our optimistic estimation shows that the economic impact of pandemic influenza will be between 1.364 billion dollars and 2.687 billions dollars to Turkish economy depending on the vaccination strategies.
authors.affiliation: Faculty of Medicine, Department of Public Health, Cukurova University, 01330 Adana, Turkey. elcinyoladscan@hotmail.com
authors.forename: Elcin
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Yoldascan
authors.forename: Behice
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Kurtaran
authors.forename: Melik
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Koyuncu
authors.forename: Esra
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Koyuncu
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D000998:Antiviral Agents / Q000191:economics / Q000627:therapeutic use; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000191:economics*; D017721:Hospital Costs; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D007252:Influenza Vaccines / Q000191:economics / Q000627:therapeutic use; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000191:economics* / Q000453:epidemiology; D008875:Middle Aged; D017059:Models, Econometric; D012307:Risk Factors; D014421:Turkey / Q000453:epidemiology; D055815:Young Adult
chemical_list: D000998:Antiviral Agents; D007252:Influenza Vaccines