title: Assessing the probability of carbon and greenhouse gas benefit from the management of peat soils.
abstract: This study proposes a method for assessing the probability that land management interventions will lead to an improvement in the carbon sink represented by peat soils. The method is able to: combine studies of different carbon uptake and release pathways in order to assess changes on the overall carbon or greenhouse gas budget; calculate the probability of the management or restoration leading to an improvement in the budget; calculate the uncertainty in that probability estimate; estimate the equivalent number of complete budgets available from the combination of the literature; test the difference in the outcome of different land management interventions; and provide a method for updating the predicted probabilities as new studies become available. Using this methodology, this study considered the impact of: afforestation, managed burning, drainage, drain-blocking, grazing removal; and revegetation, on the carbon budget of peat soils in the UK. The study showed that afforestation, drain-blocking, revegetation, grazing removal and cessation of managed burning would bring a carbon benefit, whereas deforestation, managed burning and drainage would bring a disbenefit. The predicted probabilities of a benefit are often equivocal as each management type or restoration often leads to increase in uptake in one pathway while increasing losses in another.
authors.affiliation: Department of Earth Sciences, Science Laboratories, University of Durham, South Road, Durham, UK. fred.worrall@durham.ac.uk
authors.forename: F
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Worrall
authors.forename: M J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Bell
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Bhogal
mesh_terms: D000397:Air Pollution / Q000517:prevention & control*; D002244:Carbon / Q000032:analysis*; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources / Q000379:methods*; D052918:Environmental Restoration and Remediation / Q000379:methods; D017752:Greenhouse Effect; D011336:Probability; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012987:Soil / Q000032:analysis*
chemical_list: D012987:Soil; D002244:Carbon