Use of a Montecarlo simulation model for the re-planning of bluetongue surveillance in Italy.
Since August 2000, Italy has lost almost 500,000 sheep to the largest incursion of bluetongue (BT) yet to affect Europe. The national BT surveillance system includes serological and entomological programmes. The main objective of the serological programme is the early detection of BT virus (BTV) circulation by periodical testing of more than 30,000 sentinel cattle distributed across Italy. The sentinel network has been in force since October 2001 and since its inception has provided accurate and timely detection of viral circulation. However, the repeated testing of such a large number of animals required significant effort from the Veterinary Services and was costly for farmers. Consequently, a Montecarlo simulation model was developed to simulate different sentinel system scenarios and the results from each were compared. The model was validated using data derived from the serological surveillance activities in Sardinia from October 2001 to December 2002.
Calistri
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Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale dell'Abruzzo e del Molise G. Caporale, Via Campo Boario, Teramo, Italy.
Giovannini
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Conte
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Caporale
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