[Development and verification of Chinese dietary exposure evaluation model software].
OBJECTIVE
To develop the dietary exposure evaluation model software accredited of Chinese intellectual property rights and to verify the rationality and accuracy of the results from the probabilistic model in Chinese dietary exposure evaluation model software according to international standards.


METHODS
The software of SAS was used to build various evaluation model based on the data from Chinese dietary survey and the chemical compound in food surveillance and to design an operation interface. The results from probabilistic dietary exposure model for children 2 - 7 years old were compared with that from duplicate portion study of 2-7 years children dietary exposure in Jinhu, Jiangsu province in order to analyze the rationality of model. The results from probabilistic model of dietary exposure were compared with the results from @Risk software to verify the correction of the probabilistic model by using the same data of randomly selected 10 000 study subjects from national dietary survey. While, the mean drift was used as an internal index to illustrate the accuracy of the computation.


RESULTS
Chinese dietary exposure evaluation software was developed successfully. On the rationality, the results from probabilistic model were lower than that from the point estimation (e.g., cucumber: the result of point estimation of acephate was 4.78 microg x kg(-1) x d(-1), while the results of probabilistic model which was 0.39 microg x kg(-1) x d(-1)). Meanwhile the results from probabilistic model were higher than the results of duplicate portion study (on the P95, the result of probabilistic model of Pb exposure in children was 11.08 microg x kg(-1) x d(-1), while the results of duplicate portion study was 5.75 microg x kg(-1) x d(-1)). On accuracy, the results from @Risk and the probabilistic model were highly consistent (on the P95, the result of probabilistic assessment of acephate diet exposure was 4.27 microg x kg(-1) x d(-1), while the results of duplicate portion study was 4.24 microg x kg(-1) x d(-1)), and the mean drift was of random distribution, the drift region varied from 0.05% to 11.9%.


CONCLUSIONS
The results computed by the software of Chinese dietary exposure evaluation model are reliable and reasonable, which is a meaningful step to improve the dietary exposure evaluation technique in China.
Liu
Pei
P
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Southeast University, Nanjing 210009, China. liupeiseu@126.com
Li
Jing-xin
JX
Sun
Jin-fang
JF
Xue
Jianping
J
Chen
Bing-wei
BW
Zhang
Hong
H
Yu
Xiao-jin
XJ
Wang
Can-nan
CN
Yuan
Bao-jun
BJ
Ma
Yong-jian
YJ
Tian
Zi-hua
ZH
D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D002681:China; D003257:Consumer Product Safety; D004032:Diet / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D012985:Software Design; D012986:Software Validation