Erosion of lizard diversity by climate change and altered thermal niches.
It is predicted that climate change will cause species extinctions and distributional shifts in coming decades, but data to validate these predictions are relatively scarce. Here, we compare recent and historical surveys for 48 Mexican lizard species at 200 sites. Since 1975, 12% of local populations have gone extinct. We verified physiological models of extinction risk with observed local extinctions and extended projections worldwide. Since 1975, we estimate that 4% of local populations have gone extinct worldwide, but by 2080 local extinctions are projected to reach 39% worldwide, and species extinctions may reach 20%. Global extinction projections were validated with local extinctions observed from 1975 to 2009 for regional biotas on four other continents, suggesting that lizards have already crossed a threshold for extinctions caused by climate change.
Sinervo
Barry
B
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95064, USA. lizardrps@gmail.com
Méndez-de-la-Cruz
Fausto
F
Miles
Donald B
DB
Heulin
Benoit
B
Bastiaans
Elizabeth
E
Villagrán-Santa Cruz
Maricela
M
Lara-Resendiz
Rafael
R
Martínez-Méndez
Norberto
N
Calderón-Espinosa
Martha Lucía
ML
Meza-Lázaro
Rubi Nelsi
RN
Gadsden
Héctor
H
Avila
Luciano Javier
LJ
Morando
Mariana
M
De la Riva
Ignacio J
IJ
Victoriano Sepulveda
Pedro
P
Rocha
Carlos Frederico Duarte
CF
Ibargüengoytía
Nora
N
Aguilar Puntriano
César
C
Massot
Manuel
M
Lepetz
Virginie
V
Oksanen
Tuula A
TA
Chapple
David G
DG
Bauer
Aaron M
AM
Branch
William R
WR
Clobert
Jean
J
Sites
Jack W
JW
D000064:Acclimatization; D000818:Animals; D044822:Biodiversity; D005075:Biological Evolution; D001831:Body Temperature; D057231:Climate Change; D017753:Ecosystem; D053476:Extinction, Biological; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D005843:Geography; D057232:Global Warming; D008116:Lizards / Q000235:genetics / Q000502:physiology; D008297:Male; D008800:Mexico; D008954:Models, Biological; D010802:Phylogeny; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012098:Reproduction; D012621:Seasons; D012641:Selection, Genetic; D013696:Temperature