title: A modelling approach to support dynamic decision-making in the control of FMD epidemics.
abstract: Most studies on control strategies for contagious diseases such as foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) evaluate pre-defined control strategies and imply static decision-making during epidemic control. Such a static approach contradicts the dynamic nature of the decision-making process during epidemic control. This paper presents an integrated epidemic-economic modelling approach to support dynamic decision-making in controlling FMD epidemics. This new modelling approach reflects ongoing uncertainty about epidemic growth during epidemic control and provides information required by a dynamic decision process. As demonstrated for a Dutch FMD-case, the modelling approach outperforms static evaluation of pre-fixed control strategies by: (1) providing guidance to decision-making during the entire control process; and (2) generating more realistic estimation of the costs of overreacting or underreacting in choosing control options.
authors.affiliation: Business Economics Group, Wageningen University, Hollandseweg 1, 6706 KN Wageningen, The Netherlands. Lan.Ge@wur.nl
authors.forename: Lan
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Ge
authors.forename: Monique C M
authors.initials: MC
authors.lastname: Mourits
authors.forename: Anders R
authors.initials: AR
authors.lastname: Kristensen
authors.forename: Ruud B M
authors.initials: RB
authors.lastname: Huirne
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D003140:Communicable Disease Control / Q000191:economics / Q000379:methods*; D003362:Cost-Benefit Analysis; D003657:Decision Making; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000662:veterinary; D005536:Foot-and-Mouth Disease / Q000191:economics / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control*; D006801:Humans; D008390:Markov Chains; D008954:Models, Biological; D009426:Netherlands / Q000453:epidemiology; D018570:Risk Assessment