title: Erosion of lizard diversity by climate change and altered thermal niches.
abstract: It is predicted that climate change will cause species extinctions and distributional shifts in coming decades, but data to validate these predictions are relatively scarce. Here, we compare recent and historical surveys for 48 Mexican lizard species at 200 sites. Since 1975, 12% of local populations have gone extinct. We verified physiological models of extinction risk with observed local extinctions and extended projections worldwide. Since 1975, we estimate that 4% of local populations have gone extinct worldwide, but by 2080 local extinctions are projected to reach 39% worldwide, and species extinctions may reach 20%. Global extinction projections were validated with local extinctions observed from 1975 to 2009 for regional biotas on four other continents, suggesting that lizards have already crossed a threshold for extinctions caused by climate change.
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95064, USA. lizardrps@gmail.com
authors.forename: Barry
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Sinervo
authors.forename: Fausto
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Méndez-de-la-Cruz
authors.forename: Donald B
authors.initials: DB
authors.lastname: Miles
authors.forename: Benoit
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Heulin
authors.forename: Elizabeth
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Bastiaans
authors.forename: Maricela
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Villagrán-Santa Cruz
authors.forename: Rafael
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Lara-Resendiz
authors.forename: Norberto
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Martínez-Méndez
authors.forename: Martha Lucía
authors.initials: ML
authors.lastname: Calderón-Espinosa
authors.forename: Rubi Nelsi
authors.initials: RN
authors.lastname: Meza-Lázaro
authors.forename: Héctor
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Gadsden
authors.forename: Luciano Javier
authors.initials: LJ
authors.lastname: Avila
authors.forename: Mariana
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Morando
authors.forename: Ignacio J
authors.initials: IJ
authors.lastname: De la Riva
authors.forename: Pedro
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Victoriano Sepulveda
authors.forename: Carlos Frederico Duarte
authors.initials: CF
authors.lastname: Rocha
authors.forename: Nora
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Ibargüengoytía
authors.forename: César
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Aguilar Puntriano
authors.forename: Manuel
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Massot
authors.forename: Virginie
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Lepetz
authors.forename: Tuula A
authors.initials: TA
authors.lastname: Oksanen
authors.forename: David G
authors.initials: DG
authors.lastname: Chapple
authors.forename: Aaron M
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Bauer
authors.forename: William R
authors.initials: WR
authors.lastname: Branch
authors.forename: Jean
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Clobert
authors.forename: Jack W
authors.initials: JW
authors.lastname: Sites
mesh_terms: D000064:Acclimatization; D000818:Animals; D044822:Biodiversity; D005075:Biological Evolution; D001831:Body Temperature; D057231:Climate Change; D017753:Ecosystem; D053476:Extinction, Biological; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D005843:Geography; D057232:Global Warming; D008116:Lizards / Q000235:genetics / Q000502:physiology; D008297:Male; D008800:Mexico; D008954:Models, Biological; D010802:Phylogeny; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012098:Reproduction; D012621:Seasons; D012641:Selection, Genetic; D013696:Temperature