title: The case for recurring outbreaks of a new type of infectious disease across all parts of the United Kingdom.
abstract: The higher than expected increase in medical emergency hospital admissions has been a matter of debate for many years. While regular growth of around 1.0-1.5% per annum may be expected due to demography recent evidence has emerged from England and Scotland that the increase over time appears to occur in concentrated spurts of growth at an interval of 3 to 6 years resulting in an approximate 10% step-like increase in certain medical and mental health related diagnoses. A characteristic time-related pattern in admissions then follows each step-increase. Outbreaks of a previously uncharacterised infectious disease have been proposed to account for this behaviour. Evidence is presented to show that simultaneous outbreak(s) across the remainder of the UK (Wales and Northern Ireland) are occurring with step-like increases in a similar range of diagnoses. The infectious agent is proposed to be a member of the group of persistent viruses and appears to show some form of collective switch to a dormant state around 3½ years after the initial outbreak. This behaviour accounts for the unique pattern of hospital admissions seen over time and is so strong that any underlying demographic trends are overwhelmed. This particular pattern of admissions will have uniquely profound financial effects upon the cost pressures experienced within the health services.
authors.affiliation: Healthcare Analysis and Forecasting, Honister Walk, Camberley, Surrey GU15 1RQ, UK. hcaf_rod@yahoo.co.uk
authors.forename: Rodney P
authors.initials: RP
authors.lastname: Jones
mesh_terms: D003141:Communicable Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology*; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D006113:United Kingdom / Q000453:epidemiology