Estimating the kernel parameters of premises-based stochastic models of farmed animal infectious disease epidemics using limited, incomplete, or ongoing data.
Three different estimators are presented for the types of parameters present in mathematical models of animal epidemics. The estimators make use of the data collected during an epidemic, which may be limited, incomplete, or under collection on an ongoing basis. When data are being collected on an ongoing basis, the estimated parameters can be used to evaluate putative control strategies. These estimators were tested using simulated epidemics based on a spatial, discrete-time, gravity-type, stochastic mathematical model containing two parameters. Target epidemics were simulated with the model and the three estimators were implemented using various combinations of collected data to independently determine the two parameters.
Rorres
Chris
C
Section of Epidemiology and Public Health, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Kennett Square, PA 19348, USA. rorres@vet.upenn.edu
Pelletier
Sky T K
ST
Keeling
Matt J
MJ
Smith
Gary
G
D000818:Animals; D000829:Animals, Domestic; D003141:Communicable Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000662:veterinary*; D019295:Computational Biology; D003625:Data Collection; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000662:veterinary*; D005843:Geography; D016013:Likelihood Functions; D015233:Models, Statistical; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011336:Probability; D013269:Stochastic Processes; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology
Science. 2001 May 11;292(5519):1155-60
11303090
Nature. 2003 Jan 9;421(6919):136-42
12508120
Prev Vet Med. 2008 Jun 15;85(1-2):107-24
18328581
Proc Biol Sci. 2005 Jun 22;272(1569):1195-202
16024382
Avian Dis. 2004 Sep;48(3):669-74
15529993
Prev Vet Med. 2006 Mar 16;73(4):297-314
16290298
Nature. 2006 Mar 2;440(7080):83-6
16511494
J R Soc Interface. 2005 Sep 22;2(4):295-307
16849187
Science. 2001 Oct 26;294(5543):813-7
11679661