title: Predictors of venous thromboembolism in patients with advanced common solid cancers.
abstract: There is uncertainty about risk heterogeneity for venous thromboembolism (VTE) in older patients with advanced cancer and whether patients can be stratified according to VTE risk. We performed a retrospective cohort study of the linked Medicare-Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results cancer registry in older patients with advanced cancer of lung, breast, colon, prostate, or pancreas diagnosed between 1995-1999. We used survival analysis with demographics, comorbidities, and tumor characteristics/treatment as independent variables. Outcome was VTE diagnosed at least one month after cancer diagnosis. VTE rate was highest in the first year (3.4%). Compared to prostate cancer (1.4 VTEs/100 person-years), there was marked variability in VTE risk (hazard ratio (HR) for male-colon cancer 3.73 (95% CI 2.1-6.62), female-colon cancer HR 6.6 (3.83-11.38), up to female-pancreas cancer HR 21.57 (12.21-38.09). Stage IV cancer and chemotherapy resulted in higher risk (HRs 1.75 (1.44-2.12) and 1.31 (1.0-1.57), resp.). Stratifying the cohort by cancer type and stage using recursive partitioning analysis yielded five groups of VTE rates (nonlocalized prostate cancer 1.4 VTEs/100 person-years, to nonlocalized pancreatic cancer 17.4 VTEs/100 patient-years). In a high-risk population with advanced cancer, substantial variability in VTE risk exists, with notable differences according to cancer type and stage.
authors.affiliation: Sections of General Internal Medicine, Primary Care Center, Yale University School of Medicine, 333 Cedar Street, P.O. Box 208025, New Haven, CT 06520, USA.
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authors.initials: HM
authors.lastname: Krumholz
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authors.initials: CP
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